Dynasty Mock Draft Series: May

The Dynasty Mock Draft Series is a collaborative set of articles sharing the results of mock drafts with dynasty analysts from across the fantasy football community. The full results, by round, are listed below. Each analyst that participated in this draft has their personal work hyperlinked to their description, please make sure to check out their individual work as long as all of the articles in this series. Following the second mock draft, we will also be tracking ADP, which you can find HERE.

Round 1: Gurley Falls, 1st Round Otherwise Chalk

Pick Player POS Team
1.01 Saquon Barkley RB NYG
1.02 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL
1.03 DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU
1.04 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
1.05 Alvin Kamara RB NO
1.06 Christian McCaffrey RB CAR
1.07 Davante Adams WR GB
1.08 Michael Thomas WR NO
1.09 Le’Veon Bell RB NYJ
1.10 Todd Gurley RB LAR
1.11 Melvin Gordon RB LAC
1.12 David Johnson RB ARI

For the most part, nothing was surprising about this mock’s 1st round. Every player here is justifiable as a 1st round pick. I would like to have seen Christian McCaffrey go top 5, but again, I can’t be mad at where anyone went. The thing that stuck out to me was Gurley falling to the back end as opposed to being top 5 in recent seasons. With constant news of an arthritic knee, Gurley is probably worrying many because that could affect longevity for the running back. It also doesn’t help that the Rams drafted (with high capital) a top back in the draft to, I’m assuming, keep him more fresh. At the very least, I don’t think we will see the workloads we’ve been used to seeing in the past which could maybe push him to early round 2. Matter of fact, I would not be surprised if we see him there by late summer, early fall. Groupthink is a killer and I could see that affecting his ADP.  

Christopher Nelson, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 2: Travis Kelce comes off the board 18th overall

Pick Player POS Team
2.01 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR PIT
2.02 Joe Mixon RB CIN
2.03 James Conner RB PIT
2.04 Julio Jones WR ATL
2.05 Mike Evans WR TB
2.06 Travis Kelce TE KC
2.07 Nick Chubb RB CLE
2.08 Antonio Brown WR OAK
2.09 Dalvin Cook RB MIN
2.10 Stefon Diggs WR MIN
2.11 Keenan Allen WR LAC
2.12 Amari Cooper WR DAL

The NFL’s tight end drought is a real thing and showed with Travis Kelce going with the sixth pick in the second round.  Kelce offers close to guaranteed high end production that not only is top 3 at the tight end position but would be a borderline top 12 WR.  Last season Kelce had a career high 103 receptions for 1336 yards and ten touchdown after having over 80 catches in both of the previous two seasons as well.

With the potential loss of Tyreek Hill, Kelce truly is the focal point of the offense and should see another year of huge volume. With a lot of question marks in the second round after the first couple picks Kelce gives a high floor as well as ceiling that could be a league winner adding almost guaranteed production to the most volatile position in fantasy football

Round 3: The Quarterback Seal Is Broken

Pick Player POS Team
3.01 Kenny Golladay WR DET
3.02 George Kittle TE SF
3.03 Patrick Mahomes QB KC
3.04 Adam Thielen WR MIN
3.05 T.Y. Hilton WR IND
3.06 Zach Ertz TE PHI
3.07 Leonard Fournette RB JAX
3.08 AJ Green WR CIN
3.09 Damien Williams RB KC
3.10 Brandin Cooks WR LAR
3.11 Kerryon Johnson RB DET
3.12 D.J. Moore WR CAR

The 3rd round of the draft was full of risky picks. Some guys choose the true upside plays (Damien Williams, Dj Moore, Leonard Fournette, Kenny Golladay), while others banked on aging veterans that hopefully still have a few good season left in the tank (TY Hilton, Aj Green). However, the most controversial pick was probably Patrick Mahomes going at 3.03 or 27th overall. Most fantasy vets will tell you that it’s best to wait on quarterback.

While this statement is completely valid in redraft, I think it’s slightly overrated in dynasty. If you could go back and draft Peyton or Rodgers in their early seasons for your dynasty teams, would you do it over a WR2 or a RB2? I think most would agree having Rodgers on their teams over the past decade would be much more beneficial than guys taken in the 3rd round in 2009…names like Darren McFadden, Anquan Boldin, Ronnie Brown, Ryan Grant and Marques Colston. Some of those listed players had periods of success but nothing like the prolonged success of Rodgers. I believe that Mahomes has that type of upside, maybe more.

Garret Price, Dynasty Nerds

Round 4: The Round of the (Young) Running Backs

Pick Player POS Team
4.01 Josh Jacobs RB OAK
4.02 Sony Michel RB NE
4.03 Marlon Mack RB IND
4.04 Derrick Henry RB TEN
4.05 Devonta Freeman RB ATL
4.06 Mark Ingram RB BAL
4.07 Aaron Jones RB GB
4.08 Phillip Lindsay RB DEN
4.09 Andrew Luck QB IND
4.10 Derrius Guice RB WAS
4.11 Robert Woods WR LAR
4.12 David Montgomery RB CHI

15 running backs were taken in rounds 1-3, which led to a mad dash in the 4th round-where another 10 went off the board. Jacobs (4.01) and Montgomery (4.12) were the first two rookie running backs off the board. Jacobs justifies his draft position with explosive traits, high NFL Draft capital, and the opportunity to immediately be a 3 down back for the Raiders. Montgomery has the ability to be what Jordan Howard never amounted to in a Matt Nagy offense, the same one that led to the breakout of Kareem Hunt during his rookie season.

It also features two sophomore running backs in Sony Michel (4.02) and Derrius Guice (4.10). Michel is coming off a hot finish to the 2018 season, but finds himself in a crowded backfield with the recently drafted Damien Harris along with James White and Rex Burkhead. Guice was an explosive player at LSU that had dynasty players excited last season, but a pre-season ACL injury has delayed us from seeing how he can translate to the NFL. Now he also finds himself in a crowded backfield with Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson to split volume with.

Matt Hicks, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 5: Taking an RB Outside of Top 50 is Risky

Pick Player POS Team
5.01 Eric Ebron TE IND
5.02 Kenyan Drake RB MIA
5.03 Miles Sanders RB PHI
5.04 Cooper Kupp WR LAR
5.05 Chris Godwin WR TB
5.06 Sammy Watkins WR KC
5.07 Julian Edelman WR NE
5.08 Calvin Ridley WR ATL
5.09 Tyler Boyd WR CIN
5.10 Deshaun Watson QB HOU
5.11 Mike Williams WR LAC
5.12 OJ Howard TE TB

The 5th round was book ended by TEs, Ebron (5.01) and O.J. Howard (5.12), great value for Howard as he went as our 5th TE at pick 60.  The real story is the tier drop for RBs and all of you Zero RB guys would have really felt that run on RBs round 5, 8 in a row and 10 out of 12 RBs.  Leaving only Kenyan Drake (5.2) and Myles Sanders (5.3) both teams RB2. One QB off of the board and that was Mr. DeShaun Watson 5.10, 3rd QB off of the board and no QBs were selected in round 6, maybe could have waited for the turn.

The meat of this round was the WRs, a little slotty with Edelman (5.7), Godwin (5.5), Boyd (5.9), and Kupp (5.4).  Watkins has been a riser and at 5.6 already as we await the Hill news, boom or bust pick. The last 2 guys produced 10 TDs a piece last year, Calvin Ridley (5.8) and Mike Williams (5.11).  Overall, no real big surprises and a lot of safe picks with high floors minus Watkins. Love the WR value this rain, do not like the way RBs fell at all. A little Rich for me with Ebron at 5.1 and Watson at 5.10.

Dynasty Dorks

Round 6: Steady Roster Fillers, with a Dash of Upside

Pick Player POS Team
6.01 Chris Carson RB SEA
6.02 Allen Robinson WR CHI
6.03 Jarvis Landry WR CLE
6.04 Alshon Jeffery WR PHI
6.05 Tarik Cohen RB CHI
6.06 Lamar Miller RB HOU
6.07 Dante Pettis WR SF
6.08 Hunter Henry TE LAC
6.09 James White RB NE
6.10 Kareem Hunt RB CLE
6.11 Tyler Lockett WR SEA
6.12 Robby Anderson WR NYJ

The sixth round of fantasy drafts is a time when the majority of high end, potential league winners have come off the board. If the right upside play is chosen, a player in the sixth could still make a huge impact on who controls the league, particularly in a dynasty format. But often owners opt to go in a safe direction to fill their starting lineups out. Players like Chris Carson, Allen Robinson, and Jarvis Landry fit the bill of players who are not that exciting to draft, but are competent players an owner can plug into a starting position and expect a solid contribution from on a weekly basis.

However, since this is a dynasty league mock draft and not a redraft league, I felt it was way too early for a guy like Lamar Miller. Almost 30 and in the final year of his contract, he should still be available in about round 10 of dynasty start up drafts. Kareem Hunt was one of the true boom-or-bust upside plays in the sixth round. Since he won’t be playing until week 9 this season (with an unknown future beyond 2019), it was earlier than I’m willing to take him, particularly with so many high upside players still on the board without the baggage. My choice of Dante Pettis is another boom-or-bust pick, as is the selection of Hunter Henry, but both could pay off big if those players pan out.

Kevin Scott, FanSided.com

Round 7: There, There. It’s Safe to Take a non-Barkley Giant, now

Pick Player POS Team
7.01 D.K. Metcalf WR SEA
7.02 Baker Mayfield QB CLE
7.03 N’Keal Harry WR NE
7.04 Evan Engram TE NYG
7.05 Tevin Coleman RB SF
7.06 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
7.07 Golden Tate WR NYG
7.08 Russell Wilson QB SEA
7.09 Tyreek Hill WR KC
7.10 Geronimo Allison WR GB
7.11 Rashaad Penny RB SEA
7.12 Sterling Shepard WR NYG

This is the round where our mock drafters decided to start taking chances. Rookies, a receiver that might not play in 2019, some upside-second fiddle running backs, and some high end quarterbacks all came off the board. The biggest surprise was that three New York Giants were selected in this round.

Evan Engram was the 7th Tight End to come off the board. This is a great place to grab Evan Engram. He has the potential to be a top 5 Tight End with the absence of OBJ and Eli Manning’s need to manage the ball when he doesn’t hand it off to Saquon. He will also have longevity and success at the position after Manning’s career ends.

Golden Tate or Sterling Shepard? They both went in this round and both could have seventh round value. At the very least, they will be Kings of Garbage Time in 2019. I selected Golden Tate over Sterling Shepard because of the same reasons why Engram should succeed. Eli will be looking for the shorter pass to manage the game. Tate’s yards-after-the-catch stats are an added bonus.

It’s clear that the members of this mock are the “wait on a QB” type because Baker Mayfield, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson would not last until the 7th round in our home/work leagues. I love all 3 of these picks here since all three are high end Quarterbacks and have several years left in their careers.

Finally, Tyreek Hill was selected near the end of the 7th round. Somebody was going to take the chance despite the likelihood that he doesn’t play for the season. If he does have a career after 2019, this pick will pay dividends! If not, the pick’s value isn’t high enough to consider it a waste. It’s worth the risk, although too early for me.

Marc Szymanski, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 8:  Corey Davis’ Slide Ends

Pick Player POS Team
8.01 Corey Davis WR TEN
8.02 Courtland Sutton WR DEN
8.03 Will Fuller WR HOU
8.04 Christian Kirk WR ARI
8.05 David Njoku TE CLE
8.06 LeSean McCoy RB BUF
8.07 T.J. Hockenson TE DET
8.08 Jerick McKinnon RB SF
8.09 Parris Campbell WR IND
8.10 Austin Hooper TE ATL
8.11 Marquise Brown WR BAL
8.12 Ito Smith RB ATL

We finally see Corey Davis get picked at 8.01, falling behind guys like Alshon Jeffery, Allen Robinson, Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate.  It is clear that fantasy players are becoming impatient with Davis and the rest of the Tennessee Titans. Between injuries, inconsistent QB play and an offensive scheme geared toward the run, Davis hasn’t been able to live up to the hype of being selected 5th overall in the 2017 NFL Draft.  However, if Mariota and the rest of this offense gets right this year, Davis definitely has the talent to be a significant value at this point. The rest of this round is filled with guys that I really like and have some nice upside due to talent or situation. Courtland Sutton, Will Fuller, Christian Kirk and Parris Campbell are guys that I believe are extremely talented and could be big time producers.

Mike Colaianne, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 9: Upside Running Backs Round

Pick Player POS Team
9.01 Justice Hill RB BAL
9.02 Royce Freeman RB DEN
9.03 D’Onta Foreman RB HOU
9.04 Dion Lewis RB TEN
9.05 Mecole Hardman WR KC
9.06 A.J. Brown WR TEN
9.07 Matt Ryan QB ATL
9.08 Jordan Howard RB PHI
9.09 Ronald Jones RB TB
9.10 Carlos Hyde RB KC
9.11 Noah Fant TE DEN
9.12 Carson Wentz QB PHI

The opening pick of round nine hinted that this might be the time more of the upside running backs would come off the board. Justice Hill was a wasted pick in redraft format because his health issues might delay his start to the 2019 season. Royce Freeman and D’Onta Foreman were the steals of this round with huge upside potential if they can win a larger share of the carries. Fantasy players infatuation with rookies over second or third years who had struggled came through loud and clear with rookie wide receiver picks. Matt Ryan was a steal in the ninth round as the 7th quarterback off the board.  

Dennis Michelsen, FlurrySports.org

Round 10: Filling in Needs with Good Teams

Pick Player POS Team
10.01 Darrell Henderson RB LAR
10.02 Tyrell Williams WR OAK
10.03 Vance McDonald TE PIT
10.04 Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT
10.05 James Washington WR PIT
10.06 Dede Westbrook WR JAX
10.07 Latavius Murray RB NO
10.08 Jaylen Samuels RB PIT
10.09 Drew Brees QB NO
10.10 Matt Breida RB SF
10.11 Nyheim Hines RB IND
10.12 Jameis Winston QB TB

Round 10 was one of the most balanced in terms of positions selected in the entire draft. There were 3 QBs, 5 RBs, 3 WRs and 1TE taken. Several players were selected in this round to fill in starting line-up requirements. Two QBs, Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston, were drafted with that purpose.  Winston especially has a great opportunity this season under Bruce Arians. He has tremendous upside for the 11th QB taken in the draft.

Personally, I used the strategy of waiting on a certain position until the 10th round. I grabbed my starting TE here as Vance McDonald was my highest ranked at the position still on the board.

Interestingly enough, there were four Steelers players drafted in the 10th round. In general, people were looking towards good NFL offenses in this round with teams like the Rams, the Saints, the 49ers, the Colts and the Buccaneers represented.

Kyle Senra, Full Press Coverage

Round 11: Youth, old and everything in between.

Pick Player POS Team
11.01 Philip RIvers QB LAR
11.02 Keke Coutee WR HOU
11.03 Curtis Samuel WR CAR
11.04 Jared Cook TE NO
11.05 Deebo Samuel WR SF
11.06 Hakeem Butler WR ARI
11.07 Jimmy Garoppolo QB SF
11.08 Cam Newton QB CAR
11.09 Mitch Trubisky QB CHI
11.10 Austin Ekeler RB LAC
11.11 Tre’Quan Smith WR NO
11.12 Marvin Jones WR DET

When you think of players that could be available in round 11, the first thought that might come to your mind is “blah”. But when you’re drafting with smart dudes, it’s a round that can help you win in year one of a start up league.

This round was filled with top end quarterbacks (Cam Newton, Philip Rivers), nice upside wide receivers (Curtis Samuel, Tre’Quan Smith, Marvin Jones), very interesting rookies (Deebo Samuel, Hakeem Butler) and a TE1 (Jared Cook).

Getting a guy like Newton, if healthy, seems like a steal in round 11. Curtis Samuel might be the #2 WR in Carolina for Newton, while Marvin Jones should benefit with no Golden Tate in town. Butler is someone who I really loved before the NFL Draft, but the landing spot brings up some questions. Cook comes off his first career pro bowl appearance and should produce another solid season in New Orleans.

My pick in this round was Smith. He had some monster games last season for the Saints and could see an uptick of targets with another great training camp in 2019. I went RB early (5 of my first 7 picks) in this mock, so I wanted to swing for the fences in my WR department. Smith fits that mold.

Anthony Zaragoza, Dynasty Football Factory

Round 12: Wide Receiver depth takes center stage.

Pick Player POS Team
12.01 Daesean Hamilton WR DEN
12.02 Jared Goff QB LAR
12.03 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
12.04 Devin Singletary RB BUF
12.05 Anthony Miller WR CHI
12.06 Kalen Ballage RB MIA
12.07 Devin Funchess WR IND
12.08 Josh Allen QB BUF
12.09 Emmanuel Sanders WR DEN
12.10 Kyler Murray QB ARI
12.11 Delanie Walker TE TEN
12.12 Mike Davis RB CHI

In the 12th and final round, it is apparent that prioritizing RB depth over WR depth should be prioritized in any startup. The remaining receivers that are still available at the end of this draft are far better than the remaining running backs. Just take those drafted in the 12th as an example. Devin Singletary, Kalen Ballage and Mike Davis are all facing an uphill battle for playing time. Whereas Daesean Hamilton, Larry Fitzgerald, Anthony Miller and Devin Funchess all have secured roles already in place. I ended my draft selecting Hamilton with the 12.01 as I firmly believe he has the chance to pace the Broncos in all major receiving categories this year. Flacco may not last all year with Drew Lock now on the team and I believe Lock and

Hamilton can grow together and begin to build chemistry with one another as early as this year. So at this point in the draft grabbing a guy like Hamilton who could end up as the top scoring receiver in Denver far outweighs grabbing a backup running back. This is why I would advocate to grab running backs early and utilize the insane receiver depth to your advantage to put your team in the best position to win this year and for years to come. Not to mention, more often than not, receiver is way deeper than running back in rookie drafts as well, so you can always look there to shore up your receiving corps if you go with a running back heavy approach in your startup.

Happy-Hour Fantasy, Gridiron Experts

Biggest Fantasy Impact: NFC Rookies

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: RB Tony Pollard

Dallas didn’t spend a ton of draft capital on offensive skill players.  The most significant skill player they invested in was Tony Pollard. Out of Memphis, Pollard is a patient runner that has great top end speed.  Pollard will initially contribute to the Cowboys as a kick and punt returner, but if he is given the opportunity, Pollard could be a nice change of pace back for Ezekiel Elliott.  Also, if your league gives points for return yards, Pollard definitely gets a bump.

Philadelphia Eagles: RB Miles Sanders

After acquiring Jordan Howard via trade, Philadelphia invested a 2nd round pick in Miles Sanders.  Sanders is the most talented and well rounded running back in this backfield. If Philadelphia can commit to Sanders and make him the primary running back, he can end up as a RB 2 as early as this season.  However, with Howard there and Philadelphia’s recent history, it’s hard to rely on the Eagles to give Sanders the desired workload this season.

Washington Redskins: QB Dwayne Haskins

I really like what Washington did in this draft.  Even though I am not a huge Dwayne Haskins fan, getting him at 15 without having to move up was great for Washington. Then they snag his OSU teammate Terry McLaurin and NC State standout Kelvin Harmon.  Haskins is easily the most talented QB in Washington. Even if he isn’t the Week 1 starter, Haskins should see the field this season and instantly add some juice to this offense.

New York Giants:  QB Daniel Jones

New York has been catching a lot of heat since they drafted Daniel Jones with the 6th overall pick in draft.  Jones looks the part of a franchise QB, but his film leaves a lot of the community hesitant to buy in. I really hope we are all wrong about Jones.  I would love for him to be able to come in after Eli Manning and be the starter for the New York Giants for the next 10 years. Regardless of what GM David Gettleman says, Jones should get the opportunity to play this year or next. If that is the case, it’s hard to imagine he would be worse for the fantasy options then Manning.  

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: TE Alize Mack

Considering Mack was drafted in the 7th round of the NFL Draft, this may be a bit of a stretch.  However, Mack does have some intriguing skills that could one day translate into fantasy production.  Mack has decent speed and works the seam pretty well. With time to develop under Sean Payton, Mack could maybe become a decent TE 2 for fantasy some day.  He shouldn’t be drafted in rookie draft, but could be a nice stash on your taxi squads.

Atlanta Falcons: iOL Chris Lindstrom and OT Kaleb McGary

Rather then trying to sell you all on Qadree Ollison and Marcus Green, I think it would be better to talk about the 2 first round lineman Atlanta drafted.  Getting Lindstrom and trading up for McGary shows us that Atlanta is going to continue trying to improve the run game. Both guys are very good run blockers and will help Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith out of the backfield.  The lack of significant draft capital spent at running back says that Atlanta still has faith in Freeman.

Carolina Panthers: QB Will Grier

I am a huge Will Grier fan and really like the fit for Carolina.  Obviously Grier won’t be an immediate starter, but Grier is instantly a premier backup QB.  And who knows, if Cam Newton’s shoulder is really messed up, Grier can do enough to keep the offensive weapons in Carolina fantasy relevant.  If Newton continues to take hits and misses significant time, I would feel very comfortable having Grier as a QB 2.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  WR Scott Miller

Similar to New Orleans, Tampa Bay spent most of the draft improving their defense.  The only offensive player they picked was Scott Miller in the 6th round. Miller is undersized, but has a ton of speed. He may be a nice field stretcher, but I don’t think he’s even worth a spot on a taxi squad.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: RB David Montgomery

I absolutely love this fit for both Montgomery and Chicago.  For whatever reason, I’ve heard way to many people saying that Montgomery is just a slightly better Jordan Howard.  Montgomery has more talent and is way more versatile than Howard. Montgomery is the best pure runner on this roster and is lined up to be the primary 2 down back for Chicago. Montgomery showed solid pass catching chops and will also be able to contribute in the passing game. Be excited people! Montgomery is going to be a stud in Chicago.

Minnesota Vikings: TE Irv Smith Jr.

See ya later Kyle Rudolph! Irv Smith is the new sheriff in Minnesota.  With Kyle Rudolph being owed over $7 million and no guaranteed money left, it is looking like Rudolph will be cut before the 2019 season starts.  If that is the case, Smith will have the opportunity to start producing right away. Smith is a big, athletic target that should be a great fit in this offense.  

Green Bay Packers: TE Jace Sternberger

Jace Sternberger is a staff favorite over here at the Fantasy Fanalysts.  He plays tight end, but in all honesty, he’s more like a big bodied wide receiver. Sternberger has reliable hands and shows a lot of promise as a route runner. He may not have a ton of production his rookie season, but Sternberger definitely has potential to become a low end TE1.  

Detroit Lions: TE TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson is the best tight end out of this class.  On top of being great as a receiver, Hockenson is a wonderful blocker.  Hockenson plays with the type of energy and attitude that everybody loves.  His ability to block will allow him to be on the field every down and start contributing right away. When ranking him for dynasty purposes, Hockenson is already a top 12 tight end.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams: RB Darrell Henderson

I was/am a huge Darrell Henderson fan.  He is extremely quick, is a capable pass catcher and had a ton of production while at Memphis.  I don’t think Los Angeles invests an early 3rd round pick on a running back unless they are at least slightly concerned with Todd Gurley’s knee.  I expect Henderson to take some of Gurley’s workload and have a ton of upside if Gurley were to ever miss time.

Seattle Seahawks: WR DK Metcalf

This was a great fit for DK Metcalf.  Russell Wilson is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL and is going to find ways to get Metcalf the ball.  Even if the Seattle offense is run heavy, Metcalf showed that he can produce on limited targets. Metcalf has one of the highest ceilings in this class.  If he can come close to reaching that ceiling, he is going to be a stud in this league.

San Francisco 49ers: WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel is possibly the most exciting prospect in this class when he has the ball in his hands.  He has good speed and is great after contact. With George Kittle and Dante Pettis returning, it’s hard to tell how much Samuel will produce right away.  If given the opportunity, Samuel has the talent to be a WR 2 for fantasy purposes.

Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray

As it was speculated for months, Arizona picked Kyler Murray with the 1st overall pick in the NFL draft.  On top of that, Arizona drafted Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler and KeeSean Johnson. Murray has the talent, the weapons and hopefully the scheme with Kliff Klingsbury to be a big time fantasy producer.  With his arm talent and athleticism, I don’t think it is to crazy to think that Murray could be a top 12 QB in 2019. This Arizona offense has the chance to be extremely fun.

Preeminent vs The Undistinguished: Ranking Rookie Quarterbacks

Welcome to my rookie rankings based on my recent article detailing differences between prospects drafted in round 1-5 versus 6-7+UDFA! I figured out an interesting way to not only help everyone draft more successful teams, but to know how to value positions a little better going forward.

To get the breakdown you can visit the previous article here which has the thread that started it all as well.

New Users get a FREE $3 Entry with promo Code “TOP2”

I’m Going to Let You Finish but First…

Before I begin, I’d like to add a little more detail into the success of the QB position. Quarterback has less success than any other fantasy skill position (QB, WR, TE, RB). The twitter thread discussed rounds 6-7/UDFAs but what about the other rounds?

In the last 10 years, only 9 quarterbacks not drafted in the first round have averaged at least 184 fantasy points per season, in standard quarterback scoring formats. 184 fantasy points is equal to the average QB24 finish in that same time span-meaning that just the following players have become fantasy football relevant without being drafted in the first round:

RoundName
2Andy Dalton
2Colin Kaepernick
2Derek Carr
2Geno Smith
3Russell Wilson
3Nick Foles
3Jacoby Brissett
4Dak Prescott
4Kirk Cousins

No quarterback drafted after round 4 has become fantasy football relevant over the past 10 seasons.

With that being said, it tempers my expectations when ranking my quarterbacks. This isn’t to say I’m counting them out or they’re not in a good spot, it’s just part of how I value said player.

Before I get into these ranks. I don’t do all-inclusive ranks because whenever you draft, it’s all about NEED. Best available at each position is how I do things. Sure, some drafts you just take best available, but it’s just common practice for me to rank everyone separate. Also, these ranks factor in landing spot, draft stock and depth chart.

The Preeminent Tier

RankRoundNameTeam
11Kyler MurrayCardinals
21Dwayne HaskinsRedskins
32Drew LockBroncos
4 1Daniel JonesGiants
53Will GrierPanthers
64Jarrett StidhamPatriots
73Ryan FinleyBengals

The Undistinguished Tier

86Easton StickChargers
96Clayton ThorsonEagles
106Gardner MinshewJaguars
116Trace McSorelyRavens
12UDFATyree JacksonBills
13UDFABrett RypienBroncos
14UDFAJordan Ta’amuRaiders
15UDFAJacob DolegalaBengals
16UDFADavid BloughBrowns
17UDFAKyle ShurmurChiefs
18UDFADevlin HodgesSteelers

You may not be drafting the “undistinguished” as starters but what I do see, is that guys like these will be great spot starts when the starters go down. Some of them will need a good matchup too, but like I said, “dont count them out”. As always with this tier, leave them on waivers or stash them for rainy day “break if nececssary” type situations.

Next Time On the Preeminent vs the Undistinguished….

We’ll be getting into tight ends!

Opportunity vs Ability: NFL Smarts in Rookie Drafts

We all know a kid sometime in our past who had all the talent in the world, but never made it. It could’ve been due to many different circumstances like money for college, more important responsibility at home, couldn’t stay out of trouble and so on. It still doesn’t change the fact that sometimes people just miss out.

In terms of the NFL, you have to add in the fact that every scouting department isn’t created equally and even if they were, they don’t make the choices. The ones choosing could be sold on someone who is just terrible compared to other guys, but there’s nothing we can do about it. The only things we can do is hedge those decisions for fantasy, which is what I’m here to help you do.

Opportunity’s Call

When dealing with fantasy football we like to have guys who have a huge opportunity share in the offense (or defense with IDP leagues). History shows we have to be the same with our rookie drafts.

Here’s why you should, for the most part, avoid guys (with your high picks) drafted in the 6-7 rounds and undrafted free agent pools:

In last 10 years, here are some of the hits for 6-7 rounders and UDFAs. From a recent conversation I had, I decided to change it from an all inclusive 100 PPR points or 6.25 ppg, to position specific. My baseline for success for each position was someone you’d be flexing or starting in most leagues.

Quarterbacks (3 year average of the QB24 = 184 points)

7 QBs have had success in rounds 6-7 with only 4 out of the 7 having done it more than once:

Tom Brady, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor and Matt Cassel

The UDFA to accomplish this feat:

Tony Romo, Case Keenum and Kurt Warner.

Wide Receivers (3 year average of the WR36 = 166 points)

6 receivers have done it with only 4 out of 6 having done it more than once:

Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon & Steve Johnson.

20 UDFAs did it with just 9 of them doing it more than once. The most notable:

Wes Welker, Doug Baldwin, Victor Cruz, Adam Thielen, and Willie Snead

Michelle Magdziuk @BallBLastEm made a great observation that cannot be over looked:

Running Backs (3 year average of the RB36 = 134 points)

9 running backs were a RB36 or better and only 6 of them did it more than once:

Rashad Jennings, Alfred Morris, Latavius Murray, Theo Riddick, Andre Ellington, and Justin Forsett

The undrafted accomplished this 22 times with 12 having continued success:

Fred Jackson, Isaiah Crowell, Adrian Foster, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead, C.J. Anderson, Joique Bell, LeGarette Blount, Chris Ivory, Ryan Grant, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Mike Tolbert

Tight Ends (3 year average of the TE24 = 93 points)

The TEs that have done it:

Charles Clay, Zach Miller, Brandon Myers, Mychal Rivera, and Ryan Griffin

The only undrafted free agents to do it:

Antonio Gates, Cameron Brate, Jack Doyle, Will Tye, Jake Ballard, Trey Burton, Larry Donnell, and Tim Wright

It’s simple, if the TEAM invests in them, WE have to invest accordingly. The caveat here is that you don’t forget about the late round/UDFA guys.

Allen Iverson’s Law: Talkin’ Bout Practice

One of the best practices is the utilization of your local taxi squad IF you have the room or regular roster if you have the spots. If through the draft process, you found a guy or guys whom you’ve just become enamored with, GO GET THEM. Don’t be dissuaded from getting your guys, just utilize your own draft capital for guys with true draft capital. This is because on average, for every position except quarterback, 1-2 guys per year emerge from that murky junkyard of 6-7 rounders and undrafted free agents to become PPR relevant at least once. Some of these guys end up with long term success, A LOT don’t.

A Rule of Thumb:

There is a much bigger area for “boom-bust” in 6-7/udfa areas than rounds 1-5.

Which is why I believe that these guys are sometimes better served for waivers later on. If they don’t end up free agents in your league, it’s ok. Let someone hold onto your asset for you until it’s time to obtain. Once that player starts tracking for success, you have to act before the price raises or otherwise you over pay in a trade vs making that asset a throw in for an otherwise “underwhelming” trade in the eyes of everyone but you. It’s all about timing. The trick is to not go in to negotiations showing your hand and you’ll be just fine.

Another good practice is to grab these guys when an injury happens to guys ahead of them on the depth chart. This is generally a key time where they can begin to be able to garner more snap counts (time on the field) if they perform well enough.

Going Forward

My pinned thread from Twitter and this article are just a warm-up for a series of articles and rankings so, be on the lookout for those, which will come directly after this.

A small hint to my ranking content-they will be different than you’ve seen before! Hopefully this has helped you prepare for your rookie drafts, stay tuned!

Biggest Fantasy Football Impact Pick: AFC

Now that the draft is over, we finally have landing spots for some of our favorite rookies! Today we’re going to go through each AFC team to find each rookie who will have the biggest impact when it comes to fantasy. Some will have instant impact, some will have small impact, while some will have sneaky impact. Let’s get started!

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Marquise Brown, WR

Brown’s ability to separate from defenders with his sheer athleticism (wont be winning with size) will make him a great weapon for Lamar Jackson. Look for him to be a better John Brown and when Jackson looks to throw, he’ll have a very dependable target to throw to. Brown makes defenses have to respect his ability and opens it up for Jackson and Mark Ingram.

Cincinnati Bengals: The RBs

They drafted (albeit 6th rounders) Rodney Anderson and Traveon Williams while Mark Walton was waived, so I believe this was a depth move with sleeper potential. I have a feeling that one of these guys could end up working into both Bernard and/or Mixon’s workload. This could kill off some production and cause these guys to drop in value as well.

Cleveland Browns: The Defense

Cleveland really hit this draft for defense and it’s ok because they are absolutely well off in the offensive department. With that being said, Cleveland really bolstered their defense and gave their team a chance to have a great D/ST (yes I play in leagues that still use this position). With their team already in the bottom 5, the only way is up!

Pittsburgh Steelers: Diontae Johnson, WR

Already being anointed as the new #84, Diontae Johnson definitely has the ability and draft stock to come in and contribute immediately. He gives the Steelers a piece for the future alongside Juju and Washington. Yes Moncrief is there, but he’ll be losing snaps to this kid before long. He’s great against the press and should be being drafted in dynasty for sure. He’s definitely got sleeper impact.

AFC South

Houston Texans: Kahale Warring, TE

Warring did himself a world of justice throughout the draft process and ended up going very high in a draft thick with TE talent. With the team already having a few tight ends on the roster already, this was a head-scratcher. With his draft stock, it definitely means he’s here to stay and others will be waived. As far as fantasy goes, he just makes this offense a TE by committee further pushing us away from Houston TEs.

Indianapolis Colts: Parris Campbell, WR

This is one of the best places he could go. Not much competition for WR2, Campbell comes in as an immediate contributor. He should eventually be able to sully Funchess’ value toward mid-late season (if it takes that long). He also makes Luck an even more enticing selection with what he can accomplish in the slot as well as outside (contrary to popular belief).

Jacksonville Jaguars: Josh Oliver, TE

Definitely a project, but I project him as the TE1 in Jacksonville eventually. Geoff Swaim ain’t it and Josh Oliver can be on par with the top TEs in this class if he can learn how to block better. Could be the AFC’s Jason Witten; good across the middle of the field and no (and I mean no) high point ability whatsoever.

Tennessee Titans: AJ Brown, WR

A bit of a scary landing spot given who his QB is, AJ Brown impacts both Mariota and Corey Davis. The Titans don’t really have anybody outside of Davis who are difference makers at the level of AJ. Delanie was in the past, but father time is undefeated and that injury at his age will have it’s effects. Corey Davis will no longer have so much focused on him to stop him which boosts his value. The only thing is hoping that Mariota (like Lamar Jackson) can throw the ball a little more next season.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Dawson Knox, TE

I’m going to try and contain myself here, but I believe he could end up top 2 in this draft at the position. Buffalo just got a great weapon for Josh Allen who is an upgrade from Croom and will eventually supplant Kroft. With TEs, the rule is to wait and wait we shall. Don’t be filled with regret for not drafting him. He’s got draft stock, a clear path to start and a young QB to grow with. He’s going to be one of the best parts of this offense in a few years, just watch.

Miami Dolphins: Josh Rosen, QB

Josh isn’t a rookie, but was the best offensive asset they acquired in the draft. Still young and talented, he goes into a situation where he’s got a chance to take the keys and go. He (and Fitzpatrick when he plays) are an immediate boost for the receivers in Miami which excites me even more for my Gesicki shares.

New England Patriots: N’Keal Harry, WR

I was/am still not high on the kid after studying his game tape, but he will definitely produce/be given the opportunity to produce. Harry represents something the Pats haven’t done since 1996, draft a WR in the 1st round. I see him having the same success that Josh Gordon was having, but I don’t expect it to be immediate. I expect it to really start to show in year 2.

New York Jets: Trevon Wesco, TE

No, he’s not the guy you’re drafting in rookie drafts, he’s the guy who excites you for the sake of Darnold and Lev Bell. With the Jets already having drafted Chris Herndon in the same round last year, they brought in a TE who is much better at all the blocking aspects. Keep an eye out for his developing catching ability, could surprise in his production there which could put Herndon behind him on the depth chart. However, don’t expect anything for a few years. He’s more of a project who will possibly blossom in years 4-5.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: Noah Fant, TE

Already announced the starter, Fant has a chance to be the most productive rookie TE this year. I believe he’ll get the opportunities early and often purely because of his skill as a receiver. I don’t, however, think he’ll be a top TE overall this year. It’s hard for rookies to come by production at this position early on in their careers. With Fant, it’ll be no different unless Manny Sanders, Daesean Hamilton and Courtland Sutton suffer significant injuries reminiscent of the 2017 Giants with Engram.

Kansas City Chiefs: Mecole Hardman, WR

The Chiefs went out and got their possible replacement speedster for the same role of Tyreek Hill. If Hill is waived, suspended or both, Hardman will step into that role. I don’t expect the production right away, but man will he have breakaway plays that will drop your jaw. He essentially could be a less consistent Hill. My notes on him from film are filled with the words FAST in all capital letters so expect an electric player. He’s also good at finding an assignment to block which will keep him on the field a little more.

Oakland Raiders: Josh Jacobs, RB

He WAS my RB2 coming into the draft behind David Montgomery, but now his situation has “vaulted” him into first place. He’s a lead back and he’ll get the chance to prove that with Crowell going down for the season. The Doug Martin signing is a depth play while Jalen Richard shouldn’t see too much 3rd down work over Jacobs, who can catch well. Chris Warren is great, but doesn’t have the draft stock to give me faith that he’ll do anything but be a backup. Jacobs has the stock, the ability and the full faith of the team, what more could you want?

LA Chargers: Defense…Again

For those of you who play with D/STs in your lineups, rejoice, for this is what you want in your drafts. A team that was already great in terms of defense got better by loading up on defensive players like Jerry Tillery and Nasir Adderley. I can’t really say Easton Stick here because 5th round QBs have a nauseating success rate. With Rivers looking to re-up like Big Ben did for at least 3 more years, I’d say he ends up a gadgety (rumors of Taysom Hill usage) 3rd stringer behind Tyrod.