ADP Drop: 5 Players with Fleeting Value

Welcome to a quick little ditty on some players whom some fantasy analysts thought could be drafted at a value. These are the players that we figured would deliver higher than their pre-preseason ADP. The only problem is that the rest of the universe has caught on in recent weeks and these players are no longer being drafted at the value that we previously enjoyed.

TY Hilton

Everybody knows that TY Hilton is amazing and talented. Last season, we all watched in horror as we collectively learned that Jim Irsay fibbed in the 2017 preseason about the likelihood of Andrew Luck playing. Likely done to sell season tickets, it also led the fantasy world astray.

Fast forward to 2018, the fantasy world was feeling good about Andrew Luck playing and were giddy when TY Hilton was being drafted late in the fourth round. He could deliver WR2 value with a subpar quarterback. Throw in the chance of Andrew Luck playing and you had a potential league winner on your hands.

Using some data collected through the Mock Draft Series as well as the Fantasy Draft Calculator, his ascension is complete:

MDS 1 (May) MDS 2 (June) FDC July 23 FDC Today
4.01 5.03 3.10 3.03

No, you will not be getting TY Hilton at a value any longer. He is worthy of the low end WR1 value that he is being drafted at today.

Enjoying Our Articles? Try Listening to us! Check out the Top2Pod HERE

Stefon Diggs

I’ll be honest with this one. I am stumped. The quarterback situation has not changed  since May and neither has the receiving corp around him. He is arguably more talented than Adam Thielen but also has a history of injuries preventing him from playing all 16 games (he has played in 14 games in all three of his NFL seasons). All of those things considered, he has risen up the draft boards as if suddenly granted magical powers changing his circumstances.

MDS 1 (May) MDS 2 (June) FDC July 23 FDC Today
4.08 3.03* 4.01 3.05
* Drafted using assumptions which turned out accurate, I am impressed by @DynastyDorks

Those among us who will choose to draft the Minnesota WR that falls farther down the board are almost guaranteed to be left with Adam Thielen.

Alex Collins

Alex Collins move up the board is based on three things:

  • Some RBs are experiencing injuries, thinning the herd
  • Some RBs are underperforming in the preseason
  • Some are finally realizing that he will actually be the focal point of the Ravens run game

Suddenly, he is no longer a starting running back that you could draft later than the others. If you want him, you’re going to have to pay.

MDS 1 (May) MDS 2 (June) FDC July 23 FDC Today
4.03 4.07 4.02 3.06

Be THE Best Commissioner or League Mate & Spice Up Your League with Custom Trophies, Belts, Jerseys & More from Fantasy Champs-Get 10% OFF with Promo Code “Top2” HERE

Lamar Miller

This one is ridiculously simple: D’onta Foreman is likely going to start the season on the PUP. Alfred Blue is mediocre at best. This leaves the also mediocre Lamar Miller (although, much better than Alfred Blue) as the running back who will get all of the opportunities. He might only run for 3 yards a carry, but if he runs the ball 20 times and catches 5 passes for a few yards each then you’ve just scored approximately 13 points in PPR. Bonus if he scores a touchdown!

MDS 1 (May) MDS 2 (June) FDC July 23 FDC Today
4.07 5.11 4.06 4.01

Royce Freeman

Royce Freeman has shined in the preseason. He has scored in each of the games and has run with the first team. Adding to those positives, he also appears to be the goal-line back. Much like Alex Collins, Royce has maintained his health and has shown that he will have the main RB roll on his team. His move up the board is the most impressive.

MDS 1 (May) MDS 2 (June) FDC July 23 FDC Today
Undrafted (10 rnd) Undrafted (12 rnd) 5.04 4.03

Final Thoughts

Back in July, mock drafts were allowing us to wait on these talented players. Had those been real drafts, those who drafted them would be enjoying some pretty impressive depth at those positions. Today is a different story. That story telling only strengthens my love of Fantasy Football. What will tomorrow bring and who will be the next players to improve their ADP? Tell me your thoughts at @FFA_Marc.

Published by

Marc Szymanski

@FFA_Marc on Twitter Resident of southeast Michigan and the wonderful suburbs of Detroit. In real life, I am the Manager of Technology Operations for a software company. Graduated from Baker College with an MBA in Information Systems. Fan of the wonderful game called Fantasy Football. Fan of the Packers AND Lions. Thanks to Madden '94 for the Sega Genesis for causing an internal struggle twice a year.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s