I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.
If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.
Favorite Play: Patrick Mahomes (KC) vs New England
We saw the floor for Mahomes in Week 5; he threw for 313 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions vs a very tough Jacksonville defense. Mahomes salvaged his fantasy performance by sneaking in a rushing touchdown (his second in the past two weeks). Now Mahomes draws a much easier match-up against the Patriots: who have allowed an average of 262 passing yards and 1.25 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks this season; and we know Mahomes is far above average. Vegas has this game pegged as the highest scoring game of the week: at 59.5 over/under. Reminder: the Falcons play the Bucs this week in the battle of the trash defenses. I always advocate for waiting on QB, but this week I’ve taken Mahomes in the 3rd round each and every draft I could, and I have zero regrets. I suggest stacking Mahomes with Tyreek Hill whenever possible; they’re all the upside you could ever want.
High Upside: Jared Goff (LAR) vs Denver
Goff’s coming off his worst week of the season, throwing for just 321 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions vs Seattle in Week 5. That, and the uncertainty behind his top two receivers, Kupp and Cooks, clearing concussion protocol has Goff being passed up as a top 6 option this week. Goff, however, has finished as a Top 6 QB twice this season, and as a QB1 3 times. Denver has pulled in just 3 interceptions this season and has allowed 9 passing touchdowns. Denver got torched last week by the rookie Darnold; who is much less intimidating than Goff and the Rams offense. If you miss out on Mahomes or Ryan, wait it out until the end and roll with Goff-who will be in a more competitive game than I believe most expect on the road against a bitter division rival fighting for their playoff lives.
Do Not DRAFT: Kirk Cousins (MIN) vs Arizona
I rarely advocate against Cousins, especially when the match-up looks so juicy at first sight. Dig a little deeper, though, and you’ll see this match-up is more pulp than juice (unless you’re one of those people that like pulp, weirdo). The Cardinals have allowed the 2nd least passing touchdowns this season (5), with only the Jaguars allowing less. They’re also averaging just under an interception a game and find themselves ranked 14th in passing yards allowed. This is despite facing off against Jared Goff, Mitch Trubisky, and Russell Wilson. I still expect Cousins to be a QB1 this week, but I don’t think he’s worth taking in the top 6 of a format where upside means everything.
Favorite Play: Todd Gurley (LAR) vs Denver
Don’t think twice about taking Gurley 1st overall this week-heck, you barely have to think once to realize he’s the clear favorite. Gurley has scored at least 1 touchdown in every game this season, and has scored 3 touchdowns twice. He has at least 3 receptions, 30 receiving yards, and 70 total yards in every game, and has combined for 150 total yards twice. Denver has allowed the 2nd most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season (135 yards per game) and the 3rd most touchdowns (5). Bonus: Kamara is on BYE. Some weeks getting the first overall pick doesn’t mean as much, this week it gives you a huge advantage.
Upside Target: James White (NE) vs Kansas City
For some reason, we play in a fantasy football world where people still don’t realize that James White is a RB1. White has scored in 4 games this season (only being shutout by Jacksonville) and has found the endzone 5 times. He’s finished as a top 7 RB in each of the last two weeks (since White and Michel took full ownership of the Pats backfield). Wait, it gets better: Kansas City has allowed the most passing yards to opposing running backs this season (454 yards, 68 more yards than the next most allowed). They’ve also allowed the 3rd most receptions and 2nd most receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. That’s a ridiculously good combination for players keen on White: who has 18 receptions on 24 targets for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns the last two weeks. White has been around in the 4th and 5th round of every draft I’ve done so far this week-he is the type of player that will win you the week.
Do Not DRAFT: TJ Yeldon (JAX) vs Dallas
There’s a ton of buzz around Yeldon in fantasy football this week; as it appears he will serve as a long-term substitute for Fournette. Yeldon isn’t a fun substitute though, he’s not going to show you a movie or let you roam the halls without penalty. He’s a boring, yet effective one: he gets good volume, and yards but has a lack of upside. This is problematic, in general, for draft-but it’s even worse when you combine him with a tough match-up. Dallas has allowed just 3 rushing touchdowns and 0 receiving touchdowns to running backs in 5 games. They’ve allowed the 8th least fantasy points to opposing running backs so far; allowing just 69 yards per game on the ground. Yeldon is a trap; avoid the shiny name and dig deeper, even in the late rounds.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Favorite Play: Julio Jones (ATL) vs Tampa Bay
I know Julio frustrated you last week, he frustrated me too. Shake it off, though, because it doesn’t get much better than his Week 6 match-up. Tampa Bay has allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing wideouts this season. They’ve allowed 747 yards, and 9 touchdowns this season. Reminder: they’ve already had their BYE. That’s 2.5 touchdowns per game to opposing wideouts….it has to be the week, people; Julio will find the endzone. Julio has at least 5 receptions in every game this season and has two games with more than 150 yards. He’s an easy first rounder for those who miss out on the initial string of running backs that are likely to fill the top 3 picks.
Upside Target: Davante Adams (GB) vs San Francisco
Adams has slipped into at least the 4th round in all of my drafts so far this week. That leaves players with a ton of value when they click “draft” on WR5 in PPR formats. Adams has at least 7 receptions in every game since Week 2, has eclipsed 80 receiving yards three times, and has found the endzone 4 out of 5 times this season. The 49ers have allowed 812 yards 6 touchdowns to wide receivers this season; the 14th most. Green Bay is likely to have a high time of possession against a 49ers squad that will be without their starting quarterback, starting running back, and back-up running back. Adams has huge value if he’s sitting there in the 4th or 5th round.
Do Not DRAFT: Jarvis Landry (CLE) vs Los Angeles Chargers
Landry is a tempting play this week: he’s facing off against a surprisingly weak Chargers defense; they’ve allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing fantasy players this season. Landry, however, has too low of a ceiling to be a viable DRAFT pick. He’s caught more than 100 yards just twice this season (with a high of 106 yards) and has just one total touchdown on the season. He’s also been very inefficient: catching less than 50% of his targets in 4 of 5 games this season. It’s worth noting, also, that the Chargers’ defensive numbers are severely skewed by a Week 1 beatdown against Kansas City and a Week 3 shootout against the Rams. Plug him into your season-long line-ups all day, but leave him out of DRAFT.