With a little over 7 weeks until the start of the 2018 season, some of us are already drafting our Fantasy teams. There’s no better feeling on Labor Day than seeing a player you drafted in the 4th round in July now jumping up a round or 2. On the flip side of that coin is realizing you (along with the rest of the drafting community) were wrong about a players value. On this mid July day, I’d like to bring into focus two players I believe will be moving in opposite directions.
Guice Gaining Ground
Let’s start off positive and talk about Derrius Guice. Currently the 18th (36th overall) running back coming off the board in NFFC high stakes drafts. Almost the same spot Dalvin Cook was this time last year. Like cook, I expect an almost full round jump for Guice vaulting him ahead of unsexy names like Drake, Howard and Mixon. Alex Smith is now the QB in Washington and his rich history of handing/dumping off the rock to Frank Gore, Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt is not to be ignored. Guice took over the reigns from Leonard Fournette at LSU where he looked poised for the NFL just like his predicessor.
His tier of talent and proven ability levels off this year at Devonta Freeman. The uncontrollable hype that is Jerrick McKinnon won’t allow Guice to move ahead at the moment but I can see him outproducing McKinnon by the end of the year. Don’t forget that a rookie has led the league in rushing the past two seasons. NFL coaches and Drafters alike remember things like this and are putting more and more stock in rookies than ever before. Get him at 36 overall while you can. If drafting in the 1/2/3/4 slot, then I would skip McKinnon in the second round for a WR or Gronkowski and try for Guice early in round 3. David Johnson/Davante Adams/ Derrius Guice is a great way to start this year.
Tyreek Stock in Turmoil
On the contrary we have exhibit number 11. Tyreek Hill is the 11th (29th overall) Wide receiver being drafted in NFFC high stakes leagues. One of the most difficult things to do in the NFL is have a receiver quickly gel with his new QB. In Kansas City, we have a quarterback who is trying to prove himself and not afraid to use his legs. That could lead to a lot of throws Alex Smith was comfortable in attempting turning into tuck and runs for Pat Mahomes. Hill was boom or bust last year and that was with a QB having his best year as a pro.
I’ve already seen him drop from 10 to 11 and won’t be surprised if he moves down to 15/16 almost flip flopping spots with Guice. 3 of the 5 receivers being drafted after him also have new QBs this year so that may keep his ADP higher than I expect. I would draft Theilen, Fitzgerald, Diggs, Cooper and Hilton all ahead of him.