Welcome to my rookie rankings based on my recent article detailing differences between prospects drafted in rounds 1-5 versus 6-7+UDFA! I figured out an interesting way to not only help everyone draft more successful teams, but to know how to value positions a little better going forward.
The Right Formula
In continuing the studying of the effects that draft stock has on fantasy production, I’m learning a lot. Undrafted free agent running backs seem to be the safest low capital guys (RDs 6-7/UDFA) to use later picks on as they have more than double the success rate of any other position (in the last 10 yrs). What that means:
They are more frequently having seasons to which they rank in the top half at the position in PPR (21 times).
On average, between 2-3 UDFA rbs could emerge at least for one season, every season.
The next closest position to have success didn’t even crack double digits (WR-9)
Due to this, I’ve taken the liberty of opening my top tier of RBs to 2 UDFAs as well as one 6th rounder. These 3 guys all have good situations and the talent to make the most of it all. They are my best choices for breakouts from this current crop of low stock guys.
Before I get into these ranks. I don’t do all-inclusive ranks because whenever you draft, it’s all about NEED. Best available at each position is how I do things. Sure, some drafts you just take best available, but it’s just common practice for me to rank everyone separate. Also, these ranks factor in landing spot, draft stock and depth chart.
Note: The reason these are numbered in the 100s is just to distinguish them from the other tier.
You may not be drafting the “undistinguished” as starters but what I do see, is that guys like these will be great spot starts when the starters go down. Some of them will need a good matchup too, but like I said, “don’t count them out”. As always with this tier, leave them on waivers or stash them for rainy day “break if necessary” type situations.