What’s Green is not Golden and neither is Brown.
I was told by my comrades here at Top2sports that the fans love stats to back up opinions. I also know we as fantasy fans love to predict the unknown. We aren’t going to do that today. I know I know, why do a boring piece on guys who have been doing it year in and year out? Why when we have fresh meat like Barkley, Watson and Kamara to speculate on? Because I’m gonna give you a stat that you may not believe?
Lion vs Bengal vs Everyone Else
Over the past 4 seasons in PPR leagues Golden Tate has averaged 93/1056/5.
To put that into perspective I’ll tell you that AJ (a Guy you’ve been drafting 2 rounds ahead of Tate) has averaged 74/1095/7 in the same 4 years. And guess what? He’s being takin 2-3 rounds ahead of Tate again this year. Green currently has an ADP of 19 and is the 8th wide receiver off the board in PPR. He’s been jumping back-and-forth between the first and second round for what seems like forever. Last year I stopped buying in on the Green hype and passed him up in the second round for Todd (I finally got one right) Gurley. I’ll be doing the same this year if presented the chance in the second.
The more I look at who might be my number 2 WR this year I get scared. The nine receivers being drafted in between Doug (12) Baldwin and Golden (22)Tate all have major question marks. Hilton needs Luck back badly and we just don’t know what’s happening there other than the Indy coaches are LIARS. Diggs has had availability issues in his short career and now a stud RB to contend with for TDS. Fitz while still the safest of all these guys has a new QB and is on the unkind side of 30. Cooper has never lived up to his expectations or potential. Smith-Schuster was very dependent on Browns absence the last few games of 2017 to get his numbers. Allen Robinson is on a new team and hasn’t done squat since 2015. Thomas has been on a serious decline for 3 years. Finally Brandin Cooks another guy on a new team who has had the benefit of playing with Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Let’s see if he can get it done with a worse quarterback and a team with a great defense that won’t need to throw very much.
All these guys may have higher ceilings but they also have much higher risk. 9 guys you might want to jump over for the safety of Golden Tate. Luckily you won’t have to.
Here’s another fun stat from more than a decent sample size: since 2010 the number one receiver in the NFL at forced missed tackles is Golden Tate. Just in case you’re wondering, number two is Antonio Brown. Yes I just had the audacity to compare Golden Tate to your number one and number seven receiver this year. The numbers (that you love!) don’t lie.
Now I’m not suggesting you stun your hometown league by going with Tate in the second round. If you’ve been that guy in the past that jumped at the chance to draft AJ Green in the second round and let’s Golden Tate slide by in the 4th you may want to reconsider this year.
What to do with this info?
Let’s say you are drafting out of the 3-6 spot. Going RB/RB you’d be looking at guys like Mike Evans/Adam Theilen/Doug Baldwin in the 3rd round. All are fine number one wide receiver who are set to get a lot of targets this season and cheaper than AJ Green. In the 4th round most of your league mates will looking at a bunch of trouble. You’ll be looking for Golden Tate