Targeting Value: Late Round Redraft Values Part 2

Here I am continuing to dive into the later rounds ADPs and looking at guys who I think could have value during the 2018 season. All ADPs are taken from for PPR leagues as of August 14th. These are the guys I am monitoring and why I think they have potential value this season.

Cole Beasley (14.01)

The Cowboys are likely going to be running a ball control, safe offense in 2017. They have Zeke back and they are going to want to re-build Dak Prescott’s confidence. Beasley is one of the few pass catchers returning this season in Dallas and he’s the best receiving option for short to intermediate routes in the middle of the field. With Witten gone, those targets are going to be important for the Dallas offense. With a career catch rate of 70%, Beasley is the most likely beneficiary of these vacated targets. He should provide a safe baseline in PPR leagues. Over the last 4 seasons, Beasley has caught 4 or 5 TDs every year. If this is added to an expected increase in targets then Beasley could be a valuable bench piece.

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Kalen Ballage (14.04)

Taking a shot on Ballage this late is a move that, if it hits, will payoff big. This has more to do with how the Dolphins seem to regard Kenyan Drake because for whatever reason they do not want to commit to giving him a large workload. Last year, the team preferred Damian Williams over him and he only received the volume when Williams was hurt. This year, they brought in Frank Gore and drafted Ballage. So it still seems like there is no commitment to Drake. It feels likely that Ballage will have a chance to carve out a role and depending on how the season goes , he’ll have a chance to be featured down the line. At his price, it makes a lot of sense to have him on the end of your bench.

Josh Doctson (12.08)/Paul Richardson (14.05)

I am grouping these guys together because 1 of them will be the guy catching TDs for the Redskins. I do not trust Jordan Reed to stay healthy, so Alex Smith will need to find someone else as his go to guy when it is time to score. Both Richardson and Doctson flashed some TD potential, each finishing with 6 TDs in 2017. This is a situation where I encourage you to pick the WR you prefer. I lean to the former first round pick Doctson as he profiles as the better red zone weapon with his size and he out targeted Richardson in the red zone in 2017 15 to 9. He is also already familiar with the Redskins’ offense. I expect to have at least one of these guys on a number of teams in 2018.

Chris Ivory (14.07)

The backup running back in Buffalo has shown a significant amount of fantasy production in 2 of the 3 seasons McCoy has been there. In 2015, Karlos Williams had 104 touches and 9 total TDs in only 11 games. In 2016, Mike Gillislee had 110 touches and 9 total TDs in 15 games. The role in 2017 did not have the same value, but that can be attributed to the backup being Mike Tolbert. The Bills are going to be a run heavy team with an aging starter in LeSean McCoy. McCoy has seen a lot of volume in his career and 2017 was his least efficient rushing season at 4 yards per carry. Buffalo would be smart to try to keep him fresh by letting him have his rest on a few drives. It is hard to find RBs with value this late, but Ivory represents someone who could be flexed in the right match up if needed and has upside if McCoy misses any time for injury or any of the off-the-field stuff that has been going on this year.

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Albert Wilson (Currently Undrafted)

This is a player you could either take with your last pick before taking a kicker or defense or keep an eye on him when he is sitting on the waiver wire. The slot role in Miami will be valuable and Jarvis Landry has left town. Amendola may start the season as the guy, but Wilson has the talent to succeed in this role. Expecting Amendola to hold up under a heavy target load seems like a bad bet to me. If the Dolphins try to give most of that volume to Amendola, then it is only a matter of time before he’s hurt based on his history. It may take a few weeks before he is relevant, but if Wilson gets that role then he will be a huge PPR fantasy asset.

Late Round QBs 

 I won’t go into each name here, but to illustrate the principal of waiting on QB here are some of the names available in round 10 or later: Matt Ryan (10.01), Philip Rivers (10.04), Ben Roethlisberger (10.10), Alex Smith (12.07), Dak Prescott (14.01) Blake Bortles (14.05), Mitchell Trubisky (14.08) & Case Keenum (14.09). There are other values in this range at QB that I did not include, but these are all names that will be fantasy relevant in 2018. Please wait on a QB in leagues where you only start 1. I keep reiterating this point but going QB early really does not make logical sense in a draft.

Those are the late rounders I am keeping an eye on currently, there are plenty of diamonds to be found late in drafts.

Like this Article? Check out Part 1 of the Series Here

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