Biggest Fantasy Impact: NFC Rookies

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: RB Tony Pollard

Dallas didn’t spend a ton of draft capital on offensive skill players.  The most significant skill player they invested in was Tony Pollard. Out of Memphis, Pollard is a patient runner that has great top end speed.  Pollard will initially contribute to the Cowboys as a kick and punt returner, but if he is given the opportunity, Pollard could be a nice change of pace back for Ezekiel Elliott.  Also, if your league gives points for return yards, Pollard definitely gets a bump.

Philadelphia Eagles: RB Miles Sanders

After acquiring Jordan Howard via trade, Philadelphia invested a 2nd round pick in Miles Sanders.  Sanders is the most talented and well rounded running back in this backfield. If Philadelphia can commit to Sanders and make him the primary running back, he can end up as a RB 2 as early as this season.  However, with Howard there and Philadelphia’s recent history, it’s hard to rely on the Eagles to give Sanders the desired workload this season.

Washington Redskins: QB Dwayne Haskins

I really like what Washington did in this draft.  Even though I am not a huge Dwayne Haskins fan, getting him at 15 without having to move up was great for Washington. Then they snag his OSU teammate Terry McLaurin and NC State standout Kelvin Harmon.  Haskins is easily the most talented QB in Washington. Even if he isn’t the Week 1 starter, Haskins should see the field this season and instantly add some juice to this offense.

New York Giants:  QB Daniel Jones

New York has been catching a lot of heat since they drafted Daniel Jones with the 6th overall pick in draft.  Jones looks the part of a franchise QB, but his film leaves a lot of the community hesitant to buy in. I really hope we are all wrong about Jones.  I would love for him to be able to come in after Eli Manning and be the starter for the New York Giants for the next 10 years. Regardless of what GM David Gettleman says, Jones should get the opportunity to play this year or next. If that is the case, it’s hard to imagine he would be worse for the fantasy options then Manning.  

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: TE Alize Mack

Considering Mack was drafted in the 7th round of the NFL Draft, this may be a bit of a stretch.  However, Mack does have some intriguing skills that could one day translate into fantasy production.  Mack has decent speed and works the seam pretty well. With time to develop under Sean Payton, Mack could maybe become a decent TE 2 for fantasy some day.  He shouldn’t be drafted in rookie draft, but could be a nice stash on your taxi squads.

Atlanta Falcons: iOL Chris Lindstrom and OT Kaleb McGary

Rather then trying to sell you all on Qadree Ollison and Marcus Green, I think it would be better to talk about the 2 first round lineman Atlanta drafted.  Getting Lindstrom and trading up for McGary shows us that Atlanta is going to continue trying to improve the run game. Both guys are very good run blockers and will help Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith out of the backfield.  The lack of significant draft capital spent at running back says that Atlanta still has faith in Freeman.

Carolina Panthers: QB Will Grier

I am a huge Will Grier fan and really like the fit for Carolina.  Obviously Grier won’t be an immediate starter, but Grier is instantly a premier backup QB.  And who knows, if Cam Newton’s shoulder is really messed up, Grier can do enough to keep the offensive weapons in Carolina fantasy relevant.  If Newton continues to take hits and misses significant time, I would feel very comfortable having Grier as a QB 2.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  WR Scott Miller

Similar to New Orleans, Tampa Bay spent most of the draft improving their defense.  The only offensive player they picked was Scott Miller in the 6th round. Miller is undersized, but has a ton of speed. He may be a nice field stretcher, but I don’t think he’s even worth a spot on a taxi squad.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: RB David Montgomery

I absolutely love this fit for both Montgomery and Chicago.  For whatever reason, I’ve heard way to many people saying that Montgomery is just a slightly better Jordan Howard.  Montgomery has more talent and is way more versatile than Howard. Montgomery is the best pure runner on this roster and is lined up to be the primary 2 down back for Chicago. Montgomery showed solid pass catching chops and will also be able to contribute in the passing game. Be excited people! Montgomery is going to be a stud in Chicago.

Minnesota Vikings: TE Irv Smith Jr.

See ya later Kyle Rudolph! Irv Smith is the new sheriff in Minnesota.  With Kyle Rudolph being owed over $7 million and no guaranteed money left, it is looking like Rudolph will be cut before the 2019 season starts.  If that is the case, Smith will have the opportunity to start producing right away. Smith is a big, athletic target that should be a great fit in this offense.  

Green Bay Packers: TE Jace Sternberger

Jace Sternberger is a staff favorite over here at the Fantasy Fanalysts.  He plays tight end, but in all honesty, he’s more like a big bodied wide receiver. Sternberger has reliable hands and shows a lot of promise as a route runner. He may not have a ton of production his rookie season, but Sternberger definitely has potential to become a low end TE1.  

Detroit Lions: TE TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson is the best tight end out of this class.  On top of being great as a receiver, Hockenson is a wonderful blocker.  Hockenson plays with the type of energy and attitude that everybody loves.  His ability to block will allow him to be on the field every down and start contributing right away. When ranking him for dynasty purposes, Hockenson is already a top 12 tight end.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams: RB Darrell Henderson

I was/am a huge Darrell Henderson fan.  He is extremely quick, is a capable pass catcher and had a ton of production while at Memphis.  I don’t think Los Angeles invests an early 3rd round pick on a running back unless they are at least slightly concerned with Todd Gurley’s knee.  I expect Henderson to take some of Gurley’s workload and have a ton of upside if Gurley were to ever miss time.

Seattle Seahawks: WR DK Metcalf

This was a great fit for DK Metcalf.  Russell Wilson is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL and is going to find ways to get Metcalf the ball.  Even if the Seattle offense is run heavy, Metcalf showed that he can produce on limited targets. Metcalf has one of the highest ceilings in this class.  If he can come close to reaching that ceiling, he is going to be a stud in this league.

San Francisco 49ers: WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel is possibly the most exciting prospect in this class when he has the ball in his hands.  He has good speed and is great after contact. With George Kittle and Dante Pettis returning, it’s hard to tell how much Samuel will produce right away.  If given the opportunity, Samuel has the talent to be a WR 2 for fantasy purposes.

Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray

As it was speculated for months, Arizona picked Kyler Murray with the 1st overall pick in the NFL draft.  On top of that, Arizona drafted Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler and KeeSean Johnson. Murray has the talent, the weapons and hopefully the scheme with Kliff Klingsbury to be a big time fantasy producer.  With his arm talent and athleticism, I don’t think it is to crazy to think that Murray could be a top 12 QB in 2019. This Arizona offense has the chance to be extremely fun.

Preeminent vs The Undistinguished: Ranking Rookie Quarterbacks

Welcome to my rookie rankings based on my recent article detailing differences between prospects drafted in round 1-5 versus 6-7+UDFA! I figured out an interesting way to not only help everyone draft more successful teams, but to know how to value positions a little better going forward.

To get the breakdown you can visit the previous article here which has the thread that started it all as well.

New Users get a FREE $3 Entry with promo Code “TOP2”

I’m Going to Let You Finish but First…

Before I begin, I’d like to add a little more detail into the success of the QB position. Quarterback has less success than any other fantasy skill position (QB, WR, TE, RB). The twitter thread discussed rounds 6-7/UDFAs but what about the other rounds?

In the last 10 years, only 9 quarterbacks not drafted in the first round have averaged at least 184 fantasy points per season, in standard quarterback scoring formats. 184 fantasy points is equal to the average QB24 finish in that same time span-meaning that just the following players have become fantasy football relevant without being drafted in the first round:

RoundName
2Andy Dalton
2Colin Kaepernick
2Derek Carr
2Geno Smith
3Russell Wilson
3Nick Foles
3Jacoby Brissett
4Dak Prescott
4Kirk Cousins

No quarterback drafted after round 4 has become fantasy football relevant over the past 10 seasons.

With that being said, it tempers my expectations when ranking my quarterbacks. This isn’t to say I’m counting them out or they’re not in a good spot, it’s just part of how I value said player.

Before I get into these ranks. I don’t do all-inclusive ranks because whenever you draft, it’s all about NEED. Best available at each position is how I do things. Sure, some drafts you just take best available, but it’s just common practice for me to rank everyone separate. Also, these ranks factor in landing spot, draft stock and depth chart.

The Preeminent Tier

RankRoundNameTeam
11Kyler MurrayCardinals
21Dwayne HaskinsRedskins
32Drew LockBroncos
4 1Daniel JonesGiants
53Will GrierPanthers
64Jarrett StidhamPatriots
73Ryan FinleyBengals

The Undistinguished Tier

86Easton StickChargers
96Clayton ThorsonEagles
106Gardner MinshewJaguars
116Trace McSorelyRavens
12UDFATyree JacksonBills
13UDFABrett RypienBroncos
14UDFAJordan Ta’amuRaiders
15UDFAJacob DolegalaBengals
16UDFADavid BloughBrowns
17UDFAKyle ShurmurChiefs
18UDFADevlin HodgesSteelers

You may not be drafting the “undistinguished” as starters but what I do see, is that guys like these will be great spot starts when the starters go down. Some of them will need a good matchup too, but like I said, “dont count them out”. As always with this tier, leave them on waivers or stash them for rainy day “break if nececssary” type situations.

Next Time On the Preeminent vs the Undistinguished….

We’ll be getting into tight ends!

Opportunity vs Ability: NFL Smarts in Rookie Drafts

We all know a kid sometime in our past who had all the talent in the world, but never made it. It could’ve been due to many different circumstances like money for college, more important responsibility at home, couldn’t stay out of trouble and so on. It still doesn’t change the fact that sometimes people just miss out.

In terms of the NFL, you have to add in the fact that every scouting department isn’t created equally and even if they were, they don’t make the choices. The ones choosing could be sold on someone who is just terrible compared to other guys, but there’s nothing we can do about it. The only things we can do is hedge those decisions for fantasy, which is what I’m here to help you do.

Opportunity’s Call

When dealing with fantasy football we like to have guys who have a huge opportunity share in the offense (or defense with IDP leagues). History shows we have to be the same with our rookie drafts.

Here’s why you should, for the most part, avoid guys (with your high picks) drafted in the 6-7 rounds and undrafted free agent pools:

In last 10 years, here are some of the hits for 6-7 rounders and UDFAs. From a recent conversation I had, I decided to change it from an all inclusive 100 PPR points or 6.25 ppg, to position specific. My baseline for success for each position was someone you’d be flexing or starting in most leagues.

Quarterbacks (3 year average of the QB24 = 184 points)

7 QBs have had success in rounds 6-7 with only 4 out of the 7 having done it more than once:

Tom Brady, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor and Matt Cassel

The UDFA to accomplish this feat:

Tony Romo, Case Keenum and Kurt Warner.

Wide Receivers (3 year average of the WR36 = 166 points)

6 receivers have done it with only 4 out of 6 having done it more than once:

Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon & Steve Johnson.

20 UDFAs did it with just 9 of them doing it more than once. The most notable:

Wes Welker, Doug Baldwin, Victor Cruz, Adam Thielen, and Willie Snead

Michelle Magdziuk @BallBLastEm made a great observation that cannot be over looked:

Running Backs (3 year average of the RB36 = 134 points)

9 running backs were a RB36 or better and only 6 of them did it more than once:

Rashad Jennings, Alfred Morris, Latavius Murray, Theo Riddick, Andre Ellington, and Justin Forsett

The undrafted accomplished this 22 times with 12 having continued success:

Fred Jackson, Isaiah Crowell, Adrian Foster, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead, C.J. Anderson, Joique Bell, LeGarette Blount, Chris Ivory, Ryan Grant, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Mike Tolbert

Tight Ends (3 year average of the TE24 = 93 points)

The TEs that have done it:

Charles Clay, Zach Miller, Brandon Myers, Mychal Rivera, and Ryan Griffin

The only undrafted free agents to do it:

Antonio Gates, Cameron Brate, Jack Doyle, Will Tye, Jake Ballard, Trey Burton, Larry Donnell, and Tim Wright

It’s simple, if the TEAM invests in them, WE have to invest accordingly. The caveat here is that you don’t forget about the late round/UDFA guys.

Allen Iverson’s Law: Talkin’ Bout Practice

One of the best practices is the utilization of your local taxi squad IF you have the room or regular roster if you have the spots. If through the draft process, you found a guy or guys whom you’ve just become enamored with, GO GET THEM. Don’t be dissuaded from getting your guys, just utilize your own draft capital for guys with true draft capital. This is because on average, for every position except quarterback, 1-2 guys per year emerge from that murky junkyard of 6-7 rounders and undrafted free agents to become PPR relevant at least once. Some of these guys end up with long term success, A LOT don’t.

A Rule of Thumb:

There is a much bigger area for “boom-bust” in 6-7/udfa areas than rounds 1-5.

Which is why I believe that these guys are sometimes better served for waivers later on. If they don’t end up free agents in your league, it’s ok. Let someone hold onto your asset for you until it’s time to obtain. Once that player starts tracking for success, you have to act before the price raises or otherwise you over pay in a trade vs making that asset a throw in for an otherwise “underwhelming” trade in the eyes of everyone but you. It’s all about timing. The trick is to not go in to negotiations showing your hand and you’ll be just fine.

Another good practice is to grab these guys when an injury happens to guys ahead of them on the depth chart. This is generally a key time where they can begin to be able to garner more snap counts (time on the field) if they perform well enough.

Going Forward

My pinned thread from Twitter and this article are just a warm-up for a series of articles and rankings so, be on the lookout for those, which will come directly after this.

A small hint to my ranking content-they will be different than you’ve seen before! Hopefully this has helped you prepare for your rookie drafts, stay tuned!

Biggest Fantasy Football Impact Pick: AFC

Now that the draft is over, we finally have landing spots for some of our favorite rookies! Today we’re going to go through each AFC team to find each rookie who will have the biggest impact when it comes to fantasy. Some will have instant impact, some will have small impact, while some will have sneaky impact. Let’s get started!

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Marquise Brown, WR

Brown’s ability to separate from defenders with his sheer athleticism (wont be winning with size) will make him a great weapon for Lamar Jackson. Look for him to be a better John Brown and when Jackson looks to throw, he’ll have a very dependable target to throw to. Brown makes defenses have to respect his ability and opens it up for Jackson and Mark Ingram.

Cincinnati Bengals: The RBs

They drafted (albeit 6th rounders) Rodney Anderson and Traveon Williams while Mark Walton was waived, so I believe this was a depth move with sleeper potential. I have a feeling that one of these guys could end up working into both Bernard and/or Mixon’s workload. This could kill off some production and cause these guys to drop in value as well.

Cleveland Browns: The Defense

Cleveland really hit this draft for defense and it’s ok because they are absolutely well off in the offensive department. With that being said, Cleveland really bolstered their defense and gave their team a chance to have a great D/ST (yes I play in leagues that still use this position). With their team already in the bottom 5, the only way is up!

Pittsburgh Steelers: Diontae Johnson, WR

Already being anointed as the new #84, Diontae Johnson definitely has the ability and draft stock to come in and contribute immediately. He gives the Steelers a piece for the future alongside Juju and Washington. Yes Moncrief is there, but he’ll be losing snaps to this kid before long. He’s great against the press and should be being drafted in dynasty for sure. He’s definitely got sleeper impact.

AFC South

Houston Texans: Kahale Warring, TE

Warring did himself a world of justice throughout the draft process and ended up going very high in a draft thick with TE talent. With the team already having a few tight ends on the roster already, this was a head-scratcher. With his draft stock, it definitely means he’s here to stay and others will be waived. As far as fantasy goes, he just makes this offense a TE by committee further pushing us away from Houston TEs.

Indianapolis Colts: Parris Campbell, WR

This is one of the best places he could go. Not much competition for WR2, Campbell comes in as an immediate contributor. He should eventually be able to sully Funchess’ value toward mid-late season (if it takes that long). He also makes Luck an even more enticing selection with what he can accomplish in the slot as well as outside (contrary to popular belief).

Jacksonville Jaguars: Josh Oliver, TE

Definitely a project, but I project him as the TE1 in Jacksonville eventually. Geoff Swaim ain’t it and Josh Oliver can be on par with the top TEs in this class if he can learn how to block better. Could be the AFC’s Jason Witten; good across the middle of the field and no (and I mean no) high point ability whatsoever.

Tennessee Titans: AJ Brown, WR

A bit of a scary landing spot given who his QB is, AJ Brown impacts both Mariota and Corey Davis. The Titans don’t really have anybody outside of Davis who are difference makers at the level of AJ. Delanie was in the past, but father time is undefeated and that injury at his age will have it’s effects. Corey Davis will no longer have so much focused on him to stop him which boosts his value. The only thing is hoping that Mariota (like Lamar Jackson) can throw the ball a little more next season.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Dawson Knox, TE

I’m going to try and contain myself here, but I believe he could end up top 2 in this draft at the position. Buffalo just got a great weapon for Josh Allen who is an upgrade from Croom and will eventually supplant Kroft. With TEs, the rule is to wait and wait we shall. Don’t be filled with regret for not drafting him. He’s got draft stock, a clear path to start and a young QB to grow with. He’s going to be one of the best parts of this offense in a few years, just watch.

Miami Dolphins: Josh Rosen, QB

Josh isn’t a rookie, but was the best offensive asset they acquired in the draft. Still young and talented, he goes into a situation where he’s got a chance to take the keys and go. He (and Fitzpatrick when he plays) are an immediate boost for the receivers in Miami which excites me even more for my Gesicki shares.

New England Patriots: N’Keal Harry, WR

I was/am still not high on the kid after studying his game tape, but he will definitely produce/be given the opportunity to produce. Harry represents something the Pats haven’t done since 1996, draft a WR in the 1st round. I see him having the same success that Josh Gordon was having, but I don’t expect it to be immediate. I expect it to really start to show in year 2.

New York Jets: Trevon Wesco, TE

No, he’s not the guy you’re drafting in rookie drafts, he’s the guy who excites you for the sake of Darnold and Lev Bell. With the Jets already having drafted Chris Herndon in the same round last year, they brought in a TE who is much better at all the blocking aspects. Keep an eye out for his developing catching ability, could surprise in his production there which could put Herndon behind him on the depth chart. However, don’t expect anything for a few years. He’s more of a project who will possibly blossom in years 4-5.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: Noah Fant, TE

Already announced the starter, Fant has a chance to be the most productive rookie TE this year. I believe he’ll get the opportunities early and often purely because of his skill as a receiver. I don’t, however, think he’ll be a top TE overall this year. It’s hard for rookies to come by production at this position early on in their careers. With Fant, it’ll be no different unless Manny Sanders, Daesean Hamilton and Courtland Sutton suffer significant injuries reminiscent of the 2017 Giants with Engram.

Kansas City Chiefs: Mecole Hardman, WR

The Chiefs went out and got their possible replacement speedster for the same role of Tyreek Hill. If Hill is waived, suspended or both, Hardman will step into that role. I don’t expect the production right away, but man will he have breakaway plays that will drop your jaw. He essentially could be a less consistent Hill. My notes on him from film are filled with the words FAST in all capital letters so expect an electric player. He’s also good at finding an assignment to block which will keep him on the field a little more.

Oakland Raiders: Josh Jacobs, RB

He WAS my RB2 coming into the draft behind David Montgomery, but now his situation has “vaulted” him into first place. He’s a lead back and he’ll get the chance to prove that with Crowell going down for the season. The Doug Martin signing is a depth play while Jalen Richard shouldn’t see too much 3rd down work over Jacobs, who can catch well. Chris Warren is great, but doesn’t have the draft stock to give me faith that he’ll do anything but be a backup. Jacobs has the stock, the ability and the full faith of the team, what more could you want?

LA Chargers: Defense…Again

For those of you who play with D/STs in your lineups, rejoice, for this is what you want in your drafts. A team that was already great in terms of defense got better by loading up on defensive players like Jerry Tillery and Nasir Adderley. I can’t really say Easton Stick here because 5th round QBs have a nauseating success rate. With Rivers looking to re-up like Big Ben did for at least 3 more years, I’d say he ends up a gadgety (rumors of Taysom Hill usage) 3rd stringer behind Tyrod.

Josh Jacobs: One of the Many Options for RB1

Josh Jacobs (5’10”, 220) Running Back, Alabama
18.5 Aggregate Score (3.5 Star Prospect)

Josh Jacobs has risen to the top of a running back class that lacked a stud type of guy. Jacobs has had an interesting road but has risen to the top of the Alabama RB depth chart which means he certainly has NFL level talent. A smooth runner and a hands catcher, there is a lot to like in Jacobs physical and film profile. His stats remain a red flag, but there are many points that can explain the issues that many have there. Jacobs will remain polarizing until he is drafted in the first or second round of the NFL draft which seems to be the consensus on his value.  A first round draft pedigree would make it hard to argue against Jacobs as the first running back off the board in your rookie drafts.

College Production

As I alluded to, Jacobs college production left something to be desired. With only 887 total yards in his junior season and only 640 of those on the ground, he didn’t show much to say he can be a workhorse. He never put up big numbers across an entire season. He didn’t even put up many hundred yard games. Was it due to scheme, competition, game script? It was most likely a combination of reasons, but it remains a valid concern especially since we didn’t see many big plays from him throughout his college career.

Speed & Agility: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

Jacobs is plenty fast despite a 4.6 40 at his pro day. He looks significantly faster than that on tape and I am not concerned about his long speed as that is not what his game is predicated on. Jacobs running style is very smooth and his ability to make defenders miss in space is a plus trait as well.

Receiving Ability: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

Jacobs caught well over 1 ball a game in college which is plenty to show his receiving chops in an Alabama offense that is historically run heavy. Even with Tua last year, Jacobs had to compete with Jerry Jeudy and a bevy of other talented pass catchers for those targets. He was also more efficient after the catch than he was on the ground.

Vision: Aggregate Score: 3.5 (Personal Score: 3)

I do not feel this is a major strength for Jacobs. Afforded a lot of big holes by one of the best offensive lines in the country and working in conjunction with the newly revitalized passing game that kept defenses as honest as they’ve had to be against Bama in 25 years or more, he still did not find a way to create high efficiency yardage with his touches.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

Not a strength of any lead backs game, but he can hold his own in pass protection. Will he succeed against NFL pass rushers? No. But he can chip and block in play action just fine.

Strength: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

Jacobs isn’t the strongest back in this class, but he runs low and strong. He is more likely to hit you than to put forth a lot of effort to make you miss. He would rather go through than around. He does keep his balance well and can bounce off tacklers in the open and around the line of scrimmage.

Conclusion: Early to Mid 1st Round Pick

Jacobs is a talented player, there is no doubt about that. Whether he can be a three down workhorse at the NFL level is the question for me. Is Jacobs a high risk pick?  No, especially not in a draft class with less running back talent than normal. My ideal landing spot for Jacobs though, would be somewhere with a veteran running back that can help take some of that load early in the season and really make way for him to shine down the stretch. He could be absolutely explosive in an Alvin Kamara-Mark Ingram type situation. Pre-draft he sits around the 1.07 or 1.08 for me. Landing spot could bring him into the top 3 or 4, but it is more likely I will be targeting him in the middle of the first.

TJ Hockenson: Mr. I Can Do It All at Tight End

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

TJ Hockenson (6’5”, 243) Tight End, Iowa

19.3 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

TJ Hockenson has been a huge riser as this class has developed. Overshadowed in Devy circles by his teammate Noah Fant, he has not been household name, until now. Hockenson plays the tight end position like it should be played. He does the dirty work in the trenches at a high level and he showcases route running and pass catching ability at all levels of the field. He is also an underrated athlete, again overshadowed by Fant who just happens to be a freak. He will surprise some at the combine likely putting up solid to strong numbers across the board. He is a top 2 tight end in this class in both the NFL and fantasy. So which is it it, 1 or 2?

College Production

Tight end production in college is not a pretty thing to look at, but the fact that he and Fant  both produced at the level they did in the same offense is remarkable. Hockenson put up 49 receptions for 760 yards and 6 scores in his sophomore year before declaring for the draft. He caught 10 more balls for 140 more yards than Fant. Both of them outproduced George Kittle who graduated as Hockenson came on campus. Hock also averaged over 15 yards per catch. This is a big time stat especially for a guy who has been labeled by some (incorrectly) as average athletically. All this to say, that while the numbers don’t jump of the page, this is still an impressive stat line. Iowa has a knack for churning out tight end talent and these two are no different.

Speed & Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 3.6 (Personal Score: 4)

I will continue to harp on the fact that Hockenson is an underrated athlete. He creates space and can outrun linebackers no problem. Combine this with his route running and he will have no issue getting open at the next level. One area he can continue to work on is exploding out of the block.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 3.6 (Personal Score: 4)

Hockenson is a strong route runner. Quick feet and an ability to sell head fakes and quick twitches allow him to set up defenders and separate at a high level. He did often line up against linebackers and safeties though which will be a much taller task at the NFL level where these players can recover much easier.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 4.6 (Personal Score: 5)

Hock has made a name for himself as one of the best blockers in this class. This really makes him the total package as a tight end prospect and it will be big in getting and keeping him on the field early in his career. He blocks with an aggressiveness and power that is great to see for a guy who is only listed on 243 lbs.

Handwork and Positioning: Aggregate Score: 3.6 (Personal Score: 4)

Hockenson continues the theme of well rounded with good scores here as well. A strong hands catcher with a knack for using his considerable size to his advantage, he will succeed in contested situations against linebackers and safeties early and often.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 3.6 (Personal Score: 4)

Basically the only reason reason I didn’t personally give him a 5 in athleticism is that Noah Fant is absurd. Hockenson made some noise at the combine with big time explosive numbers in the jumps and great numbers in the agility drills. The 4.7 forty isn’t great but that is plenty of speed for a tight end who has big time pluses across the rest of the board.

Conclusion: Mid 1st Round Target

I have no fear drafting TJ in the 1st round of your rookie drafts. In superflex, he should probably go in the late 1st. He may take some time to reach his full potential, but the lack of tight end talent in the NFL makes him a worthwhile 1st rounder for any team in need of a tight end. An interesting side note is that tight ends like OJ Howard and David Njoku have held their value well even after some lackluster seasons. While I still have him ranked behind Fant, he could easily have an argument to be the first tight end off the board when landing spots are assigned.

The Final 2019 NFL Mock Draft: 3rd Round

The Fanalysts have been grinding draft tape, monitoring team needs, and mock drafting since December. This 7-part mock-draft is one continuous mock draft and the our final one of the season for us. We will be releasing one article per day in the week leading up to the 2019 NFL Draft.

This is a summary of the 3rd Round of our mock draft for the 2019 NFL Draft. Below are links all other rounds of our final mock for the 2019 NFL Draft:

2019 NFL Draft 7th Round Mock
2019 NFL Draft 6th Round Mock
2019 NFL Draft 5th Round Mock 2019 NFL Draft 4th Round Mock

For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out our 2019 Rookie Database

PickTeamPlayer
65Arizona CardinalsEmmanuel Hall, WR, Missouri
66Pittsburgh SteelersAmani Hooker, S, Iowa
67San Francisco 49ersRiley Ridley, WR, Georgia
68New York JetsRoss Pierschbacher, iOL, Alabama
69Jacksonville JaguarsTrayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M
70Tampa Bay BuccaneersDavid Long, CB, Michigan

It’s hard for me to pick just one pick from this group that stands out because they all do. Emmanuel Hall should be a welcome addition to the offensive arsenal of Arizona. The Steelers get a nice upgrade at safety with Amani Hooker. The 49ers have questions at wide receiver and Riley Ridley should answer those questions. The Jets want to protect Sam Darnold and Ross Pierschbacher does just that. If you are worried about Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville then Trayveon Williams is a perfect compliment/insurance policy. The Bucs get a corner in David Long who I believe is a tremendous value in the 3rd round.

This was a very solid start to the 3rd round and shows just how much value can be had beyond rounds 1 and 2. This is the year for your team to have as many picks as possible because good to great players will be falling throughout the draft due to tremendous depth.

PickTeamPlayer
71Denver BroncosDax Raymond, TE, Utah State
72Cincinnati BengalsKaleb McGary, OT, Washington
73New England PatriotsKahale Warring, TE, SDSU
74Buffalo BillsJosh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
75Green Bay PackersBlake Cashman, LB, Minnesota
76Washington RedskinsElgton Jenkins, iOL, Ole Miss

A couple of tight ends off the board to teams with a need at the position. I like Dax Raymond a lot and feel as if he could be a great value for Denver. Kahale Warring certainly has the tools to be a solid starter in New England but he’ll have some Gronk sized shoes to fill.

Josh Jacobs is a very interesting pick to me. First of all, he’s not going in the 3rd round. This is how our guys feel about Josh Jacobs but he’s likely going higher than this. The landing spot, Buffalo, has a couple of elder statesmen in Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy along with the recently signed TJ Yeldon. With the ages of Gore and McCoy along with the brief terms of Yeldon’s contract (2 years), I see Jacobs as a very nice developmental pick for Buffalo.

PickTeamPlayer
77Carolina PanthersDaniel Jones, QB, Duke
78Miami DolphinsJaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Tech
79Atlanta FalconsRock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple
80Cleveland BrownsBobby Okereke, LB, Stanford
81Minnesota VikingsRenell Wren, iDL, Arizona State
82Tennessee TitansWill Grier, QB, West Virginia

The two quarterbacks taken from picks 77-82 stand out to me. Daniel Jones to Carolina is notable because it stands as a reminder of where we’re at with QB Cam Newton. As the person who drafted Jones to Carolina, I’m worried about Cam big time. I don’t think Carolina has done a good enough job investing in the O-Line and they will need an insurance policy in case Cam goes down.

I have never been a fan of Marcus Mariota or Ryan Tannehill. I think it’s time for the Titans to think about moving on and Will Grier is a perfect replacement. He should see playing time this season considering how injury prone both Mariota and Tannehill are. Small shoutout to the Falcons taking Rock Ya-Sin. The corner out of Temple could slot in right away at one of the outer corner spots and start day 1.

PickTeamPlayer
83Pittsburgh SteelersUgochukwu Amandi, S, Oregon
84Seattle SeahawksD’Andre Walker, EDGE, Georgia
85Baltimore RavensLJ Collier, EDGE, TCU
86Houston TexansJoejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt
87Chicago BearsDavid Edwards, OT, Wisonsin
88Detroit LionsTerry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State

I’ll start with the Steelers taking yet another safety. I have been adamant about the Steelers needing secondary depth so I am totally ok with that pick. If Seattle does indeed trade Frank Clark then they will need help along the defensive line and D’Andre Walker is that help.

The Bears have no picks until pick 87 and they go…Tackle. The Bears don’t have many holes but if they make their fans wait that long just to take a tackle then there will be some eye rolling. David Edwards is a very solid pick however and should compete for playing time immediately or at the very least be a nice depth option. LOVE Terry McLaurin to Detroit. There’s the replacement for Golden Tate.

PickTeamPlayer
89Indianapolis ColtsOshane Ximines, EDGE, Old Diminion
90Dallas CowboysDarnell Savage, S, Maryland
91Los Angeles ChargersBobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma
92Kansas City ChiefsJoe Giles-Harris, LB, Duke

I’m a fan of all 4 picks here towards the back end of round 3. Oshane Ximines should add nicely to the depth of the Colts defensive line. I believe Cowboys fans will do a literal back flip if they are able to land Safety Darnell Savage. That would be a lethal addition to that secondary here in round 3. The Chargers are in need of O-Line help and they address it with Bobby Evans out of Oklahoma. The Chiefs need as much defensive help as they can get so no gripes from me about taking a linebacker.

PickTeamPlayer
93New York JetsJamel Dean, CB, Auburn
94Los Angeles RamsDru Samia, iOL, Oklahoma
95New York GiantsLonnie Johnson, CB, Kentucky
96Washington RedskinsWyatt Ray, EDGE, Boston College

I’ll start with the Jets addressing corner and they have to hope Dean out of Auburn develops into a starter because their corner depth is atrocious. Dru Samia added to the Rams’ offensive line is almost not even fair. My favorite pick in all of round 3 could quite possibly be Lonnie Johnson to the Giants at 95. That is tremendous value and he should compete for playing time right away.

That wraps up round 3 of our Final 2019 NFL Mock Draft. Be on the lookout for Round 2 dropping tomorrow and be sure to comment down below on what you think about Round 3!

The Final 2019 NFL Draft Mock: Round 5

The Fanalysts have been grinding draft tape, monitoring team needs, and mock drafting since December. This 7-part mock-draft is one continuous mock draft and the final one of the season for us. We will be releasing one article per day in the week leading up to the 2019 NFL Draft.

This is a summary of the 5th Round of our mock draft for the 2019 NFL Draft. Below are links to the previous rounds of the mock:

2019 NFL Draft 7th Round Mock

2019 NFL Draft 6th Round Mock

For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out our 2019 Rookie Database

Pick Team Player
139Arizona CardinalsKris Boyd, CB, Texas
140Oakland RaidersDemarcus Christmas, iDL,
Florida State
141Pittsburgh SteelersDrew Sample, TE, Washington
142New York GiantsTre Watson, LB, Maryland
143New York GiantsAnthony Johnson, WR, Buffalo
144Cleveland BrownsMike Edwards, S, Kentucky
145Tampa Bay Buccaneers Bruce Anderson, RB, NDSU

With pick 145 a more unknown but very good running back-Bruce Anderson, goes to a team where there is no true starter. Along with the draft capital, he could possibly beat out both Peyton Barber and Ronald Jones for the lion-share of what would end up a committee in Tampa Bay. Here’s some lovely footage for those who don’t know:

PickTeamPlayer
146Detroit LionsMark Fields, CB, Clemson
147Buffalo BillsPenny Hart, WR, Georgia State
148Denver BroncosJahlani Tavai, LB, Hawaii
149Cincinnati BengalsLamont Gaillard, iOL, Georgia
150Green Bay PackersJaquan Johnson, S, Miami
151Miami DolphinsMalik Carney, EDGE, North Carolina
152Atlanta FalconsBobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma

For the Penny Hart truthers, this isn’t what they want to see with Cole Beasley in town. However, that can also be a good thing because it’ll give him time to get better/stronger, which he’ll need at his size.

PickTeamPlayer
153Washington RedskinsJarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn
154Carolina PanthersBraden Smith, G, Auburn
155Cleveland BrownsSheldrick Redwine, S, Miami
156Denver BroncosRyan Bates, iOL, Penn State
157Tennessee TitansAnthony Ratliff-Williams, WR, N.Carolina
158Buffalo BillsChris Slayton, DT, Syracuse
159Seattle SeahawksMichael Jackson, CB, Miami

Jarrett Stidham is one of my favorite QBs in the draft; he falls into my top 10 at the position. Many have him pegged with the same issues as Haskins but I beg to differ. He looks good outside of the pocket in a lot of aspects. There’s nothing more I like than a prospect that can still thrive when play breaks down.

PickTeamPlayer
160Baltimore RavensPhil Haynes, iOL, Wake Forest
161Houston TexansIsaac Nauta, TE, GeorgiaG
162Chicago BearsOli Udoh, OT, Elon
163Philadelphia EaglesJalen Jelks, EDGE, Oregon
164Indianapolis ColtsMecole Hardman, WR, Georgia
165Dallas CowboysMaxx Crosby, EDGE, Eastern Michigan
166Los Angeles ChargersTe’Veon Coney, LB, Notre Dame

Hardman is fast and his tape shows that. He’s one of those prospects that has the ability to take the top off. What’s even better is his intangibles. When he’s not involved in a play, he will find a player to block every time. The Colts got a good one here.

PickTeamPlayer
167Kansas CityGreg Dortch, WR, Wake Forest
168New OrleansHunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson
169Los Angeles RamsLil’Jordan Humphrey, WR, Texas
170Cleveland BrownsMax Scharping, OT, Northern Illinois
171New York GiantsJimmy Moreland, CB, JMU
172Atlanta FalconsBen Burr-Kirven, LB, Washington
173WashingtonHamp Cheevers, CB, BC

One of the most unique names in the draft and unique prospects, Lil’ Jordan Humphrey doesn’t have “the speed gene” and he doesn’t need to. He’s a big bodied slot who can work outside at times but not full time and that’s where he makes his hay. Running him and Kupp across the middle could be mismatch city all day and I’m here for it.

The Biggest NFL Draft Mistake for Every Team: Picks 23-32 + CHI, NO, DAL, CLE

The 2019 NFL Draft is quickly approaching and mock drafts are likely flooding your twitter timelines. Instead, I want to take a different approach in this 3 part series: what should you favorite team NOT do?

Below is what I believe to be the biggest mistake each team can make on Day 1 (or with their first pick) of the 2019 NFL Draft.

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You can see my biggest mistakes for picks 1-10 here

You can see my biggest mistakes for picks 11-22 here

Baltimore Ravens (22nd Overall Pick): Waiting for a Wide Receiver

The Ravens wide receiving corps. is depleted; with Willie Snead, Jordan Lasley, Jaleel Scott, and Andre Roberts currently headlining the position. The Ravens don’t pick in the 2nd round-so if they don’t get a playmaking wideout early, they likely won’t get one who can make an immediate impact on their roster.

AJ Brown, Kelvin Harmon, N’Keal Harry, and Hakeem Butler could all have high impact roles early for Harbaugh and his young quarterback.

Houston Texans (23rd Overall Pick): Even Considering not Taking and Offensive Linemen

Houston had perhaps the worst offensive line play last season, for a team that otherwise has a dynamic offense. The bigger names (Williams, Ford, Taylor) might go earlier than 23, but Dillard is likely to be available and the Texans cannot pass on their chance for a franchise changing tackle.

Philadelphia Eagles (25th Overall Pick): Drafting a Running Back (aka Josh Jacobs) Early

Once the Eagles traded for Jordan Howard it completely wiped Josh Jacobs off my board for them. Howard, paired with Adams and Sproles, adds enough consistency, goal line presence, and big play potential for Philadelphia’s run-first offense.

Instead, look for the Eagles to focus on secondary support or a young offensive lineman to rotate in for 2019 and replace the aging Jason Peters.

Indianapolis Colts (26th Overall Pick): Forgetting to Show Up

The Colts continue to win the 2018 NFL Draft-their 34th overall pick (obtained in the Sam Darnold trade) gives them a lot of flexibility at the back end of the first. They have two picks to grab a defensive tackle and a play making wideout (in that order).

Their roster, overall, is solid and young. They have a lot of luxury in this draft and can go in a lot of directions and make their fan base happy.

Los Angeles Chargers (28th Overall Pick): Keeping this Pick over Josh Rosen

The Chargers also have a very well-rounded and deep roster. They could certainly take a defensive tackle with this pick, like Simmons or Tillery, but they would be better served by looking to the future. Reuniting the UCLA star with his fan base as a future successor to Phillip Rivers makes a lot of sense. It gives the Chargers a lot term plan to contend, with the quarterback many considered to be the best amongst a loaded draft class. It also gets Rosen out of a toxic situation in Arizona and a place where he can grow, compete, and learn-fitting his tenacious personality.

Reports suggest that the Chargers would be in the driver’s seat for Rosen, if the Cardinals are indeed shopping him. With just a 2nd round pick and New England’s 32nd overall pick being rumored to be potentially on the table, the Chargers have the ability to make this deal happen.  

Kansas City Chiefs (29th Overall Pick): Ignoring the Defense

Kansas City has 8 picks in the 2019 NFL Draft, and I would be 100% okay if they used all 8 of those on a defense that held them back from a Super Bowl appearance in 2018. They have gaps on the defensive line, in their linebacker corps., and in their secondary. Look for them to start by trying to find a replacement for Eric Berry and grab a free safety to play opposite of Tyrann Mathieu.

Los Angeles Rams (31st Overall Pick): Not Thinking Long-Term

The revitalized Rams have made a pattern out of making splashy short-term free agent signings-especially on their defense. Instead of banking on a Nadakam Suh, Marcus Peters, or Eric Weddle, they need to invest in young talent. In particular, they could benefit from targeting help in their secondary, interior linebacker, or EDGE.

New England Patriots (32nd Overall Pick): Trading Back

The terms “NFL Draft”, “mistake”, and “Bill Bellicheck” don’t really go together, but I will give this an honest try anyways. New England has 12 total picks in the 2019 NFL Draft-making it questionable that the perennial trade back partner would be open for that business. Instead, the Pats should be looking to move up and be aggressive in finding an offensive playmaker that could give Tom Brady a jolt of energy that can’t be found in any vegetable smoothie.

Cleveland Browns (49th Overall Pick): Being Content with OBJ

The Browns already won the 2019 NFL Draft by fleecing the New York Giants to obtain Odell Beckham Jr.; however, it would be a mistake for them to stop being aggressive there. Despite not having the 17th overall pick the Browns still have 8 total selections.

Don’t be surprised if Dorsey moves up in the draft to take a sliding cornerback (Greedy Williams) or safety (Adderley, Gardner-Johnson), or even Devin Bush.

Dallas Cowboys (58th Overall Pick): Failing to Secure a Franchise Tight End

Dallas’ tight end situation is so bad they literally chose to bring a 36-year-old out of retirement to ensure some stability at the position. Dallas is in a perfect position to snag Jace Sternberger, who has a huge NFL ceiling, at 58th overall. They also could try to move up to get in on the Fant and Smith Jr. sweepstakes.

New Orleans Saints (62nd Overall Pick): Passing on Value at Wide Receiver

The Saints offense runs through Michael Thomas, but Drew Brees is going to need more support than the eclectic group of supporting wideouts currently on the roster. Tre’Quan Smith remains very raw, Tedd Ginn remains very one-dimensional, and will someone please tell me what happened to Cam Meredith’s career?

They have other needs, like Tight End and offensive line depth, but if a player like Deebo Samuel or Kelvin Harmon slip to them they would be making a big mistake by passing on them.

Chicago Bears (88th Overall Pick): Being Okay with their Running Backs

The Bears will be the last team to head to the podium and won’t do so until late Friday night. They have just 5 picks in the 2019 NFL Draft, and only 3 of them are before the 7th round. The Bears, though, have a fantastic roster mixed with veteran leadership, athleticism, and youth. What remains a giant question mark for their offensive-minded head coach, though, is what is happening at the running back position.

Tarik Cohen has a niche skillset and I’m far from sold on Mike Davis being anything more than a change of pace back. There is a lot of running back depth in this draft class, though, and they will likely be able to choose from a slew of potential playmakers at either 84 or 127. Rodney Anderson, Damien Harris, Alex Barnes, and Alexander Mattison will all likely be available for them.

The Final 2019 NFL Draft Mock: Round 7

The Fanalysts have been grinding draft tape, monitoring team needs, and mock drafting since December. This 7-part mock-draft is one continuous mock draft and the our final one of the season for us. We will be releasing one article per day in the week leading up to the 2019 NFL Draft.

This is a summary of the 7th Round of our mock draft for the 2019 NFL Draft. Over the course of the next 6 days we will release one round, working backwards, until all 254 of our selections are revealed prior to the 2019 NFL Draft.

For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out the 48 Report: our 2019 Rookie Database

PickTeamPlayer
215Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
David Blough, QB, Purdue
216Kansas CityJonathan Ledbetter, EDGE, Georgia
217New York JetsCarl Granderson, EDGE, Wyoming
218Oakland RaidersGardner Minshew, QB, Washington State
219Pittsburgh SteelersDakota Allen, LB, Texas Tech
220Houston TexansGarrett Brumfield, iOL, LSU
221Cleveland BrownsBunchy Stallings, iOL, Kentucky

The seventh round is filled with notable names-this draft class is not short of recognizable talent at any depth. In particular, this round is filled with quarterbacks who have impressed either over the course of their collegiate careers, or during the NFL Draft Process.

David Blough was a leader for the Boilermakers, and performed well during the Shrine Game. Blough offers the Boilermakers a developmental prospect that much be more effective with a clipboard in his hand than he would be with a football.

The Raiders get the fiery Garner Minshew-a true gamer that Jon Gruden can fall in love with. Minshew has a high ceiling, but if nothing else he will serve as a great scout team asset, and developmental project for Gruden and Mayock.

PickTeamPlayer
222Chicago BearsShareef Miller, EDGE, Penn State
223Cincinnati BengalsJoshua Miles, OT, Morgan State
224Detroit LionsB.J. Blunt, S, McNeese State
225Buffalo BillsMitch Hyatt, OT, Clemson
226Green Bay PackersRyan Finley, QB, NC State
227WashingtonAshton Dulin, WR, Malone College
228Buffalo BillsTrace McSorely, QB, Penn State
229Detroit LionsMyles Gaskin, RB, Washington

It takes 227 picks, but finally Ashton Dulin, the small school DII phenom, is selected by the same Washington squad that took draft twitter favorite Trey Quinn to end last year’s draft. Dulin instantly joins a competitive wide receiver competition that also includes a big name wideout prospect who was taken in the first round (tune in to see who went at 15th overall).

In a move that sure to frustrate fantasy football players, the Lions take Myles Gaskin, the highly productive four year starter from Washington, with their final selection in the 2019 NFL Draft. Gaskin can serve as a great change of pace back for Kerryon Johnson-whom the coaching staff has already suggestion will be on a “pitch count” for the 2019 season.

PickTeamPlayer
230Atlanta FalconsEaston Stick, QB, North Dakota State
231New Orleans Tony Pollard, RB, Memphis
232New York GiantsJordan Brailford, EDGE, Oklahoma State
233Miami DolphinsMarvell Tell, S, USC
234Miami DolphinsJovon Durante, WR, FAU
235Oakland RaidersRyan Davis, WR, Auburn
236Jacksonville JaguarsCeCe Jefferson, EDGE, Florida
237Denver BroncosJakobi Meyers, WR, NC State

Tony Pollard is the lesser known back from Memphis in the 2019 NFL Draft (see: Darrell Henderson). Pollard was a staple of the Tigers’ offense, though, and knows how to succeed as a rotational back. With Kamara and Murray getting the majority of snaps, at least for the 2019 season, Pollard’s impact may be limited in the boxscore but he offers the Saints an effective change of pace back, and great depth at a critical position.

PickTeamPlayer
238Chicago BearsClayton Thorson, QB, Northwestern
239New England Patriots Donald Parham, TE, Stetson
240Indianapolis ColtsBryce Love, RB, Stanford
241Dallas CowboysDevine Ozigbo, RB, Nebraska
242Los Angeles ChargersJamal Peters, CB, Mississippi
243New England Patriots Michael Jordan, iOL, Ohio State
244New Orleans Lester Cotton, iOL, Alabama
245New York GiantsKyle Shurmer, QB, Vanderbilt

Donald Parham out of small school Stetson gained a lot of momentum after being selected to participate in the 2019 Shrine Bowl. Parham is 6’8″, 243 lbs and can be, quite literally, a large impact for the Patriots as they attempt to fill their TE void.

Bryce Love, the former Heisman runner up, plummeted to nearly Mr. Irrelevant in our final 2019 NFL Draft mock. Indianapolis adds a high upside running back to an already talented running back corps. If Love reaches his potential they get a huge steal here, if not the investment is low for the Colts.

In a bit of irony, and perhaps satire-the only quarterback the Giants selected in our mock draft is Kyle Shurmer, the son of the New York Giants head coach. He is certainly not the replacement for Eli Manning, but someone has to hold the clipboard, and Kyle Lauletta rarely does himself any favors.

PickTeamPlayer
246New England Patriots Ulysees Gilber III, LB, Akron
247Minnesota Vikings Tyree St. Louis, OT, Miami
248Arizona CardinalsAlexander Mattison, RB, Boise State
249Arizona CardinalsDennis Daley, OT, South Carolina
250Minnesota Vikings Malik Reed, EDGE, Nevada
251Los Angeles RamsDonnie Lewis Jr., CB, Tulane
252New England Patriots Khari Wills, S, Michigan State
253WashingtonCalvin Anderson, OT, Texas
254Arizona CardinalsC.J. Conrad, TE, Kentucky

Our 2019 NFL Draft mock Mr. Irrelevant is C.J. Conrad-the tight end out of Kentucky. Conrad was a popular tight end heading into the 2018 season, but lost steam from a less than impressive season for the Wildcats. Still, Conrad can immediately contend for playing time in what is likely to be a revamped Arizona offense. He is one of many weapons we have the Arizona Cardinals taking throughout this NFL Draft mock.

The Baltimore Ravens 2019 NFL Draft Profile

This is a guest article submitted by Ryan Cearfoss. Ryan is a dynasty fantasy football writer for goingfor2.com and the co-host of the Armchair Fantasy Show, also sponsored by goingfor2.com.

You can find more from Ryan on Twitter.

You can check out all of his articles on goingfor2.com here

Baltimore Ravens 2018 Recap

10-6, AFC North Champs

Last year was the changing of the old guard for the Ravens going from longtime starting quarterback to Lamar Jackson. Prior to Jackson taking over the season looked lost with a 4-5 record with Flacco as the starting quarterback.

Jackson took over after an injury to Joe and didn’t look back propelling the team to a 6-1 record as the starter and having them win the AFC North before being eliminated from the playoffs.  The change in the offense to a run heavy scheme to go with the league’s top ranked defense seemed like a great recipe for success.

Draft Needs

Wide Receiver – The Ravens receiving group struggled last year and the Ravens let the majority of them walk minus Willie Snead. The Ravens need to add at least two pass catchers in this year’s draft to help give Jackson the weapons he needs in order to succeed. While this has been an area of concern in the draft for the Ravens in prior years a new Gm in Eric Decosta is bringing a different mentality to the team which means prior draft trends may not be there.

Interior offensive line– James Hurst and Matt Skura aren’t going to be enough to cut it up the middle for a team that runs the ball as much as the Ravens do. Adding a guard or center gives the Ravens a solid base at 4 of the 5 line spots which will help keep the offense chugging along.

EDGE rusher- For the first time in years Terrell Suggs isn’t in Baltimore leading the teams pass rush after taking a contract in Arizona.  To go with Suggs leaving so did starting pass rusher Za’Darius Smith who go a huge contract in free agency. Now the Ravens have to decide do they trust the young guys in the building to go along with Matt Judon rushing the passer or do they look towards the NFL Draft. Tim Williams and Tyus Bowser are both day 2 picks who have failed to live up to the hype but they also have not been in line to start before. Unless a top tier EDGE falls in the first round this will be something that will be address later in the draft.

Baltimore Ravens 2019 NFL Draft Targets

1st Round, 22nd Overall: N’Keal Harry – WR- Arizona State

N’Keal Harry is the most complete receiver in this year’s draft and has the skillset in place to be a team’s top option. Harry is a big bodied receiver who is one of the most physical players at his position to come out in a long time. Harry will allow for Jackson to throw the ball up and beat defenders on 50/50 balls and is dynamic in the short passing game as well being able to run after the catch.

Picking Harry immediately give the Ravens a better receiving option then anything they had last year and is a huge upgrade to the offense.

2nd Round, 86th Overall: Connor McGovern- IOL – PSU

The Ravens rush offense was the top in the league once Jackson took over but the line still has a pair of holes in it at right guard and center. McGovern is a fantastic run blocker who can be a plug and play starter at the guard spot opposite of Yanda. On top of being a major addition to the run game, McGovern helps protect the Ravens new franchise quarterback.

3rd Round, 103rd Overall: Darrell Henderson- RB- Memphis

Providing a little bit of lightning to Mark Ingrams thunder, Henderson is a big play waiting to happen. Darrell Henderson went back to back years averaging a whopping 8.9 yards per carry in college proving to be one of college football’s most electric playmakers. 

With as much as the Ravens run wearing down the defense it won’t take many carries for Henderson to have a huge impact being he can score any time he touches the ball. The addition of his game breaking speed not only improves the run game but it forces defenses to move up opening things up for the receivers.

3rd Round, 114th Overall: Mecole Hardman-WR- Georgia

Adding a second receiver here Harman is an absolute burner of a receiver. His ability to explode and make big plays is the perfect complement to Harry giving Jackson more weapons. As an added bonus Hardman can return punts and kicks and a general mismatch option on offense.

4th Round, 124th Overall: Gerald Willis- IDL- Miami

Willis gives the Ravens an explosive upside depth piece on their defensive line to give Peirce and Williams a breather. While he’s raw he could make some plays in a limited role.

5th Round, 161st Overall: Emeke Egbule-LB-Houston

Egbule switched from tight end to linebacker and is an incredibly explosive athlete who can excel dropping in coverage. His raw skillset should get use on special teams and an eventual role player.

5th Round: 191st Overall-Carl Granderson- EDGE- Wyoming

Granderson is a 3-4 Edge rusher with the ability to rush the passer. While he lacks in run support he has the talent to be a rush specialist on passing downs.

6th Round, 193rd Overall- Jalen Hurd- WR-Baylor

Jalen Hurd is one of the drafts biggest mysteries switching from running back to receiver after transferring to Baylor. His addition to the Ravens gives them a move piece weapon who they can manufacture touches for.

Draft Grade:

I will be adding a grade and analysis to the profile after April’s NFL draft. Be sure to bookmark the NFL Team Draft Profile page to see it

The Biggest NFL Draft Mistake for Every Team: Picks 11-21

The 2019 NFL Draft is quickly approaching and mock drafts are likely flooding your twitter timelines. Instead, I want to take a different approach in this 3 part series: what should you favorite team NOT do?

Below is what I believe to be the biggest mistake each team can make on Day 1 of the 2019 NFL Draft.

You can see my biggest mistakes for picks 1-10 here. Keep an eye out for picks 22-32 & the teams not drafting in round 1, coming soon.


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Cincinnati Bengals (11th Overall Pick): Ignoring the Rebuild

The worst place in the NFL to be is between 5-8 wins; just good enough to avoid ideal draft positions but not good enough to ever make a legitimate playoff run. The Bengals need to stop being okay with just okay and embrace a rebuild.

In a division being taken over by Mayfield and Jackson, Zac Taylor and the Bengals need their franchise quarterback and Dwayne Haskins should be their top priority. Haskins fits into Zac Taylor’s offense, and although his NFL ceiling is capped he has the potential to be Cincinnati’s Jared Goff.

Green Bay Packers (12th & 30th Overall Picks): Passing on a Tight End

The Packers could absolutely add pieces at EDGE and CB, but they have invested a lot of draft capital into that side of the ball the last few years. Now is their chance to give a fully healthy Aaron Rodgers, and their new offensive-minded head coach Matt LaFleur a dynamic playmaker.

I’m okay with Hockenson or Fant at 12, but they could wait and see if one of those Iowa tight ends falls to them at 30; if not Irv Smith would also slot nicely in their offense.

Miami Dolphins (13th Overall Pick): Drafting a Quarterback

The Dolphins roster is in a state of chaos, and it appears the front office has (thankfully) embraced a rebuild. They would be best served to invest in their offensive line and playmakers to ensure that when they do draft a quarterback in 2020, they are stepping into a situation where they can succeed.

Miami needs to avoid the pressure of burning a year of a rookie quarterback contract, especially if the “big 3” options are burned and Daniel Jones is the top quarterback remaining when they pick.

Atlanta Falcons (14th Overall Pick): Overthinking the Pick

Atlanta missed the playoffs in 2018 because of an abnormally high amount of injuries to key players. Their roster, overall, is well rounded and they have a lack of gaping needs-although an EDGE, interior offensive line, or defensive back could all help add depth.

The Falcons need to pick best available with their pick and utilize their talents while immediately contending for a playoff run.

Washington (15th Overall Pick): Passing on an Offensive Skill Player

Washington’s defense is good, so good that they kept them in playoff contention through the end of the season; a season where Alex Smith, Colt McCoy, and Mark Sanchez took snaps as the starting quarterback.

What Washington does not have is dynamic wide receivers (yes, that includes Josh Doctson) or a reliable tight end. Metcalf, Harry, Hockenson, or Fant are all picks that could help Case Keenum bridge the gap to a 2020 quarterback pick.

Carolina Panthers (16th Overall Pick): Passing on EDGE help

Yes, Carolina absolutely needs help along the offensive trenches; but the re-signing of Daryl Williams will help them wait to take an interior offensive lineman at value in the 2nd. Instead, the team that finished 28th in sacks in 2019 needs to focus on taking advantage of an incredibly talented EDGE class.

Minnesota Vikings (8th Overall Pick): Being Scared to take the First Interior Offensive Lineman

The Vikings have an incredibly talented group of offensive playmakers that are failing to reach their full potential, in large part because of horrendous offensive line play. It seems to be a written rule in the NFL that you can’t take interior linemen in the first round-but that didn’t stop the Colts from taking Quenton Nelson in 2018.

Garrett Bradbury and Chris Lindstrom are not Nelson, but they have long and successful NFL careers ahead of them-either would help the Vikings become a Superbowl contender again.

Tennessee Titans (19th Overall Pick): Taking More Offense Early

Tennessee is starting to look like a bit of an odd-ball collector with the receiving corps. they have pieced together this offseason. Add in both a veteran (Delanie Walker) and young (Jonnu Smith) tight end and I’m left confused by those seeking early draft capital be invested in another weapon for Marcus Mariota.

The Titans would be better suited to focus on their defensive line in the first round-and target a dynamic play maker like Christian Wilkins.

Pittsburgh Steelers (20th Overall Pick): Drafting like they Always do

The Steelers are the hipsters of the NFL; they feel a need to defy draft logic and make stunning picks, like taking a Day 3-graded Terrell Edmunds with their first-round pick in 2018. Now that that pick hasn’t panned out (duh) they need to dip back into the secondary well: with Bryon Murphy and Greedy Williams being their best targets.

Seattle Seahawks (21st Overall Pick): Picking in the First Round

If I was a betting man (I’m not) I’d drop a fat stack of cash on the table to face off against anyone who thinks the Seahawks will actually pick with the 21st overall selection. Instead, they will likely slide back to add additional picks to the just 4 selections they are heading into draft night with.

I’d also be willing to get in on any side-bet action that suggested they move back multiple times before Thursday night is over.  

Extreme Wide Receiver Fantasy Point Variances

Aside from the fantasy playoffs, redraft and dynasty leagues can be viewed from a macro level where you can survive two or three bad weeks or roster decisions and succeed.  That’s quite the contrast from daily fantasy where every option on a slate is put under a microscope and one mistake can make or break your week. 

NFL players have their own tendencies where they perform better in various scenarios whether it be as a favorite or underdog, playing at home or in hostile territory, or when their respective team wins or loses a game.  We’re going to explore which players at each position performed at their best or worst in various situations from last season to try and help us discover ideal roster opportunities in daily lineups.  Note that these figures can vary from year to year when someone who performed better indoors the year before now suddenly performed better outside the following year.  Viewed in another light, these figures can be interpreted as an extension of consistency rankings.  

This piece isn’t just exclusive to DFS and has a place in non-DFS leagues where an available free agent may be in a better spot to perform than a rostered option that should be on the bench for a specific week.  This will be the final part of the three-part series that concludes with the wide receiver position and only evaluates those that played a minimum of 12 games. 

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN A STRAIGHT-UP WIN

Robby Anderson: 5.86: The Jets didn’t win much in 2018 but when they did, Robby Anderson was involved as he registered a touchdown in three of those four victories.  He closed out the campaign strong and given another offseason with second-year starter Sam Darnold, their chemistry can only continue to flourish.

DeAndre Hopkins: 5.57: Opposing secondaries  that were able to somewhat stymie Nuk held him to 82.8 receiving yards and .4 touchdowns in Houston losses.  Those that fell to his wrath allowed 105.27 receiving yards and .82 touchdowns in Houston wins.  Hopkins and Davante Adams were the only two receivers to maintain a floor of 12.4 fantasy points in every game they suited up.

Jordy Nelson: 4.9: We hadn’t been accustomed to seeing Jordy Nelson without Aaron Rodgers and from Week 5-Week 12, it wasn’t a pretty sight.  In three Raider wins that he played, he maintained a double-digit FPPG average while he was boom or total bust in 12 losses.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN A STRAIGHT-UP LOSS

JuJu Smith-Schuster: 8.89: Antonio Brown had a +1.37 FPPG differential in Steeler losses but still posted more fantasy production in games they were victorious.  Meanwhile, JuJu’s variance was much more extreme at a +8.89 FPPG differential in defeats as well as generating more production in those losses.  JuJu had a solid sophomore season as the WR8 in PPR scoring and put on a display in losses that he erupted for over 30+ fantasy points against Kansas City, Oakland, and Denver.

Tyreek Hill: 6.8: He generated 17 catches for 357 yards and five touchdowns in two shootouts against the Patriots and Rams that resulted in Chiefs losses.  Since 2017, Kansas City is 3-5 straight-up when their defense surrenders 30 points or more, a scenario Tyreek Hill thrives in as he has registered 20+ fantasy points in five of those eight matchups.

D.J. Moore: 4.06: His ceiling game of 28.7 fantasy points in a loss to the Lions was the major cause of this variance for the rookie receiver out of the University of Maryland.  His only competition at the position looks to be Curtis Samuel as he looks to build on a successful rookie campaign and possibly take the reins as the #1 receiver in Carolina.  

SMALLEST WIN/LOSS VARIANCE

Alshon Jeffery: +.07: While consistent in this metric in 2018, Alshon Jeffery has shown a more positive correlation in production with Nick Foles throwing him the football vs Carson Wentz doing so since 2017.  Whether Foles remained with the Eagles or not, Jeffery will compete for looks with Zach Ertz, Wentz’s preferred option and the team leader in receptions each season since Wentz was drafted in 2016.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN HOME GAMES

Amari Cooper: 10.37 (Cumulative with Oakland and Dallas): One of the ultimate boom or bust receivers throughout his career in Oakland, that attribute carried over when Amari Cooper was dealt to Dallas.  However, when he did erupt, it was in the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum/AT&T Stadium as 68.46% of his receiving yards as well as seven of his eight touchdowns came in home games.  

Brandin Cooks: 8.73: He had a positive correlation in games at Gillette Stadium in his brief stay with New England but as Jared Goff’s home/road splits were drastic, so were Brandin Cooks as his +8.73 FPPG differential at the L.A. Coliseum demonstrated.  He had nearly two times as many receptions in home games at 53 compared to 27 receptions on the road in 2018.

Michael Thomas: 8.52: While the inverse occurred in 2017, Michael Thomas flourished in games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome to the tune of a +8.52 FPPG differential in games at that venue in 2018.  Drew Brees regressed back to his norm in games inside the fast-paced dome last year and that translated to a strong positive correlation in home games for both the future first ballot Hall of Famer and his trusty receiver.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN AWAY GAMES

Antonio Callaway: 8.89: Callaway was a non-factor in games at FirstEnergy Stadium as his 3.89 FPPG average in eight games played strongly suggests.  He was serviceable on road trips as he saw almost double the amount of receptions in road games as well as registering all of his five touchdowns away from Cleveland.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: 8.56: Victim of another strong correlation, JuJu was as useful in games the Steelers played outside of Pittsburgh as he was in games that they were defeated.  He posted crooked numbers in hostile territory with a floor of 14.8 fantasy points and posting 20+ fantasy points in five of eight road matchups.

Alshon Jeffery: 7.68: Like Antonio Callaway, Alshon Jeffery was another receiver that was nonexistent during the home portion of the Eagles 2018 schedule, a variance that became more extreme from 2017.  He saw 6.14 receptions and .71 touchdowns in seven road games vs 3.66 receptions and .17 touchdowns in six games at Lincoln Financial Field. 

SMALLEST HOME/ROAD VARIANCE

Curtis Samuel: +.16: He’s at worse the #3 receiving option for the Panthers behind  Christian McCaffery and D.J. Moore heading into 2019 but was the best in home/road consistency among evaluated receivers.  He was a low-ceiling fantasy option but when given additional snaps beginning in Week 12, Curtis Samuel maintained a solid floor of 11.2 fantasy points in five of those six games.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN GAMES WHEN THE RESPECTIVE TEAM IS A FAVORITE

Amari Cooper: 13.88: (Cumulative with Oakland and Dallas): Amari Cooper will have his breakout games as he has shown but Zeke being the focal point of the Dallas offense reduces his output some weeks.  Two of his three breakouts in 2018 were when his respective team entered the game as a favorite, averaging 71.2 receiving yards and 1 touchdown in four of those instances vs 40 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns in the underdog role.  

Nelson Agholor: 11.03: This variance reoccurring in 2019 would be quite the surprise as Nelson Agholor was rendered useless to the tune of .9 fantasy points in two games the Eagles went in as underdogs.  With the exception of the final two weeks, 2018 was a disappointing campaign that saw his touchdown receptions slashed in half from 2017

Allen Robinson: 6.46: The Allen Robinson that slaughtered the Eagles in the divisional round only appeared once in regular season action as his days of being drafted in the first four rounds may be over.  In fact, in PPR scoring, he finished just 1.4 fantasy points ahead of Taylor Gabriel for the WR1 on the Bears.  His variance exists largely due to the carnage he created against the Lions secondary in Week 10 last year.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN GAMES WHEN THE RESPECTIVE TEAM IS AN UNDERDOG

Tyreek Hill: 20.5: Since 2017, the Chiefs are 4-3 in games they enter getting points from their opponents with Tyreek Hill averaging a ridiculous 31.18 FPPG in six games in that role; he didn’t suit up Week 17 against the Broncos in 2017 as the Chiefs were locked in as the #4 seed.  He’s crossed the pylons at least one time in each of the last six instances he played in a game the Chiefs were underdogs.

Mike Williams: 11.25: Tyrell Williams departing for Oakland slots Mike Williams as the #2 wide receiver for the Chargers.  Underdog performances against the Rams and Chiefs saw the former 7th overall pick out of Clemson average eight catches for 78.5 yards and two touchdowns, a main contributor to Williams possessing this large differential.

Michael Thomas: 9.14: As Drew Brees saw a +11 FPPG differential in three games the Saints were underdogs, Michael Thomas was just as insulted in that role as he had a floor of 19.9 fantasy points in those matchups.  The Saints should be favored in nearly every game in 2019 with the exception of an NFC Championship rematch against the Rams, a secondary Michael Thomas torched for a 12/211/1 clip in Week 9.

SMALLEST FAVORITE/UNDERDOG VARIANCE

Jordy Nelson: +.29

The Raiders version of Jordy was a sad sight to behold after years of success with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  Age and injuries have caught up with him and it’s no surprise to see him enter retirement after a successful 11-year career that netted him a Super Bowl ring in 2010.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL AGAINST TEAMS RANKED IN THE TOP HALF IN PASS DVOA

Amari Cooper: 10.29: Back for a third mention, Cooper wrecked havoc on some of the stronger secondaries as he posted 20+ fantasy point performances in five of six occurrences against defenses ranked in the top half in pass DVOA.  It’s maddening that he couldn’t put those performances together against the weaker secondaries but again, Zeke touching the ball as much as he does can be attributed to this issue.

Robert Woods: 8.29: Robert Woods was at his best when the secondaries were of the tougher variety.  While Brandin Cooks better correlated against defenses in the bottom half in pass DVOA, Woods was the opposite as he posted 87.2 yards and .5 touchdowns in 10 games against the top half vs 57.83 receiving yards and .17 touchdowns in 6 games against the bottom dwellers.  

Mike Williams: 7.67: Against 10 defenses that the Chargers faced that ranked in the top half in pass DVOA, Mike Williams saw double-digit fantasy points in PPR scoring in seven of those games.  Despite injuries that hampered his rookie season, Williams rebounded nicely and will syphon some of the 64 targets that Tyrell Williams leaves behind.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL AGAINST TEAMS RANKED IN THE BOTTOM HALF IN PASS DVOA

Calvin Ridley: 8.03: He was on pace for 24 touchdowns at the conclusion of Week 4, a sure sign that regression would and did strike as Calvin Ridley only had four touchdowns in the final 12 games.  He thrived against defenses in the bottom half in pass DVOA, averaging 14.02 yards per catch to complement his 61.7 receiving yards and .9 touchdowns per game vs 10.2 yards per catch, 34 receiving yards, and .17 touchdowns per game against the better half.

Christian Kirk: 6.54: Nearly an identical situation as Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk was more effective against the weaker defenses in his rookie campaign.  While Ridley knows who will be throwing him the ball in 2019, Kirk awaits to see if Josh Rosen will be traded and the Cardinals take Kyler Murray with the first overall pick in Nashville in a few weeks.

Odell Beckham Jr.: 6.54: His situation certainly improves as he moves on from an aged Eli Manning to a blossoming Baker Mayfield.  Regardless, Eli always made it a point to target OBJ throughout his time in New York, more so against the weaker secondaries that saw the former Giant average 100.33 receiving yards and .83 touchdowns per game against bottom-half pass DVOA defenses last year compared to 75 receiving yards and .17 touchdowns against stiffer competition.

SMALLEST PASS DVOA VARIANCE

Adam Thielen: It was the tale of two seasons as the first eight games saw Adam Thielen average 25.38 FPPG while that number regressed to 13.16 FPPG in the final eight.  Dalvin Cook may have been a factor as Thielen posted a 9.6/111.4/.8 clip in 5 games Cook was inactive vs a 5.91/74.18/.45 clip in 11 games Cook suited up.  Regardless, Thielen posted stellar performances against superior and inferior defenses in 2018, especially in the earlier portion of the campaign.

WHO WERE THE MOST CONSISTENT WIDE RECEIVERS OF 2018?

This portion of the article is reserved for those who demonstrated a consistency in all of the above metrics.  As the WR9 in PPR scoring, Mike Evans rebounded from a disappointing 2017 campaign and reached double-digit fantasy points in 12 of 16 contests in 2018.  With the exception of a variance just shy of three in top-half vs bottom-half pass DVOA opponents, Evans was remarkably consistent with FPPG differentials no greater than 1.25 in the other three metrics.  The Bucs move on from one offensive-minded coach in Dirk Koetter to another in Bruce Arians, one that will continue to benefit Evans moving forward.

As mentioned above, Adam Thielen performed equally well against stingy and porous secondaries.  That consistency also carried over in the other evaluated metrics with variances no higher than three fantasy points.  Thielen has benefitted from Dalvin Cook’s inability to stay healthy in his first two seasons in the league, a positive for Thielen to keep in mind as his ADP currently sits around the end of the 2nd round/beginning of the 3rd round at the time of this writing.

Darrell Henderson: 4 Star Prospect with Explosive Potential

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

Darrell Henderson (5’8”, 208), Running Back, Memphis

19 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

At 5’8 Darrell Henderson may be considered small for a running back, but don’t let the size fool you. Henderson is very good and considered by most to be in the top 5 for RBs this year. He has the complete package when it comes to the CMC/Cohen “super hybrid” backs. What that means is he won’t necessarily bowl anyone over (similar to a downhill back), but that’s not his game anyway. Henderson can operate in space, between the tackles and has good hands, so that already spells success for him at the next level.

College Production

It’s very surprising that Henderson had the success he did given the skill of the backfield. Tony Pollard (fellow 2019 draft classmate) and Patrick Taylor Jr (2020 draft class) are both NFL caliber RBs and I expect to see both drafted to NFL rosters in the 19′ and 20′ classes.

Memphis backfield production:

Patrick Taylor Jr.: 208 carries and 17 receptions for 1319 yards from scrimmage (36th in the nation in rushing yards).

Tony Pollard: 78 carries and 39 receptions for 1010 yards from scrimmage.

Darrell Henderson: 214 carries and 19 receptions for a whopping 2204 yards from scrimmage which was good for 2nd in the nation in both yards from scrimmage and rushing yards.

Henderson definitely maximized his share of the offense almost mirroring Patrick Taylor in carries and receptions. He out-shined the talent in his own backfield in a major way without so much extra chances. This is what makes him stick out as a prospect and rise up my draft board. My knock against him is that in his productive seasons (so & jr) he only played 4 top 50 defenses against the run and 8 in the top 100. The rest of his games (13) were played against defenses that were ranked 100+.

Speed & Agility: Aggregate Score: 5 (Personal Score: 5)

The only running back who ended up with a score of five in our evaluations, Darrell Henderson is one of the fastest in this draft at the position. Giving him a sliver of run room will be a mistake and he will immediately be “gone with the wind”. His change of direction is the best in this class (yes over David Montgomery) and combining that with his speed will be dangerous.

Receiving: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 3)

I don’t think his receiving chops are bad, but when you factor in how many receptions Pollard and Taylor had (53) vs his own (19), you can see how little room he had to showcase this. I still believe he can be just fine as a pass catcher in the NFL, I just gave him this score based on his lack of chance there. It may just have been that Pollard (RB/WR sleeper) was the more efficient pass catcher given that he had 40% of the receptions.

Vision: Aggregate Score: 4.6 (Personal Score: 5)

Only surpassed by David Montgomery in this metric (by 0.4 points), Darrell Henderson has vision that A LOT of these RBs in this class don’t have. Combining that with his ability to shift and burst out of the backfield , it makes him a tantalizing prospect and one worthy of being ranked in the top 3 at the position. Here’s an example of that combo that he utilizes so well:

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 2 (Personal Score: 2)

There nothing special to see here. He’s not terrible and he’s not amazing, he does his job and won’t put his playing time in jeopardy. He could use some work, but I think this skill will be elevated sooner rather than later in preparation for the draft and again once he gets drafted.

Strength: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

He has good strength for a running back but, again, it’s not his calling card. What is specifically special about his strength comes in the area of his ball carrying. He keeps a great “5 points of contact” which is considered the best way to become almost impervious to fumbles. It worked well for him and I think that’s where his strength really matters, keeping that ball to his body.

Conclusion: 1st Round

It’s obviously based on roster construction but I don’t believe he should fall outside of the first round in rookie drafts. He’s one of the best backs in this class and I firmly believe he will stay that way unless he gets drafted behind Todd Gurley or someone of that nature.

The Biggest NFL Draft Mistake for Every Team: Picks 1-10


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The 2019 NFL Draft is quickly approaching and mock drafts are likely flooding your twitter timelines. Instead, I want to take a different approach in this 3 part series: what should you favorite team NOT do?

Below is what I believe to be the biggest mistake each team can make on Day 1 of the 2019 NFL Draft. Keep an eye out for picks 11-32, coming soon.

Arizona Cardinals (1st Overall Pick): Drafting Kyler Murray

The Cardinals traded up in the 2018 NFL Draft to take Josh Rosen as their franchise quarterback. Rarely do quarterbacks find success in their rookie season; and behind Arizona’s offensive line, with a now fired head coach it is beyond irresponsible for the Cardinals to spend their first-round pick on another quarterback.

If Arizona takes Murray, they will be failing to address many of the gaps on their roster and will essentially waste an entire year of rebuilding.

San Francisco 49ers (2nd Overall Pick): Drafting DK Metcalf

It’s a reasonable idea; take an “X” receiver to open up the field for Pettis, Goodwin, and Taylor while giving Jimmy Garoppolo the weapons needed to instantly flip the 49ers from 2nd overall draft pick to playoff contender. The 49ers, though, would be passing on a franchise changing defensive talent in either Bosa or Quinnen Williams-depending on what the Cardinals do.

San Francisco would be better suited to draft a wideout with the 36th overall pick; where they could likely get their “X” in Hakeem Butler.

New York Jets (3rd Overall Pick): Holding onto their Pick

The Jets could absolutely use Williams, Bosa, or Allen on their defensive front. They also could utilize an offensive lineman like Jawaan Taylor or Jonah Williams.

The Jets, though, don’t have a 2nd round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft (see: Sam Darnold) and would be better served to pick up an extra pick/two by sliding back into the teens. That will still allow them to cash in on high-end offensive line or EDGE talent while investing in depth for their young roster.

Oakland Raiders (4th, 24th, & 27th Overall Picks): Reaching for Risky Offensive Playmakers

The Raiders roster needs a full rebuild. Rebuilds start at the foundation of a roster: quarterback, offensive line, EDGE, and cornerback. They are in a great position to fill 3 of those 4 needs in the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft-with quarterback not being an immediate need. There will surely be EDGE talent available with the 4th overall pick; with Allen, Burns, and Roshan Gary all being options. With the 24th overall pick, the Raiders could look to add to their offensive line with players like Dalton Risner or Andre Dillard. They could then focus on snagging Byron Murphy or Greedy Williams with their 27th overall pick.

What they need to avoid, though, is reaching for high upside/high risk players like Marquise “Hollywood” Brown or Josh Jacobs-both would be fun, splashy picks but not add to a dependable core that serves as the foundation that Gruden needs to build for long-term success.

For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out the 48 Report: our 2019 Rookie Database

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5th Overall Pick: Passing on Devin White

The Buccaneers are legitimate trade back candidates, especially if you believe the Giants are interested in drafting a quarterback in the 2019 NFL Draft (more to come on that). Devin White, though, is a high end playmaker that would not only fill the hole left by Kwon Alexander, but truly improve the position over what they had last season.

The Buccaneers have a solid offensive unit, now led by Bruce Arians-it’s time for them to focus on putting explosive playmakers on the defensive side of the ball.

New York Giants (6th & 17th Overall Picks): Drafting a Quarterback

Yes, the Giants do need a franchise quarterback to replace Eli Manning but no they do not need to find them in this draft class. Haskins, Jones and Lock all have potential, but none provide the Giants with a high upside player that can lead this team back from the brink of collapse.

Instead, the Giants need to focus on leaving the 1st round of the 2019 NFL Draft with a defensive playmaker and an offensive lineman that can slide into their Right Tackle slot.

Jacksonville Jaguars (7th Overall Pick): Ignoring their Offensive Line

If DK Metcalf is available at 7th overall it will be tough for the Jaguars to pass on him, but they do not need another wide receiver in their already messy corps.;even if it is someone with so much upside. They also do not need to seriously consider quarterback with this pick; the investment they made in Foles is significant enough to at least bridge them to the 2020 NFL Draft-where Jake Fromm, Tua Tagovailoa, and Justin Herbert will be available.

Instead, they would benefit from either keeping Jawaan Taylor in state, or drafting a versatile offensive lineman like Jonah Williams or Cody Ford.

Detroit Lions (8th Overall Pick): Letting Eric Ebron Haunt them

Detroit may be hesitant to take a playmaking tight end, like TJ Hockenson or Noah Fant, with the 8th overall pick after failing to properly utilize Eric Ebron-their 2014 10th overall pick.

The Lions offense, though, is in desperate need of a difference maker and Hockenson would offer them a player maker that could support Stafford through his pass catching skills and Kerryon Johnson through his run blocking ability.

The Lions other options will likely be Montez Sweat, Devin Bush, and Byron Murphy-all of which I believe would be reaches with the 8th overall pick.

Buffalo Bills (9th Overall Pick): Pouring more Draft Capital into their Defense

The Bills have done a fantastic job of infusing young talent into their defense over the past few NFL Drafts. They may be tempted to do that again, with players like Ed Oliver possibly still available with this pick.

Instead, they need to focus on building around their young quarterback who found some success in his rookie season. The Bills should look to either find him offensive line support (Williams, Ford), a dynamic playmaking wide receiver (Metcalf), or a dual-threat tight end (Hockenson).

Denver Broncos (10th Overall Pick): Passing on Drew Lock

The Broncos did a great job of addressing their major needs (offensive line and secondary) through free agency. It puts them in a position to be strategic and make a long-term investment in their roster. Drew Lock can be the quarterback that Elway finally gets right, with two years to learn behind Joe Flacco. Lock is a competitor, has 4 years of experience starting in the SEC against the best defenses in the country, and has the ability to shred defenses at every level of the field.

Fantasy Football Impact of the Offensive Line: Baltimore Ravens

Image result for football offensive line image

Round 3 of our Offensive Line brings us to the first focus for an east coast team: the Baltimore Ravens.

For a look at the Arizona Cardinals or the Oakland Raiders, simply click on the links.

Baltimore Ravens

One of the more intriguing teams for the approaching 2019 season is the Baltimore Ravens. Officially Joe Flacco-less, officially Mark Ingram-full. We saw Lamar Jackson be a top 10 fantasy QB from weeks 11-16. We saw Alex Collins and Gus Edwards become decent fantasy options on a weekly basis. What we didn’t see was a fantasy relevant wide receiver; the best receiver on the Ravens was John Brown with 715 yards and 5 touchdowns.

The Ravens offensive line remained mostly healthy throughout the 2018 campaign with only Alex Lewis missing any remarkable time with 3 games. They allowed 32 sacks which is an average amount. They also committed an average number of penalties.

What they didn’t do was excel.

2018 End-of-Season Starters and Their 2019 Status

Position 2018 Starter 2019 Starter Notes
Left Tackle Ronnie Stanley Ronnie Stanley One of the best LTs in 2018. Mostly healthy and consistent.
Left Guard Alex Lewis Alex Lewis Missed some games due to a neck injury. Was otherwise pretty bad.
Center Matt Skura Matt Skura A perennial practice squad player who lucked into the role. Likely to be replaced.
Right Guard Marshal Yanda Marshal Yanda One of the best RGs in the league in 2018. Returns after a largely healthy year.
Right Tackle James Hurst Orlando Brown Hurst and Brown swapped depth chart positions during the 2018 season. Currently is Brown’s role.
Tight End Nick Boyle Nick Boyle Was signed as a free agent in 2019. Boyle is effective at pass and run blocking but lives in a 4 headed monster Tight End position in Baltimore.

Current O-Line Ranking

Name Position NFL Ranking (in Position)
Ronnie Stanley Left Tackle 9
Alex Lewis Left Guard 27
Matt Skura Center 20
Marshal Yanda Right Guard 4
Orlando Brown Right Tackle 18
Nick Boyle Tight End 9
Overall Team O-Line 14
*Rankings based on ProFootballFocus.com scoring

Free Agency: Move Along, Nothing to See Here

The Baltimore Ravens made a huge wave with their signing of Mark Ingram, but have made no changes to their offensive line through free agency. Nick Boyle was signed as a Free Agent but he was already on the team in 2018.

It’s conceivable that they wanted to make more free agency moves but were strapped by the amount of cap space that they have available in addition to a number of expiring contracts in 2020. They may be considering extending some of those and will need the money available to make those moves.

NFL Draft Thoughts

The Ravens currently have 8 picks at their disposal. They will have to use them carefully because they have 7 positions of need. On the O-Line, they have a need at Left Guard and at Center. Both Alex Lewis’ and Matt Skura’s contracts expire after the season ends. Based on their performance, I do not anticipate either of them being resigned unless it is a depth move. Replacements need to be found through the draft regardless of those decisions because of their performance.

We must consider what is a greater position of need. Unfortunately for the purposes of this article, I believe the Ravens will place Wide Receiver above the inside positions of the Offensive Line. They have Willie Snead (whose contract is also expiring at the end of the season) and then there are a bunch of names that I have never seen on a fantasy football roster. Multiple mock drafts have the Ravens selecting Parris Campbell from Ohio State. If they do, he will immediately move up my preseason draft board rankings.

Their first round pick is now behind us. The Ravens do not have a second round pick. They traded it to Philadelphia as part of a package deal to get Philly’s Round One pick in 2018 which the Ravens used to draft Lamar Jackson. Now we are in the third round. Do the Ravens have a need greater than Guard and Center? Let’s assume that they do not.

The likely targets for either of the Ravens 2 third round picks are:

  • Greg Little – Tackle – Mississippi
  • Mitch Hyatt – Tackle – Clemson
  • Tyler Roemer – Tackle – San Diego State
  • Lamont Gaillard – Center – Georgia
  • Michael Jordan – Guard (but can move to Center) – Ohio State

Look for those names to be called on day 2 of the NFL Draft. If they are drafted by the Ravens, they are instantly in the conversation of starting in week 1.

One name that might still be on the board in Round 3 or 4 is Connor McGovern out of Penn State. He is another one who, like Michael Jordan, is capable of playing Center or Guard. He was an essential piece to Saquon Barkley’s amazing 2017 season at Penn State. Considering the lack of receiving talent on the Ravens roster in addition to the signing of Mark Ingram AND the proclivity of Lamar Jackson running the ball, McGovern would be a perfect fit. If the Ravens draft McGovern AND if he lands the starting role, I will move Mark Ingram higher in my preseason rankings.

2019 Thoughts

The Baltimore Ravens are on the knife’s edge. A couple of right moves and they could find themselves the AFC North champions. The Bengals are rebuilding and the Steelers are on a downward trend. The Browns appear to be a juggarnaut this year, but they have turned disappointment into a habit. A couple of missed opportunities and the Ravens will quickly start moving pieces before the trade deadline in preparation for the 2020 season.

The Ravens have a Vegas over/under of 9 wins in their 2019 campaign. They will not be able to live up to that goal without some help on the offensive line. Look for the Ravens to strike late on day 2 or early on day 3 of the NFL Draft.

Conclusion

Let’s assume that the Ravens make the right choices. They know their way to the division championship and they found it with an arguably mediocre team in 2018. If the Ravens are able to utilize their defense as it should be used, they will be able to turn their focus to the run game.

Mark Ingram will have a good fantasy year. It will be even better if the Ravens make the right decisions for their offensive line.

Lamar Jackson will continue his life of fantasy relevance. It will be even more consistent with improvements to the offensive line.

The Ravens WILL draft a wide receiver on day 1 in April. Hot take: that rookie will lead the team in receiving.

They have the means to make a fantasy owner happy. A couple of steps towards improving their offensive line will turn that good year into a GREAT one. We will be watching the draft very closely. We cannot make any further assessments until then.

Fantasy Football Big Board 2.0 (Hicks)

Welcome to my second fantasy football big board. I’ve already released positional rankings, based purely on tape, for each position group. You may want to check out those articles before reading this if you haven’t already. You also may want to check out my first big board article.

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers 2.0

Tight Ends

This edition of my big board includes tape reviews for an additional 15 players. It also includes adjusted scores for already reviewed players-based on additional film review, pro-day numbers, or other information which contributes to the NFL Draft stock.

I use tier based rankings. If you’re not used to this system note that players within the same tier have similar value for me. Choosing players within the same tier should come down to: personal preference of the fantasy football player making the draft pick (hey, it’s your pick not mine) and what your roster construction demands.

You can see how my rankings mach-up with my fellow dynasty writers by checking out or full prospect database at the 48 Report

Tier 1: Top 5 Value

RankChangePOSPlayerCollegeHeightWeight
10WRN’Keal HarryArizona State6’4″213
20WRDK MetcalfOle Miss6’4″228
30WRKelvin HarmonNC State6’2″221
40WRHakeem ButlerIowa State6’6″225
52WRAJ BrownOle Miss6’1″225
62TENoah FantIowa6’5″240

I’m down to 6 players that I could legitimately justify taking with a top 5 rookie dynasty draft pick. My top 4 players remain unchanged, but a deeper review of AJ Brown has solidified his position in the top 5. Further analysis on this wide receivers can be found in my Wide Receivers 2.0 article.

As running backs continue to be unimpressive it has become clear that none deserve to go in the top half of the first round of rookie drafts without ideal landing spots.

The barren landscape of tight ends in the NFL leads me to consider Fant a top option. Fant’s athleticism is very impressive and it leads me to believe that he may be able to produce early for fantasy football players-bucking the trend of the position.

Tier 2: 1st Round Worthy

RankChangePOSPlayerCollegeHeightWeight
7-2RBRodney AndersonOklahoma6’2″220
82RBMiles SandersPenn State5’11’215
92TETJ HockensonIowa6’5″250
10-4RBJosh JacobsAlabama5’10216
112WRParris CampbellOhio State6’1″208
123WRDeebo SamuelSouth
Carolina
6’0″210
13-4RBDavid MontgomeryIowa State5’11216

This tier is defined by running backs sliding. Anderson slides 2 spots as his health continues to be shrouded in mystery. I love Anderson, and 7 is still higher than most are willing to rank him, but I need to see how much NFL teams love him. Jacobs slides 4 spots from unimpressive performance testing. As teams fill their running back needs in free agency it seems less and less likely that he will have a 3 down role early in his career. Montgomery’s 4 spot slide is less about him and more about those who jumped above him-only a good landing spot can bring him back into the first round for my rankings.

Tier 3: 2nd Round Value

RankChangePOSPlayerCollegeHeightWeight
14-2RBJustice HillOklahoma
State
5’10190
153TEIrv Smith JrAlabama6’3″243
160RBDamien HarrisAlabama5’10”215
170WREmanuel HallMissouri6’3″195
18NR*WRMiles BoykinNotre
Dame
6’4″228
19-5RBTrayveon WilliamsTexas
A&M
5’9200
20NR*WRStanley MorganNebraska6’1″200

*NR=Not Ranked. This player was not ranked in my 1st big board article

Tier 3 is defined by players that are very likely going to be available in the second round of the dynasty rookie fantasy football drafts. Who you prefer in this round may come down whether you want ceiling (upside) or floor (safety).

Hill (PPR threat), Hall (Y-type WR/burner along the sideline), Miles Boykin (athleticism), and Trayveon Williams (lack of projected draft capital) all are high upside players I like. Look for landing spots to truly separate them, but for now I’d be happy to get all of them in the 2nd round of my rookie drafts.

Irv Smith Jr., given his position, may take longer to pay off for you-but his athletic play style may pay off in 2/3 years. Damien Harris seems bound for a solid, but not highlight filled, football career. You may like him better in non-PPR formats. Stanley Morgan is an exciting gadget type player who may get a lot of receptions for you, but is not likely to be a red zone threat.

Tier 4: Plant Your Flag

RankChangePOSPlayerCollegeHeightWeight
21NRRBAlex
Barnes
Kansas
State
6’1″225
22NRWRDillon
Mitchell
Oregon6’2″189
23-4WRJalen
Hurd
Baylor6’4″217
240TEJace
Strenberger
Texas
A&M
6’4″250
25NRWRTerry
McLaurin
Ohio State6’1″205
26-1QBKyler
Murray
Oklahoma5’10”195
270WRJJ Arcega-
Whiteside
Stanford6’3225
28-2RBDarrell
Henderson
Memphis5’9″200
29-7QBDrew
Lock
Missouri6’4″225
30NRRBJames
Williams
Washington
State
6’0″205
31-11WRMarquise
Brown
Oklahoma5’10”168
32-2QBDwayne
Haskins
Ohio State6’2″215
33-4WRRiley
Ridley
Georgia6’2200
34NRRBDevine
Ozigbo
Nebraska6”0″235
35-7WRAndy
Isabella
U Mass5’10”190

This tier is when things start to get wild. It is filled with players that could be available in either the 2nd or 3rd rounds of your fantasy football rookie drafts-depending on the preferences of your league mates.

Alex Barnes is a great combination of strength and speed; he has solid film and performed very well at the combine. Dillon Mitchell is an explosive play maker and shows off high upside athleticism in his tape. James Williams could be dangerous if he lands in a high-powered NFL offense that utilizes him specifically in a pass catching role. Devine Ozigbo was a combine snub; he is a powerful runner who has great balance and dangerous acceleration downfield.

I remain lower than most on Henderson-who comes off to me as having poor vision, rounded cuts, and unable to pass block. Hollywood Brown will likely be off your board by the mid-2nd round but I could not possibly justify the undersized, injured, and one dimensional wide receiver going before the 3rd round.

Tier 5: Throw Your Dart

RankChangePOSPlayerCollegeHeightWeight
36-13RBDevin
Singletary
Florida
Atlantic
5’9200
37-1QBDaniel
Jones
Duke6’5″220
38-3WRAnthony
Johnson
Buffalo6’2207
39NRRBAlexander
Mattison
Boise State5’11”211
40-19RBBenny
Snell
Kentucky5’11”223
41-9TEDax
Raymond
Utah State6’5″250
423QBBrett
Rypien
Boise State6’2″202
433TEDawson
Knox
Ole Miss6’4″250
44-11RBElijah
Holyfield
Georgia5’11”215
45NRWRHunter
Renfrow
Clemson5’10”180
462RBMyles
Gaskin
Washington5’9″191
47-13QBTyree
Jackson
Buffalo6’7″245
48-11RBMike
Weber
Ohio State5’10214
49-18WRLil Jordan
Humprey
Texas6’4″225
50-12WRGreg
Dortch
Wake
Forest
5’9″170

Once you have hit the 4th round you are truly throwing darts and hoping for the best. Some choose to use this round to fill roster need i.e. taking the best QB available for depth. I, however, prefer to find players with high ceilings because all players carry risk at this point-so why not go big and get someone with an equal amount of upside?

Dax Raymond and Dawson Knox are two very athletic tight ends who could produce for your fantasy football roster. Raymond has great tape and is a well rounded tight end, but is a bit older. Knox is still very raw and is underdeveloped as a route runner but is extremely athletic for the position.

Alexander Mattison and Benny Snell are powerful running backs who may not see action on 3rd downs in the NFL but could get significant goal line work. It never hurts to have a touchdown vulture on your roster.

You’ll likely be waiting a few years for Tyree Jackson to develop, but stashing him could be worth it. The Buffalo sensation has a huge arm and is impressively athletic for his size. His poor footwork, accuracy, and decision making, though, will take time to hone even with the best coaching situation.

Tier 6: Taxi Squad Heros

RankChangePOSPlayerCollegeHeightWeight
51-1RBBryce
Love
Stanford5’10”202
52-10WRWill
Grier
WVU6’2″223
53-13TEKaden
Smith
Stanford6’5259
54-15QBEaston
Stick
North
Dakota State
6’2″222
55NRWRKeeSean
Johnson
Fresno
State
6’2″199
56-12WRDeMarkus
Lodge
Ole Miss6’2″200
57NRWRDavid
Sills
West
Viginia
6’4″210
58NRRBKaran
Higdon
Michigan5’10”202
59-12QBJordan
Ta’amu
Ole Miss6’2″212
60-19TEIsaac
Nuata
Georgia6’4″240
61-18RBDamarea
Crockett
Missouri5’11225
62-11QBGardner
Minshew
Washington
State
6’2′220
63-14QBJarrett
Stidham
Auburn6’2″215

My final tier (for now) is filled with players that scream JAG (just another guy) to me. There are some big names on this list-ones I was excited to review film on. None of them, however, stood out enough to fall into the “dart throw” category for me.

If you do find yourself in a league that drafts into the 50’s/60’s overall there are some players that could fit into your taxi squad. Bryce Love’s college production shows you his upside-perhaps an improved offensive line could bring him back to near Heisman production. Isaac Nauta was on a lot of radars, until poor combine testing cast major concerns over his athleticism and speed; maybe a good landing spot could help him offset those issues. Davis Sills fits the profile of an “X” receiver in the NFL and flashed at times, but the converted QB has terrible hands-if he develops into a more reliable wideout he could be a red zone threat.

3 Rounds of Mock Draft for 2019 NFL Draft: NFC Teams

It is officially NFL Draft season! To celebrate the Fanalysts dynasty team performed a 3 round mock draft for all 32 NFL Teams. The results of the draft, broken down by division then team, are listed below. Every team has a full list of their draft picks and an analysis of their overall 3 round draft.

This article will will focus on the NFC teams.

For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out the 48 Report: our 2019 Rookie Database

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles

Round 1, 25th Overall: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

Round 2, 53rd Overall: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington

Round 2, 55th Overall: Justice Hill, RB, Oklahoma State

Analysis: The Eagles score solid support for their secondary with Murphy in the back end of the first round. Andre Dillard likely won’t fall this far in the NFL Draft but if he does he would give them great depth and would have the time to develop as an eventual replacement for their aging tackles. Justice Hill is a dynamic pass catching back who can perfectly compliment Jordan Howard’s role in the offense.

Matt Hicks

Dallas Cowboys

Round 2, 58th Overall: Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State

Round 3, 90th Overall: Renell Wren, iDL, Arizona State

Analysis: With just 2 picks in the first 2 days the Cowboys need to be strategic with their picks. Kahale Warring gives them a very athletic, but raw, tight end who could develop into a huge weapon for Prescott and the Cowboys offense. Wren helps them address their need on the defensive side of the trenches. Alternatively, Dallas could also look for help along the offensive line or look for a high upside wideout.

Matt Hicks

New York Giants

Round 1, 6th Overall: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

Round 1, 17th Overall: Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan

Round 2, 37th Overall: Chase Winovich, EDGE, Michigan

Round 3, 95th Overall: Stanley Morgan, WR, Nebraska

Bush and Winovich give the Giants two dynamic pass rushers on the defensive side of the ball. Gettleman wants to win in the trenches and Jawaan Taylor is the best pure offensive tackle in the draft; making him a clear choice with their 6th overall pick. Stanley Morgan is a gadget-type player who can help the Giants work the shortfield with Eli Manning at the helm. The Giants don’t yet have a clear vision forward under Gettleman but with these 4 players highlighting their draft class things are going to start looking a lot clearer in New York.

Matt Hicks

Washington/Salt Lake (RIP)

Round 1, 15th Overall: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

Round 2, 46th Overall: Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State

Round 3, 76th Overall: Amani Hooker, S, Iowa

Washington will be looking for their quarterback of the future with Case Keenum bridging a terrible Alex Smith injury with last season’s Ohio State star. Haskins has a lot of developing to do but can fit in Gruden’s scheme after hopefully a “redshirt” year in 2019. Haskins gets paired up with his Ohio State teammate in Parris Campbell; who is fast, a good route runner, and could help break Washington’s streak of struggling wide receivers. Amani Hooker pairs up nicely with Landon Collins and helps their defense continue to be the foundation of their roster.

Matt Hicks

NFC North:

Chicago Bears

3rd round, 87th overall: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

The Chicago Bears have very little draft capital in the 2019 NFL Draft.  Luckily, the Bears don’t have a ton of holes on the roster. One of the glaring needs is a well rounded running back, especially with trading Jordan Howard away.  I think Chicago could have gone RB later and addressed EDGE or secondary here, but Josh Jacobs stood out for me here. Josh Jacobs is a very powerful runner, is very agile and is more than capable of producing in the passing game.  Jacobs and Tarik Cohen would be a deadly combo if Chicago could pull this off.

Mike Colaianne

Minnesota Vikings

1st round, 18th overall: Garrett Bradbury, iOL, NC State

2nd round, 50th overall: Michael Deiter, OT, Wisconsin

3rd round, 81st overall: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma

Minnesota needs to address the offensive line in this draft.  They just paid Kirk Cousins last season and invested solid draft capitol into Dalvin Cook.  The Vikings need to protect these weapons and allow the offense to produce at the level it should be.  Bradbury and Deiter should both be able to contribute right away and help take this offense to the next level.  I think Marquise Brown would be a great fit in this offense. Brown can help stretch the field, which would help create even more space for Thielen and Diggs.

Mike Colaianne

Green Bay Packers

1st round, 12th overall: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

1st round, 30th overall: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

2nd round, 44th overall: JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford

3rd round, 75th overall: Joe Giles-Harris, LB, Duke

Defense, Defense, Defense! That should be the main priority for Green Bay.  They have had some nice signings in free agency, such as Adrian Amos, but this defense is far from being a complete unit.  Sweat is an athletic freak that can give the Packers some much needed pass rush. Gardner-Johnson is a very versatile player that can fill many different roles in the defense.  Giles-Harris is a very intelligent player that should be able to play right away. Finally, Arcega-Whiteside can be the huge red zone threat that Jimmy Graham never was.

Mike Colaianne

Detroit Lions

1st round, 8th overall: TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa

2nd round, 43rd overall: Justin Layne, CB, Michigan State

3rd round, 88th overall: L.J. Collier, EDGE, TCU

Pass rush, cornerback and tight end seem to be the biggest needs for Detroit.  Honestly, they can probably address these three positions in any order in the draft.  Hockenson is a rarity in the sense that he is a great blocker and pass catcher. His balance will allow him to play right away and stay on the field no matter the situation.  Layne was converted to a cornerback after his freshman year and has developed quickly. He is a very physical player that will fit nicely opposite of Darius Slay. Collier is a player that can be moved around the defensive line and will compete no matter what position he is in.

Mike Colaianne

NFC South:

Carolina Panthers

1st Round, 16th Overall: Rashaan Gary, EDGE, Michigan

2nd Round, 47th Overall: Greg Little, T, Ole Miss

3rd Round, 77th Overall: Tytus Howard, T, Alabama State

3rd Round, 100th Overall: Damien Harris, RB, Alabama

Analysis: I took mercy on the Panthers and gave them a very good pass rusher in Rashaan Gary out of Michigan. They could use a bit more pass rush and Gary was too good to pass up. The next two picks are tackles… Because the Panthers MUST PROTECT CAM AT ALL COSTS. There were reports that Cam might need shoulder surgery and could miss the season earlier in the year but he opted for a more minor procedure. This doesn;t change the fact that the Carolina Offensive Line was just that, Offensive. I rounded it out by taking Damien Harris. Imagine a 1-2 punch of McCaffrey and Harris? Sure, for fantasy is might be a bit of a downer but that tandem would be a PROBLEM.

Eric Adams

New Orleans Saints

Round 2, 62nd Overall: Taylor Rapp, S, Washington

Analysis: Quite a bit to digest here, try not to get overwhelmed. Taylor Rapp is a draft crush of mine. This guy thumps with the best of them and a big hitting safety is just what the doctor ordered for a New Orleans team that would probably like to hit anything that moves at the moment. Other than that, take a load off New Orleans, don’t think you’ll be doing much drafting this year.

Eric Adams

Atlanta Falcons

Round 1, 14th Overall: Ed Oliver, iDL, Houston

Round 2, 45th Overall: Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame

Round 3, 79th Overall: D’Andre Walker, EDGE, Georgia

Analysis: The Atlanta Falcons needed to shore up their deficiencies on the defensive end and this was a perfect start for them. With this draft, you want to go after some of these positions early before they dry up. Ed Oliver is a great get at 14 and sort of the best player available move. As good as he is, he should be able to win out in training camp and/or start sooner rather than later. Love and Walker are great depth picks who could also end up starting in the first couple of years.

Christopher Nelson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Round 1, 5th Overall: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

Round 2, 39th Overall: Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama

Round 3, 70th Overall: David Long, CB, Michigan

Analysis: With Jonah Williams available at the 5th pick, it was an easy decision to add him to a offensive line that sorely needs him. Mack Wilson went a little higher than some expected, but with the loss of Kwon Alexander this was a move that was needed. This gives him time to learn and grow behind Beckwith and David while providing depth. The pick of David Long brings in a corner who works really well against smaller receivers who would work will in the slot.

Christopher Nelson

NFC West:

Arizona Cardinals

Round 1, 1st Overall: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State

Round 2, 34th Overall: Chris Lindstrom, iOL, Boston College

Round 3, 66th Overall: Emanuel Hall, WR, Missouri

Analysis: The Cardinals have a lot of needs on their roster, replacing the franchise quarterback they traded up for in last year’s draft is not one of those needs. Instead, they need to stay the path of Rosen and take Bosa with the first overall pick. Lindstrom is a very valuable pick in the early 2nd; he would provide instant support for Arizona’s offensive line. Emanuel Hall would be a dangerous weapon for them along the outside. He would help stretch the field while Kirk and Fitzgerald work the underneath.

Matt Hicks

Los Angeles Rams

1st round, 31st overall: Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State

3rd round, 94th overall: Blake Cashman, LB, Minnesota

3rd round, 99th overall: Miles Sanders, RB, Penn State

The one glaring need I didn’t address for Los Angeles here is the offensive line.  I could definitely see them addressing that early in the early rounds of the draft.  The reason for taking Oruwariye instead of o-line is that they need the depth there. Peters and Talib are both free agents after 2019 and Oruwariye is a versatile player that makes big plays.  Cashman is a great athlete that can play on all three downs in the NFL. If the Rams are truly worried about Gurley’s knee, getting Sanders in the third could be a steal. Sanders can do a little bit of everything and take some of the load off Gurley.  

Mike Colaianne

Seattle Seahawks

1st round, 21st overall: Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

3rd round, 84th overall: Dru Samia, iOL, Oklahoma

The recent Doug Baldwin news really influenced my picks for Seattle.  I planned on going cornerback, but as Baldwin is having a harder time staying on the field, Seattle can’t rely on Tyler Lockett to be their #1 go-to guy.  Butler would fit into this offense nicely and I think him and Lockett could be a very nice combo for Russell Wilson. Samia was a 4 year starter at Oklahoma and has the athleticism and technique to play right away.  Some other positions you could see Seattle address in the draft are cornerback and pass rusher.

Mike Colaianne

San Francisco 49ers

1st round, 2nd overall: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State

2nd round, 36th overall: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia

3rd round, 67th overall: Antoine Wesley, WR, Texas Tech

San Francisco needs to address a lot of needs, but they are also picking 1.02 for a reason. The most important thing to do is add talent, especially at the top end. Brian Burns is a top notch edge rusher and a worthy player of a top 2 pick. Possibly a better pure pass rusher than Bosa, Burns gives their defense a shot in the arm that they need to make some big plays and help support their increasingly high powered offense. Deandre Baker in the second round is another nice addition to that defense. He is a quality athlete that would step right in as a starter. Wesley is an upside swing that could really work out in that offense. He fills an archetype on the boundary that they do not currently have.

Josh Padgett

Fantasy Football Impact of the Offensive Line: Oakland Raiders

Image result for football offensive line image

Round 2 of our Offensive Line focus brings us to Oakland and a review of the Raiders along with their hope for the 2019 season.

For a look at Round 1 and the Arizona Cardinals, please click here!

Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders were a fantasy wasteland in 2018. Derek Carr was the 18th QB after week 16 scoring a dismal 14.3 points per game according to FantasyPros.com.

The Running Backs were dreadful. Marshawn Lynch only played in 6 games averaging 10.7 0.5 PPR points per game. After the Raiders’ bye in week 7, Doug Martin took over the lead back role and continued the mediocrity. He averaged 9.3 points per game.

Finally, the Wide Receivers felt the pain of having an under-performing Quarterback. Amari Cooper was a disappointment until he was traded to the Dallas Cowboys during the Raiders bye week. That left Jordy Nelson, Dwayne Harris, and Seth Roberts to carry the load. None of them were up to the task.

A large chunk of the failures can be placed squarely on the shoulders of Jon Gruden. Whether the misery was part of his master plan or a spotlight on how out of touch he was with the NFL in 2018, the team failed, in part, because of him.  A second part of the offensive failures could also be placed with Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson, who has not had a successful campaign with any team in over a decade.

Regardless of coaching, the team would not have had a successful offense due to the poor play of their offensive line. Kolton Miller and Brandon Parker combined for the most penalties by Tackles in the NFL. The line as a whole allowed Derek Carr to be sacked 51 times. That is not a typo. FIFTY ONE.

2018 End-of-Season Starters and Their 2019 Status

Position 2018 Starter 2019 Starter Notes
Left Tackle Kolton Miller Trent Brown After a SB win with the Patriots in 2018, Brown moves to the Raiders and is currently the highest paid Lineman in the NFL.
Left Guard Kelechi Osemele Kolton Miller Osemele moves to the Jets. Miller was terribly ineffective at LT. Moves to LG. Committed many penalties in 2018.
Center Rodney Hudson Rodney Hudson One of the best Centers in the league in 2018.
Right Guard Gabe Jackson Gabe Jackson One of the best Right Guards in the league in 2018.
Right Tackle Brandon Parker Brandon Parker Tied for 10th in the NFL for penalties. Half of his were false starts.
Tight End Jared Cook Lee Smith Cook went to the Saints. Current depth chart lists Smith #1. Uncertain if that remains after the draft.

Current O-Line Ranking

Name Position NFL Ranking (in Position)
Trent Brown Left Tackle 21
Kolton Miller Left Guard 30
Rodney Hudson Center 3
Gabe Jackson Right Guard 8
Brandon Parker Right Tackle 30
Lee Smith Tight End 3
Overall Team O-Line 19
*Rankings based on ProFootballFocus.com scoring

Free Agency: One down, one to go

As mentioned above, the Tackle position for the Oakland Raiders was the weakest in the NFL in 2018. The Raiders made strides in the right direction. On March 13, the Raiders signed unrestricted free agent Trent Brown to the biggest contract for an NFL lineman. Trent Brown spent the 2018 season with the Super Bowl winning New England Patriots. He is a consistently healthy player that adds strength to the tackle. This will allow Kolton Miller to move to the Left Guard position. That loud noise you just heard was a sigh of relief from Derek Carr. When Miller wasn’t committing penalties, he was opening doors for the opposing defense. Removing him from the outside left is a smart move.

This was a necessary move to give Derek Carr time to throw the ball to his newest targets. It will also improve the possibilities for whomever starts at Running Back in 2019.

NFL Draft Thoughts

With consistency, strength, and leadership at the Left Tackle, Center, and Right Guard positions, the Raiders need to take a long hard look at their sophomore O-Line players (Kolton Miller and Brandon Parker). Their rookie seasons were awful. The Raiders spent some impressive draft capital on those two players in 2018. Kolton Miller was their first round pick (1.15) while Brandon Parker was the first pick in the 3rd round! They will not simply forget the talent that convinced the Raiders’ main office to commit those early picks.

The truth is that the coaching staff is going to have to spend time developing the skills of those 2nd year players. While it is true that the Raiders have 11 picks including 3 first round picks, it is also true that they have severe needs at many defensive positions and at running back.

One position of need which will have an impact on the offensive line is the Tight End. Lee Smith is great at pass and rush protection but in 8 full seasons in the NFL he has surpassed 10 targets in a season only 3 times. None were higher than 13 targets. The Raiders need an offensive presence at the Tight End position.

Look no further than Noah Fant. Chad Reuter of NFL.com has Noah Fant going to the Raiders at pick 27 (Oakland’s 3rd pick of the first round). That same mock has T.J. Hockenson going to the Packers earlier in the draft. I did not see the Packers taking a Tight End there because they have more dire needs at other positions. However, some fellow writers at TheFFAnalysts.com agreed with the mock draft. “A lot of people see it as a possibility,” remarks @jplumm94. “I could see Hockenson at 12,” agreed @theFF_taters. With Hockenson off the board, the Raiders hand will be forced.

Author’s note: Since the writing of this article, the Raiders have signed Luke Willson. This has to be a depth move. Willson is another Tight End that has never had fantasy relevance. He is quite good at run and pass blocking, though.

The Tight End position will likely be taken care of early in the draft. Between that, the draft capital of the 2018 rookie offensive lineman, and the other team needs in 2019 it is quite conceivable that the Raiders will stand pat at the offensive line. At most, they may use a late round pick to add some depth.

2019 Thoughts

Here is what we know about the Raiders:

  • They’ve added some impressive receivers in Free Agency
  • They’ve added a strong player to their offensive line
  • The rookies from 2018 on the o-line were college standouts
  • Derek Carr has shown that he is able to succeed

Recently, the Raiders signed Isaiah Crowell. After this signing, it is becoming clear that the improvements at offensive line do not appear to be completed to improve the run game. Crowell’s one year deal is an indicator that they are holding out until the 2020 draft class to fill the RB need.

Instead, they will be focusing on Derek Carr and the passing game. They’ll need it. The Oakland defense gave up the most points to opposing offenses in 2018. There haven’t been any slam dunk free agency signings and their defensive issues will not be solved immediately through the draft. While the defense is in the midst of a rebuild, the offense will be playing catch up.

Conclusion

Vegas odds has the Raiders winning 5 games in 2019. With the added firepower at receiver and the strengthening of the offensive line, the Raiders will be in more close games and could squeak out some additional wins through their passing game alone. The losses will likely include some garbage time points.

What does this mean for fantasy? Derek Carr’s 2018 stats means he will not be drafted in most formats. However, I could see a likelihood that he will be a waiver wire target at times in 2019. He’s going to have production. He has talent and now he has a couple of high end targets in Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams. Throw in the possibility of a new Tight End and Derek Carr has the potential to return to his Top 10 Fantasy QB stats.

Speaking of those receivers, they will both be owned in most formats. Antonio Brown is currently the 7th Wide Receiver off the board at the 2.06 according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Tyrell Williams is going at the incredible fantasy value of the 14th round. Both should have very good fantasy years considering the pass protection of the offensive line and Derek Carr’s ability. If the pieces remain healthy, then Antonio Brown could remain a top 5 WR and Tyrell Williams could be a solid WR2 in fantasy.

Don’t sleep on the Oakland Raiders. But, don’t overspend on them, either. We will certainly know more after the draft.

N’Keal Harry: Possible WR1 of the NFL Draft?

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

N’Keal Harry (6’2”, 228lbs) Wide Receiver, Arizona State

18 Aggregate Score (4-Star Prospect)

We have been pumping out article after article about the wide receivers in this draft class. It is a deep class that has a lot of people divided on who the best of the bunch is. N’Keal Harry is absolutely under consideration. A 4-star recruit out of Chandler High School in Arizona, Harry chose to remain home despite recruiting efforts from numerous big name schools. He committed to Arizona State in November of 2015.

In 3 years at Arizona State, Harry accumulated 2,889 yards on 213 catches. He scored 22 touchdowns and had an average YPC of 13.6. Along with the production, Harry made numerous highlight reel catches that put him on the radar of many NFL scouts. It’s not hard to see why the NFL is enamored with the Sun Devil WR.

Speed/Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 3)

Before I begin to break down my thoughts on Harry, I feel the need to explain my scores. This is the first year of The 48 Report and since it’s in its infancy, the scoring isn’t necessarily refined just yet. While it is a great system for starters, I felt as if my scores may have not reflected how I truly feel about Harry because I LOVE N’Keal Harry’s game. I’ll say that Harry isn’t a burner but has solid speed. A 4.57 40 yard dash at the combine proves as much. His game speed is good and he will not be docked for this at all.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 3)

Harry is a precise route runner. He sets up defenders to make them look foolish. He also ran quite a few screens at Arizona State, which showed their propensity to get the ball into his hands. While he could always use some polish coming out of college, Harry seems to be pretty refined in this area of his game.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 1)

I understand that I am a bit tougher in terms of scoring when it comes to blocking but Harry disappointed in this area. For a bigger guy who has a lot of strength (27 reps on the bench press at the combine), he isn’t as physical/aggressive as I would like him to be. He also was late at times getting to his blocks. He just did not impress me when it came to blocking for his teammates.

Handwork/Positioning: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

Harry has very solid hands and can swat defenders away with ease. He should have no problem beating press coverage in the NFL. The only thing I wish Arizona State did more of was throwing some jump balls his way. He is incredible when making contested catches and if he lands with a QB who trusts his receivers with 50/50 balls then Harry will be a problem in the NFL.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 4.3 (Personal Score: 4)

Harry is an athletic freak and his combine/pro day proved that. Hell his career at Arizona State proved as much. His vertical is impressive, his hands are top notch and he can get up to speed pretty well for his size. He is a physical specimen who deserves all the love he is getting heading into the draft.

Conclusion: Top 5 Fantasy Football pick

If you have the 1.01, you’re going to be considering N’Keal Harry. There is a lot of buzz around him right now and if I had to guess, he’s likely to go somewhere in the late first round. Our guys have been projecting him to the Colts with the 26th overall pick. If he lands in an ideal spot then Harry will be under serious consideration for the 1.01 in rookie drafts.

Extreme Running Back Fantasy Point Variances

Aside from the fantasy playoffs, redraft and dynasty leagues can be viewed from a macro level where you can survive two or three bad weeks or roster decisions and succeed.  That’s quite the contrast from daily fantasy where every option on a slate is put under a microscope and one mistake can make or break your week. 

NFL players have their own tendencies where they perform better in various scenarios whether it be as a favorite or underdog, playing at home or in hostile territory, or when their respective team wins or loses a game.  We’re going to explore which players at each position performed at their best or worst in various situations from last season to try and help us discover ideal roster opportunities in daily lineups.  Note that these figures can vary from year to year when someone who performed better indoors the year before now suddenly performed better outside the following year.  Viewed in another light, these figures can be interpreted as an extension of consistency rankings.  

This piece isn’t just exclusive to DFS and has a place in non-DFS leagues where an available free agent may be in a better spot to perform than a rostered option that should be on the bench for a specific week.  This will be part two of a three-part series that continues with the running back position and only evaluates those that played a minimum of 12 games. 

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN A STRAIGHT-UP WIN

James White: 10.43: Dion Lewis heading to Tennessee and Rex Burkhead being injured for most of the season set James White for a career-high 87 receptions in 2018.  Considering his usage out of the backfield and the Patriots unusually lost five regular season games, you’d think this variance would be the inverse.  However, White averaged 5.9 receptions in wins vs 4.4 of them in losses.  

Marlon Mack: 9.25: When the Colts were victorious last season, Marlon Mack played an important role in those games.  He was rarely used out of the backfield which translated into horrible fantasy performances in games the Colts lost as Mack’s 10 carries and 0 touchdowns per game would indicate.  In games the Colts won, he saw 17.5 carries and averaged 1 touchdown per contest.

Philip Lindsay: 8.41: The undrafted rookie out of the University of Colorado turned heads when he averaged 6.14 yards per carry in the first two weeks against Seattle and Oakland.  Lindsay definitely turned heads in Bronco victories as he posted 102.33 rushing yards and 1.16 touchdowns compared to just 47 rushing yards and .22 touchdowns in Bronco losses

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN A STRAIGHT-UP LOSS

Tarik Cohen: 8.63: Matt Nagy utilized his talented pass catching back more than Dowell Loggains did in the Bears mundane offense in 2017.  Tarik Cohen had some solid games in those that the Bears won but he was much more impactful in ones that the Bears lost.  He saw more than double the receptions in Bears defeats at 7.5 per game compared to 3.42 of them in Bear victories.

Christian McCaffery: 7.81 (Excluding Week 17): It’s hard to believe that Carolina was 6-2 at one point before a tumultuous seven-game losing streak ruined the season.  At 30.79 FPPG in PPR scoring during that tailspin, Christian McCaffery was the #1 overall fantasy performer with 215.5 fantasy points, 27.9 points more than Ezekiel Elliott who was #2 in that seven-week span. 

Alvin Kamara: 6.54: Alvin Kamara didn’t suit up in Week 17 so he was only part of two of the three games the Saints lost in the regular season.  A large part of this variance is from Kamara’s season-best 43.1 fantasy point performance of 2018 in a Week 1 loss to the Buccaneers.  It will be interesting to see how he is utilized now that Mark Ingram has departed via free agency and replaced with Latavius Murray.

SMALLEST WIN/LOSS VARIANCE

Saquon Barkley: -.4: The rookie out of Penn State was a high floor, high ceiling option that was as reliable in five Giant wins as he was in 11 Giant defeats.  He surpassed double-digit fantasy points in PPR scoring in all but one game last year and exceeded 20 fantasy points a remarkable 12 times.  He is a true gamescript-independent back with a bright future at the pro level.  

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN HOME GAMES

Austin Ekeler: 8.46: Ekeler was nonexistent in games away from the StubHub Center.  In front of the home crowd, Ken Whisenhunt made sure to incorporate his pass catching back in the game plan.  69.2% of Ekeler’s receptions, 80.2% of his receiving yards, and 83% of his total touchdowns all occurred in home games last season.

Sony Michel: 7.35: The Patriots went undefeated at Gillette Stadium in 2018 which translated into an abundance of positive gamescript for Michel to operate.  He saw 19.5 carries for .83 touchdowns in home games compared to 13.29 carries for .14 touchdowns in hostile territory.

James White: 5.95: Gillette Stadium was where White excelled as he had a solid floor of 13.4 fantasy points along with eight of his 12 total touchdowns in 2018 occurring in Foxboro.  Those that rostered him in the divisional round weren’t the least bit surprised when he posted 15 catches against a Chargers defense susceptible to running backs out of the backfield.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN AWAY GAMES

Dion Lewis: 5.34: While Derrick Henry’s splits favored him playing at Nissan Stadium, the contrary applied to Dion Lewis who was more productive in enemy territory.  64.6% of his scrimmage yards along with all of his touchdowns took place outside of Nashville.  He certainly cashed in on his career year in New England in 2017 as he only hit double-digit fantasy points six times with the Titans after doing so eight times the year before.

Peyton Barber: 5.21: The Buccaneers rushing offense wasn’t anything to brag about in 2018 as Buccaneer running backs averaged 3.9 yards per carry, tied for the second-fewest with the Eagles.  Barber averaged 43.25 yards on the ground at Raymond James Stadium but was more useful in road games with 65.63 yards per game and four of his six touchdowns occurring in enemy territory.

Kenyan Drake: 4.33: Drake’s home/road rushing attempts and yards were all but identical but he was more involved out of the backfield in road games as the Dolphins went 1-7 away from Hard Rock Stadium.  Not to mention 67% of his touchdowns came in road affairs, a trend that carried over from 2017 as 75% of his touchdowns were road ones.

SMALLEST HOME/ROAD VARIANCE

Melvin Gordon: -.22: After nearly registering a double-digit variance that favored rostering him in road games, Gordon was the most consistent running back in this metric.  An MCL sprain in Week 12 put a damper on what was an incredible season for the fourth-year running back out of the University of Wisconsin.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN GAMES WHEN THE RESPECTIVE TEAM IS A FAVORITE

Joe Mixon: 11.58: 24.12 FPPG in PPR scoring as a favorite vs 12.54 FPPG as an underdog, no one saw a greater variance in this category than Joe Mixon as his Bengals went 4-1 in games they were favored.  He made his presence felt in those games as he converted 23 touches per game as a favorite into 1.4 touchdowns vs 18.33 touches per game as an underdog into .22 touchdowns.

Marlon Mack: 9.26: As indicated above, there was a strong positive correlation in Marlon Mack’s performance when the Colts won and that correlation is just as strong in games the Colts are favored.  9 of his 10 touchdowns took place with the Colts listed as a favorite along with a +6.67 touch differential for Mack in those games.  

Mark Ingram: 8.7: With the emergence of Alvin Kamara, 2018 was a disappointing season for Mark Ingram who went from 18 touches per game in 2017 to 13.25 touches last year.  Those who rostered him in matchups the Saints were underdogs were burned to the tune of a minuscule 4.9 FPPG when in that role compared to 13.6 FPPG when the Saints were favorites.  He’s bound for a rebound season in a Baltimore offense that should be rush-heavy with Lamar Jackson under center.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN GAMES WHEN THE RESPECTIVE TEAM IS AN UNDERDOG

Ezekiel Elliott: 9.73: Zeke possessed the highest variance as a favorite in 2017 with a +15.8 FPPG differential in games the Cowboys were favored.  He was on the opposite side of the spectrum last season as he posted the highest differential in games the Cowboys were getting points from their opponent.  Zeke averaged 131.75 scrimmage yards per game as an underdog with seven of nine touchdowns in that role.

Kenyan Drake: 6.95: In four games that the Dolphins were favorites, Kenyan Drake saw 7.75 touches for 35.75 scrimmage yards and .25 TDs.  He was much more productive when the Dolphins were underdogs as his 11.83 touches for 72.41 scrimmage yards and .66 TDs indicates.

Jordan Howard: 5.98: His yards per carry dropped from 4.06 in 2017 to 3.74 in 2018 and now finds himself as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles.  Not known for his work out of the backfield, he was more efficient in games that Chicago was an underdog with a floor of 11.3 FPPG in PPR scoring.

SMALLEST FAVORITE/UNDERDOG VARIANCE

Christian McCaffery: +.03 (Excluding Week 17): For those running backs that don’t see work out of the backfield, glancing over weekly spreads can be an indicative measure on what to expect from a certain player.  When your running back leads the league in receptions and targets, Christian McCaffery’s has a role whether the Panthers are leading or trailing.  Only he and Zeke had a floor of double-digit fantasy points last season after McCaffery had the highest floor among qualified running backs in 2017.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL AGAINST TEAMS RANKED IN THE TOP HALF IN RUSH DVOA

Ezekiel Elliott: 5.35: Against top 10 defensive rush DVOA opponents in Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, Ezekiel Elliott plowed his way for a league-best 105.42 rushing yards per game against top-ranked rushing defenses.  Having one of the better offensive lines in the league was a big contributor as well as slaughtering the Eagles to the tune of 132 yards per matchup on the ground.  That line returns intact with the hopes of getting Travis Frederick back from Guillain-Barré syndrome, something that can only help Zeke heading into 2019.

Kenyan Drake: 3.89: Consistency wasn’t Drake’s cup of tea last season as observed above by posting the second-highest variance in games the Dolphins were underdogs and having seven games where he didn’t reach double-digit fantasy points.  However, this variance is a compliment as he posted two of his three best performances against a Texans defense ranked 1st overall in rushing DVOA and a Colts defense ranked 4th.  The hope heading into 2019 is Brian Flores and Chad O’Shea utilizing him more than his 10.81 touches per game with Adam Gase in 2018.

Marlon Mack: 3.03: Used to seeing Mack’s name in this article yet?  He’s back for a third mention as his +3.03 FPPG differential against the better half in defensive rush DVOA last season was the third highest among qualified backs.  With the exception of two matchups against Jacksonville, Mack fared well against defenses that shut down the run, his primary means of producing on the field and in fantasy lineups.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL AGAINST TEAMS RANKED IN THE BOTTOM HALF IN RUSH DVOA 

Nick Chubb: 12.83: Stout rushing defenses were able to contain the rookie out of Georgia last season.  Inferior rushing defenses were subject to a thrashing as Nick Chubb scored all 10 of his touchdowns against defenses ranked in the bottom half in rush DVOA, something to keep in mind next season as eight matchups are against teams in the bottom half of this metric.  The eight doesn’t include two matchups against a Baltimore defense that suffered heavy losses in free agency.

Tarik Cohen: 8.04: He isn’t the primary rushing option in the Bears offense which means he needs to thrive in the passing game.  In six games against top-rated rushing defenses, they contained Cohen to 20 receiving yards and .17 receiving touchdowns per game out of the backfield.  Against the 10 other opponents ranked in the bottom half of defensive rush DVOA, Cohen tripled his receiving yard output and averaged .4 receiving touchdowns in those games.

James Conner: 7.79: Like Nick Chubb, James Conner pummeled those that were unable to shut down running backs.  With a +6.93 FPPG differential in games the Steelers were victorious and a +8.05 differential in games the Steelers covered the spread, it’s no surprise Conner was less impactful in games that featured defenses in the top half in rush DVOA as the Steelers went 2-3 against such opponents with Conner active (2-4 overall) vs 6-1-1 against the bottom half (7-2-1 overall)

SMALLEST RUSH DVOA VARIANCE

Todd Gurley: -.09: Not that you would have considered benching Gurley at any point but there’s a comfort in knowing you’re going to get a consistent level of fantasy production regardless of the opponent.  That’s what Gurley gave his fantasy owners last season with an average of 26.6 FPPG against defenses in both the top and bottom half in rush DVOA.  Now we await further clarification on whether arthritis in Gurley’s surgically repaired left knee will impact him moving forward.

WHO WERE THE MOST CONSISTENT RUNNING BACKS OF 2018?

Naturally, there is more of a positive correlation in running back production in games their respective teams win.  Those that see backfield involvement may see correlations that are stronger in losses, more specifically in PPR leagues than standard ones.  Thus, for determining who was most consistent, three of the other four metrics covered in this article will be used.  However, knowing how your running back is utilized in positive and negative gamescript is critical as you’re not going to roster one that sees no targets in games that you expect a certain team to lose and/or play catchup.

Two running backs stood out above their counterparts in 2018.  Todd Gurley may have burned some unlucky owners in the finals but he was certainly a key component in helping your fantasy team advance to that point.  He was also an automatic roster in the DFS landscape last season regardless of salaries creeping as high as 10K on DraftKings and 11K on FanDuel.  Undoubtedly, Gurley was the most consistent fantasy running back in 2018 as he didn’t possess a variance over one fantasy point in either of the evaluated home/road, favorite/underdog, or top/bottom rush DVOA metrics.  He is an important cog in Sean McVay’s high-octane offense that has the coaching staff and fans praying for a clean bill of health heading into 2019.

Seattle entered 2018 with a crowded backfield that eventually saw Chris Carson emerge as the #1 option.  He will enter training camp as that option but we’ll see how Pete Carroll better utilizes former 2018 first-round pick Rashaad Penny now that Mike Davis resides in Chicago.  Carson was important in Seattle’s push for a wild card as he had a floor of 13.3 fantasy points in Seattle’s final seven games in which they went 6-1.   In the three metrics being evaluated, Carson had a differential lower than 2.2 fantasy points in each.

Brett Rypien: Late Round QB has 3 Star Potential

Brett Rypien (6’1, 210), Quarterback, Boise State

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full database of 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer. All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

15.3 Aggregate Score (3 Star Prospect)

Brett Rypien is one of the smaller QBs in this less than savory draft, but the size takes nothing away from how good he can be. He did all the right things in college, ranking in the top 30 in several categories. On tape, he looks really good and reminds me of a shorter Drew Lock (who I love) and rightfully so. I came away with the feeling I rarely get with some of these prospects; he’s got the full package and I’m here to tell you why I believe he’ll be a top 5 QB from this class when it’s all said and done.

Arm Strength: Aggregate Score 4 (Personal Score 4)

Rypien doesn’t have that effortless rocket launcher like Haskins and Tyree Jackson, but he’s no slouch. Wherever the ball needs to be, he can get it there and with great velocity, especially on short routes. What this score of 4 says to me is that Rypien has got an above average arm and will do just fine in an NFL setting. You don’t need immaculate arm strength to succeed in the league.

Accuracy: Aggregate Score 3 (Personal Score 4)

Rypien was voted to have just an average arm and even received a 2 (below average) from one of our evaluators. I am not of the camp that thinks he isn’t above average with his accuracy. His issues lay in the fact that his receivers were not making the catches that they should have. It reminded me again of Drew Lock, who when Hall went down, the “other guys” struggled to make plays at the same level. His ball placement is one of the best in this class and will help separate him in the long run.

Decision Making: Aggregate Score 2.3 (Personal Score 3)

His decision making is not the best, but it’s not the worst either. I don’t think he’s below average as his aggregate score suggests, I just think he’s trying to force his options into plays that they can’t complete. It kind of goes into his accuracy “issues” where he’s trying to make up for what he doesn’t have on the field by making them better but he’s not quite there yet. I’m thinking he needs average to above average weapons early on to succeed until he gets better here. However, I absolutely think that he will be fine going through his progressions on the next level and does not struggle with that side of his game at all.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score 2.3 (Personal Score 3)

This is a metric I’m not too worried about given the style of QB I think he is (a pocket passer), but it is worth noting that he can “get out and boogey” similar to some other QBs in this draft. What I mean by “get out and boogey” is that these guys have the capability to escape when the pocket breaks down as well as run for some short yardage when a play breaks down.

Mechanics: Aggregate Score 3.6 (Personal Score 4)

Rypien is pretty good here but isn’t going to blow evaluators away. The only little red flag I have on him is that he doesn’t keep consistent in some games and ends up throwing wobblers. Those tight spirals you want to see get lost on him sometimes but again, I think that has to do with the same reasonings I had with his decision making. Trying to force the issue pulled him out of comfort zones in a bad way and caused his mechanics to be off. This is my issue with him and I know it’s something that can be corrected on the next level.

Conclusion: 4th-Waivers

There’s prospects that you want to let fall because there’s no way they get drafted. Rypien is not one of those prospects. I say that because in a few years (meaning he still needs to sit and learn) Rypien will easily be a starter in this league. He has patience, has the right ideas when operating out of the pocket and has enough mobility to not be excessively sacked. My best comp I can give for him in terms of career is this: He’ll be the QB12-15 most of his career with a pro bowl or two here or there and you can take that to the bank. I don’t feel like many of the QBs in this draft will even sniff that.

3 Rounds of Mock Draft for 2019 NFL Draft: AFC Teams

It is officially NFL Draft season! To celebrate the Fanalysts dynasty team performed a 3 round mock draft for all 32 NFL Teams. The results of the draft, broken down by division then team, are listed below. Every team has a full list of their draft picks and an analysis of their overall 3 round draft.

This article features the AFC teams. Keep an eye out for the NFC article!

For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out the 48 Report: our 2019 Rookie Database

AFC East

New England Patriots

1st Round, 32nd Overall: Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama

2nd Round, 56th Overall: Zach Allen, DE, Boston College

2nd Round, 64th Overall: Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia

3rd Round, 73rd Overall: Andy Isabella, WR, UMass

3rd Round, 97th Overall: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

3rd Round, 101st Overall: Dax Raymond, TE, Utah State

Analysis: The Patriots have 12 picks and 6 in the top 101 selections. Let’s start with the fact that they are practically guaranteed to be on the move in this draft. Expect trades up and down the board from New England. With that said, doubling up at tight end and receiver makes sense due to the Gronk-sized hole in the offense along with the thin depth at WR. Zach Allen gives them a nice piece to work with along the defensive line and Daniel Jones falls right into their laps as a possible Brady replacement down the line.

Eric Adams

Buffalo Bills

Round 1, 9th Overall: Cody Ford, T, Oklahoma

Round 2, 40th Overall: Dexter Lawrence, IDL, Clemson

Round 3, 74th Overall: Miles Boykin, WR, Notre Dame

Analysis: The Bills can go so many ways with their first pick but when you have a young passer, it is wise to protect him and bringing in a first round talent on the offensive line does just that. In the second, Sean McDermott appeases his defensive roots by bringing in monster defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence from that vaunted Clemson defense. They round out their first 3 picks with big bodied Miles Boykin from Notre Dame to give Josh Allen a nice big receiving threat.

Eric Adams

New York Jets

Round 1, 3rd Overall: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky

Round 3, 68th Overall: Trey Pipkins, T, Sioux Falls

Round 3, 93rd Overall: Jamel Dean, CB, Auburn

Analysis: Trey Pipkins should be a valuable piece along the offensive line for Adam Gase. See the aforementioned analysis on Buffalo protecting its young QB and apply it here. Jamel Dean hopefully can end the rut of poor corner play for the Jets. I want to focus on Josh Allen here for a minute. When beating Tom Brady and the Patriots, one has to look at how they were beat. Edge. Rushers. Von Miller victimized the Patriots when the Broncos went on a run. The Eagles and Giants had defensive line talent galore. The Jets need to find their Von Miller. They NEED to take an edge rusher at 3.

Eric Adams

Miami Dolphins

Round 1, 13th Overall: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

Round 2, 48th Overall: David Sills V, WR, West Virginia

Round 3, 78th Overall: Jaylon Ferguson, EDGE, Louisiana Tech

Analysis: I love this draft for the Dolphins. It won’t happen, but Kyler Murray sliding to 13 would be a dream come true and would also speed up the rebuilding process. Again, it won’t happen because he is going to go 1st overall but it’s a nice thought. David Sills V could come in and be the WR1 right away for Miami. I love his game and he has constantly produced when counted on. Jaylon Ferguson can be plugged in right away on the defensive line as a replacement for either departing edge rusher in Cameron Wake or Robert Quinn.

Eric Adams

AFC North:

Baltimore Ravens

Round 1, 22nd Overall: N’Keal Harry, WR, ASU

Round 3, 85th Overall: Ben Powers, iOL, Oklahoma

Round 3, 102nd Overall: Wyatt Ray, EDGE, Boston College

Analysis: As a Steelers fan, I don’t like these picks because they’re really good. Oklahoma’s offensive line was really good and Powers is a perfect fit for a team who will run a lot. Even though they will run a lot, the signing of new OC Greg Roman seems to brings the hope they will pass more than last year. N’Keal Harry will directly benefit instead of going to Baltimore to not do much at all. Wyatt Ray, somewhat of a sleeper, is another great fit for an already great defense.

Christopher Nelson

Cincinnati Bengals

Round 1, 11th Overall: Devin White, LB, LSU

Round 2, 42nd Overall: Dawson Knox, TE, Ole Miss

Round 3, 72nd Overall: David Edwards, OT, Wisconsin

Analysis: Burfict is finally gone and Devin White can easily come in to replace that basket case.
Both David Edwards and Dawson Knox are some great low-key value for the offensive line to further to protect Andy Dalton and aid in the run game. I absolutely love Dawson Knox and believe he is top 3 at the position. Eifert can’t stay healthy and Uzomah is just an ok receiving option. Knox will be a great replacement for the future or a TE you can run out with Uzomah or Eifert similar to how Baltimore does.

Christopher Nelson

Cleveland Browns

Round 2, 49th Overall: Nassir Adderley, S, Delaware

Round 3, 80th Overall: Joejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt

Analysis: Even with the addition of Eric Murray, I still think the Browns are going to need extra additions to their secondary and these guys should be available. If the Browns are going to go to the next level and stop “Browns-ing” things up, then they need to build solid depth and always have competition within the defense. In hindsight, I could have gone with an offensive line pick but I still like how this shook out for them.

Christopher Nelson

Pittsburgh Steelers

Round 1, 20th Overall: Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State

Round 2, 52nd Overall: Trayvon Mullen, CB, Clemson

Round 3, 66th Overall: Khalil Hodge, LB, Buffalo

Round 3, 83rd Overall: Drew Sample, TE, Washington

Analysis: After many mocks I finally got to draft for my team and it was glorious. The Steelers filled a lot of needs here including a great one in Kelvin Harmon (my WR1) to play alongside Juju, Switzer, Moncrief and Washington. Travon Mullen and Khalil Hodge are great underappreciated gems in this draft and I hope we land one of them. Drew Sample gives us both depth and a good secondary TE. We’ve taken quite a hit losing both Jesse James and Grimble to free agency and Sample is one of my favorites who was still on the board.

Christopher Nelson

AFC West

Oakland Raiders

Round 1, 4th Overall: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

Round 1, 24th Overall: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

Round 1, 27th Overall: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

Round 2, 35th Overall: Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina

Analysis: This is the ideal draft for the Oakland Raiders-who need help pretty much everywhere on their roster. Williams dropping to them at 4th overall is both realistic and very fortunate-he is possibly the best talent in this draft. Noah Fant and Deebo Samuel give Derek Carr a big play tight end and a very efficient slot wide receiver to compliment Brown and Williams’ roles on the Oakland offense. Some teams are cold on Greedy Williams, but controversy has never steered the Raiders away from talent; they score big with Williams’ slide.

Matt Hicks

Denver Broncos

Round 1, 10th Overall: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

Round 2, 41st Overall: Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M

Round 3, 71st Overall: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

Analysis: Lock seems destined for Denver-even with Flacco being hyped up as more than a bridge quarterback. They filled major needs in free agency which allow them to invest in their future quarterback and a very good supporting weapon in Sternberger. Thompson had no business slipping to them in the 3rd round and makes for a huge value.  Overall the Broncos pick value over need and make a long term invest in their roster.

Matt Hicks

Kansas City Chiefs

Round 1, 29th Overall: Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida

Round 2, 61st Overall: David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

Round 2, 63rd Overall: Dre’Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State

Round 3, 92nd Overall: Beau Benzschawel, iOL, Wisconsin

With four picks in the first three rounds, the Chiefs are just adding to an already talented roster. Jachai Polite is a raw player but very talented player at what is all of a sudden a position of need for a team that just lost Justin Houston and Dee Ford in quick succession. Montgomery helps give them options after moving on from Kareem Hunt. I see Montgomery as the most complete and most talented back in this class and to put him in this offense would really give him a chance to shine. Jones provides depth on the defensive line as well an explosive ceiling. As for Benzschawel, you can never have enough good quality offensive linemen.

Josh Padgett

Los Angeles Chargers

Round 1, 28th Overall: Jeffrey Simmons, DT, Mississippi State

Round 2, 60th Overall: Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State

Round 3, 91st Overall: Keesean Johnson, WR, Fresno State

The Chargers add college teammates in this scenario. Simmons is one of the most talented players in the draft. Concerns raised about his character after an altercation involving a woman when he was 18 seem to be behind him. He has had no other off the field issues and from what I have read, seems to be an upstanding young man. Talent wise, this is a steal for the Chargers at a position of need.  Pairing him with teammate and leader Johnathan Abram only makes things better for them. Abram also fills a position of need and while he plays an enforcer safety type role that seems to be leaning towards outdated in the NFL, his athleticism and strong corner play should help him continue to develop as a player in this defense. Keesean Johnson is heralded as one of the best route runners in this class and will give Rivers another option after the departure of Tyrell Williams (and Antonio Gates).

Josh Padgett

AFC South

Jacksonville Jaguars

Round 1, 7th Overall: DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

Round 2, 38th Overall: Eric McCoy, iOL, Texas A&M

Round 3, 69th Overall: Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M

The Jaguars need to improve their offense after committing to Nick Foles as their new quarterback. Keeping him clean and giving him playmakers to throw the ball to should be paramount in this draft. Metcalf brings an archetype that is not found on this roster in a true boundary receiver that will win with size and speed. He could fill a role similar to Alshon Jeffrey for Foles. McCoy will help solidify the front line. Williams will provide Foles with two big boosts. A pass catching running back to replace TJ Yeldon, and another body to help keep Fournette from being overworked and make this running game as efficient as possible.

Josh Padgett

Tennessee Titans

Round 1, 19th Overall: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson

Round 2, 51st Overall: Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame

Round 3, 82nd Overall: Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor

It is unclear what the Titans are looking to do currently. The concern surrounding Mariota is rising with the acquisition of Ryan Tannehill. Without a lot of direction right now, the Titans select the best player on the board in rounds 1 and 2 to help continue to build a talented roster around the question mark at quarterback.  Jurrell Casey would be a terrific mentor for both Ferrell and Tillery and that would be one formidable defensive front to run or pass against. Jalen Hurd is an interesting player for this team as a convert to wideout from running back. He could play a lot of roles for this team and could allow an offense that has lost a lot of creativity to become a little less predictable.

Josh Padgett

Houston Texans

Round 1, 23rd Overall: Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State

Round 2, 54th Overall: Yodney Cajuste, OT, West Virginia

Round 2, 55th Overall: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple

Round 3, 86th Overall: Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma

The Texans need so much offensive line help that their first two picks are offensive tackles and it is likely that both will start day 1 for this team. Risner slides in at left tackle with Cajuste at right and this team can hopefully start to take advantage of the playmakers they have on the offensive side of the ball. Rock Ya-Sin is also a day 1 starter simply by being less that 38,000 years old. An injection of youth into this Texans secondary is needed desperately. Rodney Anderson is a bit of a luxury pick that could pan out in a big way. With Lamar Miller scheduled to be a free agent in 2020, Anderson would get a year to adjust to the physicality of the NFL game with a more limited workload before getting the opportunity to be the workhorse his talent dictates that he is. This would hopefully help the medical staff stay ahead of any injury concerns with Anderson as well.

Josh Padgett

Indianapolis Colts

Round 1, 26th Overall: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

Round 2, 34th Overall: AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss

Round 2, 59th Overall: Christian Miller, EDGE, Alabama

Round 3, 89th Overall: Drue Tranquill, LB, Notre Dame

Wilkins is the consensus pick in mock drafts for the Colts at 26. If he falls to them, there is a very good chance they scoop him up. Both an on-field and locker room fit, Wilkins can become a leader on this defense that is much improved with the additions of guys like Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker. Christian Miller and Drue Tranquill also fill needs for depth and talent at outside linebacker. If the Colts don’t take a receiver by the end of the 3rd round on draft day, I will be flabbergasted. Devin Funchess is not the long term answer. AJ Brown is a great fit for this offense. A player who will allow TY Hilton to move around the formation by being flexible himself, and a player who can take the workload of 150 targets with an NFL frame are exactly what this offense needs. A reliable playmaker with strong hands and great route running, the one thing Brown will need to work on is release, a concern mitigated by his strength and short area quickness.

Josh Padgett

Post-NFL Combine Fantasy Football Ranking for the 2019 Wide Receiver Class

This article is an update to my original 2019 NFL Draft wide receiver rankings. My rankings specifically focus on the prospect’s ability to contribute to fantasy football rosters.

If you have not already, I encourage you to read my first article-I will reference it multiple times throughout this article. For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out the 48 Report: our 2019 Rookie Database


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For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out the 48 Report: our 2019 Rookie Database

Tier 1

RankChangeWide Receiver CollegeHeightWeight
1+1N’Keal HarryArizona State6’4″213
2+2DK MetcalfOle Miss6’4″228
3-2Kelvin HarmonNC State6’2″221
4-1Hakeem ButlerIowa State6’6″225
5AJ BrownOle Miss6’1″225

These 5 wide receivers continue to separate themselves from the rest of the 2019 NFL Draft class. What is not the same, however, is how they compare to each other.

Kelvin Harmon, who was my WR1 pre-combine, takes a big slide to WR3 post-combine. Harmon’s size was impressive: he weighed into the 89th percentile and his height puts him in the 76th percentile. Everything else, though, was far from impressive. He failed to score above the 28th percentile in the 40 yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone drill, and 20 yard shuttle. The combine does not highlight the things that I love about Harmon’s tape, so I’m not willing to let him slide too far in my rankings-but I can’t ignore this poor performance.

DK Metcalf had a freakish combine performance. He placed in the 95th percentile in 40 yard dash (at 6’4″ 228), the 93rd percentile in the vertical jump, and 97th percentile in the broad jump, and 99th percentile in bench press. Metcalf is getting knocked, however, for poor 3-cone drill and 20 yard shuttle scores; both of which were in the 3rd percentile or lower. Metcalf continues to suggest he will be boom/bust, but in fantasy football he is a risk worth investing in right now.

N’Keal Harry had a solid combine performance, and rose as a result of Harmon’s poor combine. Harry continues to be the most well rounded prospect in this draft class, giving him a very attractive ceiling for fantasy football players. Hakeem Butler had a solid combine, but slid because it was not to the level of Metcalf’s.

AJ Brown remains a safe option with your 1.05 overall pick-he is flying under the radar and has the tape to suggest he could be one of the best values of this draft class.

Tier 2

RankChangeWide RecieverCollegeHeightWeight
6+2Parris CampbellOhio State6’1″208
7+2Deebo SamuelSouth Carolina6’0″210
8+3Emanuel HallMissouri6’3″195

This tier is small, but mighty. These 3 wide receivers have separated themselves and have built momentum over the course of the last month.

Campbell jumped up from 8 to 6 in my rankings post-combine because it became much clearer to me how fast he is. Campbell comes off athletic and quick on tape, but his 4.31 40-yard dash proves to me he a whole new level of fast. He also proved his agility-placing in the 90th percentile in the 20-yard shuttle. Campbell also placed in the 92nd percentile in the vertical jump and 98th percentile in the broad jump.

I’m kicking myself for ranking Hall 11th overall pre-combine. I loved his tape and felt he could be a great “Y” receiver, but I let his limited route tree and injury history hold me back. His combine, though, proves his speed and athleticism cannot be denied. Hall ran a 4.39 40 yard dash; placing in the 87th percentile. He also jumped in the 98th percentile in the vertical jump and the 99th percentile in the broad jump.


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Tier 3

RankChangeWide RecieverCollegeHeightWeight
9NR*Stanley MorganNebraska6’1″200
10-3Jalen HurdBaylor6’4″217
11NR*Dillon MitchellOregon6’2″189
12NR*Terry McLaurinOhio State6’1″205
13NR*Miles BoykinNotre Dame6’4″228
14+1JJ Arcega-WhitesideStanford6’3225

*NR=Not Ranked. These are players who did not have film reviews at the time of my pre-combine article.

This tier is primarily players who I had not done film reviews of pre-combine. Hurd slid as a result of their additions, and because he missed the combine with a minor injury. Arcega-Whiteside also did not test at the combine but gets a slight bump from additional film review on him.

Stanley Morgan is an exciting gadget player. He gets off the line of scrimmage with aggressive hands and accelerates downfield very quickly. He catches almost every ball thrown his way and wins positioning consistently over bigger defenders. He is elusive, shifty, and has great vision with the ball in his hand-he has big YAC upside and could make a dangerous “Y” or slot receiver for an NFL squad.

It is fitting that Dillon Mitchell is ranked next to Hurd, because he is my next draft crush. He is seriously fast downfield and gets off the line of scrimmage very quickly. He has a diverse route tree and makes defenders look silly when he dekes them with his hip and shoulder movements. He is very athletic and Oregon lined him up outside, as a big slot, and often utilized him on jet sweeps. He has inconsistent hands, specifically when it comes to contested pass situations, but is upside is very appealing.

McLaurin’s 4.35 40 yard dash (91st percentile) got him on the radar of a lot of fantasy football players. His tape does show that burning defenders on go-routes is routine for this buckeye. He has great footwork and makes Big 10 defenders regret playing press coverage on him. He’s a scrappy player but he looks and plays very small on tape-often getting lit up by defenders. His speed makes him appealing, but his role in the NFL may be limited to the slot.

Miles Boykin went from unmentioned to unforgettable in Indianapolis. Boykin measured into at least the 80th percentile in: height, weight, wingspan, arm length, and hand size. He ran a 4.42 40 yard dash (83rd percentile)-which is very impressive for his size. He also placed in the 98th percentile in vertical jump and 99th percentile in broad jump. He placed in the 86th percentile in the 20 yard shuttle. His tape shows an athletic player who consistently beats defensive backs off the line of scrimmage. He lines up all over the field and is lethal at both the 2nd and 3rd levels of the field. His versatility is sure to be appealing to NFL teams, and in the right landing spot Boykin may sky rocket up my rankings.

Tier 4

RankChangeWide RecieverCollegeHeightWeight
15-5Marquise BrownOklahoma5’10”168
16-4Riley RidleyGeorgia6’2200
17-3Andy IsabellaU Mass5’10”190
18-5Anthony JohnsonBuffalo6’2207
19-13Lil’ Jordan HumphreyTexas6’4″225

Tier 4 is a group of receivers that have all slid a decent amount since my first rankings.

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown’s tape didn’t impress me, and he has missed the majority of the NFL Draft process due to a lisfranc injury. I have concerns as to whether he can get on the field quickly in the NFL and how far his draft capital will plummet.

Riley Ridley is another big name who did not impress me under original film review. He continues to slide as a result of a mediocre combine and the addition of new players into my rankings.

Isabella and Anthony Johnson’s slides are also primarily because of low film reviews and the addition of new players.

Lil’ Jordan Humphrey had an atrocious pro day that forced me to reconsider the athleticism I saw on tape. There is still a lot to like about his tape but it appears NFL teams have largely dropped him from day 2 or earlier consideration. His unique skillset and teams turning cold on him leave too many red flags to justify what was originally a bullish stance on him.

Tier 5

RankChangeWide Receiver CollegeHeightWeight
20NR*Hunter RenfrowClemson5’10”180
21-5Greg DortchWake Forest5’9″170
22NR*KeeSean JohnsonFresno State6’2″199
23-6DeMarkus LodgeOle Miss6’2″200
24NR*David SillsWest Viginia6’4″210

*NR=Not Ranked. These are players who did not have film reviews at the time of my pre-combine article.

Tier 5 is filled with dart-throw players; they are likely to go in the late rounds of your fantasy football rookie drafts and have low potential of turning into roster-changing caliber players.

Hunter Renfrow can be a good player in the NFL, but I don’t see, from his tape, a player who is likely to have a high impact in terms of fantasy football. He has good footwork that helps him get off the line of scrimmage quickly and be effective on comeback routes. He is elusive with the ball in his hand and has upside as a YAC player. His routes, however, are limited to the first third of the field; he rarely sees targets past 5-8 yards off the line of scrimmage. That, combined with his size make me question if he can emerge from a pigeon-holed slot role in the NFL.

KeeSean Johnson flashes some nice highlight reel plays. He moves quickly over the middle of the field, burns up the sideline, and extends his large frame to make himself a big target. He has great footwork and works a fairly built-out route tree. Johnson, though, has inconsistent hands and struggles to consistently perform on tape. That, in addition to the low level of competition he had to perform against at Fresno State leave him in dart-throw territory.

David Sills had good production in Will Grier’s West Virginia offense. He has a solid route tree, can accelerate well downfield, and has a large body. Sills, though, screamed JAG (just another guy) to me. He plays like an “X” receiver but doesn’t consistently position his body well, is rigid, and unable to go up and get balls. Sills’ biggest red flag, though, is his hands. He drops a lot of balls; both contested and uncontested. His drop rate shows a lack of focus and an inability to perform at the level of the “X” receiver NFL teams would likely want him to be.

Extreme Quarterback Fantasy Point Variances

Aside from the fantasy playoffs, redraft and dynasty leagues can be viewed from a macro level where you can survive two or three bad weeks or roster decisions and succeed.  That’s quite the contrast from daily fantasy where every option on a slate is put under a microscope and one mistake can make or break your week. 

NFL players have their own tendencies where they perform better in various scenarios whether it be as a favorite or underdog, playing at home or in hostile territory, or when their respective team wins or loses a game.  We’re going to explore which players at each position performed at their best or worst in various situations from last season to try and help us discover ideal roster opportunities in daily lineups.  Note that these figures can vary from year to year when someone who performed better indoors the year before now suddenly performed better outside the following year.  Viewed in another light, these variances can be interpreted as an extension of consistency rankings.  

This piece isn’t just exclusive to DFS and has a place in non-DFS leagues where an available free agent may be in a better spot to perform than a rostered option that should be on the bench for a specific week.  This will be part one of a three-part series starting with the quarterback position and only evaluates those that played a minimum of 12 games. 

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN A STRAIGHT-UP WIN

Josh Allen: 11.29: A key to success for the rookie quarterback was the Bills going 5-1 in games he rushed for at least one touchdown.  Defenses that were able to keep him in the pocket were able to shut Josh Allen down as he only averaged 13.8 FPPG in seven Buffalo losses last year.  He’ll need to become a much more effective passer in conjunction with his ability to utilize his legs which should level out this extreme variance.

Dak Prescott: 8.52: Dak had a +4.64 differential in games the Cowboys won in 2017 and that differential increased in 2018.  As Dak goes, so does Dallas as combining passing and rushing touchdowns, he averaged 2.2 touchdowns and .2 interceptions in 10 wins vs 1 touchdown and 1 interception in six losses.

Aaron Rodgers: 6.64 (Excluding Week 17): Certainly a positive regression candidate for 2019, it wasn’t the Aaron Rodgers we’re accustomed to seeing last season as he threw just 25 passing touchdowns, the fewest in a season in which he played 15 games.  Once guaranteed wins for the Packers, the Bears and Vikings are much improved defensively as the team went 0-3-1 with Rodgers averaging 1.25 touchdowns in that span.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN A STRAIGHT-UP LOSS

Mitchell Trubisky: 7.4: Matt Nagy’s impact on Trubisky cannot be understated as the Bears offense in 2017 was simply inept under offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains.  The 2nd year quarterback averaged 273 passing yards and 1.66 passing touchdowns in Bears losses this season compared to a horrid 187 passing yards and .62 passing touchdowns in losses in his rookie campaign.  

DeShaun Watson: 3.22: Considering he set the world on fire before tearing his ACL in 2017, regression was bound to hit as he threw for more than two touchdown passes just once last year.  He had five 300 passing yard games, three of them in losses.  Also in games that the Texans lost, Watson averaged 6.48 FPPG with his legs vs 4.79 FPPG in Texan wins.

Patrick Mahomes: 2.79: It’s extremely rare to see an offense score 40 points and 50 points on separate occasions and lose both of those games.  Regardless of the splits, Mahomes undoubtedly will be the first quarterback off the board in every draft come August.

SMALLEST WIN/LOSS VARIANCE

Philip Rivers: +.18: Aside from a rough December, the 15-year veteran was as consistent as he could be last season as he threw for at least two touchdowns in all but three games.  His .18 FPPG win/loss differential was a vast improvement upon the +5.58 FPPG differential he saw in Charger victories last season.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN HOME GAMES

Jared Goff: 10.71: Goff averaged 2.75 passing touchdowns at home vs 1.25 of them away from the LA Memorial Coliseum.  Having played both high school and college ball in beautiful California weather, he fared horribly in two games under 30 degrees last season, averaging a minuscule 6.07 FPPG in those contests.  Keep in mind the Rams take trips to Carolina, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland in 2019, venues that can get cold in December if they are required to travel east late next season.

Mitchell Trubisky: 10.64: Trubisky eclipsed 300 passing yards four times in 2018 with three of those occurrences at Soldier Field.  Not to mention throwing for 2.37 passing touchdowns in front of the Chicago faithful vs .83 of them in hostile territory.

Sam Darnold: 9.91: If Sam Darnold played the entire season at MetLife Stadium, he would have measured out as the QB6 in 2018.  To level out this variance, Darnold will need to become more efficient in road games as he threw for 200+ passing yards just once to go along with his .71 passing touchdowns and 1.5 turnovers in hostile territory.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN AWAY GAMES

Patrick Mahomes: 8.36: The Chiefs were a solid defensive unit at the friendly confines of Arrowhead Stadium, allowing just 17.97 points per game.  Removed from there, their atrocious defense that surrendered 34.63 points per game put them in shootouts that assisted the 2018 MVP in generating some of the production that he did in three road losses.

Eli Manning: 6.1: The addition of Saquon Barkley and having ODB for most of 2018 helped Eli put together a better campaign then the dud from 2017.  However, it was the tale of two quarterbacks as road Eli outshined home Eli last season.  Away from MetLife Stadium, Manning threw twice as many touchdowns and committed half as many turnovers compared to playing at home. 

Kirk Cousins: 3.2: Minnesota invested $84 million in guarantees in Kirk Cousins and didn’t get their money’s worth in the first year of the three-year deal.  Other than the two road games against the Packers and Rams, his two best performances of 2018 and the main contributor of this home/road split, it was a less than stellar campaign that was encapsulated by a week 17 loss that knocked the Vikings out of playoff contention.

SMALLEST HOME/ROAD VARIANCE

Ben Roethlisberger: -.06: Big Ben’s spot in this category is shocking considering his splits over the last few years heavily favored him playing at Heinz Field.  He quietly had a great 2018 as the QB3 with his 22.44 FPPG in an offense with James Conner as the starting running back in place of a disgruntled Le’Veon Bell.  The question now becomes how the offense performs without Antonio Brown lining up as a Steeler.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL AGAINST TEAMS OVER .500

Marcus Mariota: 9.84: Truth be told, Mariota has been mediocre at best since coming into the league in 2015.  However, he fared much better against teams that made the playoffs last season as he only surpassed double-digit fantasy points against those under .500 just once in seven opportunities.

DeShaun Watson: 6.5: While the Texans went just 3-4 against opponents with a winning record, the second-year quarterback rose to the occasion in those matchups as he posted 25 fantasy point performances in four of those seven games.  

Jared Goff: 5.85: Aside from being stymied by a tenacious Chicago defense in Week 14, Goff three for over 300 yards against every other opponent that was over .500.  This was a substantial improvement from 2017 as he only did so in two of seven opportunities and continues to show why he was the #1 overall selection in the 2016 draft.

LARGEST DIFFERENT AGAINST TEAMS AT .500 OR BELOW

Josh Allen: 11.2: No one feasted on inferior opponents better than Allen as they had no answer for him scrambling out of the pocket.  Line him up against better competition and they not only kept him in the pocket but prevented him from scoring more than 15 fantasy points just once against an opponent over .500

Aaron Rodgers: 6.34 (Excluding Week 17): Mentioned above as having one of the higher variances in straight-up victories, Rodgers was more successful against weaker opponents, going 5-3 against those under .500.  We’re not used to seeing him struggle against stiffer competition as the Packers went 1-5-1 against those with winning records.

Matt Ryan 6.22: Like the Packers, the Falcons also struggled against opponents over .500 as they went 0-6 against those teams.  Unless it was against the Saints, Matt Ryan was rendered useless against winning competition.  Against those under .500, Matt Ryan eclipsed 20 fantasy points in 9 of 10 opportunities, a big contributor to his QB2 performance of 2018.

SMALLEST WINNING/LOSING RECORD VARIANCE

Case Keenum: -.28: If Case Keenum was consistent in one particular category, it was being awful as his 14.49 FPPG last season would indicate.  John Elway and the Broncos have not remedied their quarterback situation since Peyton Manning retired and will now start their fifth different quarterback in Joe Flacco come September 8th, 2019.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN GAMES WHEN RESPECTIVE TEAM IS A FAVORITE

Derek Carr: 6.69: Yes, the Raiders we’re favored twice last season and one of those games was the shootout against the Browns in which Derek Carr went off for 33.58 fantasy points.  2019 shows promise with the acquisitions of Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams, both substantial improvements from the options that were available to Carr in 2018.

Josh Rosen: 5.87 (From Week 4 On): Things can only improve for an Arizona offense that finished dead last in a multitude of offensive metrics.  In 12 of the 13 games that Josh Rosen entered the matchup as an underdog, he averaged 9.57 FPPG, a main contributor this variance is as high as it is given Rosen only played in one game as a favorite.

Mitchell Trubisky: 5.20: Seeing Trubisky’s name for the third time in this article should hint at his inconsistency.  In games as a favorite, he threw for 2.1 touchdowns vs just .75 of them in the four games that the Bears were underdogs.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN GAMES WHEN RESPECTIVE TEAM IS AN UNDERDOG

Drew Brees: 11.04: The Saints were anything but underdogs in 2018 but when put in that role, Drew Brees put on two of his best three fantasy performances in that role against the Falcons in Week 3 and the Rams in Week 9.  His 29.59 FPPG as a dog trailed only one quarterback to be described below.

Patrick Mahomes: 9.77: When put in the underdog role, the Kansas City offense averaged 42.75 points per game.  Of course their defense put them in a position to have to score at will.  In the four games the Chiefs were not favored, Mahomes averaged a remarkable 34.27 FPPG.

Marcus Mariota: 9.37: It’s almost inexplicable how bad Marcus Mariota performed as a favorite.  His 7.49 FPPG is nearly eight fantasy points worse than the next quarterback with the least fantasy production in that role in Josh Rosen.  It’s extremely difficult to bank on Mariota playing as well as he did against stronger competition in 2019 but also a guarantee he will fare much better against inferior competition.

SMALLEST FAVORITE/UNDERDOG VARIANCE

Baker Mayfield: -.36: Mayfield’s final two games should give the Dawg Pound plenty of hope as he slaughtered the Bengals as an 9.5-point favorite as well as held his own against the Ravens as a 7-point underdog in a game that Baltimore needed to win to advance to the postseason.  Cleveland may have finally figured out the quarterback fiasco that has plagued this franchise for the better part of two decades.

WHO WAS THE MOST CONSISTENT QUARTERBACK OF 2018?

Three quarterbacks come to mind based off the evaluated metrics in this article, the first being the overall #1 pick in the 2018 NFL draft.  Baker Mayfield performed admirably in his rookie season and closed out the second half strong once Hue Jackson and Todd Haley were removed from the equation and replaced with eventual head coach Freddie Kitchens.  With an average of 18.29 FPPG, he didn’t have a variance of over two fantasy points in any metric listed above and now has Odell Beckham as a target heading into 2019.

Philip Rivers was just as reliable as Mayfield as he also didn’t exceed a two point variance in any of the above evaluations.  Remove the final four weeks from the equation and Rivers had a solid floor of 15 fantasy points in the first 12 games.  He was far more consistent than 2017 when he was most efficient in games that the Chargers either won straight-up or were a favorite.

The massive home/road splits were always associated with Ben Roethlisberger but his 2017 splits were volatile in numerous categories.  His win/loss, home/road, and favorite/underdog were at a minimum of 5.6 fantasy points.  Fast forward to last season and he displayed more balance in his QB3 campaign as no variance was greater than three.

The New England Patriots 2019 NFL Draft Profile

New England Patriots 2018 Recap

Another year, another championship for the greatest dynasty in American sports history. Hate ‘em or hate ‘em, you have to respect what this team is able to accomplish year in and year out in the salary cap era of the NFL. The year was unlike any other run for the Patriots. However, it began with something that has been a bit too familiar in recent seasons and that was a bumpy September. After knocking off the Texans in Week 1, the Pats were blown out in Jacksonville and then lost an embarrassing match up to the Lions on Sunday Night Football. A lack of WR depth forced them to trade for much maligned wide out Josh Gordon. After the return of Julian Edelman from a 4-week suspension, the Patriots got back on track.

They looked sharp until a rough afternoon in Tennessee caused them to limp into the bye week. The Patriots hit rock bottom when they allowed a fail Mary to succeed in Miami, losing to the Dolphins in improbable fashion. They were the 3rd seed in the conference and would lose the next week to Pittsburgh. After a stumble by Houston, they regained the number 2 seed and would reinvent themselves around a strong defense and dominant run game. That formula would carry them to their 6th Super Bowl title in the Brady-Belichick era.

The 2018 NFL Draft was mostly a wash for New England. Ja’Whaun Bentley looked very promising early on but suffered a torn biceps and was lost for the season. Isaiah Wynn, the teams top pick, suffered a blown Achilles in the preseason. Duke Dawson lurked in the background mostly in a redshirt year. The best pick for the Patriots came from 1st round running back Sony Michel. Michel turned into a workhorse in an offense known for taking a committee approach. He is one of the biggest reasons the Patriots went on to win the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots 2019 NFL Draft Needs:

Bill Belichick and Nick Caserio are the ones who call the shots in New England come draft time. They will have more than enough draft capital to maneuver around the board, holding 12 picks total and 6 in the top 101. The needs are as follows:

  • TE: The retirement of Rob Gronkowski created a Gronk-sized hole in the Patriots offense. They will be the first to tell you that there is no replacing Rob Gronkowski with one player. I expect the Patriots to take at least 1 and maybe even 2 tight ends in the Draft.
  • WR: The Patriots’ depth chart at WR is, for lack of a better term, unheralded. After Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman (who turns 33 in May), the Pats are relying on Phillip Dorsett, journeyman Bruce Ellington and little-known Maurice Harris. They will almost certainly be adding multiple wide receivers in this draft.
  • DL: New England allowed Trey Flowers and Malcolm Brown to seek greener pastures elsewhere. There is no hint of Danny Shelton returning. They re-signed John Simon who came on and played very well last year and traded for Michael Bennett to replace some of what Flowers can do. They could use some solid depth along the defensive line whether it be at defensive tackle or end.

New England Patriots NFL Draft Targets:

1st Round, 32nd Overall Pick: Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State

I can’t believe I am actually trying to predict the Patriots’ upcoming draft selections because I might as well just go kick rocks. They are easily the most difficult team to get a read on heading into the draft. Couple that with the fact that they are guaranteed to move at least one of their 12 picks and this is a daunting task. Here is my best guess and, like last year when they surprised with an RB in round 1, I’m taking a WR at 32. Kelvin Harmon is a great X WR prospect that could be lethal with an accurate passer. That Brady guy fits the bill and would add another dimension to the New England offense.

Also Possibilities: Jerry Tillery, AJ Brown, Irv Smith Jr. and Dexter Lawrence

2nd Round, 56th Overall Pick: Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M

Here is the first guy who will try to fill the shoes of the departed Rob Gronkowski. Sternberger is a very good receiving tight end that should be able to come in and make an immediate impact in the passing game. His blocking leaves a little to be desired but that will be addressed a little later. For now, the Pats get a great receiving tight end to replace some of the production that Gronk left behind.

Also Possibilities: Dexter Lawrence, Deebo Samuel, Parris Campbell, and Taylor Rapp

2nd Round 64th Overall Pick: Zach Allen, EDGE, Boston College

Zach Allen is right in New England’s backyard at Boston College. He could easily plug along the defensive line and turn into a good young player. The Patriots need pass rush help and Allen accumulated 16.5 sacks along with 40.5 tacklers for loss in his 4 years at Boston College.

Also Possibilities: Jonathan Abram, Tytus Howard, Andy Isabella

3rd Round 73rd Overall Pick: JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford

If you haven’t noticed by now, I am not confident in the receiving options in New England. Gronk was a red zone nightmare and scored touchdowns at an alarming rate. Enter Arcega-Whiteside who is pretty much a jump ball specialist. A guy like this would flourish with Tom Brady throwing him red zone jump balls.

3rd Round 97th Overall Pick: Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State

This is part of the two-player plan to replace Gronk. Warring is a capable receiver but he is a stout blocker and that is where the Patriots will miss Gronk the most. With Warring as a duel threat and Sternberger on the field for obvious passing downs, the Patriots can mix and match to put both player in a position to succeed on the field.

3rd Round 101st Overall Pick: Trysten Hill, IDL, UCF

With the departure of Malcolm Brown and the likely departure of Danny Shelton, the Patriots lack depth along the defensive line. Hill adds some much needed big-bodied depth along a defensive line that is in constant rotation.

4th Round 134th Overall Pick: Ross Pierschbacher, IOL, Alabama

The Patriots understand that depth in the trenches is critical. They are good for at least one or two picks along the offensive and defensive line in every draft. They also have Joe Thuney coming up on free agency and Pierschbacher can be the ready replacement once that time comes.

6th Round 205th Overall Pick: Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson

Let’s see here, successful slot receiver who is willing to do the dirty work. Team captain and well liked by teammates. High football IQ who is willing to learn and knows what it takes to win. Yep hunter Renfrow is destined to be a New England Patriot.

7th Round 239th Overall Pick: Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State

Another late round flyer for the Patriots, there is actually a lot to like when it comes to Rypien. He has a big arm and is a stable pocket passer. Brady won’t be around forever and, while he may not end up being the heir apparent, at least Rypien provides an insurance policy.

7th Round 243rd Overall Pick: Tre Lamar, LB, Clemson

The Patriots love targeting team first guys with special teams experience in the later rounds and that is exactly what Lamar brings to the table.

7th Round 246th Overall Pick: Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor

One last throw at the dartboard at receiver, Hurd is an intriguing prospect. Starting as an RB at Tennessee, he transferred to Baylor to become a WR. He was actually very productive and has very good size and speed.

7th Round 252nd Overall Pick: Casey Tucker, OT, Arizona State

Again, depth is key in the later rounds. Tucker would be used primarily as a depth option and a swing tackle in big packages.

2019 NFL Draft Grade

2019 NFL Draft grades will be added to NFL Draft Profiles following the 2019 NFL Draft. Make sure to bookmark this page and/or follow us on twitter to ensure you see the grade as soon as it comes out.

A.J. Brown: The Real Star WR from Ole Miss

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

A.J. Brown (6’1”, 225), Wide Receiver, Ole Miss

 

19 Aggregate Score (3.5 Star Prospect)

As D.K. Metcalf has been taking the spotlight due to his combine performance and intriguing traits, fellow Ole Miss receiver A.J. Brown has been hanging around in the shadows.  Even though we all should be excited for Metcalf, Brown has the much more impressive resume, is more reliable and more versatile then Metcalf.  Brown is a very exciting prospect that is starting to become a value in rookie drafts.

Brown was a 4-star recruit coming out of Starkville, Mississippi.  Brown was an Under Armour All-American selection for both football and baseball. He was also selected to the all-state team his senior year.  After receiving some big time offers from teams such as Alabama and Auburn, Brown decided to commit to Ole Miss.

College Production

Brown was extremely productive while at Ole Miss.  As a freshman, Brown played in all 12 games and had 29 catches for 412 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Brown then saw a huge increase in his role his sophomore year by catching 75 ball for 1,252 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Then during his junior year, Brown still found a way to improve and increase his role.  Brown had 85 catches for 1,320 yards and 6 touchdowns.  In both his sophomore and junior seasons, Brown was an All-SEC first team selection, an All-American third team selection (AP) and Biletnikoff Award semifinalist.

This is obviously great production for Brown, especially in an offense that had Metcalf, Damarkus Lodge and Dawson Knox all competing for targets.  Brown definitely benefited from Metcalf and Lodge spreading the field on the outside, but I honestly believe that he would have been able to produce in any offense in college.

Speed/Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 3.6 (Personal Score: 4)

Brown does have some great speed but won’t be a burner in the NFL.  He is really fast getting off the line of scrimmage and is quick in the open field.  Brown does a great job of displaying his speed and acceleration after the catch.  Brown accelerates to space and does a good job of making guys miss, which allows him to pick up quite a bit of yards after the catch.  When you combine his speed with his size, Brown can be extremely successful out of the slot and even contribute on the outside.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 4.3 (Personal Score: 4)

It seems like Brown is always open.  He is very crisp and sharp with his routes, which allows him to gain an extra step on defenders.  Brown excels in the short and intermediate area of the field, mainly running curls, digs and slants.  Brown showed that he can create separation on the outside.  His versatility should help him see the field and experience success right away.  My only complaint about Brown’s route running is that I wish he would have displayed a larger route tree with some deeper routes.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 2)

I am by far the lowest of The Fantasy Fanalysts on Brown’s blocking.  I just don’t see it.  He has the size and does show some decent blocks, but from what I saw, he was extremely inconsistent.  I may have to go back and watch some more and see what the rest of the crew is seeing.  Either way, he has a base there that should allow him to develop and improve as a blocker.

Handwork/Positioning: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

Brown displays some solid handwork in his routes.  He uses his hands to help create separation, which is extremely effective when combined with his speed. Brown does a great job of using his hands to catch the ball and not letting it come in on his body.  He is also great at finding the open space and positioning himself away from defenders.  Brown did show instances of struggling with contested catches but that’s not a huge part of his game.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

Brown displays a ton of athleticism after the catch.  He is very elusive and is constantly extending plays by making defenders miss.  Brown has great body control and rarely goes down on first contact.  He can stop on a dime and accelerate extremely quickly.  Brown’s ability after the catch will help him experience success in the NFL.

Conclusion: Mid – Late 1st round pick

Brown projects to be primarily a slot receiver in the NFL.  If given this role, he can end up being a QB’s best friend.  Brown has all the tools to be a consistent top 24 WR for fantasy purposes.  As it stands, I’d feel extremely comfortable taking Brown in the middle of the 1st round of rookie drafts.  If he ends up being drafted to a great landing spot in the 1st or early 2nd round of the NFL Draft, I could definitely understand taking him towards the 1.03/1.04.  Get excited people, Brown is going to be a stud in the NFL!

Fantasy Football Impact of the Offensive Line: Arizona Cardinals

Image result for football offensive line image

The offensive line is often overlooked as a key to fantasy success. Those five gentleman (occasionally six when you count a blocking Tight End) provide holes for Running Backs to run through and protection for a Quarterback to find the best target and get off a clean throw.

A good offensive line provides fantasy success:

  • The Steelers O-Line makes James Conner, Antonio Brown, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Ben Roethlisberger top 10 performers in their respective positions.
  • The Browns O-Line helps make Nick Chubb one of the best redraft waiver wire pick ups of 2018.
  • The Patriots O-Line protected Tom Brady all the way to the Super Bowl.

A bad offensive line is a direct path to the pits of misery:

  • The Cardinals O-Line makes David Johnson look mediocre and turns Josh Rosen into a rookie flop.
  • The Vikings O-Line took a fantasy winner in Kirk Cousins and turned him into a disappointment.
  • The Raiders O-Line makes their entire team almost worthless for fantasy.

The Arizona Cardinals have pieces that could be fantasy relevant in 2019. The concern is whether or not those fantasy pieces will have a chance to shine. What steps have they made to improve the chances of their highly paid offensive pieces? Will they have an opportunity to improve their O-Line ranking through the coming draft? April 25 is just a little over a month away!

Part 1 in the offensive line series will begin with the Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona Cardinals

Their Offensive Line was awful even when they were healthy. Throw in multiple injuries and you are left with the first overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Josh Rosen was sacked 45 times in 2018. For a point of reference, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger were sacked 45 times COMBINED. How can you expect to succeed when your Quarterback doesn’t have time to throw? The sad David Johnson drafters among us (my hand is also raised) do not need to be reminded about the 1.2 less yards per touch compared to his successful 2016 campaign.

2018 End-of-Season Starters and Their 2019 Status

Position 2018 Starter 2019 Starter Notes
Left Tackle DJ Humphries DJ Humphries Ended 2018 on the IR
Left Guard Mike Iupati JR Sweezy Iupati signed with the Seahawks. Sweezy signed as Free Agent after spending 2018 with the Seahawks.
Center Mason Cole Mason Cole Rookie in 2018 returns in 2019. Was healthiest member of the O-Line.
Right Guard Justin Pugh Justin Pugh Spent a large amount of 2018 on the IR. Position was filled with backups.
Right Tackle Andre Smith Marcus Gilbert Smith was released before the end of the 2018 season. Gilbert was a Free Agent signing.
Tight End Ricky Seals-Jones Ricky Seals-Jones Signed Charles Clay from Free Agency.

Current O-Line Ranking

Name Position NFL Ranking (in Position)
DJ Humphries Left Tackle 25
JR Sweezy Left Guard 28
Mason Cole Center 31
Justin Pugh Right Guard 30
Marcus Gilbert Right Tackle 17
Ricky Seals-Jones Tight End 17
Overall Team O-Line 31
*Rankings based on ProFootballFocus.com scoring

Free Agency: A Huge Step in the Right Direction

Justin Pugh is a former first round pick who was signed to a long term deal before the 2018 season. While adding strength at Right Guard, Pugh suffered a knee injury and was put on Injured Reserve in week 10. He returns at full strength for the 2019 season. I do not anticipate his NFL ranking at the Right Guard position to remain that low.

If a healthy Justin Pugh is a reason to feel positive, then the addition of Marcus Gilbert is reason to celebrate! Marcus Gilbert’s arrival is a bonus having spent time as the starter for the stellar Steelers O-Line. These are two impressive gains that show that the Cardinals noticed their shortcomings and are working to improve.

JR Sweezy is a statistical downgrade from Mike Iupati. However, Sweezy is a healthier player having spent much less time on the injury report. The downgrade in run and pass protection will be made up for with stability in the position as opposed to filling it with second and third string replacements.

The addition of Charles Clay is welcome for Josh Rosen. One of Ricky Seals-Jones shortcomings is pass blocking. Charles Clay is known for that skill. One note of caution: If the Cardinals don’t work on the below average skills of their Tight Ends, the player lining up could telegraph the play calling. Since Charles Clay is better at pass blocking, it would likely mean a passing play. Ricky Seals-Jones at the line would indicate a running play.

NFL Draft Thoughts

DJ Humphries is mediocre when healthy (25th ranked Left Tackle) and has been injury prone. It would be in the Cardinal’s best interest to find a replacement. Meanwhile, it is my opinion that all the “Kyler Murray at #1 overall” talk is a bunch of hype to get a buyer for that pick. Perhaps move down a small amount and grab Jonah Williams, Left Tackle from Alabama. He is considered by some to be the #1 offensive lineman on the board and is a natural fit to the position. Those who do not rank him (thedraftnetwork.com) as the #1 offensive lineman have him at #2, instead.

Even if the Kyler Murray rumors come true, the Arizona Cardinals have nine other picks in the 2019 draft as of 3-17-2019 and would certainly get an additional pick or more for Josh Rosen. Ten total picks is a lot of opportunity to improve their depth and find some potential improvements for their offensive line.

The bottom line is that Arizona needs to make a move to improve their offensive line early in the draft. They could trade down from the #1 overall and feel secure in their draft of Jonah Williams later in the first round. Or they could use the first pick in the second round to choose another other rookie that could make an immediate impact such as:

First Round

  • Jawaan Taylor (Florida) – Currently unlikely to fall to the second round
  • Dalton Risner (Kansas State) – Currently projected as a late first rounder, could fall

Second Round

  • Michael Deiter (Wisconsin)
  • Yodny Cajuste (West Virginia)

2019 Thoughts

A healthy 2019 for Justin Pugh and the addition of Marcus Gilbert are enough to make David Johnson a fantasy value at his current ADP (2.04, 10th RB off the board according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com). Will we see a return to his 2016 form? That is highly unlikely given the current overall offensive line ranking (31st in the NFL) and the forecast for wins and losses in Arizona; Vegas odds has them at 4-5 wins. They will be playing from behind quite often which will limit his upside. However, the improved Offensive Line will provide him some holes for some additional yards and more than the dismal 10 total touchdowns from 2018.

Those same O-line additions will keep Josh Rosen (or Kyler Murray) off of his back. Not only will it improve their Quarterback longevity, it will also increase their fantasy stats. Is Rosen worth using a fantasy draft pick? No, he will consistently be on waivers in the most common league formats. He will have some usable weeks against their weaker opponents.

Conclusion

Honestly, could it get any worse than it was in 2018? We know David Johnson’s capabilities. He didn’t have an underwhelming 2018 due to a lack of  talent. We know that Josh Rosen has a hall of fame wide receiver target in Larry Fitzgerald and a talented Christian Kirk in the slot. All they need are those O-Line pieces to help them succeed.

The Cardinals management has made strides in the right direction with some free agent signings. If they can stay healthy, there will be improvements. The outlook could be even brighter after the draft.

The New York Giants 2019 NFL Draft Profile

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New York Giants 2018 Recap

The Giants had another disappointing season in 2018, finishing 5-11 and missing the playoffs for the second straight year. Their second straight season at the bottom of the NFC East came after drafting running back Saquon Barkley 2nd overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. The Giants have also been adamant on holding onto their 2x Super Bowl winning quarterback Eli Manning, who has just turned 38 years old.

Dave Gettleman has been active this offseason. He traded Odell Beckham Jr., to the disdain of most Giants fans, to the Cleveland Browns for a package that featured the 17th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He also secured Kevin Zeitler, by shipping Oliver Vernon out of New York. The Giants also added Golden Tate in free agency.

Gettleman has a clear focus for this roster: he wants to run the ball 25-30 times a game and win along both the offensive and defensive trenches. This mindset will guide the targets I focus on in this article.

New York Giants 2019 NFL Draft Needs:

Gettleman’s restructure has left a lot of holes for the Giants to try to fill during the NFL Draft. In particular they need to address:

  • Right Tackle: with Zeitler playing right guard the Giants offensive line is starting to come together. Solder (left tackle) improved as 2018 went on, Will Hernandez (left guard) had a great rookie campaign, and Halapio (center) is a solid band aid at center. The Giants, however, still have a large gap at right tackle-one that needs to be addressed early in the 2019 NFL Draft.
  • EDGE: with Oliver Vernon gone, the Giants lack a playmaker at on of the foundational positions in the NFL. There are a lot of explosive EDGE options at the top of this year’s NFL Draft-but there is not a ton of depth, the Giants will have to be aggressive early.
  • S/CB: even with Peppers coming over in the OBJ trade, the Giants need depth in their secondary. In addition to safety depth, they need to find a corner who can play opposite of Jenkins. This is a draft that lacks talent at the top of the secondary, but there is plenty of depth to choose from as we get into the mid rounds.

New York Giants NFL Draft Targets:

1st Round, 6th Overall Pick: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

I do not believe the Giants will even consider quarterback with this pick. Everything Gettleman has said since Indianapolis and the OBJ trade suggests he wants to focus on winning in the trenches. With Taylor, the Giants secure the best pure offensive tackle in this class and suddenly have a very solid offensive line that can hold up to Gettleman’s vision.

Other players the Giants could take with this pick: Brian Burns, Cody Ford, Quinnen Williams

1st Round, 17th Overall Pick: TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa

This is an unconventional pick, but it makes a lot of sense. Hockenson has the ability to immediately support the run game as an aggressive blocker. That’s enough to get the Giants’ front office hooked, add in his big time play making skills and you have someone who can help Eli Manning move the ball in the short/mid field.

Other players the Giants could take with this pick: Ed Oliver, Drew Lock, Devin Bush

2nd Round, 37th Overall: Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida

Polite was consider among the top EDGE prospects prior to the NFL Combine. During the combine Polite interviewed poorly, which validated the poor character rumors that clouded his time at Florida. Polite also did not test well in Indianapolis. I doubt Gettleman would care much about Polite’s character issues, though, and would run to the podium to take an explosive and athletic EDGE with this pick.

Other players the Giants could take with this pick: Amani Oruwariye, Deionte Thompson, Charles Omenihu

3rd Round, 95th Overall: Joejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt

I have had the Giants ignore defensive back so far with these picks. They will, however, need to find CB help. Williams gives them a corner who can grow into a starting role for them-he has limited athletic upside but does have good traits and technique.

3rd Round, 108th Overall: Marquise Blair, S, Utah

Blair gives the Giants more mid round secondary support, which will be critical if they do ignore that position early in the 2019 NFL Draft. Blair is physical and can live in the box and support the Giants run defense.

4th Round, 132nd Overall: Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State

If the Giants are truly going to run the ball 25-30 times, they need to provide Barkley with change of pace backs to bare some of the load. Gallman provides some relief already, but Weber gives them a well-rounded back who is also a very effective pass blocker.

4th Round, 142nd Overall: Isiah Buggs, DT, Alabama

Buggs gives the Giants more support on the defensive line. He played outside at Alabama but has limited speed and range which will force him to play inside in the NFL. Think of Buggs as their well-liquor version of Snacks Harrison.

4th Round, 143rd Overall: Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor

Hurd is a draft crush of mine. He’s dynamic, explosive, and was being considered a first-round talent when he was playing running back for the Tennessee Volunteers. Since transferring to play WR, Hurd has shown the ability to contribute to the slot and can work into a running back rotation still.

5th Round, 171st Overall: Tre Watson, LB, Maryland

Past White, Bush, and Wilson there is no certainty in the linebacker position in this draft class. Still, the Giants need to add depth and potential replacement for the money pit that is Ogletree. Watson gives them a development prospect who could contribute in his first year.

6th Round, 180th Overall: Oli Udoh, OT, Elon

Odoh isn’t a big name, but he is a big man (6’6”, 327). He’s a raw prospect that performed well during the Senior Bowl. The Giants could use Udoh as a critical depth piece for their offensive line.

7th Round, 232nd Overall: Jimmy Moreland, CB, James Madison

Mooreland was the 2018 Colonial Athletic Conference Defensive Player of the Year. He performed so well at the East-West Shrine Game that he got called up to also play in the Senior Bowl. Moreland needs experience with tougher competition, but he’s flashed enough to justify a late round pick.

7th Round, 245th Overall: Greg Dortch, WR, Wake Forest

Dortch truthers might be livid I’m projecting him so low, but Dortch is undersized and underexperienced. Still, he has great speed and could contribute in the slot role for the Giants. More likely, however, is that the Giants could draft him to contribute to special teams early in his career.

2019 NFL Draft Grade

2019 NFL Draft grades will be added to NFL Draft Profiles following the 2019 NFL Draft. Make sure to bookmark this page and/or follow us on twitter to ensure you see the grade as soon as it comes out.

Easton Stick: 3 Star Upside

Easton Stick (6’1, 224), Quarterback North Dakota State University

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

15.6 Aggregate Score (3 Star Prospect)

Stick may be from a small school, but the Bison are no joke. Stick took over for Carson Wentz at North Dakota State University-a FCS program. Stick is the winningest player in NDSU history; totaling 41 wins of his tenure there. He consistently improved throughout his time as a starter; finishing his senior season with 2,752 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 677 rushing yards, and 17 rushing touchdowns.

Arm Strength: Aggregate Score 3.3 (Personal Score 4)

Stick keeps the ball primarily in the short and mid field. He has a great zip on his ball and hits his targets with strong throws. He also isn’t afraid to air the ball out; he can get the ball 50/60 yards downfield. On multiple occasions, Stick threw the ball 2-3 times in a row over 50 yards. I’m a bit higher on his arm strength than my fellow writers; it’s possible his big throws get me a little too hyped up.

Accuracy: Aggregate Score 2.3 (Personal Score 2)

This is not Stick’s strong suit. He can hit wide outs consistently on slants and drags over the first level of the field. Although I like his arm strength his ability to be dangerous downfield is limited because he loses a lot of accuracy past 40 yards downfield. He consistently overthrows his targets. Stick does not have the ability to make throws on the run; which is frustrating from a running quarterback. Even more frustrating is that in-between overthrows and wild deep balls are beautiful dimes with perfect touch. Stick has the upside, but inconsistent with accuracy is a big red flag.

Decision Making: Aggregate Score 2.6 (Personal Score 2)

Stick protects the ball well, leading to a 4:1 touchdown to interception ratio his senior year. He does well to move the pocket and set himself before throwing (which helps offset his inaccuracy) and makes quick decisions to tuck the ball and run. Stick, though, throws a lot of passes into traffic and leaves his receivers out to dry consistently. If Stick was playing higher level competition, I’m sure his ratio would be much lower.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score 4.3 (Personal Score 5)

Here’s where I get really excited; Stick is an athletic freak for his position. He’s quick enough to beat linebackers to the edge and turn upfield and bolt. He’s also not afraid to run between the A gap and swipe defenders off of him. There’s multiple occasions on tape when Stick drags defensive backs forward with him while he extends the play. It’s not unreasonable to get Stick confused for his running back on tape-he is dynamic and breaks off big plays. He extends plays and makes broken players into 40-yard gains with his feet. Stick’s athletic upside makes him unique and a versatile talent in this draft class.

Mechanics: Aggregate Score 3 (Personal Score 3)

Here’s one category where the three rankers hit consensus. He’s light on his feet, has solid mechanics but nothing too impressive. Stick moves a pocket well and has a high level of awareness for when to set his feet and throw the ball, and when to take off running. He scares you, though, when he puts his head down to take on linebackers.

Conclusion: Late Round Flyer

I get seriously hype when watching Stick’s tape. It’s exciting, there’s a ton of dynamic plays, and you can tell he’s a serious gamer. Still, he’s very raw and even in a great landing spot he looks to be a taxi squad asset for at least a few years. In superflex formats he’s more appealing; and could even sneak into the back end of the third round. In most formats, though, he will go in the fourth round-or not at all.

Daniel Jones: A Very Divisive QB Prospect

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

Daniel Jones (6’5”, 221 lbs) Quarterback, Duke University

15.6 Aggregate Score (3 Star Prospect)

Daniel Jones has become the most polarizing quarterback prospect in this class. Does he have what it takes to play quarterback in the NFL? Short answer? Who knows. He has a lot of good and bad on film and his numbers say about the same.  The good, the bad and the ugly is what you get with Jones and we will try to get a cross section of that here.

College Production

His passing numbers are not very exciting, but looking at his numbers across the board gives a little hope. After redshirting his freshman year, Jones put up intriguing numbers through the air in his first year on the field with almost 3000 yards and 16 touchdowns to 9 interceptions. Add 7 touchdowns on the ground and you can make a case for Jones looking like a guy who could play professionally. He most certainly had a sophomore slump with yardage and efficiency dropping.  He didn’t improve much over his original freshman numbers in his final season. Yardage very similar overall with a slight efficiency increase. He did get his TD/Int ratio well above 2 which is promising. His rushing touchdowns went down as his passing touchdowns went up though so this wasn’t as much the result of a more efficient offense, but a more efficient passer certainly.

Arm Strength: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

He can makes NFL level throws and his arm is passable, but nothing more. He does not often make wow throws on tape and won’t often trust his arm when deciding whether to push the ball downfield or fit the ball in tight window.

Accuracy: Aggregate Score: 2.6 (Personal Score: 3)

Again, not great, but he hits his target on the throws you need to see. He is often conservative so you don’t get too see the accuracy on the more difficult throws.

Decision Making: Aggregate Score: 2 (Personal Score: 2)

Normally a guy who makes the safe decision and keeps things relatively calm on a play to play basis would be counted as a good decision maker. We do not believe this is the case. There is more to the game than taking the safe yardage and keeping drives alive.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

A bit of a surprise here, but Jones is a good athlete. He ran a 4.8 flat at the combine and 7.00 three cone.  Both of those numbers are strong for a quarterback of his size. Solid numbers in the vert and the broad jump show enough explosiveness to go with those speed and agility numbers as well.

Mechanics: Aggregate Score: 3.6 (Personal Score: 3)

Meh-canics. I don’t love the throwing motion here. While he can get rid of the ball quickly, which is very important at the next level, he isn’t very tight with his wind up. The ball comes away from his body and well outside of his shoulder as he is winding up exposing it to defenders in a big way.

Conclusion:  Not Drafting in 1 QB, Late 2nd/Early 3rd Round Target in SuperFlex

I see a whole lot of Alex Smith when I watch Daniel Jones play football. Given a good situation and some high level weapons, Jones has a shot to game manage his way to some wins the NFL. He does not look to have a very high ceiling without many of the physical tools to create big time plays and opportunities. However, for fantasy, Alex Smith has been a serviceable asset, especially in Superflex. The rushing upside is there with the athleticism for Jones and I could see that playing into his fantasy value. If I end up with Jones on a fantasy roster, it is because he was drafted high and he will get a chance to start early in his career. If that does happen and he flashes in one of those first few games, I am shipping him for any semblance of a profit. Jones won’t win you any fantasy championships.

Justice Hill: Building Hype After An Electric Combine

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

Justice Hill (5’10”, 190), Running Back, Oklahoma State

15.3 Aggregate Score (3 Star Prospect)

Justice Hill is a very intriguing prospect.  He has been hanging around in that second tier of running backs most of the pre-draft process.  That all changed when he had one of the best performances for a running back at the 2019 NFL Combine.  Hill ranked first amongst running backs in the 40-yard dash (4.40), broad jump (10’10”) and vertical jump (40’).  Since then, Hill has been gaining hype and rising up rookie draft boards.

Out of Booker T. Washington High School in Oklahoma, Hill was a 3-star recruit, based on 247Sports Composite.  His senior year, Hill was an all-state selection and the 6A-II offensive player of the year.  After receiving offers from Houston, Kansas and Louisville, Hill decided to commit to Oklahoma State.

College Production

Hill was very productive while at Oklahoma State.  As a true freshman, Hill had 206 carries for 1,142 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns. His performance earned him Second-Team All-Big 12 honors and broke the OSU freshman rushing record.  As a sophomore, Hill had his best season at OSU with 268 carries for 1,467 yards and 15 touchdowns.  Hill also added 31 receptions for 190 yards and 1 touchdown.  Hill earned First-Team All-Big 12 honors and was a Doak Walker Award Semifinalist.  In 10 games as a junior, Hill had 158 carries for 930 yards and 9 touchdowns.

This is great production for Hill, even if the majority of it came against Big 12 defenses.  The only thing I would have liked to see more from Hill is a bit more production in the receiving game.  He only had 49 receptions for 304 yards and 1 touchdown in three seasons.  It is better than nothing, but for a guy who projects best to be a third down back, I would have liked to have seen more out of him.

Speed & Agility: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

Hill is extremely quick.  He does a great job of accelerating to open space. Along with being fast, Hill does a great job of changing direction.  When he cuts or has to change direction, he is very fluid and accelerates forward very well. I wish Hill would have displayed more of his agility and elusiveness in open space to avoid/break some more teams.

Receiving: Aggregate Score: 2.6 (Personal Score: 3)

As I mentioned above, this is an area I expected to see more out of Hill.  In terms of running routes, Hill mainly ran swings and flats.  The promising thing is that Hill looks comfortable catching the ball and is great after the catch.  He uses his acceleration and vision to get to space and make plays.

Vision: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 4)

This an area of Hill’s game that I seemed to like more than my fellow raters.  When looking at Hill’s vision, I think he does a great job of identifying when he needs to change direction or reverse the field.  He turned countless broken plays into positive plays just by changing direction and accelerating to space.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

I think the best way to describe Hill as a blocker is competent.  As a smaller back, he wasn’t asked to block a ton in college.  He was mainly used to chip defenders and then release to his route.  When he was asked to stay in to pass block, Hill showed willingness and aggression when going up against defenders.

Strength: Aggregate Score: 2.6 (Personal Score: 3)

I really enjoy watching Hill run because he is aggressive and attacks defenders.  He does a great job of fighting for extra yards by being physical.  The only problem is that he doesn’t have the size to consistently overpower defenders and break tackles.  I really wish I could give him 25 extra pounds and watch him run over people.

Conclusion: Mid-Late 2nd round pick

Because of his combine performance, Hill has started catching more people’s attention.  So long are the days of thinking you could grab him late in the third round of rookie drafts. Hill has the skill set to be a reliable third down back that will definitely get his looks on early downs as well.  Again, my only issue with Hill is that since he projects to be primarily a receiving back, I would have liked to see more production in college.  Still, with big play upside, I would feel really comfortable with taking Hill in the middle of the 2nd round of rookie drafts.

Mock Draft Monday: The Post-FA Mock Draft

The first mock draft with the first wave of free agency in the books is here! The guys have tinkered a bit with who they feel should go where. Who has fallen? Who has risen? Who…hasn’t moved even a little?? Let’s jump into it, Josh Padgett is picking first with the Arizona Cardinals.

1. Arizona Cardinals: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State

Bosa is definitely the pick for Arizona if they don’t trade down. He is the most complete edge rusher in this class with the ability to morph to to fit different schemes. I am also partial to guys who want their hand in the dirt to start the rep and Bosa is that guy. He will contribute right away and with a ceiling that rivals his brother Joey, this is still a slam dunk pick at 1.

Josh Padgett

2. San Francisco 49ers: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

As someone who is not totally sold on Nick Bosa (I think he’s great but so is Williams), I believe Williams might actually be the best player in the draft. He is as dominant as they come along the defensive line and he ruined offensive gameplans throughout his career at Alabama. The 49ers bring him in to align with Dee Ford and a defensive line that continues to collect talent.

Eric Adams

3. New York Jets: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

The Jets made two big additions to their offense with Kelechi Osemele and Le’veon Bell through free agency. They still need helping protecting their franchise quarterback and their revamped offense, and Williams is exactly the piece to fill that role.

Matt Hicks

4. Oakland Raiders: Cody Ford, iOL, Oklahoma

The Raiders have been busy this offseason acquiring a lot of different talent from free agency. One position they still need help with is the offensive line which is what they dealt with here. Cody Ford is viewed by many as top 3 at the position and will be part of the reason Derek Carr stays on his feet more often in the future.

Christopher Nelson

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky

As of now, the Buccaneers haven’t been huge players in free agency.  The Buccaneers have quite a bit of needs to still fill, with pass rusher being near the top of the list. With two O-lineman going off the board before them, they find themselves in prime position to grab Josh Allen, who had 17 sacks in 2018.

Mike Colaianne

6. New York Giants: Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State

Burns has a super high ceiling as a bendy edge rusher who can use his length and quickness to create all kinds of problems for tackles. The Giants as an organization need playmakers. Burns will make a lot of plays in his NFL career.

Josh Padgett

7. Jacksonville Jaguars: DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

Rant incoming: I am sick and tired of having to deal with people within the fantasy community who keep trying to sell me on a Jacksonville wide receiver. THEY ARE ALL MEDIOCRE. This leads me to this pick and DK Metcalf will end all discussion. He’s the WR1 in Jacksonville and it is not even remotely close.

Eric Adams

8. Detroit Lions: TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Detroit filled two major needs in free agency. With their EDGE and corners voids filled, they can give Stafford a critical weapon needed to take their offense over the hump. Hockenson can support the running game for Kerryon Johnson and provide Stafford with a reliable passing option.

Matt Hicks

9. Buffalo Bills: Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State

Having “risen” up many draft boards due to a strong path to the draft Risner has asserted himself as a one of the better tackles. Buffalo goes for offensive line help here as opposed to the chalk wide receiver pick due to the fact that the position will dry up a lot quicker than wide receiver will. Also with signings like John Brown, Cole Beasley and the emergence of Robert Foster last year, Buffalo can afford to wait.

Christopher Nelson

10. Denver Broncos: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

I honestly have no idea what Denver is going to do with this pick.  I’m sure new head coach Vic Fangio would love to grab DB to help bolster his defense, but there is a chance John Elway will out way Fangio and try to find the long term answer at QB. Haskins was extremely productive in his one year of starting at Ohio State and could really benefit from sitting behind Joe Flacco for a year or so.  

Mike Colaianne

11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin White, LB, LSU

Devin White was the Butkus Award winner last year as college football’s best overall linebacker. He brings great tackling and hard nose brand of football to Cincinnati defense that has been known for just that. With Vontaze Burfict and his antics finally out the door, White provides immediate impact in the front seven.

Josh Padgett

12. Green Bay Packers: Ed Oliver, DL, Houston

Unless they go offensive lineman, I think Green Bay should take the best player available here on defense. Ed Oliver’s stock has taken a bit of a hit for whatever reason but he is a dominant player. I think Green Bay will gladly plug him into their defense.

Eric Adams

13. Miami Dolphins: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

The Dolphins are heading toward a long term rebuild; one that does not suggest they would leap at a quarterback in this year’s draft. Instead they invest in a critical piece for a rebuilding team: a franchise tackles.

Matt Hicks

14. Atlanta Falcons: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

Montez Sweat is an athletic freak similar to how DK Metcalf is to the receiver group and  cannot be ignored. Also his 84 inch wingspan will be sure to aid him in the tackling department any time someone is even remotely close to him. The Falcons also considered Clelin Ferrell here, but ultimately went with Sweat.

Christopher Nelson

15. Salt Lake Stallions (Washington Redskins): Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

The Salt Lake Stallions find themselves in prime position to take one of the most electrifying play makers in the draft with their first pick ever! In all seriousness, Washington should be ecstatic if Murray falls to them at 15. I get all of the size concerns, but Murray gives Washington their best shot at solving their QB issues.  

Mike Colaianne

16. Carolina Panthers: Devin Bush Jr, LB, Michigan

Devin Bush has been steadily climbing boards as he tested out phenomenally at both the combine and his pro day. He is super smooth in his movements and is great in coverage. His speed and agility make him feel almost like a box safety, but he is a much stockier player than say a Mark Barron. Bush would help fill the void left by Thomas Davis.

Josh Padgett

17. New York Giants: AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss

Maybe the Giants shouldn’t take a WR here. Maybe they should avoid the position at this particular pick so that the player is not compared to another wide receiver who did pretty well in New York. Throw all that out the window. The Giants could go a multitude of ways with this pick but AJ Brown would be a wise pick. Tate just signed for 4 years so he can learn from him. Sterling Shepard is on the last year of his deal. A Brown/Tate duo would be a great duo for a young QB to grow with.

Eric Adams

18. Minnesota Vikings: Chris Lindstrom, iOL, Boston College

The Vikings desperately need help along the offensive line; they will take the best linemen available on the board. In this mock draft there was an early run on tackles, so they’ll take the most talented interior linemen in Lindstrom.

Matt Hicks

19. Tennessee Titans: Jeffery Simmons, iDL, Mississippi State

With the Titans only having two tackles on the books for more than a year, this pick makes sense. Simmons is someone who can come in and instantly contribute aka wreak havoc on the offensive line much like he did in college on the nations #1 defense. He’s got somewhat of a past that has some teams scared, but I think he’s put that behind him and is ready to make the most of this opportunity.

Christopher Nelson

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

It is no secret that Pittsburgh needs to improve their defense. They have missed on some of their draft picks used on defensive backs the last few years, but that can’t stop them from trying again with Greedy Williams.  Williams has the height, speed and tools to contribute right away in the Pittsburgh defense and take them one step closer to being up to par.

Mike Colaianne

21. Seattle Seahawks: Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida

Polite is a talented player who has had some questions raised about his love of the game or at least his commitment to improving his game. Seattle is the type of organization that can solve those issues. The talent level is very high and he already has an array of moves and counters. If Seattle can unlock the ceiling of Polite, this pick will look like a steal.

Josh Padgett

22. Baltimore Ravens: Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan

Contrary to what some Ravens fans want to believe, they don’t have an impact player in the front 7 right now. That is usually their calling card. They absolutely need a receiver but I think the opportunity to take Gary is too good to pass up. He gives them the proper replacement for a departing Terrell Suggs and should be the next great Ravens defensive stalwart.

Eric Adams

23. Houston Texans: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

The Texans have failed to invest in their offensive line through free agency, That leaves them with no option but to take a potential franchise tackle in the first round; even one with such varied opinions.

Matt Hicks

24. Oakland Raiders (via Chicago Bears): Anthony Nelson, EDGE, Iowa

Having grabbed a few offensive pieces already and having a bevy of drafts pick, I believe the raiders will go defense early. I like Anthony Nelson for them here and no, it’s not wholly because of his last name but he thrives off of something athleticism can’t get you when it starts to disappear, technique! Strapped with a ton of moves off the line, he’ll be part of a rebuilding pass rush fit for a Gruden to rule.

Christopher Nelson

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

Philadelphia had a ton of troubles in their defensive secondary last year, mostly due to injuries and lack of depth.  Byron Murphy has the IQ and athleticism to start right away. Plus, with his coverage skills and play making ability, he has potential to be become an absolute stud in the NFL.  

Mike Colaianne

26. Indianapolis Colts: N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State

N’Keal Harry is the best receiver in this strong class. The Colts still need a wideout despite acquiring Funchess on a prove it deal. Harry makes plays with the ball in his hands constantly and is an absolute handful on contested catches. He would be the perfect complement to TY Hilton and allow Funchess, Hilton and himself to move all over formations and cause all kinds of problems for defenses.

Josh Padgett

27. Oakland Raiders: Christian Wilkins, DL, Clemson

The Raiders just need to go best player available and they will do just fine for themselves in this draft. Wilkins will jon Cody Ford and Anthony Nelson to create a formidable first round coup for the Raiders.

Eric Adams

28. Los Angeles Chargers: Charles Omenihu, iDL, Texas

The Chargers lack a lot of blaring needs, but interior defensive line makes the most sense for them in the first round. They got sniped by Oakland taking WIlkins right before them, but Omenihu gives the Chargers a versatile and dynamic player to compliment their dangerous end pieces.

Matt Hicks

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia

If you watched Kansas City at all, you’ll know exactly why this pick was made. The Chiefs secondary has consistently gotten scorched and for them, that needs to stop. It feels like highway robbery getting him this late, but with recent issues being raised in his interviews during the combine, this may not be as crazy of a fall as one would think.

Christopher Nelson

30. Green Bay Packers: Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

The Jimmy Graham experiment hasn’t worked in Green Bay.  It is time for them to stop trying to find old guys that are either not talented or out of their prime to fill the tight end position.  Green Bay needs to go out and get Noah Fant. Fant is extremely athletic and a natural pass catcher that can slot right into the Green Bay offense.  Combine Fant with Rodgers, Adams and possibly another WR in the draft, and all of a sudden Green Bay becomes contenders to win the NFC North.

Mike Colaianne

31. Los Angeles Rams: Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss

Greg Little is a monster of a man. He is a little bit rough around the edges, but with Andrew Whitworth sticking around, Little won’t be pressed into service immediately. He should be able to step into the role of starting left tackle for this great offense before long though.

Josh Padgett

32. New England Patriots: Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State

A move that will certainly be a shock to some, this would be a perfect landing spot for Harmon. He’s a WR who screams route running and is just what the Patriots look for. A hard worker who will feel an immediate need and another weapon for the Patriots offensive attack. The Patriots usually never take wide receivers high in the draft but until last year they followed the same script with running backs and Sony Michel happened. They will break from the usual script and draft a wide receiver in the first 2 rounds.

Eric Adams

33. Arizona Cardinals: Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama

34. Indianapolis Colts: Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State

35. Oakland Raiders: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

36. San Francisco 49ers: Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

37. New York Giants: Dexter Lawrence, DL, Clemson

38. Jacksonville Jaguars: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

39. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Justin Layne, CB, Michigan

40. Buffalo Bills: Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina

41. Denver Broncos: Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame

42. Cincinnati Bengals: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

43. Detroit Lions: Dru Samia, iOL, Oklahoma

44. Green Bay Packers: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

45. Atlanta Falcons: Garrett Bradbury, iOL, NC State

46. Salt Lake Stallions: JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford

47. Carolina Panthers: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

48. Miami Dolphins: Will Grier, QB, West Virginia

49. Cleveland Browns: Erik McCoy, iOL, Texas A&M

50. Minnesota Vikings: Michael Deiter, OT, Wisconsin

51. Tennessee Titans: Christian Miller, EDGE, Alabama

52. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple

53. Philadelphia Eagles: David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

54. Houston Texans: Amani Hooker, CB, Iowa

55. Houston Texans: Nasir Adderly, S, Delaware

56. New England Patriots: Zach Allen, DE, Boston College

57. Philadelphia Eagles: Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama

58. Dallas Cowboys: Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M

59. Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Abram, S, Mississippi State

60. Los Angeles Chargers: Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia

61. Kansas City Chiefs: Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma

62. New Orleans Saints: Lamont Gillard, C, Georgia

63. Kansas City Chiefs: Dre’Mont Jones, iDL, Ohio State

64. New England Patriots: Jerry Tillery, iDL, Notre Dame

Drew Lock: The Argument for QB1

Drew Lock (6’4, 228), Quarterback, Missouri

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full database of 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer. All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.


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19.6 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

Lock is the top overall rated quarterback in our database at this point and he is my QB1. He was a 4-year starter at Missouri; throwing for over 3,000 career yards in his last 3 seasons. In those seasons, he has thrown 95 touchdowns to just 21 interceptions. An impressive feat in a conference known for it’s pro-ready defenders. There’s a lot to like about Lock; he’s well rounded, has a fiery confidence that perfectly walks the line of arrogance, and has proven production against the closest thing to NFL level defensive talent.

Arm Strength: Aggregate Score 4 (Personal Score 4)

Lock has good velocity on his throws. He weaves balls into tight windows in the short field. He also gets the ball downfield with ease. He consistently works the ball into the 3rd level of the field and his tape shows multiple drop-in-a-bucket passes to receivers as they burn downfield. Lock’s arm strength is 3rd best in the class to me; with just Tyree Jackson and Kyler Murray showing the ability to get the ball down the field further.

Accuracy: Aggregate Score 4 (Personal Score 4)

Lock is precise in the short and mid field passing game. He gets the ball into tight windows well and rarely puts his wideouts in a situation where they get hit by defenders. Instead, his receivers get hit in the chest and hands consistently. He reads the field well and beats double coverage by putting the ball in a position where only his receivers can get it. He leads receivers well, can pinpoint along the sideline, and consistently finishes off drives with well-placed touchdown passes.

Decision Making: Aggregate Score 4 (Personal Score 4)

Lock doesn’t throw the ball in dangerous spots. He reads the field very well and works through progression at a much higher level than I see with Haskins; often finding his 2nd or 3rd read on plays. He rarely takes sacks, despite facing constant pressure. Lock sets his feet consistently while throwing the ball, avoiding inaccurate passes on the run.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score 3.6 (Personal Score 3)

Lock’s athleticism doesn’t impress me; he’s certainly no Kyler Murray. Lock, however, also isn’t Haskins. His athleticism is solid; he can scramble but thinks to stay in the pocket first. He won’t burn defenders, but he has solid burst and can run north/south to avoid taking a hit. He showed the strength to stay up after taking a hit and finish the play forward but chooses to slide often. Lock may not thrill you with his athleticism, but it is good enough to allow him some creativity inside the pocket.

Mechanics: Aggregate Score 4 (Personal Score 4.3)

Lock has a good release, and solid throwing motion. He’s light when moving around the pocket, keeps his feet moving, and steps up and through the pocket when throwing deep. It leads to a pretty spiral on his passes and he sets his feet consistently. Lock, though, often throws off his back foot. More times than not, it comes from “phantom pressure”; Lock perceives a defender to be closing in on him while he actually has time to throw. He has some developing to do, but Lock is a moldable prospect.

Conclusion: No Rush to take the Top QB

Lock is my QB1, and clearly my fellow rankers agree with me. I expect, however, for Kyler Murray to go off the board before Lock in most fantasy football rookie drafts. I can live with hat, given Murray’s upside. What I can’t understand, however, is taking Haskins over Lock. Haskins is less accurate, has a tougher time reading the field, is less accurate, and less proven. Regardless of which one goes first, no QB should go earlier than the back end of the second round of fantasy football rookie drafts. I’m not leaping at any of them this year, but if Lock falls to me in the third round, I would not be able to resist.

Mock Draft Season: Post-Combine Rookie Mock 5

This week for Mock Draft Monday, we’ll be performing a 2 round rookie mock draft to see how the guys feel about the rookies post-NFL Combine. What has changed? Who has risen? Who has fallen?

1.01 N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State

He is who we thought he was athletically.  He proved as much at the combine with speed coming in where we thought it would and with a strong showing at 27 bench reps. Harry stays firmly planted in my 1.01 spot. No concerns arose and no one else (that’s right, NO ONE else) destroyed the combine to shake things up at the top of my first round.

-Josh Padgett

1.02  D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

Metcalf’s performance at last weeks scouting combine has solidified him as a top 2 prospect prior to the NFL Draft for me.  My main questions with Metcalf were his top end speed and his health. He answered both of those questions with flying colors by running a 4.33 40 yard dash and having nothing come up so far from his medicals.  The argument against Metcalf is that he had an awful 3 cone and 20 yard shuttle time. I get that these are concerns but are we really shocked that a guy who is 6’3”, 228 lbs and runs a 4.33 40 isn’t very agile and takes time to change direction.  The only thing that could possibly move Metcalf down for me is a poor landing spot or one of the other top 4 guys getting a great landing spot.

-Mike Colaianne

1.03 Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

This is a bold reaction to Harmon’s poor combine performance. Instead of my former WR1, I’ll take Butler-who has a huge ceiling for fantasy football rosters. Butler’s tape shows a dynamic playmakers with the ability to dominate defenders with his route running and athleticism. In Indianapolis Butler proved he’s a truly large threat-measuring in at the 98%tile in height, 95%tile in weight, 98th%tile in wingspan, 99th%tile in arm length, 98th%tile in hand size.

Butler ran a 4.48 40 yard dash-a seriously exciting amount of speed for his size. Butler’s height adjusted speed score put him 2nd in that category, second only to DK Metcalf. He also placed in the 88th%tile in broad jump and 78th%tile in bench press. He’s an impressive combination of size and speed.

-Matt Hicks

1.04 AJ Brown

I’m starting to lean in the direction of AJ Brown being the best WR in this class. I think he’s the safest of the class and if I can get him at 1.04, then I would be happy with the pick. He is one of the wide receivers in this class who should not be too landing spot dependent.

-Eric Adams

1.05 David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

Another player who didn’t move much for me after the combine. He performed mostly as expected. He didn’t participate in the 3 cone or the shuttles which would be where I expect him to shine. He posted numbers that matched the tape and is still the most well rounded back in this class. His draft stock will still command where you need to take him in rookie drafts, but I am comfortable here in the middle of the first round.

-Josh Padgett

1.06 Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

Josh Jacobs didn’t participate in any of the drills at the combine due to a groin injury.  Jacobs is still my RB2, right behind David Montgomery. Jacobs pops off the tape with his speed, explosiveness and strength.  He is a natural pass catcher and can easily be a three-down back in the NFL. I’m not to concerned with the limited production due to the fact that he was splitting reps with Damian Harris and Najee Harris, both of whom will end up playing in the NFL.

-Mike Colaianne

1.07 Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State

I’ve taken Harmon in many mock drafts with the 1.01, his draft position in this mock draft in as accurate representation to how poor his combine performance was. Harmon finished below the 30th%tile in: 40 yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, 3-cone drill, and 20 yard shuttle. Harmon’s only redeeming score was his 18 reps on the bench press.

The combine, however, was never going to be great for Harmon. What he does well doesn’t show up in athletic testing. He has fantastic route running ability, great football, some of the best hands in the class, and consistently wins contested catches. He’s the best blocking wideout in this class. Harmon is the most pro-ready wide receiver in the group and he has a legitimate chance to see the field and start putting up fantasy football points Week 1.

-Matt Hicks

1.08 TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa

The best tight end in this class in my opinion, Hockenson is getting overshadowed by the athletic ability of his fellow Iowa tight end Noah Fant. I’m here to tell you he is just as good, if not better at catching the ball. He may be a little slower but I expect the overall ability to shine through. I have Hock at 1A and Fant at 1B. Where they land will break the tie for me.

-Eric Adams

1.09 Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

Fant was confirmed as a freak athlete by his combine. That confirms his first round status for rookie drafts for me. He has the upside to have an Evan Engram type rookie year.  Fant is of the archetype that will score fantasy points early on in his career. A great pass catcher with crazy lateral agility, he will make some wow plays this year. The small tier of top tight ends in the NFL could be adding a member here.

-Josh Padgett

1.10 Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma

Without the injury concerns, Anderson would be a top 5 player in this rookie class for fantasy.  Anderson is extremely well rounded and has the size/skill set to be a three down back. If Anderson can get past all of the injuries and stay healthy in the NFL, he can be a major steal in rookie drafts this year.  

-Mike Colaianne

1.11 Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M

Williams had a pedestrian combine, which is going to help him continue to fly under the radar in fantasy football drafts. He ran a 4.51 40-yard dash and jumped 121” in the broad jump. I believe Williams falls into the 2nd round in most fantasy football rookie drafts, but I’ll continue to drive his ADP up.

Williams has monster production; with 2 seasons of 1000+ rushing yards against SEC defenses. He has great vision, quick and clean cuts, and is dangerous in open space. Williams profiles as one of the few running backs in this class with 3-down potential and that makes him very valuable in PPR leagues.

-Matt Hicks

1.12 Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown, WR, Oklahoma

At the back end of the first round, I’d be willing to take a risk on a guy that I wouldn’t need immediate help from. Brown is that guy in my opinion. If it weren’t for his foot injury, Brown would likely be going a lot higher. I love his game and his speed should translate well. The upside alone is good enough for me at the 1.12.

-Eric Adams

2.01 Emmanuel Hall, WR, Missouri

Hall is a guy who had been rising on draft boards prior to lighting the combine on fire. He put up huge numbers in the vert and broad jump. He ran 4.40 40. Testing far better than I expected him to solidifies the hype for me as he continues rising.  Those athletic numbers should move Hall up the NFL draft boards as well. It also shows that Hall is very much back from his injury last year. He missed games in all 4 years of his college career, but his production when he was on the field is intriguing. Without knowing results of his medicals, we have to trust his numbers that show he is healthy.  If he can maintain that health, he can produce in the NFL.

-Josh Padgett

2.02 Parris Campbell, WR, Ohio State

I just miss out on my boy Emmanuel Hall, but Paris Campbell is a nice consolation prize. Campbell was another winner from the combine, where he ran a 4.31 40, had a vertical jump of 40” and a broad jump of 135”.  With that speed and explosiveness, Campbell should be able to get on the field right away and be used in a variety of ways.

-Mike Colaianne

2.03 Miles Sanders, RB, Penn State

Sanders had possibly the best combine performance of any running back this year. He ran a 4.49 40-yard dash, equal to Darrell Henderson, despite weighing in at 211 lbs. He scored in the 71st%tile in vertical jump, 85th%tile in broad jump, 74th%tile in 3-cone drill, 65th%tile in 20-yard shuttle, and threw up 20 reps on the bench press.

Sanders tape shows a great athlete, but I was waiting until the combine to confirm that he was as athletic as he is quick on tape. He is a great combination of size, quickness, and power; a rare combination in this year’s draft class.

-Matt Hicks

2.04 Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama

I have been gushing about TJ Hockenson and Noah Fant so much that I have been sort of neglecting Irv Smith Jr. Don’t get it twisted, I LOVE Irv Smith. I just don’t love him as much as I do the other two guys. He should make an impact year 1 and is definitely a top 2 tight end in this class.

-Eric Adams

2.05 Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina

Deebo is a polarizing prospect for most. The strongest aspect of his game is his ability with the ball in his hands. His combine numbers were a little lackluster compared to my expectations. A 7.03 3 cone time is especially interesting for a guy who hangs his hat on quick cuts. I thought his change of direction would have shown a little better in the numbers.  However, the tape still shows the ability to create extra yards after the catch. He may not be a freak athlete, but he is an NFL level athlete with strong route running and a calling card that will let him stick as a return man. Opportunity will be there for Deebo.

-Josh Padgett

2.06 Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

HE IS 5’10”, 207 LBS!!! Murray is a perceived winner from the combine, with rumors already popping up of him being the first overall pick in the NFL draft.  If history repeats, that means Murray will most likely get on the field in his first season. I’m not sure he will be a good NFL quarterback, but Murray has the athleticism and arm talent that could make him a valuable fantasy option.  

-Mike Colaianne

2.07 Jalen Hurd, WR, Baylor

Hurd continues to fly under the radar with an injury that has now prevented him from participating in both the senior bowl and extensively in Indianapolis. Hurd did, however, show off his strength at the combine by throwing up 225 lbs. 23 times. Hurd also measured in at the 95th%tile in height and 94th%tile in weight. His tape shows a high level of athleticism for someone so strong. He’s raw but his upside is fantastic.

-Matt Hicks

2.08 David Sills V, WR, West Virginia

I took this opportunity at 2.08 to give some recognition to a prospect who played his ass off in college. David Sills is a good player. He is a very good wide receiver. He is not getting nearly the amount of love he should be getting. He has a bit of a lanky frame but he is 6’4” and can go up and get jump balls. I like Sills a lot and I think someone in rounds 3-5 in the NFL Draft will be happy they took him. Big time sleeper pick in Sills.

-Eric Adams

2.09 Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis

Henderson ran well at the combine with a 4.49 40. He decided to skip the agility drills, but he jumped well and put up 22 reps on the bench. Henderson was a guy who relied on big plays in college and he produced them constantly.  He is not a plus athlete, but he should be able to contribute to a rotation in the NFL. He showed solid hands as well though he only averaged about 1.5 receptions per game in his career. I think Henderson has as good a chance as almost anyone in this class to fill a three down role. Will he be a workhorse? I doubt it. Which is why he is around in the late second round.

-Josh Padgett

2.10 Damien Harris, RB, Alabama

Harris didn’t really do anything to his stock at the combine.  He put up respectable numbers through most of the tests. I would have liked to see him put up more then 16 reps on the bench press, but he displays a ton of strength when running the ball in his film.  Harris should be a solid contributor on first and second down in the NFL.

-Mike Colaianne

2.11 Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M

Lost among the hype of this year’s “big 3” TEs is a well rounded, dynamic pass catching and blocking tight end from College Station. Sternberger dominates the first third of the field as a pass catcher. He won’t burn defenders but can make defenders miss in space after the catch to break off a big play. He is a great route runner for a man of his size. He’s also a solid and run blocker; which will allow him to get on the field quick.

The talent in this year’s TE class, coupled with the lack of fantasy football production at the TE position in 2018, justifies 4 tight ends coming off the board in the first 2 rounds of rookie drafts.

-Matt Hicks

2.12 Andy Isabella, WR, UMass

Isabella was a big fish in a small pond at UMass. He put up big numbers against Georgia and proved time and time again that he is a very complete receiver. I am all over the place with where he could go in the NFL Draft but what I do know is Isabella will make an impact in 2019 for Fantasy and I will gladly take him at 2.12.

-Eric Adams

Perfect DraftKings Lineup: Defensive and Other Lineup Construction Trends

This five-part series concludes with notable defensive trends as well as some overall lineup construction trends.  While it may not feel or look like it, defense still has a vital role in the league; look no further than Super Bowl 53 when Brian Flores completely shut down Sean McVay’s octane offense.  Defense does win games even in a league that is predicated on offense nowadays as this first trend illustrates.

NO DEFENSE IN THE PERFECT LINEUP LOST ITS GAME

The first two weeks hilariously contained defenses in the perfect lineup that played to ties.  However, coming as no surprise from Week 3 on, the perfect defense won their game straight up.  By predicting who will win games, it can eliminate half of the available pool of defenses to select from.  It’s very rare that the top defense in a week lost its game to the point that it hasn’t happened in fantasy football since Week 4 of 2015 when Detroit amassed 24 fantasy points in a loss to Seattle.

11 OF THE 17 DEFENSES WERE FAVORITES

Like the fans, Vegas is still learning about the 32 teams early on that for as bad as the Bills were offensively in the first half of 2018, they possessed a competent defense that everyone in suicide pools and DFS discovered as 17-point underdogs in Week 3.  Go back to Week 1 in 2017 and Jacksonville made the perfect lineup as six-point underdogs against an awful Tom Savage that ultimately gave DeShaun Watson the starting job.  

Once the first few weeks play out, Vegas has a better pulse on the teams and it shows as no defense heading into their respective perfect game was worse than 3.5-point underdogs.  This trend is an extension of the one listed above and further reduces the pool of suitable options.  It would take balls to start a double-digit underdog as a fantasy defense, the type of balls that less than a percent of people in the Milly Maker had who started the Bills as 17-point dogs.

15 OF THE 17 DEFENSES WERE PRICED NO MORE THAN $3000

Two viable defensive strategies proved effective in 2018.  Rostering the Bears defense each week would have given you nine double-digit fantasy point performances, the most in the NFL.  The other option was rostering the defense against a Cardinals offense that allowed a league-high 10 double-digit fantasy point performances.  Implementing these strategies would be costly as most weeks, the Bears or whoever the Cardinals dueled with were the priciest defenses on the board.

Luckily the best defense on the main slate was over $3000 just twice, demonstrating that paying down at that position can be just as effective as paying up for what are considered to be the top defensive options heading into the week.  Chiacgo and Miami were the top two defenses on the Week 9 main slate with a difference of $1300 in salary and three fantasy points.  That extra salary could find better use in helping to pay up for some top-tiered talent at other positions.  Especially when the top-priced defense was never the perfect defense at any point in 2018.

13 OF THE 17 DEFENSES HELD THEIR OPPONENT UNDER THEIR TEAM TOTAL

In its simplest form, the primary goal of a defense is to keep another team off a scoreboard.  Targeting games with low game totals is one way to go about this process.  Like running back, there is a stronger correlation in utilizing the team totals by rostering defenses against opposing offenses not expected to generate much offense.  The Cardinals were dead last in a variety of offensive categories and metrics last season that it made them a weekly piñata as they only exceeded their team total three times.  

Of course just keeping opponents off the scoreboard won’t be enough to earn a spot in the perfect lineup.  Pitching a shutout nets 10 fantasy points but every defense needed an additional boost to get on the exclusive list.

15 OF THE 17 DEFENSES FORCED MULTIPLE TURNOVERS

Ultimately, the goal of selecting a fantasy defense is identifying the one that has the best chance to hold an opposing offense to as little points as possible while scoring a defensive touchdown.  Forecasting which one will register a pick 6 or special teams touchdown can be as much of a science as meteorologists trying to predict the weather.  Even with the increase in technology and tools, you’d think that they be able to give an accurate report on a daily basis.  Selecting a defense can feel the same way as there have never been more databases and tools for fantasy players to access.  Yet, there are so many variables in 60 minutes of football that determine success and failure for fantasy defenses.  

Let’s not forget the low frequency of defensive/special teams touchdown that occur year after year.  There were 83 occurrences in 2018, an average of 5.18 per week.  Let alone trying to predict who’s going to return a kickoff or punt to the house will be enough to drive one bonkers and is simply not a viable option.

The best course of action in finding a defense that can score a touchdown is selecting ones that best create opportunities to allow that to happen.  12 of the 17 perfect defenses sacked the quarterback at minimum three times, all opportunities that force precious turnovers that increase the opportunity for a defensive score.  In the 15 games in which a defense forced multiple turnovers, nine of them did so in games they scored a defensive touchdown.

Playing on the road, inclement weather, backup quarterbacks, porous offensive lines, and increased wind speeds are just some of the variables that can influence turnovers.  If cognizant of these factors, it can help place you in the best spot to roster the best defense in what can be tough position to project.

OTHER NOTABLE TRENDS

15 OF THE 17 PERFECT LINEUPS FEATURED GAME STACKS

Each main slate featured at least one team stack and that was nearly identical for game stacks as only two of them didn’t feature one.  Of the 21 game stacks that occurred, the most common was an RB+WR which occurred four times followed by an RB+TE and WR+WR stack happening twice.  A variety of other game stacks from WR-WR+WR to QB-RB+WR found their way into the perfect lineup as well as unusual combinations from WR+DEF to RB+DEF.

Stacking as many players from both teams in matchups with low spreads and high game totals is a commonly applied strategy.  Regular season matchups like the Saints-Rams, Chiefs-Rams, and Chiefs-Patriots come to mind though the former two unfortunately weren’t on the main slate.  Like Al Zeidenfeld cleverly professes in these situations, “Play all the dudes.”

Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeSean Jackson formed a stack along with an opposing, underpriced stack of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara at a Mercedes-Benz Superdome known for some shootouts in Week 1.  The following week saw another shootout where Jesse James and JuJu Smith-Schuster slaughtered a Chiefs defense that hardly played any in 2018 against a Steelers defense that had no answer for the duo of Mahomes and Kelce.  

More often than not, you will have the two or three-player game stacks that frequent the perfect lineup.  The RB+WR variety makes sense in that a running back slaughters a team on his own while the opposing offense utilizes a wide receiver in an effort to play-catch-up; Ezekiel Elliott and Golden Tate in Week 4 are the perfect illustration of this theory.  When the stars align and both offenses are clicking, nothing beats having pieces of both teams in a lineup and watching the DK points accumulate.

THERE WERE ONLY SIX INSTANCES OF BACK-TO-BACK ENTRIES IN THE PERFECT LINEUP

Recency bias plays a factor each and every week in any cash game or tournament.  The competition gets gitty when an Amari Cooper or a Tarik Cohen goes off the week before and then is highly disappointed when these players fail to meet the expectations bestowed upon them from the prior week’s performance.  

Observing from a macro level, taking all of the fantasy positions in 2018 other than the kicker, there were 28 occurrences in which a top-3 performance was duplicated the following week.  This doesn’t include perfect lineup figures but encompasses all of fantasy football players in full-point PPR leagues last season.  Of those 28, just three of them stretched multiple weeks with Todd Gurley posting top-3 performances at his position four weeks in a row along with Drew Brees and Zach Ertz doing so in three-week stretches.  

In terms of frequency, the running back position saw the most with 12 posting top-3 performances in consecutive weeks while the wide receiver had just two in Michael Thomas and Tyreek Hill.  With bell cow backs making up a majority of the 12, this reinforces two ideas that were discussed earlier regarding paying up for the top-tiered running backs and paying down at the wide receiver position with the inconsistency at the top of the fantasy point leaderboard for receivers each week.  

There are some variables that impact the low number of back-to-back top-3 performances in the DraftKings perfect lineup.  First, playing on Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night removes those respective players from eligibility on that week’s main slate.  That number of six back-to-back top-3 performances could certainly be higher if the main slate wasn’t limited to just the Sunday afternoon block of games.  Second, salary increases to those who excel the prior week make it more difficult to insert them the following week and still put together the best possible lineup.  Of those six repeat perfect lineup occurrences, running backs represented four of them (Barkley, Gurley, McCaffery, Mixon) while the wide receiver (Thielen) and tight end (Kelce) made up one each.

This teaches us the importance of when the masses zig in one direction, zag in another one.  Naturally it’s easier to go with what’s comfortable and select the player that had an incredible performance the prior week vs the contrary that didn’t post double-digit fantasy points.  If the same players kept repeating their dominant performances, fantasy football would be so easy and predictable that fantasy football analysts wouldn’t be needed and everyone would be printing money in DFS. Another way to understand recency bias is why pay an additional $600-$1000 in salary for a player that excelled the prior week that more likely than not will come back to earth or fall way short of projections? 

THE AVERAGE COST OF THE FLEX POSITION WAS $4135

8 of the 17 perfect flex spots went to running backs who averaged 22.5 touches at an average cost of $4587.  $203.86 per touch isn’t too shabby for trying to squeeze in a player with the last remaining salary available.  Tarik Cohen made it twice as a flex option while those that were in the fantasy playoffs in redraft leagues may recall Derrick Henry’s two games of dominance, one which landed him as a perfect flex off 34 touches and a steal of a $5000 salary in Week 15.

Double tight ends had its spots as five occurrences featured two tight ends making the cut.  Being that it was the most recent main slate, no one would have expected Blake Jarwin’s three touchdown performance in Week 17.  He paired with George Kittle as Kyle Shanahan did whatever it took to feed Kittle towards a record.

Four wide receivers were perfect flex options with two of them pairing with an opposing receiver to form game stacks.  DeSean Jackson and Michael Thomas both went off in a Bayou shootout that saw the Bucs shock the Saints to open the season.  Kenny Golladay has his way with the Panthers secondary while D.J. Moore did his best to duplicate that performance in Week 11

Back around 2015 when both FanDuel and DraftKings invested heavily in television advertising, DK’s commercial would ask who your million dollar player would be.  That commercial referred to the flex position and that low-rostered player that would be the difference maker.  It came in the form of Jesse James, Calvin Ridley, Maurice Harris, and Blake Jarwin at various points of last season.  That commercial still holds credence to this day as 13 of the 17 main slates had one player, not including the quarterback or defense, that was priced under $4000.  

CONCLUSION

While this series was intended to serve as an aid in roster construction, don’t treat it as gospel as these trends as well as offensive and defensive philosophies are subject to change each season.  The NFL is very much a copycat league as those who were looking for a head coach this offseason were trying to find the next Sean McVay.  By the end of the 2019 season, teams with coaching vacancies could be looking for the next Frank Reich or Brian Flores or whoever is the hot name enjoying success and implement their philosophies.

What we know heading into 2019 is that the NFL has become a passing league with quarterbacks and wide receivers posting record numbers in 2018.  While rushing attempts decreased, running backs experienced great success with their utilization out of the backfield which in effect has taken a toll on the tight end position as illustrated in part four of the series.

We can take this knowledge and gear our first few lineups of 2019 towards these trends.  After the first few weeks play out, we can reassess those trends and adjust our lineup construction philosophies if need be.  Staying flexible is an important attribute to have as some of the trends I described may change when I compose this writing following the 2019 season.  As long as we remain keen to what is transpiring on the field, we can remain prepared to generate the best possible lineups in an effort to build the perfect one.

4 Dynasty Players to Buy Now

Earlier this off-season I went over the guys I would look to sell high on for value. Now I want to get into players I am interested in buying in dynasty. To be clear, this is not saying to go out and pay a premium for these guys. However, I do believe some of them could be a value in your league. Some of these guys are players who others might be too low on for various reasons. Others were limited by injury and that might lead to them being available at a discount. Here is part 1 of the players I like as dynasty buys:

Dak Prescott

In fantasy, people never seem that high on Dak, but all 3 seasons of his NFL career he has finished the year as a QB1. In each season he has also rushed for 6 TDs. It’s a part of his game that will add value every season for fantasy. Dak has been consistent for fantasy and real life football purposes over his career. He has a career 66.1% completion percentage, 1.7% interception percentage, and a record of 32-16. He seems to be perpetually undervalued and that is why I see him as a great buy. In 2019 redraft leagues, he will be undervalued and a player I will target. In Dynasty, I am looking to add him everywhere I can.

2018 did not start off well for Dak but once Dallas traded for Amari Cooper he was a different player. He played 7 games without Cooper and 9 with him. The table below illustrates how Dak’s numbers look with and without Amari:

Passing YPGCompletion %TD%Fantasy PPG
Without Cooper202.4362.14%3.88%16.04
With Cooper27%.2271.25&4.38%19.29

At the pace he was playing with Cooper, he would have finished as the QB8 over a full 16-game season. Things are trending up for the Cowboys’ offense heading into 2019. Zeke became more involved in the passing game, Cooper changed the offense for the better with his arrival and Jason Witten announced his return from retirement. Witten will not put up numbers that will stand out, but he will help keep drives alive on 3rd downs. This will lead to more opportunities for Dak and the Cowboys to score both real and fantasy points. If Travis Frederick can return from his health issues, then this Cowboys offense can take off in 2019.

Dante Pettis

Last year, I was all in on Kenny Golladay as a breakout WR and this year I feel the same about Dante Pettis. While they are different types of players physically, I am expecting Pettis to take a big step forward in 2019. Both showed flashes in their rookie seasons, but missed time with injuries. Pettis comes into this season with an easier path to volume than Golladay in 2018. Other than George Kittle, the passing hierarchy in San Francisco is not clear. If they were to cut Pierre Garcon, even though he will shave a large dead cap hit, then it sends a message that the 49ers are ready to get their younger wide receivers into the game. Marquise Goodwin is still on the team, but he is best served as a deep threat. He has never caught more than 56 passes in a season and has a career catch rate of 49.4%. Goodwin also has a history with injuries that needs to be taken into account.

Even though it was a small sample, when Pettis was fully healthy for a 4 week stretch he averaged 18.8 points a game in PPR and was the WR 8 in that time frame. He scored 5 TDs on the season and averaged over 17 yards per reception. He did most of this without Garoppolo under center in those games; if both are healthy in 2019 it could be the start of a great connection between 2 talented young players.

Pettis is my favorite target this offseason with a weak free agent class at WR and other needs to address at the top of the draft, it doesn’t seem likely a high profile addition is coming to San Francisco in 2019. Unless the 49ers make a big splash by trading for Antonio Brown, the path to targets is clear for Dante Pettis. There are other young wide receivers on the roster he will need to compete with, but in my opinion Pettis is the most talented of them and that talent will win out going into 2019.

Marlon Mack

I was high on Mack going into 2018 and even though he missed 4 games, he did not disappoint. In 12 games, he finished as the 21st RB in PPR leagues. However, the number that really stands out is he was 14th in fantasy points per game. Over the last 10 games of the season once fully healthy, Mack averaged just over 16 carries per game for 4.8 yards per carry and scored 10 total TDs. The Colts won 9 of those 10 games, the only loss coming in an ugly game at Jacksonville, which was also the worst game Mack had all season. People still do not seem to believe in Mack as an NFL back or for fantasy, which I think is a mistake. It also presents an opportunity to buy him as a value before he gets a lot more expensive.

With the improvement along the offensive line for the Colts and the return to form for Andrew Luck, getting volume in this offense is going to be very valuable for fantasy. The Colts do have a ton of cap space available, but because of what I see in Mack I do not expect them to go spend big money on a free agent like Le’Veon Bell. Throwing a ton of money at a position where production is so replaceable is not what smart teams do. The Colts are going to compete to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl and Mack is going to be a large part of it. The Colts already spent 2 picks on RBs last year so the depth chart is all young RBs, using a higher pick in the draft on one does not make sense. If Mack is healthy, he is secure in his job as the starter and I expect him to be on a lot of playoff teams in 2019.

Hunter Henry

Going into 2018 I was very high on Hunter Henry, so when he tore his ACL it was rough for me. Now after seeing players like Kittle and Howard break out in 2018, Henry is probably going to end up ranked lower than he should be. In 2018, we were expecting to see Henry without Gates syphoning off targets, but the breakout I expected was derailed by the injury. Henry has already shown he is a dangerous Red Zone weapon. In his first two seasons, he was targeted 28 times and scored 10 TDs.

The Tight End situation for the Chargers was not pretty in 2018. Henry was replaced with a combination of old Antonio Gates and Virgil Green. They combined for 72 targets and 3 TDs. This is not normal for Philip Rivers and the Chargers’ offense historically. In 2017, Henry and Gates combined for 114 targets and 7 TDs. In 2016, they combined for 146 targets and 12 TDs. With Henry back on the field the Chargers will go back to involving the TE more. It will not go back to 2016 levels because that was the year Keenan Allen went down for the season in week 1. I do believe the target volume will come in closer to 2017, which means Henry will have a lot of value.

Henry represents a huge upgrade athletically for the Chargers at TE. Gates is well past his prime and Green is better served as a blocker than a pass catcher. I am very happy to have Henry on IR on 2 of my dynasty teams and if I can add him in any other leagues before his value gets back to where it should be, then I will pay the discounted price with a smile.

Fantasy Football Big Board 1.0 (Hicks)

Welcome to my first fantasy football big board. I’ve already released positional rankings, based purely on tape, for each position group. You may want to check out those articles before reading this if you haven’t already-I will refer to them often throughout this article. You can find those articles here:

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

My Big Board rankings, however, go beyond tape and take into account all the context we get in between now and Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season. In particular, this release takes into account NFL Combine performance.

I use tier based rankings. If you’re not used to this system note that players within the same tier have similar value for me. Choosing players within the same tier should come down to: personal preference of the fantasy football player making the draft pick (hey, it’s your pick not mine) and what your roster construction demands.

You can see how my rankings mach-up with my fellow dynasty writers by checking out or full prospect database at the 48 Report

Tier 1

Tier 1 features the players I have consistently considered to be the best in the 2019 NFL Draft class, in terms of their ability to contribute to fantasy football rosters. These players have moved around slightly from their NFL combine performance, but they all have legitimate upside and make for solid first round rookie draft picks.

1WRN’Keal HarryArizona State6’4″213
2WRDK MetcalfOle Miss6’4″225
3WRKelvin HarmonNC State6’2″215
4WRHakeem ButlerIowa State6’6″225
5RBRodney AndersonOklahoma6’2″220
6RBJosh JacobsAlabama5’11216
7WRAJ BrownOle Miss6’1″225
8TENoah FantIowa6’5″240
9RBDavid MontgomeryIowa State5’11216

It’s clear that this draft class is dominated by wide receivers-a position already coveted by dynasty fantasy football players. I have 5 wide outs ranked in my top 7, and I do believe that 4 of them should be drafted before we consider taking a running back or tight end.

N’Keal Harry and DK Metcalf jumped Kelvin Harmon in between my pre-big board rankings and this release. I still love Harmon and I believe his skillset will allow him to be a very productive wide receiver int he NFL and a great fantasy football value. Harmon’s combine, however, showed a limited ceiling-compared to Harry and Metcalf. Harry gets the nod for me over Metcalf because of breakout age, production in a defunct Arizona State offense, high athletic upside shown from tape and combine performance, and the higher floor he brings to your roster.

Rodney Anderson remains my RB1, based on tremendous (albeit limited) tape. He’s explosive, a rare combination of strength and athleticism, and has true 3 down back potential. Josh Jacobs’ choice to not test at the combine is concerning, but for the sake of positional scarcity and his dynamic upside he will remain in tier 1 for me. Montgomery remains a solid, balanced prospect whose potential will either soar or tank with his landing spot.

Fant’s ridiculous combine performance solidifies him as a first round rookie draft pick. He tested in the 96th%tile in the 40 yard dash (4.5), 97th%tile in the vertical jump (39.5″), 95th%tile in the 3-cone drill (6.81), 79th%tile in the 20 yard shuttle, and 91st%tile in the 60 yard shuttle. As much as I like his TE teammate from Iowa, Fant demonstrated in Indianapolis why he is the clear TE1 in this draft class.


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Tier 2

Tier 2 is when things get exciting. This is where fantasy football players get to break from “playing it safe” with early, high floor, picks and start taking their favorite prospects. This year’s draft class provides an eclectic but exciting combination of prospects that fantasy football players can fall in love with.

10RBMiles SandersPenn State5’11’215
11TETJ HockensonIowa6’5″250
12RBJustice HillOklahoma State5’10190
13WRParis CampbellOhio State6’1″208
14RBTrayveon WilliamsTexas A&M5’9200
15WRDeebo SamuelSouth Carolina6’0″210
16RBDamien HarrisAlabama5’10”215
17WREmanuel HallMissouri6’3″195
18TEIrv Smith JrAlabama6’3″243
19WRJalen HurdBaylor6’4″217
20WRMarquise BrownOklahoma5’10”168
21RBBenny SnellKentucky5’11”223
22QBDrew LockMissouri6’4″225
23RBDevin SingletaryFlorida Atlantic5’9200

My focus in round 1 of rookie drafts this year is wide receiver. Part of that is the talent at the top of that position, but part of it is the value you can get at running back in round 2. Miles Sanders showed out in Indianapolis-proving he’s just as athletic in testing as he looks on tape; making him the highest riser on my big board. Justice Hill’s combine solidified his high ceiling and proved for me that he is made to be a PPR threat for year’s to come. Trayveon Williams didn’t impress as much at the combine, but didn’t tank his draft stock either-his tape and production still warrant early round 2 consideration.

Parris Campbell and Emmanuel Hall both boosted their big board rank from their combine performance. I was skeptical that Campbell’s tape was a product of a well-designed system; he proved me wrong after testing in the 90th%tile or better in the 40 yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump, and 20 yard shuttle. His 40 yard dash time was an impressive 4.31. Hall ran a 4.39 40-yard dash (87th%tile) and tested in the 98th%tile in vertical jump and 99th%tile in broad jump. Hall was a player I was higher on than most in pre-combine rankings and he proved in Indianapolis what I saw on tape-a very high ceiling.

This tier also features a few players whose stock seem to be consistently falling. Damien Harris has done nothing bad through the draft process-he just hasn’t done anything exciting; so he continues to slide. I’ve been low on Hollywood Brown from tape, and his injury prevented him from proving me wrong with high athletic testing numbers. Benny Snell and Devin Singletary both disappointed at the combine; Snell proved he is a two down back at best in the NFL and Singletary showed he may not even be that.

Tier 3

Tier 3 is where things start to get wild. It’s a messy combination of hidden gems, high upside/big risk options, and where you will find the bulk of this year’s quarterback class.

24TEJace StrenbergerTexas A&M6’4″250
25QBKyler MurrayOklahoma 5’10”195
26RBDarrell HendersonMemphis5’9″200
27WRJJ Arcega-WhitesideStanford6’3225
28WRAndy IsabellaU Mass5’10”190
29WRRiley RidleyGeorgia6’2200
30QBDwayne HaskinsOhio State6’2″215
31WRLil’Jordan HumphreyTexas6’4″225
32TEDax RaymondUtah State6’5″250
33RBElijah HolyfieldGeorgia5’11”215
34QBTyree JacksonBuffalo6’7″245
35WRAnthony JohnsonBuffalo6’2207
36QBDaniel JonesDuke6’5″220
37RBMike WeberOhio State5’10214

Kyler Murray continues to buck the NFL Draft process; after deciding late to commit to football he chose to not participate beyond interviews in Indianapolis. Murray remains QB2 for me primarily because Haskins continues to be unimpressive and Murray’s dual threat upside should be coveted by fantasy football players. You’ll see that I have Lock in tier 2; if you’ve been following along with me, that shouldn’t surprise you; I gave him my highest tape grade and it’ll be landing spot that truly separates these 3 quarterbacks.

Daniel Jones continues to get round 1 NFL Draft hype and for that reason alone he remains in my tier 3. I much prefer the upside of Tyree Jackson, though, who proved to be an athletic freak for the QB position at the combine. Jackson ran a 4.59 40-yard dash; at 6’7″ 249 lbs! He also tested in the 84th%tile in the vertical jump and 91st%tile in the broad jump. He’s raw, but he continues to prove he may be worth a taxi squad stash.

This tier also features polarizing wide outs that are worth taking a risk on in the back end of the second round or early to mid third round of your rookie drafts. Arcega-Whiteside has the potential to be a touchdown monster if he falls into the right landing spot, Isabella burned at the combine with a 4.31 40-yard dash (96th%tile), and Riley Ridley is well…he’s the definition of polarizing.

Tier 4

If tier 4 is the part of your rookie draft I like to refer to as “the dart board”. At this point, all of these prospects are pure upside/high bust potential type players. It is important at this point in the draft you find “your guys”-find a guy that gets you excited and take a shot on him; there’s no playing it safe this late in the draft anyways.

38WRGreg DortchWake Forest5’9″170
39QBEaston StickNorth Dakota St6’2″222
40TEKaden SmithStanford6’5259
41TEIsaac NautaGeorgia6’4″240
42QBWill GrierWVU6’2″223
43RBDamarea CrockettMissouri5’11225
44WRDeMarkus LodgeOle Miss6’2″200
45QBBrett RypienBoise State6’2″202
46TEDawson KnoxOle Miss6’4″250
47QBJordan Ta’amuOle Miss6’2″212
48RBMyles GaskinWashington5’9″191

In the spirit of working the draft board I’ll focus here on Brett Rypien and Dawson Knox. The quarterback and tight end positions, in particular, interest me this late in rookie drafts because it is less likely I invested in them earlier in the draft.

Brett Rypien, out of Boise State, continues to fly under the radar. He isn’t the flashiest of quarterbacks, and isn’t MVP bound, but I believe that in the right landing spot he could have a long, solid NFL career. He can work all three levels of the field with good accuracy, reads defenses well, and is mobile enough to move the pocket when needed.

Dawson Knox got a low tape score from me. He is a converted quarterback playing tight end and even after a couple year’s in the position he still isn’t comfortable blocking. He is very athletic, however, and is comfortable pass catching. He saw limited work in an Ole Miss offense which also included DeMarkus Lodge, DK Metcalf, and AJ Brown. Given positional scarcity, I’ll likely be rolling the dice on Knox’s upside in my own rookie drafts this offseason.

Parris Campbell: Young, Talented and Plenty to Like

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

Parris Campbell (6’1”, 208), Wide Receiver, Ohio State

Parris Campbell seemed to be flying a bit under the radar heading into Draft season. After tearing up the NFL combine, he has officially started to get some buzz. The question here, as is the case with all of the combine warriors, is if the buzz is warranted? In the case of Parris Campbell, it’s an emphatic yes.

18.3 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

Parris Campbell was born in 1997. Let that sink in for a minute (ok now that we’re done feeling old) and realize that Campbell will just be turning 22 in time for training camp. For the 2015 season, he was 18. For the 2016 season, he was 19 and for the 2017 season he was 20. His production during those 3 years was nothing special. He accumulated just 53 catches for 705 yards and 3 touchdowns.

It wasn’t until his senior year that Campbell would finally break out and have a stellar season. He totaled 90 catches for 1,063 yards and 12 touchdowns. He is extremely young but has worked for 4 years to refine his craft as a wide receiver. I believe he can be very productive at the NFL level.

Speed/Acceleration: Aggregate Score 4.3 (Personal Score 4)

Campbell has good game speed and can burn. He works in and out of his cuts with ease and has the ability to turn on the burners. While I would argue his agility and ability to make quick cuts is his bread and butter, he still has speed to boot. He ran a 4.31 at the NFL Combine, which is blazing fast. No concerns in this area of his game.

Route Running: Aggregate Score 4.6 (Personal Score 5)

This is where Campbell really shines. He is an absolutely electric route runner. He can get open at will and is just a wide-open target waiting to happen. It is difficult to tell just how much the Ohio State offense helped in this regard but I believe Campbell deserves a lot of credit for his ability to find sot spots in the opposing defenses. He is already an elite route runner and an NFL team will fall in love with him because of this aspect of his game.

Blocking: Aggregate Score 1.6 (Personal Score 2)

The only negative to Campbell’s game is his blocking, which was virtually non-existent in the tape that we watched. While he may have some blocking chops, he just didn’t do it enough to warrant a high score. I know this is for fantasy football and those that play could give a hoot about blocking but this is a way to stay on the field. If you’re not a good blocker, then you will be coming off the field for someone who is and it therefore takes more opportunities away from you.

Handwork/Positioning: Aggregate Score 3.6 (Personal Score 3)

The best thing going for Campbell when it comes to this category is he has some fire in him. If you come to the line and press him, he has the ability to embarrass you. He’s a gamer and he won’t just let you dominate him at the LOS. He has good enough size to shake defenders at the line and if you get beat when trying to press him then good luck trying to catch him.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score 4 (Personal Score 4)

His combine speaks to his athleticism. He posted elite scores up and down the board. The only area he scored poorly in was the bench press where he posted just 11 reps and everything else was in the upper echelon for wide receivers. Campbell clearly possesses some traits that NFL teams would love to have on their team. He can be a game breaker with the way he plays the game.

Conclusion: Late 1st– Early 2nd

Campbell projects to be a slot receiver in the NFL and while I understand those projections; I can’t help but think he can be something more. I may be higher on Campbell than most but the combine along with the tape just doesn’t lie, he can be an elite receiver. Sorry if you’ve heard this before but his landing spot will matter big time. If he can find himself on a team like the Patriots or the Saints then I will gladly take him in the late 1st or early second round. His potential is undeniable.

Perfect DraftKings Lineup Tight End Trends

We continue our five-part series with the fourth installment that analyzes a tight end position that leveled out after a horrendous 2017 season.  As many in redraft and dynasty leagues can attest, finding a reliable tight end was quite the endeavor in 2018 after the position was already a dumpster fire the year before.  In fact, 2015 saw 15 tight ends maintain an average of double-digit fantasy points in PPR scoring but that number has dropped to only 13 of them in 2016 to just eight and nine in 2017 and 2018, respectively.

While overall tight end targets and touchdowns have decreased each season since 2015, overall tight end receptions and yards saw a slight bump in 2018 after experiencing the same decreases as the aforementioned targets and touchdowns.  There were 209 tight end touchdowns in 2015 and since that season, that number hasn’t eclipsed 200.

As we discussed in part two of this series, the running back has been integrated more and more into the passing game over the last few years.  Receiving touchdowns from the running back have increased from 94 in 2016 to 108 and 120 in 2017 and 2018, respectively.  Circa back to 2016 when total running back and tight end receptions were nearly identical with 2,516 of them at running back and 2,484 at tight end.  Since that season, running back receptions are up an average of 242 per year while tight end receptions are down an average of 169.  

This helps explain some of the reasoning why tight end fantasy production has been on the decline.  The running backs are syphoning work from their tight end teammates, especially when some of them are the best offensive asset on their respective teams and deserve additional work.  It also validates taking a top-tier tight end in fantasy drafts as early as the second round when Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, and George Kittle all led their offenses in receptions and targets.  The drop off after those three is pretty significant and one can only hope Eric Ebron continues what was an unexpected 2018 season and O.J. Howard rebounds from his season-ending foot and ankle injuries.

This first tight end trend should come as no surprise after reading the intro to this article.  While you were able to find bargains that did pay off, there was safety in paying up for the top options that delivered more than they disappointed.  

12 OF THE 22 PERFECT TIGHT ENDS REPRESENTED THE TOP FIVE IN SCORING AT THE POSITION IN 2018 IN FULL POINT PPR FORMATS

The struggle at this frustrating position could also be felt in the DFS community.  For the first half of 2018, rostering Zach Ertz or Travis Kelce yielded excellent returns as they represented the perfect tight end in five of the eight weeks when both were available on the main slate.  These two continued to dominate in the second half but an injury to Jack Doyle opened the door for the usually unreliable Eric Ebron to post his best season at the NFL level which generated two spots on the list.  Kittle had a December to remember as the top tight end in the final month and one that helped make money for those that rostered him in Weeks 14 and 17.

Ertz, Kelce, Kittle, and Ebron combined to make up half of the perfect tight ends with soon-to-be free agent Jared Cook sneaking into the list in Week 4 to complete the 12 occurrences from the top 5 at the position in 2018.  Pending the Week 1 schedule, the former three should represent the priciest options on the first main slate of 2019.

15 OF THE 22 TIGHT ENDS WERE PRICED UNDER $6000

Even the better tight end options had some pricing errors that made them so enticing, they couldn’t be passed up.  Travis Kelce was inexplicably priced under $6000 in Week 2 as he went off for 32.9 DK points.  Eric Ebron wasn’t correctly priced until week 13 as the DFS community took advantage of this low cost with Jack Doyle lost for the year.  George Kittle was slightly discounted at $5500 when he destroyed the Broncos to the tune of 210 yards and a touchdown.

As maddening as the position could be, 15 of the 17 weeks in 2018 featured at least one tight end not named Ertz or Kelce that scored 20+ fantasy points; Weeks 8 and 15 had no one eclipse that mark.  Like the wide receiver, this shows there were some perfect options that didn’t require breaking the bank in order to get to the coveted bell cow backs.  Austin Hooper took advantage of a Buccaneers defense that was extremely inept against the position prior to defensive coordinator Mike Smith being fired at the low cost of $3500.  Kyle Rudolph had dominated at Ford Field to the tune of 17.56 FPPG in his last three at that venue prior to the 2018 matchup that saw him continue that trend with a 36.2 DK point performance.  $3400 was the cost to roster his best performance of the year.

THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF RECEPTIONS PER GAME FOR THE TIGHT ENDS WAS 7.73 

This figure is nearly identical to the average number of catches for the perfect receivers.  The ceiling was 16 catches by Zach Ertz who slaughtered the Texans while Eric Ebron needed three touchdowns off as few as four touches to cement his spot in perfection.  There’s no secret here, paying up means obtaining a solid floor of volume while rolling the dice on a cheaper option can pay off but is certainly a riskier proposition; ask those that rostered Matt LaCosse and Anthony Firkser who both posted goose eggs in favorable matchups in Week 13 and 15 respectively. 

HOUSTON, CLEVELAND, OAKLAND, DENVER, AND MIAMI EACH ALLOWED TWO TIGHT ENDS IN THE PERFECT LINEUP

All five of these teams have been repeat offenders in the top 10 in FPA to tight ends since 2017.  Cleveland’s spot on this list should come as no surprise as they’ve been inside the top 10 in FPA in each of the last three years.  The Browns looked to have remedied their issues in the first eight games but allowed 17.81 FPPG in the second half to the position.  Pending where Jared Cook lands in the offseason and Gronk’s decision to continue to suit up or retire, the Browns tight end schedule eases up in 2019 as they would only face two tight ends inside the top 10 in FPPG in 2018 in George Kittle and Vance McDonald.  

Oakland and Denver fall victim to facing Travis Kelce twice a year which explains part of their heartache.  Still, the Broncos allowed a tight end playing his first game in the NFL in Will Dissly and an aged Antonio Gates to have their best performances of the season while the Raiders let a cornucopia of Ravens and Colts tight ends destroy them.  The Dolphins will benefit from a retired Gronk if that indeed happens but still deal with Zach Ertz and an Indianapolis offense that almost doubled up every team in touchdowns thrown to the position last season.  The Texans have dates with that same Colts offense and Travis Kelce who the Texans have failed to contain in three of four career matchups.

CONCLUSION

When August comes around and you get to the second round of redraft leagues, you will be faced with the decision of taking one of the big three tight ends or playing the crapshoot at the position.  That’s the same scenario DFS players will face weekly in 2019.   

Playing the defensive matchups can work to your advantage as the last trend indicates where paying down is viable.  However, that’s the headache in what can be an unreliable position.  Will you pay up for the consistent Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz, or let it ride on a cheaper option in a favorable matchup?  Hopefully our struggle is alleviated with the emergence of more reliable tight end options as the 2019 season unfolds.

Devin Singletary: Wildcard NFL Draft Prospect

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

Devin Singletary (5’9”, 200), Running Back, Florida Atlantic:

Devin Singletary has a lot of buzz amongst the dynasty fantasy football community. He has tremendous college production and his tape leaves you drooling for his upside. He has flaws, and played questionable competition in his three years with the Owls but is currently projected to be a Day 2 NFL draft pick. Landing spot aside, Singletary has the opportunity to contribute to both the rushing and passing attack of an NFL offense.

15.6 Aggregate Score (3 Star Prospect)

Singletary left a legendary legacy in Boca Raton. He ran for 4,287 yards on 714 attempts (6 yards/carry) for 66 touchdowns in just three seasons with Florida Atlantic. He also caught 51 receptions for 397 yards and a touchdown in his career. Singletary led the Central USA in rushing in both 2017 & 2018; he finished 7th in rushing yards in his freshmen year. In just 3 seasons, he has the 8th most career rushing touchdowns in NCAA history.

Singletary’s stats are impressive but the immediate reactions when talking about Central USA prospects in to question the level of competition he’s faced. While Singletary hasn’t faced the competition that prospects like Jacobs or Sanders have, he performed well in big games. He ran for 69 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries while traveling to play Oklahoma in 2018. He also threw up 131 rushing yards on 25 attempts and 3 touchdowns against UCF. Against Old Dominion, who upset Virginia Tech in 2018, he ran for 168 yards on 19 carries (8.8 yards/carry) and 2 touchdowns. Singletary showed up and played big when asked, which helps make him an intriguing sleeper prospect.

Speed & Agility: Aggregate Score 3.6 (Personal Score 4)

Singletary is quicker than he is fast. He moves very well laterally and keeps his feet moving at a high rate. He can accelerate but doesn’t have the highest breakaway speed in this class. Still, he’s elusive and bounces through holes with sharp cut moves. I understand why my fellow raters had him lower than me, but his quickness makes up for top end breakaway speed.

Receiving Ability: Aggregate Score 3.3 (Personal Score 3)

Singletary saw a sharp drop off in his passing game involvement his junior year (2018). He caught 39 receptions for 361 yards and a touchdown in his first two seasons with Florida Atlantic. In 2018 he caught just 6 balls for 36 yards. Although the drop off can be contributed to scheme change and improved quarterback play, it is still frustrating to not be able to see more of his receiving capability on tape. From what I did see, he has soft hands and has the ability to contribute to an NFL passing attack.

Vision: Aggregate Score 2.6 (Personal Score 3)

Singletary’s vision is what holds him back from being a top 5 running back prospect for me. He is a home run hitter; he either finds the whole and bursts through it or runs right into the back of his offensive linemen. He is a patient runner, but that patience often led to him being wrapped up for a loss. I think this can be credited, in part, to the pressure he faced to create in Lane Kiffin’s offense. Still, vision is a harder thing to teach, and it makes Singletary very landing spot dependent.

Blocking: Aggregate Score 2.6 (Personal Score 3)

I’m surprised to see Singletary not rated higher by my fellow raters here. He impressed me with his strength and ability to pick up on blitzers; especially for someone who is 5’9”. I think NFL teams will appreciate that Singletary also can act as an effective lead blocker; it makes him versatile and expands the packages he can fit into,

Strength: Aggregate Score 3.6 (Personal Score 4)

This is what makes Singletary for me. He leverages his size well to stay under defenders and truck them when he’s accelerating downfield. He consistently swipes defenders off him and forces multiple guys to get to him before the play ends. He’s not afraid to put his head down and fight for extra yards, and his balance often allows him to pile up yards after contact.

Conclusion: Second Round Wildcard

I’ve seen Singletary go off the board just about everywhere in the dozen-plus mock drafts I have done so far this offseason. I think his ceiling is mid first-round, and if your league mates aren’t as keyed in he may fall to the 3rd round. Personally, I’m comfortable taking him in the second but if he lands behind a good offensive line then I’m willing to spend a late first rounder on him.

Welcome to Hollywood, NFL: Brown a 4 Star Prospect

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters. 

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Marquise Brown (5’10”, 168) Wide Receiver, Oklahoma

18.3 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown isn’t like most of the other top end receivers in this draft.  He isn’t that big body wide receiver that projects to be a prototypical WR1.  Brown is a small, shifty player that will most likely be a burner in the NFL. Brown’s speed and acceleration allowed him to be very productive in college and should allow him to continue producing in the NFL

Unfortunately for Brown, it came out a couple of weeks ago that he had surgery for a Lisfranc injury last month.  Lisfranc is an injury that has to deal with one of the bones in the mid-foot breaking.  Considering guys like Le’Veon Bell and Dwight Freeney have had similar surgeries and continued to improve, this isn’t the end of the world for Brown.  It’s been reported that he should be ready for summer training camp, but this will definitely have an effect on his draft stock.  Let’s just hope there aren’t any complications or lingering issues.

College Production

Before attending Oklahoma, Brown spent a season at College of Canyons, a junior college in California. At College of Canyons, Brown led the team with 50 receptions for 754 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Brown also returned kickoffs and punts, totaling almost 600 yards and another two scores.  Rated as the number 10 junior college player in the country by Rivals, Brown decided to transfer to Oklahoma after one season.

Brown didn’t miss a beat when he got to Oklahoma.  His sophomore season (2017), Brown had 57 receptions for 1,095 yards and 7 touchdowns.  Brown really performed when it mattered by putting up a combined 201 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Big 12 championship and CFP semifinal.  He then followed that up with an even more impressive junior year.  Brown had 75 catches for 1,318 yards and 10 touchdowns.  Brown was named as a First-Team All-American and a First-Team All-Big 12 honoree.

The numbers don’t lie.  Brown produced at a ridiculous level in college, averaging nearly 18.3 yards per reception.  I understand that this was against Big 12 defenses, but this is still impressive.  Brown showed that he has the ability to make big plays from pretty much every part of the field

Speed & Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 5 (Personal Score: 5)

Holy Smokes! Brown is extremely fast.  Brown has a great release at the line of scrimmage and accelerates into his routes very quickly.  If he was running at the combine, he probably would end up running in the low 4.3 range.  The most impressive part of his speed is that he displays it more than just on fly routes.  He’s able to maintain his speed in breaking routes, such as posts and slants, and is a huge threat after the catch on short routes.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

Route Running is extremely difficult to evaluate with speed guys, mainly because the main source of their separation is their speed.  This holds true with Brown.  He is able to create separation at all levels of the field.  He displayed a pretty diverse route tree including 9 routes, posts, comebacks, slants, drags, digs and screens.  He showed subtle footwork and change of direction that proved effective, but again, most of the separation he creates is from his speed.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 2.6 (Personal Score: 3)

For being a small receiver, Brown shows a lot of willingness and aggression when it comes to blocking.  Now, he’s obviously not going to truck a DB and put him on his back, but Brown will definitely engage and try to prevent his guys from becoming part of the play.  Brown does a decent job of positioning himself to help create holes.

Handwork & Positioning: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 3)

Due to his speed, Brown didn’t have to display a ton of handwork and footwork during his routes.  In the games I watched, I only saw him in one contested catch scenario, where he got the ball, but eventually got it punched out.  Brown does a really good job of reading the defense and running his routes to open space.  This allows him to catch the ball in space and have the opportunity to gain yards after the catch.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 4.3 (Personal Score: 4)

Brown is a great athlete.  On top of his speed, Brown shows good agility, explosiveness and body control.  However, because of relying on his speed, Brown rarely uses his agility to break tackles after the catch. I really think if he becomes more comfortable in this area of his game, he will become an even bigger threat at the NFL level.

Conclusion:  2nd Round Target

Draft capital is going to tell me a lot about Brown and this Lisfranc injury.  Once thought to be a possible 1st round pick, Brown has the talent to be a serious contributor at the NFL level.  I will feel a lot more confident in Brown and his health if someone spends a Day 2 pick on him.  If that’s the case, I’d be targeting Brown near the middle of the 2nd round in traditional rookie drafts.  That’s a relatively cheap price for a player that has a ton of upside.  However, if Brown falls to Day 3 of the draft, that tells me that teams are worried about his health, which will probably push Brown down my rankings.

NFL Rookie Mock Draft: Comparing the 2019 Draft Class to 2018 & 2017

This article is a collaboration of 5 dynasty/devy writers for the Fantasy Fanalysts. All of the writers also contribute to the 48 Report.

Follow our writers and us on twitter and let us know what you think of your team’s pick!

We decided to get wild this week for Mock Draft Monday and have conducted a draft where we compare the value of the 2019 draft class to the prospects from the past two draft classes.

For the purposes of this draft, each team drafted snake style and for a SuperFlex & TE premium league. Each roster has 2 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 2 TE, & 2 FLEX spots. Each writer could only draft players from the 2019, 2018, & 2017 draft classes. We provided a round by round breakdown of the picks. You can see the full draft board below:

JoshChrisMikeMattEric
1Saquon
Barkley
Pat
Mahomes
Christian
McCaffery
Alvin
Kamara
Juju
Smith-Schuster
2N’Keal HarryJames
Connor
Joe MixonDerrius
Guice
Deshaun
Watson
3Baker
Mayfield
Kenny
Golladay
Dalvin
Cook
Mitch
Trubisky
Sony
Michel
4Kerryon
Johnson
DK
Metcalf
George
Kittle
Kelvin
Harmon
Lamar
Jackson
5Josh
Rosen
Josh
Allen
Nick
Chubb
Sam
Darnold
Philip
Lindsay
6Courtland
Sutton
Tarik
Cohen
Corey
Davis
Evan
Engram
Noah
Fant
7David
Montgomery
Adam
Shaheen
Mike
Williams
OJ
Howard
Cooper
Kupp
8Leonard
Fournette
Mike
Gesicki
Kyler
Murray
Hakeem
Butler
TJ
Hokenson
9David
Njoku
Chris
Carson
Drew
Lock
Rodney
Anderson
Kareem
Hunt
10Dallas
Goedert
Chris
Godwin
Irv
Smith Jr.
DJ
Moore
Calvin
Ridley

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Round 1: 2019 is Overshadowed by Superstars

1.01- Saquon Barkley

1.02- Pat Mahomes

1.03- Christian McCaffery

1.04- Alvin Kamara

1.05- Juju Smith-Schuster

This can be chalked up to hindsight being 20/20 and an incredibly talented set of draft classes for comparison, but the 2019 prospects were not close to being considered amongst this talented group. Barkley and Mahomes are the clear top picks for most superflex players and McCaffery and Kamara are a pair of high impact and consistent running backs in an otherwise shallow position for fantasy football players. Smith-Schuster is a bit of a surprise pick here, but with Brown likely out of town the very young player has a lot of upside to grow into.


Matt Hicks

Round 2: The First 2019 Prospect Sighting

2.01 – Deshaun Watson

2.02 – Derrius Guice

2.03 – Joe Mixon

2.04 – James Conner

2.05 – N’Keal Harry

I consider Watson the 2nd best QB of the available group behind Pat Mahomes. I may be higher on him than most so I would have been interested to see if he would’ve made it back to me but in a superflex, I decided against the risk.

Guice should slot right in as the Redskins starter but I hope his hype doesn’t get out of control. Mixon had a breakout year and could be primed for an even bigger 2019 with the Bengals making some promising changes to the coaching staff.

Conner is a stud and it was between him, Juju and Watson for me at the turn. I may not have taken him but he will be a major stud again in 2019.

We have our first 2019 rookie off the board with Josh taking N’Keal Harry and I am totally fine with it. After the combine Harry had, you can definitely make the argument he should be the 1.01.


Eric Adams

Round 3: 5 More Players Greater than the 1.01

3.01 – Baker Mayfield

3.02 – Kenny Golladay

3.03 – Dalvin Cook

3.04 – Mitchell Trubisky

3.05 – Sony Michel

This is a very talented group of players!  Being that it is superflex and there isn’t a huge pool of established starters, I am completely fine with Baker going before the likes of Dalvin Cook.  

Golladay and Cook have both shown that they have the talent and ability to produce at the NFL level. Trubisky showed solid production in his first season in Matt Nagy’s offense and with a lot of new offensive playmakers.

Finally, I really liked Michel’s usage and production in the last portion of the season and throughout the playoffs. I fully expect all of these players to continue to develop and live up to their draft position. When comparing these guys to the 2019 rookies, I think I would rather have all of these guys more than the 1.01


Mike Colaianne

Round 4: The Rookie Wide Receivers Emerge

4.01 Lamar Jackson

4.02 Kelvin Harmon

4.03 George Kittle

4.04 DK Metcalf

4.05 Kerryon Johnson

An interesting round in this interesting draft and the first round that the 2019 class starts to get taken.  I jumped on Harry myself much earlier, but this is the right range for guys like Harmon and Metcalf. Both of these guys are going to be starters at the next level and it looks like they will be darn good ones too.  

I was thrilled to steal Kerryon at the end of this 4th round with the 20th overall pick. He is poised to take on the workhorse role in Detroit and finished last year strong as he started to get fed more touches.

This is a little early for Lamar Jackson for my taste, but I understand the allure of the rushing upside (and floor).  Kittle is a big-time value here as each of us is filling out our rosters with 2 tight ends and getting the best tight end available with your 4th pick feels like a steal.


Josh Padgett 

Round 5: (2018) Quarterback Fever

5.01 Josh Rosen

5.02 Josh Allen

5.03 Nick Chubb

5.04 Sam Darnold

5.05 Phillip Lindsay

This round was interesting. It boasted the most QBs of any round with 3/5 picks being Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold and Josh Allen. Each team choosing was drafting that 2nd QB before resources dried up and rightfully so. The only QBs drafted after this point, were the top two rookie QBs: Drew Lock and Kyler Murray. While the rookies coming in are no laughing matter, the established sophomores from the last class would all be drafted before the guys coming in.

This year’s draft is viewed as a weaker class in terms of QBs and maybe (longterm) only a few guys would could be a franchise’s answer. With the 2018 class, every QB taken in the early rounds is seen to be the team’s answer and had the most QBs taken (4) with only Mason Rudolph being left out.  


Christopher Nelson

Round 6: Fant > Engram?

6.01 – Noah Fant

6.02 – Evan Engram

6.03 – Corey Davis

6.04 – Tarik Cohen

6.05 – Courtland Sutton

I went with the upside of Fant over a sure thing in Engram. I think Fant has a chance to enter the elite tier of tight ends in the NFL and I wanted to go with some flash plus I love his game. Matt followed suit by taking Engram and I am fine with it but I still have some concerns over his usage in the Giants’ system.

I literally can’t say any nice things about Corey Davis. I want to like him but he is just too inconsistent. I’m hoping the Titans can get more out of him but he’s at a crossroads at the moment. LOVE Tarik Cohen here in the 6th round. With the Bears reportedly looking to trade Jordan Howard, Cohen could become even more valuable and he flourished in Matt Nagy’s system in 2018.

I need to see more consistency from Sutton. I love his game but he had his rookie struggles. I could see him making a nice year 2 jump but having Flacco as a QB doesn’t exactly make me feel all warm inside.


Eric Adams

Round 7: The First 2019 RB Off the Board

7.01 – David Montgomery

7.02 – Adam Shaheen

7.03 – Mike Williams

7.04 – OJ Howard

7.05 – Cooper Kupp

I was pretty surprised to see so much talent this late in the draft.  David Montgomery is my RB1 in this 2019 class and I probably prefer him over the rest of the guys in this round.  Shaheen seems like a bit of a reach, considering Howard and Njoku were still available, but there is no doubt that Shaheen has potential with his size and athleticism.  

Mike Williams is a huge buy for me this year due to his continued growth and Tyrell Williams being a free agent. I know Bruce Arians hasn’t really used his TEs in the past, but OJ is special and can hop up into the elite tier of TEs as soon as this season.  Coming off a torn ACL, Kupp looks to continue being the Ram’s possession receiver and produce as a low end WR 2.


Mike Colaianne

Round 8: 2019 Showing Up Late

8.01 TJ Hockenson

8.02 Hakeem Butler

8.03 Kyler Murray

8.04 Mike Gesicki

8.05 Leonard Fournette

Hockenson is a steal here in my opinion. As the 6th tight end of the board. Currently, he is a first round rookie pick on my board. With a good situation, he could easily jump Howard, Shaheen, Engram and even Fant who all went above him in this draft. I am not the biggest Butler fan in our crew, but I understand the value here.

This is the right spot for Murray considering the potential and the fact that he should start very early in his NFL career.  Gesicki is a reach with Njoku still on the board, but the upside is great especially if the Dolphins bring in a rookie QB who will need a security blanket. I considered Fournette with both of my 6th and 7th round picks (6.10 and 7.01). Then I watched him fall all the way to the 40th overall pick. I understand the concerns, but the talent is still immense and the offense is geared towards him in a big way.

There is not a quarterback that the Jaguars can go get that would make them lighten the load for Fournette. Will his star burn out quickly? Probably, but it is going to burn real bright until it does.


Josh Padgett 

Round 9: Running Back…to the Future?

9.01 David Njoku

9.02 Chris Carson

9.03 Drew Lock

9.04 Rodney Anderson

9.05 Kareem Hunt

This is a very eclectic group of players. Njoku is a huge value here in a 2 TE/TE premium format, especially with Cleveland’s offense trending in a positive direction. I think Drew Lock deserves to come off the board here and I’m glad he was valued enough to be on a super flex roster.

That leaves 3 running backs, of which I favor the future. Carson had a solid 2018 season, but with Penny looming I wouldn’t have taken him. Hunt has a significant amount of unknown variable (including impending suspension) and I don’t want that baggage on my fantasy football roster-especially at the running back position. I would LOVE to have Anderson, my RB1, on all of my rosters though. He’s explosive, has huge upside, and if he didn’t have an injury history would be far and away the consensus RB1 in this draft class. For once in this draft: I’ll give 2019 the advantage.

Matt Hicks

Round 10: Plenty of Talent Left

10.1 Calvin Ridley

10.2 D.J. Moore

10.3 Irv Smith Jr.

10.4 Chris Godwin

10.5 Dallas Goedert

For it being the last round, there was no grasping at straws. To be honest, there was still a lot of talent left over, but some teams had to fill needs vs grabbing a flex. Besides maybe the tight ends (who generally take a little while to develop), everyone chosen is slated to take a step forward this coming season with pretty good ceilings.

Ridley and Godwin will have to split reps with Evans and Julio but should still continue to see serviceable market share. DJ Moore, on the other hand, could be in for the biggest boost of them all. With Olsen possibly retiring and Funchess moving on, Moore could very well move into WR1 land.  


Christopher Nelson

Pre-Draft Tight End Rankings for the 2019 Draft Class

This article is my personal breakdown of the 2019 tight end draft class pre-draft and specifically from tape review. These rankings relate specifically to how these players will translate to fantasy football.

I’m positive these rankings will change as the NFL Draft process progresses, but this makes for a great starting point. This tight end class is being hailed as much needed infusion of talent in an otherwise desolate wasteland of shallow fantasy football value. There is good reason to believe that hype is true, both at the top and “bottom” of the tight end draft class.

 Let’s talk about them-let me know what you think on twitter!

For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out the 48 Report: our 2019 Rookie Database


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8. Dawson Knox (6’4”, 250), Ole Miss

Knox is an exciting candidate with a high ceiling and an unorthodox route to the NFL Draft. Knox played quarterback in high school and only started one game his senior season before dislocating his ankle. Knox walked on at Ole Miss as a tight end; after a redshirt year and a late growth spurt, he emerged as an extremely athletic weapon in a crowded Ole Miss offense.

In just two seasons as a starter, Knox caught 39 receptions for 605 yards and 0 touchdowns. That may seem impressive, but his career 15.5 yards/reception is eye-popping for a tight end. Knox’s lack of production may be credited to sharing targets with AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and DeMarkus Lodge.

Knox’s tape shows an athletic player with a lot of upside. He’s versatile; lining up as a wing back, in tight, or out wide as a receiver. He can get off the line quickly and find space in the first third of the field. Past that, there’s a lot of concern. He has rounded routes, doesn’t cut quick, and has capped breakaway speed. He showed a lack of diversity in his route tree and is an inconsistent blocker. Knox is fun and worthy of a late-round flyer, but he still has to develop; for now, he’s a taxi squad stash.

7. Kaden Smith (6’5”, 252), Stanford

In a class full of quick, athletic, and pass-catching tight ends Smith is flying under the radar. Smith redshirted his freshmen year for the Cardinal but started 20 games over his sophomore and junior seasons. In those 20 games, he caught 70 balls for 1,049 yards and 7 touchdowns. Smith was a Mackey Award finalist in 2018.

Smith’s blocking will get him drafted in April. He is anaggressive blocker; he seals blocks well on run plays, has a good chip block,finishes blocks through the whistle, and is a solid pass protector although hewasn’t often asked to. Blocking, however, doesn’t put up fantasy footballpoints.

Smith won’t blow anyone away with his 40 time, but he has quick burst. Smith has a limited route tree but can work a nice slant route and run seams into the second level. He positions his body well and creates separation when fighting for contested passes. He has a large frame and is athletic enough to go up and snag off-target passes. Smith’s blocking ability will get him on an NFL roster and some significant play time within the first few years of his career. Tight ends, though, take a while to translate for fantasy football purposes and you may be waiting a while for Smith to produce.

Still, he’s a safer bet and worth stashing as a late-round flyer in rookie fantasy football drafts.

6. Isaac Nauta (6’4”, 240), Georgia

Nauta is a former IMG two-sport athlete; his success on the football field and basketball court contributed to him being a 5-star recruit and top 10 overall recruit in most major rankings. He chose the Bulldogs over Alabama and Michigan. Nauta started 33 games over 3 seasons in Athens; catching 68 balls for 905 yards (13.3 yards/reception) and 8 touchdowns in a run-heavy offense.

Nauta reminds me of a slow wide receiver, and I mean that inthe best way. Nauta gets to the second level quickly and can outrun SEClinebackers. He doesn’t have the most developed route tree, but he is effectivewhen running drags, outs, seams, and slants. He can contribute nicely in aspread or air raid offense. He has soft hands and finds space over the middleof the field but needs to improve on positioning his large frame to box outdefenders. Nauta is a yards after catch (YAC) threat; he can make defendersmiss in space but his athleticism is limited when it comes to his vertical.

Nauta has to develop as a blocker and consistent passcatcher but he has the athletic upside to be a fantasy football steal. Heshould be available in the 3rd or later rounds of your rookie draftsand is worth stashing; especially if he finds himself in a high-poweredoffense.

5. Dax Raymond (6’5”,250), Utah State

Dax Raymond is one of my favorite sleeper picks in this draft class. In two seasons of significant playtime for the Aggies he caught 68 balls for 801 yards and 3 touchdowns. In 2018 he had 7 multi-catch games, 4 games with more than 50 receiving yards, and an impressive 7 catches for 76 yards against Michigan State.

Raymond’s tape, however, jumps out much more than his stats.He gets off the line of scrimmage like a wide receiver and can be dangerous inthe first or second level of the field. He has great hands and snags everythingthrown his way; he uses his large frame well to pull in off-the-mark passes. Hecan run a mean slant, and a solid seam route. Beyond that, though, his routetree is limited.

Raymond is a seriously high motor blocker and consistentlyoverwhelmed Mountain West defenders on while run blocking-on multiple occasionshe drove defenders off the field and into the bench area. He is very athleticand has an impressive high point for a player of his size. Raymond has cappedbreakaway speed, and won’t scare defenses like OJ Howard, but he has Engram-likeathleticism and that’s very appealing to me; especially with the way NFLoffenses are trending.

Raymond is flying under the radar, going in the 4thround of rookie mocks at best, and I’ll be using that to my advantage whilestockpiling shares of him this offseason.

4. Jace Sternberger(6’4”, 250), Texas A&M

Sternberger started his collegiate career at Kansas but was underutilized and chose to transfer to a junior college. Sternberger balled out in his season Northeastern Oklahoma A&M; catching 21 balls for 336 yards and 6 touchdowns. After his breakout, Sternberger chose to play for the Aggies over teams like Boise State and UCF. In 2018, he put up a monster season: catching 48 balls for 832 yards and 10 (yes 10) touchdowns. He finished 9th in receiving yards and 4th in receiving touchdowns in the SEC and received consensus All-America honors.

Sternberger’s route running stands out to me. He has aneffective curl route, good seam routes, and can run drags over the middle. He’squick off the line of scrimmage, has good footwork, and uses his size verywell. Sternberger is particularly effective within the first 10 yards off theline of scrimmage but has the potential to make big plays downfield. He is asolid pass protector and an aggressive run blocker; often sealing edges welland opens up nice gaps for Trayveon Williams (2018 SEC rushing leader) to movethrough.

His strength and balance help him fight off defenders afterthe catch. He won’t be burning defensive backs in the NFL but he has good speedthat can get him to the second level. He has soft hands and is able to react topasses and adjust his body in midair. He may not be considered in the “big 3”tight ends of this draft class, but Sternberger deserves to be in theconversation and is far and away my TE4.  

3. TJ Hockenson (6’5”,250) Iowa

Surprised to see Hockenson ranked at 3? Yeah, me too. It’s close, though, and it should not lead you to think I’m not impressed with this monster of an NFL prospect. In just two seasons playing at Iowa Hockenson compiled 1,080 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns on 73 receptions. 49 of those receptions, along with 760 yards and 6 touchdowns came in 2018-his redshirt sophomore season. In 2018 he finished 8th in receiving yards in the Big Ten and won the John Mackey Award. He caught at least 4 passes in 6 of his 13 games, put up more than 75 receiving yards three times, and had 2 multi-touchdown games.

Hockenson has great hands that allow him to create separationat this line of scrimmage and get move past linebackers to subtly sneak intothe second level of the field. He can be effective downfield on outs and seamroutes. He has great hands and positions his body well when going up for acontested pass; consistently forcing defensive backs into defensive pass interferencecalls. His blocking ability, though, is what is driving up his NFL Draft stock.He drives Big 10 defenders off the line and finishes blocks strong. He is extremelyeffective when pass blocking; he has both the strength and the mobility to keephis quarterback clean. Hockenson, along with the other members of this years “big3” tight ends bring the type of potential fantasy football players have beendreaming of at this otherwise bleak position.

Hockenson is being favored by many to be the first tight endto come off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft. I don’t doubt that, however, Ibelieve it’s because he’s a better blocker than the two tight ends I’m about todiscuss. I am not letting that element of his game boost his fantasy stockabove the two players I considered to be “freak-athlete” level. I’d still bethrilled to get him on my fantasy football rosters, but if I have my choice, I’mtaking Smith and Fant over Hockenson at this point.

2. Irv Smith Jr. (6’4”, 240), Alabama

Irv Smith Jr., son of former NFL tight end Irv Smith, caught44 receptions for 710 yards (16.1 yards/carry) and 7 touchdowns in his junioryear at Alabama. Smith had a dominator rating of 14.6%; a number I consider impressivein the context of his position and the explosive Crimson Tide offense. 45% ofhis receptions came on plays of 8-20 yards, and 25% of his receptions came onplays where he gained more than 20 yards. 5 of his 7 touchdowns were on gainsof at least 9 yards.

Smith’s speed and athleticism is what draws me in. He bursts off the line of scrimmage and can accelerate very well for a man of his size. He consistently pushes past linebackers and dominates the second level of the field. His route tree is not as developed as I’d like but he consistently finds himself in open space and is able to make plays after the catch. He has good body positioning and consistent hands. He can cut like a wide receiver, juke like a running back, and break the ankles of a defender like a point guard. He is a solid pass blocker and finishes run blocks nicely. I think he has room to develop his blocking, but not enough to keep him off the field.

I realize I’m higher on Smith than most, he’s consistently going 6-10 picks later than Hockenson in rookie mock drafts, but his athleticism and pass-catching ability give up a high ceiling. Landing spot will ultimately be the tiebreaker for him, Hockenson, and Fant but for now, he’s an exciting TE2.

1. Noah Fant (6’5”, 240), Iowa

Fant has two seasons of consistent production for theHawkeyes. In his sophomore season (2017) he caught 30 balls for 494 yards (16.5yards/reception) and 11 touchdowns. That season drew many to Fant and labeledhim as the front runner TE1 in this draft class. Fant performed well in hisjunior season (2018) as well. He pulled in 39 receptions for 519 yards (13.3yards/carry) and 7 touchdowns. Fant led the Big 10 in receiving touchdowns in 2017and finished 9th in 2018.

Fant will be a big play threat in the NFL. He is very quick offthe line of scrimmage and does have the speed to burn down the field. He worksa mean seam route and has a dangerous out route; both of which allow him to makecatches in the second level. He is a great underneath option too; he has tremendousfootwork that baits defenders into backing off him while he turns on comebackroutes. Fant isn’t afraid to run a straight 9 route either. When he does, hesells it well with subtle but effective body movements that allow him to be athreat in the third level of the field. Fant has great hands that allow him tocatch contested balls and layout for wild passes he has no business putting afinger on. He has a great high point; allowing him to outjump defensive backsand snag jump balls.

Fant is a solid blocker but definitely needs to develop at the next level. He holds his ground well in pass protection but defenders consistently get off the snap quicker than him and stand him up. He often gets caught blocking on the back shoulder and doesn’t hold blocks for the entire play. This is enough to make him the TE2 for NFL GMs but Fant is still clearly the TE1 when it comes to fantasy football.

DFS in Review: Perfect DraftKings Lineup Wide Reciever Trends

Part 3 of the series reviews a wide receiver position that rebounded from a real life and fantasy perspective from 2017.  As a whole, wide receiver receptions, yards, and touchdowns saw sizable increases in 2018.  Also notable, wide receiver rushing attempts and rushing yards had substantial bumps from the prior year.

As you will discover from this piece, the position can be a roller coaster to evaluate each week.  44 different receivers made the perfect lineup out of a possible 55 occurrences.  Compared to the running back and tight end positions that saw 62% and 64% of its respective slots represented by different players, 80% for wide receivers shouldn’t be too surprising.  Especially when you consider there are at least two reliable receivers on most teams vs a single bell cow back or tight end that is heavily relied upon.

Some of these receiver trends aren’t as concrete as those that were presented in the previous two articles of the series regarding the quarterback and running back positions.  The wide receiver position displays more variables that show the fickle nature of the position.  At times, these variables can make it feel rather unpredictable as the trend below and others discussed in this article will illustrate.

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THE PERFECT WIDE RECEIVERS COMBINED FOR A RECORD OF 29-24-2

Tyreek Hill was the WR1 in Week 10 in a win that he did nearly all of his damage when the game was still within reach for the Cardinals.  In opposite fashion, Taylor Gabriel caught two touchdown passes in what already a rout against the Buccaneers.  Remaining cognizant to how coaches and coordinators approach and utilize their passing games in positive gamescript can be critical when a game gets out of hand.  Some may like to keep the foot on the gas while others may be content running the ball and draining clock. 

Negative gamescript can move one from six DK points and WR63 for the week and boost him all the way up to 23 DK points and WR8 on a deep throw in hopes of a late rally.  Of the 50 perfect receivers that did score a touchdown in their respective games, 30 of them did so when their team was trailing.  This isn’t breaking news but sometimes, a reminder of the obvious can be a cure for the overthinking that is possible on a week-to-week basis.  In this case, rostering receivers that are expected to be in a close game or playing from behind.

Defenses that possess a strong competency in stopping the run may be more targeted via the wide receiver.  Take the Saints as they surrendered the fourth fewest FPA to running backs but hemorrhaged the most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers.  These stout rushing defenses can funnel additional passing attempts and create more opportunity for damage through the air, especially when the secondary is a porous one.  The Saints allowed four perfect receivers with their inability to contain the position.

As evidenced, a lot goes into deciding which receiver to choose.  Where the perfect running backs show a positive correlation towards winning their respective games, it’s nearly a 50/50 proposition with their wide receiving counterparts.  Of course, none of this matters if there isn’t opportunity to make a difference on the field.

THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF RECEPTIONS PER GAME FOR THE WIDE RECEIVERS WAS 7.96 

Targets are fantasy gold that create opportunities for wide receivers to produce.  Without them, that receiver serves no purpose in lineups, especially when running backs are seeing increased touches and roles in the offense.  With the limited amount of opportunities they have each week, it is critical for receivers to capitalize on those balls thrown to them.  

For those that achieved perfection, the average number of receptions per game was 7.96 off 10.23 targets.  Michael Thomas saw a perfect lineup ceiling of 16 receptions in Week 1 while Tyrell Williams needed as few as three of them to do his damage.  Of course, Tyrell needed more than three receptions for 118 yards to get on that list by scoring two touchdowns on the day.  It’s no surprise that 50 of the 55 wide receivers on the list posted at least one touchdown. 

35 OF THE 55 WIDE RECEIVERS WERE PRICED AT $6000 OR LOWER

Considering 21 of the 34 perfect running backs, not including flex options, we’re priced over $7000, inexpensive wide receivers needed to be rostered and were available each week.  In fact, at least one perfect wide receiver was priced as low as $5000 in all but one main slate in 2018; Week 2 was the only week that featured all receivers over $6000.  

Needless to say, a wide receiver under $6000 won’t land a team’s #1 option in most cases.  However, a team’s second or third made the perfect lineup in 15 of 17 weeks as 44 different receivers made the list.  Targeting susceptible cornerbacks comes into play in identifying those cheap receivers that have favorable matchups.  P.J. Williams, M.J. Stewart, and Jalen Mills were just some of the corners that were weekly targets in the 2018 DFS landscape.  One secondary fell victim to more perfect receivers than the other 31 teams and resides in a division with strong quarterbacks and receiving corps.

CAROLINA ALLOWED SEVEN PERFECT WIDE RECEIVERS

In one corner sits Matt Ryan with his lethal perimeter receivers in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.  In another contains the surgical duo of Drew Brees and Michael Thomas.  Don’t forget about Jameis Winston and his trio of talented receivers in Mike Evans, Adam Humphries, and Chris Godwin; it remains to be seen if DeSean Jackson returns in 2019.  That’s a tall order of firepower for any secondary to endure in 6 of 16 games.  

The damage inflicted upon a Panther secondary that was in the top 5 in FPA to perimeter receivers wasn’t just limited to divisional foes.  Kenny Golladay got the best of them at one point as well as a pair of Seattle receivers in David Moore and Tyler Lockett that both posted 100+ receiving yard games en route to the perfect lineup.  Odell Beckham Jr. threw a touchdown pass on top of the carnage he created opposite James Bradberry and Donte Jackson.

Carolina’s 2019 schedule outside of divisional play features some tough perimeter receiver matchups to include Davante Adams, T.Y. Hilton, DeAndre Hopkins, the Rams duo of Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods, and the aforementioned Tyler Lockett.  For what has been an Achilles heel for this defense the last two years, the Panthers need Jackson to continue to develop as he enters his second year in the league and Bradberry to shut down opposing receivers not just named Mike Evans.

CONCLUSION

DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown were the only two receivers to eclipse 300 fantasy points in PPR scoring in 2017, the fewest receivers to hit that benchmark since 2012 when Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall were the only two to do so.  In 2018, five other receivers joined Brown and Hopkins in this club, reiterating the aerial revolution that is sweeping the NFL.

As long as this pass-first mentality continues, the state of the wide receiver shouldn’t bottom out as it did in 2017 and maintain its current upward trend.  Even with the running backs more involved in the passing game, the current household names at the receiver along with the ascension of some younger stars projects a bright outlook for the position for the next few years.

DK Metcalf: 4 Star Prospect & the 1.01?

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full database of 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer. All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

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DeKaylin Metcalf (6’4″, 225), Wide Receiver, Ole Miss           

18.6 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

Until writing this article, I had no idea what “D.K.” stood for until now. DeKaylin Metcalf is a prospect with NFL blood lines; his dad, uncle and grandfather all played in the NFL. Amazing athlete with an amazing name, “D.K.” has stolen the hearts of many since he entered the college football realm. I remember seeing pictures of this man-child who would play for Ole Miss and thought, “Oh man, this kid is going to be a problem!”

College Production: 

Unfortunately, he hasn’t had the biggest opportunity to set the college world on fire because of 2 season-ending injuries (one in his freshman year and one as a red-shirt sophomore). It gives me somewhat of a “cause to pause”, but given they aren’t persistent nagging injuries (like Emanuel Hall’s groin/hamstring issues), I cannot dock him too much for it. However, this type of injury history is something to keep an eye on.

Another reason he was stymied, was due to the fact that he played with an offense full of NFL talent in Scottie Phillips, AJ Brown, Demarkus Lodge and Dawson Knox. A lot of mouths to feed in Ole Miss, but he made the most of it.

Speed/Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 3)

This aspect of his game just reminds me of many guys his size: fast for his size but not necessarily blistering fast overall. The combine may change my thought process on that, but I just didn’t see the same speed that even his fellow “NWo” (Nasty-Wideouts) teammates have. I see him running 4.5-7 but being more of a game speed guy.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 2)

This is one part of his game that I’m willing to be flexible with. There’s a lot of reports that their offensive scheme as a whole was a big time joke and lacked complexity. Because of this, we never saw him run anything outside of a bunch of go routes with a few curls or corner routes with go options. I still can’t give him much of a score here either because he didn’t excel off the line like he could have even with a simple route being ran all the time.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

Average at best. He didn’t do it a whole lot and wasn’t asked to. AJ Brown was their blocker supreme who used his size to lay dudes out. The odd part is he weighed the same amount as Metcalf, but Metcalf wasn’t really about blocking too much. To be fair, that’s OK, it won’t be a make or break like it would be with a running back.

Handwork/Positioning: Aggregate Score: 4.3 (Personal Score: 3)

Again, something that isn’t heavily in his game although he has the skill to get way better here. I’ve watched way to many receivers to give him a pass here. This isn’t scheme dependent, it’s player. When it came to utilizing receiver skill, he just seems unrefined.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 4.6 (Personal Score: 4)                                                                                                    

My favorite part of his game is his athleticism and he made sure to put it on display every chance he got. Where I think he lacks in pure electric speed, he makes up for it in spades here. Check out this JustBombsProductions tweet that really embodies what Metcalf is as a receiver.

Conclusion: First Round, Picks 1-3

I have him as my WR3 because of his raw ability/lack of refinement and injury history or otherwise he might be my 1.01. No matter how high I’m not on him, there’s no doubt that this kid is special and will fly off draft boards depending on who you play with. The only consensus that I’ve seen and also agree with, is that he’s top 3. If he falls below that I think he’ll be immediately deemed a steal.

Mike Weber: 3 Star Fantasy Prospect

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

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Mike Weber (5’10”, 214) Running Back, Ohio State

14.3 Aggregate Score (3 Star Prospect)

Mike Weber is not the most exciting player in this class. He is fairly average across the board, but he performs well enough in all the necessary facets of the game. Earning an aggregate score of 14.3 from our rankers and not a single 4 in any category from any of us does not inspire a great deal of confidence in Weber. Draft capital will tell a lot about how the NFL views Weber and will truly determine whether or not he is worthy of a roster spot in fantasy.

College Production

Weber has had an interesting college career.  He was very good during his redshirt freshman year in 2016, finishing the year with almost 1100 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground. A big boost to these numbers came in the form of 23 receptions out of the backfield. About 2 catches a game isn’t super special, but as a redshirt freshman, that is plenty to show capable hands. Weber regressed some as JK Dobbins burst onto the scene as a freshman in 2017.  With his touches cut almost in half, the 6+ yards per carry efficiency remained, but the overall numbers dipped significantly. In 2018, he turned in a statline similar to his freshman year. However, with similar opportunity, you would hope for some improvement on those numbers. Weber is the lesser talent in the Ohio State backfield and that has become very clear as the touches shifted to Dobbins.

Speed & Agility: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

Weber looks fine behind a beefy Ohio State offensive line, but I don’t expect him to experience the same success at the NFL level. I expect the combine numbers to be lackluster especially in the 40 and 3 cone drill. He doesn’t show a whole lot of breakaway speed or great change of direction.

Receiving Ability: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

While Weber hauled in over 20 receptions in both his redshirt freshman and junior seasons, he was not efficient once the ball was in his hands. Averaging less yards per reception than yards per carry in both years is an interesting stat to say the least. On the plus side, Ohio State trusted him enough to get him involved in the passing game. However, he was not very productive with the targets he received.

Vision: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

This is another chance to mention a rock solid Ohio State offensive line. Weber is not bad in this category, but a lot of his efficiency can be explained by the play of the big boys up front. Not often able to make something out of nothing, but consistently able to take what is given to him.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 2.6 (Personal Score: 3)

You may be sensing a theme here.  Weber can block, yes, but he is just alright at it. Usually able to find his assignment and solid at chipping to help his linemen, he did struggle against unhindered blitzers as almost any running back will.

Strength: Aggregate Score: 2.6 (Personal Score: 3)

This is one my favorite aspects of Weber’s game, when it shines through. He shows great contact balance when he runs angry and he finishes runs in a big way.  The problem is this only seems to happen when he is involved in the game and can get fired up. I don’t see many opportunities to get involved that heavily in the NFL.

Conclusion: 4th Round Flier

The problem I have with Weber is that he has nothing to hang his hat on. He is fine, solid, sometimes good at almost every aspect of the game, but he doesn’t have game breaking speed or strength. He doesn’t demand receiving work. He doesn’t show the consistency you need to see from someone who doesn’t have a high ceiling. I expect solid numbers at the combine which will keep him on NFL draft boards, but I don’t expect a long career or much fantasy relevance.

Hakeem Butler: the Underrated 4 Star Prospect

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full database of 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer. All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

Hakeem Butler (6’6″, 225), Wide Receiver, Iowa State           

21 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

Hakeem Butler is one of my favorite top tier receivers. I probably have him higher than most at the moment. He’s the best receiver in this class at his size. With him having a 6’6 frame, he’s bigger than most tight ends and definitely receivers.

This caused me to look at those who may have come before him to see what kind of success bigger receivers had and there hasn’t been many. Since 1989 (last 30 years), only 10 receivers his height or taller have managed game time of any sort. The most successful was QB convert Matt Jones with a season of 54 receptions on 107 targets for 761 yards and 2 TDs. The next best and most recent were Brandon Coleman and Tanner McEvoy. Coleman was waived from the Saints practice squad in 2018 and McEvoy was waived January of this year by the Bills.

The biggest difference between all these guys and Butler is that he’s had a much more productive career thus far and has a chance to be the best 6’6 non-TE the NFL has ever seen.


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College Production: 

RECYDsYard/CatchTD
2017 (Junior)4169717.07
2018 (Senior)601,31822.09

When you look at his statistics from his junior year, his yards and yards per catch standout. Considering he was on the middle to low end of receptions, he did very well for what he caught.

When you watch his tape you can absolutely see why. It also helps that he was in a respectable offense with a running back that will more than likely go in the top 6: David Montgomery. Butler definitely made them pay for having to respect Montgomery and his greatness from the backfield.

Speed/Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 4)

I’m higher on Butler than the other raters but I think it’s warranted. He’s not a gazelle no, but he moves very fast and has some great acceleration both in his routes and after the catch. I think it played a huge part in his YPC being so high.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 4.6 (Personal Score: 5)

He has a great two-point stance & is smooth on his routes. From the tape I watched, he looks to be able to run the whole tree and that from each receiver position on the field. Iowa State definitely used him correctly and seemed to have gotten the most out of him.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 2)

I’m a lot lower in this aspect because I didn’t see the desire to block from him nor the scheme to have him as a blocking receiver. Nothing so bad that it will hurt his stock and it can be improved if necessary.

Handwork/Positioning: Aggregate Score: 5 (Personal Score: 5)

We all agree that this kid has the ability to use his hands and it’s not his catching (although he’s good at that too); it’s his hand-fighting.

He’s so deceptive that you might even miss the moves he uses to create such great separation. He probably uses this trait more in tandem with his other abilities than any other prospect in this draft and that’s exactly what I love about him.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 4.6 (Personal Score: 4)                                                                                                    

The way he catches the ball is like artwork. He utilizes his size and frame to make things happen that solidify him in the top tier of receivers this draft. He also has some ups that make jump balls ridiculous for a defensive back (usually between 5’9-6’2) to even imagine going up and fighting for.

Conclusion: Top 5 pick

There should be no way he slides outside of the top 5 and I won’t have it any other way. If he falls to me outside of there, I will rejoice! My thing is really what NFL teams decide to do with him. I really hope they keep him as a mismatch wideout vs making him shift to tight end. It would be a shame. He’s way better at moving around the field and being a super mobile big-bodied weapon. He’s what some people wish JJ Arcega-Whiteside could be. Hakeem Butler is the real deal!

NFL Mock Draft 4.0

Welcome to part four of our NFL Mock Draft article series. This article is a collaboration of 5 dynasty/devy writers for the Fantasy Fanalysts. All of the writers also contribute to the 48 Report.

We’re heading full steam ahead into the NFL Draft Combine. To celebrate we dug in two rounds deep into this mock draft!

You can see who we sent to your team in our first mock draft here

Follow our writers and us on twitter and let us know what you think of your team’s pick!


DRAFT is a fun, non-intimidating way to play DFS year round! They have 2019 Best Balls running already, & daily NBA contests. Get a free entry by using promo code “Top2” with your first deposit.

Note: our writers made a lot of trades, some of which are explicitly stated, some of which are not. If a pick is labeled “via” that means there was a trade made by our writers. If it is labeled as “from” it is a trade that reflects an NFL transaction.

1. Arizona Cardinals: Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State

As clear cut as it comes at the moment. The Cardinals need a needle mover on defense and potential star power for the future, Bosa is that player. Easy pick to start the draft.

Christopher Nelson

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (via SF): Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State

Jacksonville needs to figure out the QB position.  They have a defense that has shown to be super bowl caliber, but they have been held down by a lackluster offense.  I’m not sure if Haskins is the answer, but it is worth a shot.

Mike Colaianne

3. New York Jets: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama

It’s tempting for the Jets to react to an early trade and take Quinnen Williams here. The Jets, though, need to focus on protecting their franchise quarterback and the investment they made last season.

Matt Hicks

4. Tennessee Titans (via Oakland Raiders): Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama

The Titans move up to grab a player they feel could have gone 1.01. Pairing Williams with Jurell Casey will give this team a much needed boost in the pass rushing department.

Josh Padgett

5. Miami Dolphins (via Tampa Bay Buccaneers): Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma

Whether you like it or not, Kyler Murray is the most intriguing prospect in the draft class. Miami is in desperate need for star-level talent and their new coaching staff could absolutely make a splash by moving up to 6 to get in front of the Giants.

Matt Hicks

6.  New York Giants: Cody Ford, OT, Oklahoma

Word on the street is that the Giants are gonna rock and roll with Manning one more year, so why not draft him some protection? Ford is for sure a top three talent at the position and is a great pick up to help shore up that horrible offensive line in New York. At the very least, Eli should be on his back a lot less and it’s setting up your QB of the future (whomever that may be) for success.

Christopher Nelson

7. San Francisco 49ers (via JAX): DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

San Francisco has a lot of options here.  While acquiring an additional 2nd round pick, they take this opportunity to grab a receiver that has all the tools to be a dominant WR 1.  Combined with Goodwin, Pettis, Kittle and a healthy Jimmy G., DK can help turn this offense into the one Kyle Shanahan envisioned when he took this job.  

Mike Colaianne

8. Detroit Lions: Josh Allen EDGE, Kentucky

Detroit has to be thrilled to get this dual threat edge rusher with the 8th pick. Allen can penetrate backfields (21.5 tackles for a loss in 2018) and contribute to an already solid run defense. I know tight end is becoming a popular pick for Detroit, but EDGE is a greater need and the TE position is deep this year.

Matt Hicks

9. Atlanta Falcons (via Buffalo Bills): Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

Atlanta keeps adding elite talent to this young defense. Oliver is an upgrade over Brady Jarrett and if they can keep Jarrett around, that will just be the cherry on top.

Josh Padgett

10. Denver Broncos: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU

If Denver wants to get back to their elite defensive days, then they’ll have to get Greedy. Greedy Williams paired with Chris Harris Jr. along with a very formidable Denver pass rush would be a unit to watch in 2019

Eric Adams

11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin White, LB, LSU

This pick should absolutely be a linebacker here regardless of who is available and the Bengals need an infusion of youth/skill into their LB room. Devin White has the explosiveness/skill to contribute from the jump and I imagine him being able to start relatively quickly.

Christopher Nelson

12. Green Bay Packers: Brian Burns, EDGE, FSU

Burns is a versatile player that has all the tools to be a dynamic playmaker in the NFL.  Not only can he rush the passer, but Burns can also help in the run game. Burns will be able to start contributing right away for the Packers.  

Mike Colaianne

13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Miami): Clelin Ferrell, DL, Clemson

The Bucs have a hole just about everywhere. They need stars, Clelin Ferrell is that. This is a best player available draft for the Bucs more so than any other team

Eric Adams

14. Buffalo Bills (via Atlanta): Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State

While Metcalf might be the flashier prospect, Harmon would be perfect for the Bills. He’s the solid route runner/hands type of receiver that Josh Allen will love.

Eric Adams

15. Salt Lake Stallions*: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri

Salt Lake has had a tough start to their season so they need a new infusion of talent at QB. Drew Lock can start right away but he better be weary of the QBs that are currently getting shellacked in the AAF.

Eric Adams

*Inside joke, see: Mock Draft 1

16. Carolina Panthers: Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida

Carolina needs some help on the EDGE so, they took the best available in Jachai Polite. He not only brings great technique from the outside, but he also brings a brand of aggressiveness that is specific to his play style. High pass rush grade and win percentage, Polite will be more than serviceable for the Panthers for years to come.

Christopher Nelson

17. Cleveland Browns: Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State

For the first time in years, Cleveland is in a great situation.  It seems they have found their QB, they have some nice weapons on offense and they have young talent on defense.  Now it is their job to make sure Mayfield stays protected and healthy. Risner is a versatile player that can play outside at tackle or move inside and play guard.  Either way, he looks ready to start right away and is extremely solid in both the run and pass game.

Mike Colaianne

18. Minnesota Vikings: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida

The Vikings are in desperate need of reinforcement on their offensive line. Taylor can plug in on either side of the line and protect Cousins. Taylor’s film is impressive, and I’d be surprised if he falls this far, but the Vikings would be thrilled if he does.

Matt Hicks

19. Oakland Raiders (via Tennessee Titans): Byron Murphy, CB, Washington

Murphy could be a top 10 player on many boards after the combine. He is poised to put up some nice speed and agility numbers and if he has added the weight he says he has, he will easily be the best player available at this spot.

Josh Padgett

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan

While CB is another big need, the Steelers have not been the same since Ryan Shazier suffered a terrible spinal chord injury. He was the leader of the defense and that unit as a whole has been in a rut for far too long. Enter Devin Bush who will command the middle for years to come.

Eric Adams

21. Seattle Seahawks: Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

With Jimmy Graham gone and the tight end corps more blocking than pass catching, Hakeem Butler is a perfect fit here. He gives DangeRuss that big option they had in Graham to round out a dangerous offense. Great with his handwork, routes from each receiver position and athletic, Butler will start on this offense very easily.

Christopher Nelson

22.Oakland Raiders (via BAL): N’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State

The Raiders are making moves! After Butler was taken, there seems to be one guy left before there is a tier drop off.  Harry dominated college and is expected to test well at the combine. Harry has serious upside with his ability to go up and get the ball and to produce after the catch.  Carr should be leaping for joy if this pick happens.

Mike Colaianne

23. Houston Texans: Chris Lindstrom, iOL, Boston College

It is hard to consider any position other than offensive line for the Texans. They missed out on an early tackle run but snag the best interior offensive linemen in the draft with Lindstrom. Watson was consistently running for his life last year, Lindstrom will help protect their franchise quarterback.

24. Oakland Raiders (From Chicago Bears): Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

Best player available is the strategy for the Raiders in this draft. Wilkins is a polished player who can contribute against the run and the pass from Day 1. Already a force in the middle, Wilkins will be a backfield disrupter and could become a player you need to double.

Josh Padgett

25. Philadelphia Eagles: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama

We’re at the point where nobody is agreeing on who the RB1 is. I don’t even know if Jacobs is my RB1 but the Eagles should have their pick of the RBs. They go Jacobs here.

Eric Adams

26. Indianapolis Colts: DeAndre Baker, CB, Georgia

The Colts are in big time need of a stopgap in their secondary and Baker should definitely do the trick. He has experience playing all three CB spots and is a top 3 prospect at the position. The Colts contemplated a wide receiver here, but there’s a lot of gold still left in this draft to pair with TY Hilton, Ebron, Reece Fountain and Deon Cain..

Christopher Nelson

27. New England (via BAL(via OAK(fromDAL))): T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa

Even if Rob Gronkowski comes back next season, New England needs to find their future replacement for when Gronk is injured or whenever he does retire.  Hockenson is ready to start from Day 1. He is a very good blocker, has very reliable hands and is a threat after the catch. I definitely see New England being aggressive if Hockenson is available this late in the 1st round.  

Mike Colaianne

28. New York Giants (via LAC): Daniel Jones, QB, Duke

Sorry Matt! Although I do agree with the notion that the Giants shouldn’t take a QB at 6, they still do need to figure out the QB position.  Eli has maybe another year and they didn’t even give Kyle Lauletta a shot last year. The Giants best move is to trade back into the 1st and take Daniel Jones so that they can get that 5th year option.

 Jones has the ideal size, is extremely athletic and displays good arm talent. I wish he was more accurate, but having OBJ, Saquan, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard will help mask those issues.

Mike Colaianne

29. Kansas City Chiefs: Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

The Chiefs defense could not win them games last year. Despite having solid pass rushers, they continue to add at the most important defensive position to keep pressure on opposing QB’s as Justin Houston gets older.

Josh Padgett

30. Green Bay Packers (from NO): Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

The QB here needs all the help he can get. Fant, while not landing in a good spot for tight ends historically, could take the GB passing game to the next level.

Eric Adams

31. Los Angeles Rams: Nasir Adderly, S, Delaware

The Rams get a young infusion of talent to replace the big money they spent on the secondary last offseason. Adderly from FCS Delaware is flying under the radar for now, but he needs to be considered at the top of this secondary class.

Matt Hicks

32. Baltimore Ravens (via NE): AJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss

While trading down and acquiring the NE 2nd rounder, the Ravens still find themselves in position to add an extremely talented receiver to their offense.  Brown had two 1,000 yard season while at Ole Miss, mainly producing from the slot. Brown does a great job of getting open in the short/intermediate part of the field, which should definitely help out Lamar Jackson.  

Mike Colaianne

33. Arizona Cardinals: Yodney Cajuste, OT, West Virginia

Arizona benefits from a deep tackle class by getting Cajuste early in the 2nd round. The Cardinals need to provide more time for their pocket bound quarterback to work. Cajuste is also a run blocking presence and will help open up lanes for David Johnson to work through.

Matt Hicks

34. Indianapolis Colts (From New York Jets): Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan

Gary is a high ceiling pass rusher who can play inside or outside on the defensive line. The Colts could really use his ability to shift all across the line and play matchups as they have had significant struggles getting to the passer.

Josh Padgett

35. Oakland Raiders: Deebo Samuel, WR, South Carolina

Oakland needs a full fledged attitude change this year. Enter Deebo Samuel who will bring attitude and toughness to a receiving group that earlier already added N’Keal Harry.

Eric Adams

36. San Francisco 49ers: Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama

Deionte Thompson is a high ceiling, athletic safety that the 49ers just couldn’t pass up at this spot. With their current options less than savory, and having already picked one of the top receivers, Thompson (a top option in his own right) would be a welcomed addition to the 49ers safety group, a position of need.

Christopher Nelson

37. Los Angeles Chargers: Dexter Lawrence, iDL, Clemson

Trading back worked well for the Chargers here; they get extra picks and fill a major need. Lawrence (6’4”, 340) is a huge plug in the middle of the defensive line that will be a terrific compliment to the terrifying EDGE rushers they have.

Matt Hicks

38. San Francisco 49ers: Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss

With the pick they gained from trading back in the 1st round, the 49ers help protect their franchise quarterback. 49ers are working this draft hard now with help at the wide receiver, offensive line, and defensive back positions.

Matt Hicks

39. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

Montgomery is the best running back in this class. It works out nicely that he is also the safest. The organization having possibly whiffed on Ronald Jones last year doesn’t keep new head coach Bruce Arians from finding his new bellcow back.

40. Buffalo Bills: Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma

LeSean McCoy could be on the downtick in Buffalo so it may be time to take a successor. Anderson is a big physical runner who, if not for injury concerns, could be the RB1.

Eric Adams

41. Denver Broncos: Dawson Knox, TE, Ole Miss

A lot may view this as a big ol’ stretch (deep class) and blasphemy because he was chosen before guys like Irv Smith, Isaac Nauta and Kaden Smith, not I. Dawson Knox is right where he needs to be as a guy who had a lot of success in both the run and pass block schemes at Ole Miss. He’s NFL ready and even if his receiving needs work, he’ll fare just fine from day one in a position of need for the Broncos.

Christopher Nelson

42. Cincinnati Bengals: Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama

Cincinnati has had a huge hole at tight end the last 4 or 5 years due to Tyler Eifert being constantly injured and having no secure backup.  Now that Eifert and Kroft are free agents, the Bengals are forced to address the tight end position and take Irv Smith here. Smith is very athletic, is a capable blocker and will be able to contribute in the passing game right away

Mike Colaianne

43. Detroit Lions: Isaac Nauta, TE, Georgia

I mentioned earlier that tight end to Detroit is fan favorite, that may not make sense in the 1st round but Nauta is a great fit in the 2nd. Nauta gives the Lions an athletic pass catching threat to offset their Ebron loss.

Matt Hicks

44. Green Bay Packers: JJ Arcega-Whiteside, WR, Stanford

The Packers have a whole lot of decent in their wide receiving corps. Arcega-Whiteside gives them big red-zone threat that Jimmy Graham never became.

Matt Hicks

45. Buffalo Bills (via Atlanta): Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State

Buffalo needs to rebuild the O-Line and after grabbing a RB earlier, they’ll look for Dillard to bring some physicality. Josh Allen and his ability to look good in shorts are smiling.

Eric Adams

46. Washington Redskins: Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma

This kid is like lightning in a bottle and will fit well with new QB Drew Lock in tow. With Crowder gone to free agency, Brown is a great replacement who can do a lot of the things Crowder could do. If he wanted to, he could win out with his athleticism alone, but he has fantastic tools to add to that, making him a good weapon to have in Washington.

Christopher Nelson

47. Carolina Panthers: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida

Carolina needs to sure up the back end of their secondary, especially since they are in a division with the Saints, Falcons and a Bruce Arians led Buccaneers.  CGJ has the size, athleticism, range and versatility to contribute right away in Carolina.

Mike Colaianne

48. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (via Miami): Zach Allen, DE, Boston College

Again with the Bucs, they need talent due to a horribly inept roster. They again beef up the D-Line with Zach Allen to go along with Clelin Ferrell.

Eric Adams

49. Cleveland Browns: Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia

Ridley gives the Browns a potential playmaker to compliment Landry and Calloway. The Browns are all in on Baker and Kitchens’ creative play calling. Ridley and Risner give Cleveland’s offense an immediate boost.

Matt Hicks

50. Minnesota Vikings: Trey Pipkins, OT, Sioux Falls

The Vikings O-Line was a major area of concern last season and it must be addressed. Pipkins should be a nice upgrade.

Eric Adams

51. Tennessee Titans: Garrett Bradbury, iOL, NC State

Tennessee seems to be set at offensive tackle with Lewan and Conklin.  Now it is time to sure up the inside of the offensive line. Even though he is relatively new to the position, Bradbury is very refined, consistent and mobile.  

Mike Colaianne

52. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amani Oruwariye, CB, PSU

Pittsburgh needs to stockpile talent on the defensive side of the ball.  Specifically, they need to get someone who can consistently play opposite of Joe Haden.  Oruwariye has good size, strength and ball skills. He is a versatile player that can play in pretty much any scheme.  

Mike Colaianne

53. Philadelphia Eagles (from Baltimore): Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama

I’ll keep this short and simple: Mack Wilson has no business being on the board still. The Eagles jump at this value and grab a top 3 linebacker.

Matt Hicks

54. Houston Texans: David Edwards, OT, Wisconsin

I mentioned that offensive line was a no-brainer for the Texans in the 1st round. Getting a tackle to go along with their guard pick earlier in the draft is exactly what their offense needs. They have 3 picks in the top 55 and can afford to really invest in their trenches.

Matt Hicks

55. Houston Texans: Jace Sternberger, TE, Texas A&M

The Texans need to clean house at tight end and get a real player in there. Sternberger will provide the safety net that Watson has needed more often than not due to his O-Line.

Eric Adams

56. New England Patriots (from Chicago): Lil’Jordan Humphrey, WR, Texas

After landing the top tight end in the draft to take over for Rob Gronkowski when he does decide to hang them up, the champs load up another weapon for Tom brady in Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Humphrey brings a unique size and speed combination that has the chance to flourish in New England’s offensive system.

Eric Adams

57. Philadelphia Eagles: Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame

Pittsburgh needs to stockpile talent on the defensive side of the ball.  Specifically, they need to get someone who can consistently play opposite of Joe Haden.  Oruwariye has good size, strength and ball skills. He is a versatile player that can play in pretty much any scheme.  

Mike Colaianne

58. Dallas Cowboys: Paris Campbell, WR, Ohio State

The Cowboys continue to develop an offense with weapons for Prescott. Campbell has the ability to create separation and find space anywhere on the field. He has soft hands and can operate from the slot of as a Y. Tight End would’ve been nice but we’ve hit a tier break, so instead, Dallas gets a nice wideout to compliment Cooper and Gallup.

Matt Hicks

59. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Nelson, EDGE, Iowa

The Colts continue to heavily invest in their defense with Nelson. The EDGE class is deep and although Nelson may not be a top-tier pass rusher, he would be a great addition to a young and explosive defense.

Matt Hicks

60. Los Angeles Chargers: Emmanuel Hall, WR, Missouri

With Tyrell Williams likely gone to FA, Hall will fit right into the Chargers 3 WR sets. Another weapon for Philip Rivers.

Eric Adams

61. Kansas City Chiefs: Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia

Kansas City is pretty stacked on offense, so they should spend the majority of the draft adding talent to their defense.  Juan Thornhill is a high IQ play that contributed all four years at Virginia. He needs to continue developing as a playmaker, but his experience and athleticism should give him the ability to start right away.  

Mike Colaianne

62. New Orleans Saints: Joe Giles-Harris, LB, Duke

Giles-Harris has the ability to step in Day 1 and contribute right away for the Saints in a position of need. Giles-Harris is an intelligent player that can be a true MIKE linebacker in the NFL

Mike Colaianne

63. Kansas City Chiefs: Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M

Kansas City (rightly) focused on defense in the first, and I would’ve gone for secondary support with this pick but the top end talent has come off the board already. Instead, they get Williams, a receiving threat with 3 down back upside. Williams is dynamic, has great vision, and can be an explosive weapon in an Andy Reid offense.

Matt Hicks

64. Baltimore Ravens (via New England): Christian Miller, EDGE, Alabama

The Ravens went offense in the 1st round, which means they naturally must revert back to defense in the 2nd. Miller helps provide support for the likely departure of pass rushers in free agency
. Matt Hicks

Dynasty Mock Draft Series: May

The Dynasty Mock Draft Series is a collaborative set of articles sharing the results of mock drafts with dynasty analysts from across the fantasy football community. The full results, by round, are listed below. Each analyst that participated in this draft has their personal work hyperlinked to their description, please make sure to check out their individual work as long as all of the articles in this series. Following the second mock draft, we will also be tracking ADP, which you can find HERE.

Round 1: Gurley Falls, 1st Round Otherwise Chalk

Pick Player POS Team
1.01 Saquon Barkley RB NYG
1.02 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
1.03 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
1.04 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
1.05 Alvin Kamara RB NO
1.06 Christian McCaffrey RB CAR
1.07 Davante Adams WR GB
1.08 Michael Thomas WR NO
1.09 Le’Veon Bell RB NYJ
1.10 Todd Gurley RB LAR
1.11 Melvin Gordon RB LAC
1.12 David Johnson RB ARI

For the most part, nothing was surprising about this mock’s 1st round. Every player here is justifiable as a 1st round pick. I would like to have seen Christian McCaffrey go top 5, but again, I can’t be mad at where anyone went. The thing that stuck out to me was Gurley falling to the back end as opposed to being top 5 in recent seasons. With constant news of an arthritic knee, Gurley is probably worrying many because that could affect longevity for the running back. It also doesn’t help that the Rams drafted (with high capital) a top back in the draft to, I’m assuming, keep him more fresh. At the very least, I don’t think we will see the workloads we’ve been used to seeing in the past which could maybe push him to early round 2. Matter of fact, I would not be surprised if we see him there by late summer, early fall. Groupthink is a killer and I could see that affecting his ADP.  

Christopher Nelson, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 2: Travis Kelce comes off the board 18th overall

Pick Player POS Team
2.01 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR PIT
2.02 Joe Mixon RB CIN
2.03 James Conner RB PIT
2.04 Julio Jones WR ATL
2.05 Mike Evans WR TB
2.06 Travis Kelce TE KC
2.07 Nick Chubb RB CLE
2.08 Antonio Brown WR OAK
2.09 Dalvin Cook RB MIN
2.10 Stefon Diggs WR MIN
2.11 Keenan Allen WR LAC
2.12 Amari Cooper WR DAL

The NFL’s tight end drought is a real thing and showed with Travis Kelce going with the sixth pick in the second round.  Kelce offers close to guaranteed high end production that not only is top 3 at the tight end position but would be a borderline top 12 WR.  Last season Kelce had a career high 103 receptions for 1336 yards and ten touchdown after having over 80 catches in both of the previous two seasons as well.

With the potential loss of Tyreek Hill, Kelce truly is the focal point of the offense and should see another year of huge volume. With a lot of question marks in the second round after the first couple picks Kelce gives a high floor as well as ceiling that could be a league winner adding almost guaranteed production to the most volatile position in fantasy football

Round 3: The Quarterback Seal Is Broken

Pick Player POS Team
3.01 Kenny Golladay WR DET
3.02 George Kittle TE SF
3.03 Patrick Mahomes QB KC
3.04 Adam Thielen WR MIN
3.05 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
3.06 Zach Ertz TE PHI
3.07 Leonard Fournette RB JAX
3.08 AJ Green WR CIN
3.09 Damien Williams RB KC
3.10 Brandin Cooks WR LAR
3.11 Kerryon Johnson RB DET
3.12 D.J. Moore WR CAR

The 3rd round of the draft was full of risky picks. Some guys choose the true upside plays (Damien Williams, Dj Moore, Leonard Fournette, Kenny Golladay), while others banked on aging veterans that hopefully still have a few good season left in the tank (TY Hilton, Aj Green). However, the most controversial pick was probably Patrick Mahomes going at 3.03 or 27th overall. Most fantasy vets will tell you that it’s best to wait on quarterback.

While this statement is completely valid in redraft, I think it’s slightly overrated in dynasty. If you could go back and draft Peyton or Rodgers in their early seasons for your dynasty teams, would you do it over a WR2 or a RB2? I think most would agree having Rodgers on their teams over the past decade would be much more beneficial than guys taken in the 3rd round in 2009…names like Darren McFadden, Anquan Boldin, Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant and Marques Colston. Some of those listed players had periods of success but nothing like the prolonged success of Rodgers. I believe that Mahomes has that type of upside, maybe more.

Garret Price, Dynasty Nerds

Round 4: The Round of the (Young) Running Backs

Pick Player POS Team
4.01 Josh Jacobs RB OAK
4.02 Sony Michel RB NE
4.03 Marlon Mack RB IND
4.04 Derrick Henry RB TEN
4.05 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
4.06 Mark Ingram RB BAL
4.07 Aaron Jones RB GB
4.08 Phillip Lindsay RB DEN
4.09 Andrew Luck QB IND
4.10 Derrius Guice RB WAS
4.11 Robert Woods WR LAR
4.12 David Montgomery RB CHI

15 running backs were taken in rounds 1-3, which led to a mad dash in the 4th round-where another 10 went off the board. Jacobs (4.01) and Montgomery (4.12) were the first two rookie running backs off the board. Jacobs justifies his draft position with explosive traits, high NFL Draft capital, and the opportunity to immediately be a 3 down back for the Raiders. Montgomery has the ability to be what Jordan Howard never amounted to in a Matt Nagy offense, the same one that led to the breakout of Kareem Hunt during his rookie season.

It also features two sophomore running backs in Sony Michel (4.02) and Derrius Guice (4.10). Michel is coming off a hot finish to the 2018 season, but finds himself in a crowded backfield with the recently drafted Damien Harris along with James White and Rex Burkhead. Guice was an explosive player at LSU that had dynasty players excited last season, but a pre-season ACL injury has delayed us from seeing how he can translate to the NFL. Now he also finds himself in a crowded backfield with Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson to split volume with.

Matt Hicks, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 5: Taking an RB Outside of Top 50 is Risky

Pick Player POS Team
5.01 Eric Ebron TE IND
5.02 Kenyan Drake RB MIA
5.03 Miles Sanders RB PHI
5.04 Cooper Kupp WR LAR
5.05 Chris Godwin WR TB
5.06 Sammy Watkins WR KC
5.07 Julian Edelman WR NE
5.08 Calvin Ridley WR ATL
5.09 Tyler Boyd WR CIN
5.10 Deshaun Watson QB HOU
5.11 Mike Williams WR LAC
5.12 OJ Howard TE TB

The 5th round was book ended by TEs, Ebron (5.01) and O.J. Howard (5.12), great value for Howard as he went as our 5th TE at pick 60.  The real story is the tier drop for RBs and all of you Zero RB guys would have really felt that run on RBs round 5, 8 in a row and 10 out of 12 RBs.  Leaving only Kenyan Drake (5.2) and Myles Sanders (5.3) both teams RB2. One QB off of the board and that was Mr. DeShaun Watson 5.10, 3rd QB off of the board and no QBs were selected in round 6, maybe could have waited for the turn.

The meat of this round was the WRs, a little slotty with Edelman (5.7), Godwin (5.5), Boyd (5.9), and Kupp (5.4).  Watkins has been a riser and at 5.6 already as we await the Hill news, boom or bust pick. The last 2 guys produced 10 TDs a piece last year, Calvin Ridley (5.8) and Mike Williams (5.11).  Overall, no real big surprises and a lot of safe picks with high floors minus Watkins. Love the WR value this rain, do not like the way RBs fell at all. A little Rich for me with Ebron at 5.1 and Watson at 5.10.

Dynasty Dorks

Round 6: Steady Roster Fillers, with a Dash of Upside

Pick Player POS Team
6.01 Chris Carson RB SEA
6.02 Allen Robinson WR CHI
6.03 Jarvis Landry WR CLE
6.04 Alshon Jeffery WR PHI
6.05 Tarik Cohen RB CHI
6.06 Lamar Miller RB HOU
6.07 Dante Pettis WR SF
6.08 Hunter Henry TE LAC
6.09 James White RB NE
6.10 Kareem Hunt RB CLE
6.11 Tyler Lockett WR SEA
6.12 Robby Anderson WR NYJ

The sixth round of fantasy drafts is a time when the majority of high end, potential league winners have come off the board. If the right upside play is chosen, a player in the sixth could still make a huge impact on who controls the league, particularly in a dynasty format. But often owners opt to go in a safe direction to fill their starting lineups out. Players like Chris Carson, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis Landry fit the bill of players who are not that exciting to draft, but are competent players an owner can plug into a starting position and expect a solid contribution from on a weekly basis.

However, since this is a dynasty league mock draft and not a redraft league, I felt it was way too early for a guy like Lamar Miller. Almost 30 and in the final year of his contract, he should still be available in about round 10 of dynasty start up drafts. Kareem Hunt was one of the true boom-or-bust upside plays in the sixth round. Since he won’t be playing until week 9 this season (with an unknown future beyond 2019), it was earlier than I’m willing to take him, particularly with so many high upside players still on the board without the baggage. My choice of Dante Pettis is another boom-or-bust pick, as is the selection of Hunter Henry, but both could pay off big if those players pan out.

Kevin Scott, FanSided.com

Round 7: There, There. It’s Safe to Take a non-Barkley Giant, now

Pick Player POS Team
7.01 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA
7.02 Baker Mayfield QB CLE
7.03 N’Keal Harry WR NE
7.04 Evan Engram TE NYG
7.05 Tevin Coleman RB SF
7.06 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
7.07 Golden Tate WR NYG
7.08 Russell Wilson QB SEA
7.09 Tyreek Hill WR KC
7.10 Geronimo Allison WR GB
7.11 Rashaad Penny RB SEA
7.12 Sterling Shepard WR NYG

This is the round where our mock drafters decided to start taking chances. Rookies, a receiver that might not play in 2019, some upside-second fiddle running backs, and some high end quarterbacks all came off the board. The biggest surprise was that three New York Giants were selected in this round.

Evan Engram was the 7th Tight End to come off the board. This is a great place to grab Evan Engram. He has the potential to be a top 5 Tight End with the absence of OBJ and Eli Manning’s need to manage the ball when he doesn’t hand it off to Saquon. He will also have longevity and success at the position after Manning’s career ends.

Golden Tate or Sterling Shepard? They both went in this round and both could have seventh round value. At the very least, they will be Kings of Garbage Time in 2019. I selected Golden Tate over Sterling Shepard because of the same reasons why Engram should succeed. Eli will be looking for the shorter pass to manage the game. Tate’s yards-after-the-catch stats are an added bonus.

It’s clear that the members of this mock are the “wait on a QB” type because Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson would not last until the 7th round in our home/work leagues. I love all 3 of these picks here since all three are high end Quarterbacks and have several years left in their careers.

Finally, Tyreek Hill was selected near the end of the 7th round. Somebody was going to take the chance despite the likelihood that he doesn’t play for the season. If he does have a career after 2019, this pick will pay dividends! If not, the pick’s value isn’t high enough to consider it a waste. It’s worth the risk, although too early for me.

Marc Szymanski, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 8:  Corey Davis’ Slide Ends

Pick Player POS Team
8.01 Corey Davis WR TEN
8.02 Courtland Sutton WR DEN
8.03 Will Fuller WR HOU
8.04 Christian Kirk WR ARI
8.05 David Njoku TE CLE
8.06 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
8.07 T.J. Hockenson TE DET
8.08 Jerick McKinnon RB SF
8.09 Parris Campbell WR IND
8.10 Austin Hooper TE ATL
8.11 Marquise Brown WR BAL
8.12 Ito Smith RB ATL

We finally see Corey Davis get picked at 8.01, falling behind guys like Alshon Jeffery, Allen Robinson, Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate.  It is clear that fantasy players are becoming impatient with Davis and the rest of the Tennessee Titans. Between injuries, inconsistent QB play and an offensive scheme geared toward the run, Davis hasn’t been able to live up to the hype of being selected 5th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft.  However, if Mariota and the rest of this offense gets right this year, Davis definitely has the talent to be a significant value at this point. The rest of this round is filled with guys that I really like and have some nice upside due to talent or situation. Courtland Sutton, Will Fuller, Christian Kirk and Parris Campbell are guys that I believe are extremely talented and could be big time producers.

Mike Colaianne, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 9: Upside Running Backs Round

Pick Player POS Team
9.01 Justice Hill RB BAL
9.02 Royce Freeman RB DEN
9.03 D’Onta Foreman RB HOU
9.04 Dion Lewis RB TEN
9.05 Mecole Hardman WR KC
9.06 A.J. Brown WR TEN
9.07 Matt Ryan QB ATL
9.08 Jordan Howard RB PHI
9.09 Ronald Jones RB TB
9.10 Carlos Hyde RB KC
9.11 Noah Fant TE DEN
9.12 Carson Wentz QB PHI

The opening pick of round nine hinted that this might be the time more of the upside running backs would come off the board. Justice Hill was a wasted pick in redraft format because his health issues might delay his start to the 2019 season. Royce Freeman and D’Onta Foreman were the steals of this round with huge upside potential if they can win a larger share of the carries. Fantasy players infatuation with rookies over second or third years who had struggled came through loud and clear with rookie wide receiver picks. Matt Ryan was a steal in the ninth round as the 7th quarterback off the board.  

Dennis Michelsen, FlurrySports.org

Round 10: Filling in Needs with Good Teams

Pick Player POS Team
10.01 Darrell Henderson RB LAR
10.02 Tyrell Williams WR OAK
10.03 Vance McDonald TE PIT
10.04 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
10.05 James Washington WR PIT
10.06 Dede Westbrook WR JAX
10.07 Latavius Murray RB NO
10.08 Jaylen Samuels RB PIT
10.09 Drew Brees QB NO
10.10 Matt Breida RB SF
10.11 Nyheim Hines RB IND
10.12 Jameis Winston QB TB

Round 10 was one of the most balanced in terms of positions selected in the entire draft. There were 3 QBs, 5 RBs, 3 WRs and 1TE taken. Several players were selected in this round to fill in starting line-up requirements. Two QBs, Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston, were drafted with that purpose.  Winston especially has a great opportunity this season under Bruce Arians. He has tremendous upside for the 11th QB taken in the draft.

Personally, I used the strategy of waiting on a certain position until the 10th round. I grabbed my starting TE here as Vance McDonald was my highest ranked at the position still on the board.

Interestingly enough, there were four Steelers players drafted in the 10th round. In general, people were looking towards good NFL offenses in this round with teams like the Rams, the Saints, the 49ers, the Colts and the Buccaneers represented.

Kyle Senra, Full Press Coverage

Round 11: Youth, old and everything in between.

Pick Player POS Team
11.01 Philip RIvers QB LAR
11.02 Keke Coutee WR HOU
11.03 Curtis Samuel WR CAR
11.04 Jared Cook TE NO
11.05 Deebo Samuel WR SF
11.06 Hakeem Butler WR ARI
11.07 Jimmy Garoppolo QB SF
11.08 Cam Newton QB CAR
11.09 Mitch Trubisky QB CHI
11.10 Austin Ekeler RB LAC
11.11 Tre’Quan Smith WR NO
11.12 Marvin Jones WR DET

When you think of players that could be available in round 11, the first thought that might come to your mind is “blah”. But when you’re drafting with smart dudes, it’s a round that can help you win in year one of a start up league.

This round was filled with top end quarterbacks (Cam Newton, Philip Rivers), nice upside wide receivers (Curtis Samuel, Tre’Quan Smith, Marvin Jones), very interesting rookies (Deebo Samuel, Hakeem Butler) and a TE1 (Jared Cook).

Getting a guy like Newton, if healthy, seems like a steal in round 11. Curtis Samuel might be the #2 WR in Carolina for Newton, while Marvin Jones should benefit with no Golden Tate in town. Butler is someone who I really loved before the NFL Draft, but the landing spot brings up some questions. Cook comes off his first career pro bowl appearance and should produce another solid season in New Orleans.

My pick in this round was Smith. He had some monster games last season for the Saints and could see an uptick of targets with another great training camp in 2019. I went RB early (5 of my first 7 picks) in this mock, so I wanted to swing for the fences in my WR department. Smith fits that mold.

Anthony Zaragoza, Dynasty Football Factory

Round 12: Wide Receiver depth takes center stage.

Pick Player POS Team
12.01 Daesean Hamilton WR DEN
12.02 Jared Goff QB LAR
12.03 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
12.04 Devin Singletary RB BUF
12.05 Anthony Miller WR CHI
12.06 Kalen Ballage RB MIA
12.07 Devin Funchess WR IND
12.08 Josh Allen QB BUF
12.09 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
12.10 Kyler Murray QB ARI
12.11 Delanie Walker TE TEN
12.12 Mike Davis RB CHI

In the 12th and final round, it is apparent that prioritizing RB depth over WR depth should be prioritized in any startup. The remaining receivers that are still available at the end of this draft are far better than the remaining running backs. Just take those drafted in the 12th as an example. Devin Singletary, Kalen Ballage and Mike Davis are all facing an uphill battle for playing time. Whereas Daesean Hamilton, Larry Fitzgerald, Anthony Miller and Devin Funchess all have secured roles already in place. I ended my draft selecting Hamilton with the 12.01 as I firmly believe he has the chance to pace the Broncos in all major receiving categories this year. Flacco may not last all year with Drew Lock now on the team and I believe Lock and

Hamilton can grow together and begin to build chemistry with one another as early as this year. So at this point in the draft grabbing a guy like Hamilton who could end up as the top scoring receiver in Denver far outweighs grabbing a backup running back. This is why I would advocate to grab running backs early and utilize the insane receiver depth to your advantage to put your team in the best position to win this year and for years to come. Not to mention, more often than not, receiver is way deeper than running back in rookie drafts as well, so you can always look there to shore up your receiving corps if you go with a running back heavy approach in your startup.

Happy-Hour Fantasy, Gridiron Experts

Fantasy Football Big Board 3.0 (Hicks)

Welcome to my third fantasy football big board. I’ve already released positional rankings, based purely on tape, for each position group. You may want to check out those articles before reading this if you haven’t already. You also may want to check out my second big board article to see where I had some of these players pre-draft. Note below that “BB2” refers to where I ranked them in this article.

Now the NFL Draft is over and landing spots have flipped my big board on its head. In addition to landing spots, I’ve significantly increased my big board to include anyone with relevant draft capital or priority undrafted free agents (UDFA) I was high on pre-draft.

Here are my top 104 rookies following the 2019 NFL Draft, broken in 6 tiers.


First Time Players use Promo Code “Top2” for FREE Entry

Tier 1: Potential 1.01 Picks

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
110WRN’Keal HarryNew England
2108RBJosh JacobsOakland
32-1WRDK MetcalfSeattle
462TENoah FantDenver
583RBMiles SandersPhiladelphia

It was tough for me to draw a clear line for my “tier 1” post NFL Draft-I chose to go with the players I think could go with the 1.01 pick in dynasty rookie drafts, depending on team need.

Personally N’Keal Harry is far and away my 1.01; he was my 1.01 pre-draft for his athleticism, YAC potential, quickness, and production at Arizona State. Now he is paired with perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time in Tom Brady, and in an offense that has no significant threats to Harry’s target potential past Julian Edelman.

Josh Jacobs, though, is my biggest riser: I liked him tape but was not convinced he could be an immediate 3 down back in the NFL. It remains to be seen how quickly he will be thrown into that role, but Oakland made a bold statement about what they see in Jacobs when they selected him with the 24th overall pick. The explosive and strong running back out of Alabama now finds himself in a surprisingly balanced offense with Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Hunter Renfrow as passing game threats for Derek Carr.

DK Metcalf and Miles Sanders’ landing spots have been questioned by many, but not me. Metcalf finds himself competing only with Tyler Lockett (pending an official retirement announcement from Doug Baldwin) for targets from Russell Wilson-a top 5 quarterback in the NFL. Miles Sanders’ crowded running back depth chart doesn’t bother me-I don’t expect Jordan Howard to be in Philadelphia past the 2019 season, and I’ll be surprised if more than one of Clement, Sproles, Adams, and Smallwood make it onto the 53 man roster come September.

Tier 2: High Upside, but Not Without the Risk

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
693TETJ HockensonDetroit
75-2WRAJ BrownTennessee
8135RBDavid MontgomeryChicago
9112WRParris CampbellIndianapolis
10122WRDeebo SamuelSan Francisco
112716WRJJ Arcega-WhitesidePhiladelphia
12153TEIrv Smith JrMinnesota
133118WRMarquise BrownBaltimore
14239WRJalen HurdSan Francisco
1514-1RBJustice HillBaltimore

Tier 2 is stacked with talent; the combined upside of this group makes me scoff at those who claim this is a weak rookie class. Still, there are flaws to be found alongside the homerun potential of many of these players.

AJ Brown remains high on my draft board, despite a questionable landing spot. Brown will likely have to play outside for the Titans, who inked Adam Humphries earlier this off season, and will be playing with the inconsistent Marcus Mariota. Brown, though, succeeded on the outside at Ole Miss-Vanderbilt was perhaps his best game tape and he played primarily outside. Mariota, is coming off a season where he didn’t have feeling in his hand or throwing shoulder for most of the season. Combine that with a new offensive coordinator and the potential of a balanced running game and the Titans offense is suddenly becoming one that could produce a lot of fantasy football points in 2019. Brown can be the forced volume safety net that Mariota needs to consistently attacked defenses; leading to high PPR upside for Brown.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside (JJAW) is a big riser for me post-NFL Draft. I question JJAW’s long speed and ability to create separation, but Philadelphia saw him as a better fit in their offense than players like Hakeem Butler and DK Metcalf. The Eagles are rumored to be shopping Nelson Agholor and could cut Alshon Jeffery for major cap relief following the 2019 season. JJAW is a power forward who uses his large frame to box out defenders well-an intriguing skillset on a team that sees a lot of red zone opportunity when Carson Wentz is healthy.

Tier 3: Get Your Guy

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
164-12WRHakeem ButlerArizona
173518WRAndy IsabellaArizona
183921RBAlexander MattisonMinnesota
19245TEJace SternbergerGreen Bay
20255WRTerry McLaurinWashington
2118-3WRMiles BoykinBaltimore
2216-6RBDamien HarrisNew England
233-20WRKelvin HarmonWashington
24262QBKyler MurrayArizona
25283RBDarrell HendersonLos Angeles Rams
267-19RBRodney AndersonCincinnatti
27N/AN/AWRMecole HardmanKansas City

Once dynasty rookie drafts start to move beyond the mid second round hit rates start to drop and draft strategy becomes critically important. For me, this is when things get fun and I start to go after my guys. All of these players could fit into that category; especially risers like Andy Isabella or fallers like Kelvin Harmon.

Alexander Mattison quietly finds himself in one of my favorite landing spots. Mattison is a well-rounded back with solid vision, good strength, and good agility for his size. He has the potential to catch balls out of the backfield or pound the ball in at the goal line. Dalvin Cook has always had a handcuff, and we should expect Mattision to get a Latavius Murray-esq workload even when Cook is fully healthy. Mattision, though, has more goal line potential, and that could lead to a lot of fantasy football value. I suggest latching onto this guy before others catch on.

I may just be the only person on #DraftTwitter who actually bumped Henderson up on their big board post draft. Henderson’s Memphis tape did not impress me: I saw him rely on large gaps, depend on his running back teammates to wear down poor competition, and a lack of vision. Now, though, Henderson gets paired with one of the best offensive lines in the country, on an offense where Todd Gurley can wear down opposing defenses, and on a team that consistently moves the ball down field. Henderson may not get the volume you’d want, but he will have every opportunity to make home run plays that give fantasy football players a great return on investment in the late second/early third round.

Tier 4: Late Round Dart Throws

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
28291QBDrew LockDenver
29367RBDevin SingletaryBuffalo
30322QBDwayne HaskinsWashington
314312TEDawson KnoxBuffalo
32331WRRiley RidleyChicago
3322-11WRDillon MitchellMinnesota
34406RBBenny SnellPittsburgh
35372QBDaniel JonesNew York Giants
36N/AN/ATEKahale WarringHouston
375114RBBryce LoveWashington
3820-18WRStanley MorganCincinatti
3930-9RBJames WilliamsKansas City
4019-21RBTrayveon WilliamsCincinatti
4134-7RBDevine OzigboNew Orleans
42N/AN/ATEJosh OliverJacksonville
43452WRHunter RenfrowOakland
445511WRKeeSean JohnsonArizona
456318QBJarrett StidhamNew England
46N/AN/ATEAlize MackNew Orleans
47N/AN/AWRGary JenningsSeattle
48N/AN/ARBDexter WilliamsGreen Bay

Note: I’m switching to quick notes on players for the rest of this article, to provide you with as many content as possible.

Drew Lock is an investment pick-he likely will “redshirt” behind Flacco this year. He is worth the wait, though, his velocity and ability to work all 3 levels of the field made him my favorite quarterback on tape. With a year in Denver he can correct the mechanics issues that plummeted his draft capital.

Dawson Knox is a highly athletic TE who converted from quarterback to see little volume in a stacked Ole Miss offense. He will have the chance to win the starting role in a Buffalo offense desperate for playmakers.

James Williams may be a UDFA, but he is a a fantastic pass catching back with high PPR upside in a Kansas City offense that seems to be taking the “quantity over quality approach” to their backfield. Williams may end up being a RB2 in fantasy football in 2019, or he may not make the 53 man roster-he’s a major dart throw.

Alize Mack doesn’t have the best tape out there, but he has sneaky upside on a high powered offense that couldn’t find a viable tight end in 2018.

Tier 5: Taxi Squad Heros

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
49N/AN/ARBRyquell ArmsteadJacksonville
50522WRWill GrierCarolina
5146-5RBMyles GaskinMiami
5217-35WREmanuel HallChicago
5349-4WRLil Jordan
Humphrey
New Orleans
54540QBEaston StickLos Angeles Chargers
55N/AN/AWRTerry GodwinCarolina
56N/AN/ATECaleb WilsonArizona
57N/AN/ARBAnthony PollardDallas
58N/AN/AWRJakobi MeyersNew England
59N/AN/ATEDrew SampleCincinatti
6041-19TEDax RaymondChicago
61N/AN/ATEFoster MoreauOakland
62N/AN/AQBRyan FinleyCincinatti
6348-15RBMike WeberDallas
6453-11TEKaden SmithSan Francisco
6544-21RBElijah HolyfieldCarolina
6650-16WRGreg DortchNew York Jets
67N/AN/ATETrevon WescoNew York Jets
68N/AN/ARBQadree OllisonAtlanta
69N/AN/AWRDarius SlaytonNew York Giants
70N/AN/ARBDarwin ThompsonKansas City
71N/AN/ATETommy SweeneyBuffalo
72N/AN/ARBBruce AndersonTampa Bay
73N/AN/AWRPenny HartIndianapolis
74N/AN/AWRJazz FergusonSeattle
75N/AN/AWRAshton DulinIndianapolis

Emanuel Hall is a seriously flashy tape review-he burned NFL bound SEC defensive backs consistently at Missouri but struggled to stay healthy. He could end up being yet another dynamic piece in Matt Nagy’s offense.

Lil’ Jordan Humphrey’s draft stock plummeted with a horrendous combine. Still, he’s a PFF favorite for a reason and the over sized slot wideout may end up moving to tight end. Still, he signs as a UDFA with the Saints-giving him upside potential.

Foster Moreau is a raw but athletic tight end of of LSU; he likely will take some time to develop but faces a lack of competition for targets in Oakland’s depth chart.

Ashton Dulin is a Division 2 phenom out of Malone College, and a bit of a lore among those who covet dominator rating to measure the potential success of wide receivers. Dulin lands in a good offense in Indianapolis who doesn’t have much depth past Hilton, Funchess, and now Campbell.

Tier 6: Deep League Dives

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
7660-16TEIsaac NautaDetroit
7762-15QBGardner MinshewJacksonville
78N/AN/AWRTravis FulghamDetroit
79N/AN/AQBClayton ThorsonPhiladelphia
80N/AN/ARBTravis HomerSeattle
8158-23RBKaran HigdonHouston
8221-61RBAlex BarnesTennessee
83N/AN/AQBTrace McSorleyBaltimore
84N/AN/ATEZach GentryPittsburgh
85N/AN/ARBTy JohnsonDetroit
8647-39QBTyree JacksonBuffalo
87N/AN/ARBJordan ScarlettCarolina
8857-31WRDavid SillsBuffalo
89N/AN/AWRJuwann WinfreeDenver
9061-29RBDamarea CrockettHouston
91N/AN/AWROlamide ZaccheausAtlanta
92N/AN/AWRPreston WilliamsMiami
93N/AN/AWRAnthony Ratliff-WilliamsTennessee
94N/AN/ATEDonald ParhamDetroit
95N/AN/AWRMarcus GreenAtlanta
96N/AN/ARBCullen GillaspiaHouston
97N/AN/ARBKerrith Whyte JrChicago
98N/AN/AWROlasibi JohnsonMinnesota
9942-57QBBrett RypienDenver
10056-44WRDeMarkus LodgeTampa Bay
101N/AN/AWRJohn UrsuaSeattle
102N/AN/AWRScott MillerTampa Bay
10338-65WRAnthony JohnsonFree Agent
10459-45QBJordan Ta’amuFree Agent

Isaac Nauta was once considered among the top tight ends in this draft class-poor combine testing, though, doomed the former two sport IMG Academy standout. He ends up being the 2nd tight end drafted by Detroit (TJ Hockenson 8th overall), and will likely be buried on that depth chart-but he’s worth a late stash if he develops into more than a blocking tight end.

Gardner Minshew is still fairly raw-with just one season as a starting quarterback at Washington State. Minshew is undersized but can work the first two levels of the field, stretch the pocket, and is coveted by his teammates for his leadership. He’s a deep stash, but with two years behind Foles to develop, there’s a chance he gets a shot at the starting job following the end of the Jaguar’s newest quarterback’s contract.

Alex Barnes is extremely talented, and I find it a bit ironic he lands with the Titans: he has elements of both Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis in his game. He likely won’t see the field early in his career, barring injury, but has great vision, is a very powerful runner, and hands soft hands that make him a threat anywhere on the field.

Trace McSorely add yet another element of quickness for Baltimore in a draft that seems to indicate the future of their offense around Lamar Jackson. Look for McSorely to take on a gadget-type role, similar to the one Taysom Hill adopted for the Saints in 2018, for Baltimore. It may not surmount to any significant fantasy football value, but if your rosters are deep enough he’s worth consideration.