Sat. Oct 19th, 2019

The Fantasy Fanalysts

For the Love of the Game.

The Preeminent vs The Undistinguished: Running Backs

3 min read

Welcome to my rookie rankings based on my recent article detailing differences between prospects drafted in rounds 1-5 versus 6-7+UDFA! I figured out an interesting way to not only help everyone draft more successful teams, but to know how to value positions a little better going forward.

The Right Formula

In continuing the studying of the effects that draft stock has on fantasy production, I’m learning a lot. Undrafted free agent running backs seem to be the safest low capital guys (RDs 6-7/UDFA) to use later picks on as they have more than double the success rate of any other position (in the last 10 yrs). What that means:

They are more frequently having seasons to which they rank in the top half at the position in PPR (21 times).

On average, between 2-3 UDFA rbs could emerge at least for one season, every season.

The next closest position to have success didn’t even crack double digits (WR-9)

Due to this, I’ve taken the liberty of opening my top tier of RBs to 2 UDFAs as well as one 6th rounder. These 3 guys all have good situations and the talent to make the most of it all. They are my best choices for breakouts from this current crop of low stock guys.

Before I get into these ranks. I don’t do all-inclusive ranks because whenever you draft, it’s all about NEED. Best available at each position is how I do things. Sure, some drafts you just take best available, but it’s just common practice for me to rank everyone separate. Also, these ranks factor in landing spot, draft stock and depth chart.

The Preeminent

1Josh JacobsRaiders1
3David MontgomeryBears2
2Miles SandersEagles3
3Darrell HendersonRams4
3Devin SingletaryBills5
3Alexander MattisonVikings6
5Ryquell ArmsteadJaguars7
4Benny SnellSteelers8
5Jordan ScarlettPanthers9
UDFAJames WilliamChiefs10
6Rodney AndersonBengals11
UDFABruce AndersonBucs12
4Bryce Love Redskins13
4Justice HillRavens14
4Tony PollardCowboys15
3Damien HarrisPatriots16
5Qadree OllisonFalcons17

Note: The reason these are numbered in the 100s is just to distinguish them from the other tier.

The Undistinguished

UDFAElijah HolyfieldPanthers18
6Trayveon Williams Bengals19
UDFADarrin HallBrowns20
7Myles GaskinDolphins21
7Kerrith WhyteBears22
7Mike WeberCowboys23
6Darwin ThompsonChiefs24
6Dexter Williams Packers25
6Travis HomerSeahawks26
6Ty JohnsonLions27
UDFADamarea CrockettTexans28
UDFAJordan EllisBengals29
UDFANick BrossettePatriots30
UDFANico EvansEagles31
UDFADevine OzigboSaints32
UDFALJ ScottRavens33
UDFATravon McMillanSteelers34
UDFAAlex BarnesTitans35
UDFAMarquis YoungColts36
UDFAMatt ColburnRams37
UDFAKaran HigdonTexans38
UDFAJalin MooreJets39
UDFAK’Hari BlassingameVikings40
UDFAPatrick LairdDolphins41
UDFAAca’Cedrick WareRedskins42
UDFAWes HillsSeahawks43
UDFALance DunnRams44
UDFAJohn SantiagoVikings45

You may not be drafting the “undistinguished” as starters but what I do see, is that guys like these will be great spot starts when the starters go down. Some of them will need a good matchup too, but like I said, “don’t count them out”. As always with this tier, leave them on waivers or stash them for rainy day “break if necessary” type situations.

Finally On the Preeminent vs the Undistinguished….

We’ll have wide receivers rounding us out!

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