Sat. Oct 19th, 2019

The Fantasy Fanalysts

For the Love of the Game.

The Preeminent vs The Undistinguished: Wide Receivers

3 min read

Welcome to my rookie rankings based on my recent article detailing differences between prospects drafted in round 1-5 versus 6-7+UDFA! I figured out an interesting way to not only help everyone draft more successful teams, but to know how to value positions a little better going forward.

To get the breakdown you can visit the previous article here which has the thread that started it all as well.

Bringing the 1-2 Punch

Where running backs have a high hit rate in almost every round, receivers are very top heavy. Over the last 10 years, receivers have the biggest concentration of success in the first 2 rounds. After that, no other round has more than 10 guys to actually hit.

My baseline for this breakdown is the 3 year average of the WR18 in points per reception (ppr) scoring over a span of 10 years. What this ended up being is 13ppg or 208 PPR points overall.

RoundAmount
124
221
38
4Brandon Marshall, Mike Williams (TBB), Brandon Lloyd
5Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Marvin Jones
6Antonio Brown, Pierre Garçon
74
UDFA9

This Class Is Better Than You Think

I would say that there is a rhyme or reason to why i think this UDFA/6-7 round class is going to outproduce history, but there isn’t. All I have is this gut feeling and oh, an unhealthy obsession with Kelvin Harmon, Bruce Anderson and others. Besides that, I’ve literally poured over hours of game tape for over 100+ RB/WR prospects and I refuse to believe that this class is as terrible as most people say. With that in mind, here are the Preeminent and the Undistinguished!

The Preeminent

RoundNameTeamRank
2Dekaylin MetcalfSeahawks1
1N’Keal HarryPatriots2
2Parris CampbellColts3
2AJ BrownTitans4
2Andy IsabellaCardinals5
1Marquise BrownRavens6
2Deebo Samuel49ers7
2JJ Arcega-WhitesideEagles8
3Jalen Hurd49ers9
2Mecole HardmanChiefs10
3Diontae JohnsonSteelers11
3Terry McLaurinRedskins12
4Hakeem ButlerCardinals13
6Kelvin HarmonRedskins14
4Gary JenningsSeahawks15
3Miles BoykinRavens16
5Hunter RenfrowRaiders17
4Riley RidleyBears18
5Darius SlaytonGiants19
UDFAJakobi MeyersPatriots20
UDFADamarkus LodgeBuccaneers21
6Juwann WinfreeBroncos22

The Undistinguished

RoundNameTeamRank
UDFAEmmanuel HallBears23
6Keesean JohnsonCardinals24
UDFALil’Jordan HumphreySaints25
UDFAAntoine WesleyRavens26
UDFAKeelan Doss Raiders27
UDFAJamal CustisChiefs28
UDFAAshton DulinColts29
6Scott MillerBuccaneers30
7Dillon MitchellVikings31
UDFAAnthony JohnsonBuccaneers32
UDFAGreg DortchJets33
UDFADavid Sills VBills34
7Terry GodwinPanthers35
UDFARyan DavisPatriots36
UDFAPenny HartColts37
UDFAEmmanuel ButlerSaints38
UDFAFelton Davis Chiefs39
UDFAJonathan DuhartLions40
UDFAOlamide ZaccheausFalcons41
UDFARon’Quavion TarverBears42
UDFAShawn Pointdexter49ers43
UDFACody ThompsonChiefs44
7Olabisi JohnsonVikings45
6Travis FulghamLions46
UDFAPapi WhiteJaguars47
UDFAPreston WilliamsDolphins48
UDFATyre BradyJaguars49
UDFAJon’Vea JohnsonCowboys50
UDFAKelvin McknightBroncos51
UDFAStanley Morgan Jr.Bengals52
UDFAJeff SmithJets53
6Marcus GreenFalcons54
7John UrsuaSeahawks55
UDFAXavier UbosiPatriots56
UDFANick EasleyBills57
UDFATyron JohnsonTexans58
UDFAJohnnie DixonTexans59
UDFAJazz FegusonSeahawks60
UDFAAnthony Ratliff-WilliamsTitans61
UDFAAlex WesleyGiants62
UDFAJovon DuranteSeahawks63
UDFAFlynn NagelGiants64

I hope this is the most in-depth rankings you’ve seen. We can’t forget about anyone. I want you to be able to come out of this article at least knowing names so when the time comes, you know who these guys are. When it comes to dynasty, you can never be too prepared!

What’s Next?

What I plan on doing is releasing a google sheet with my rankings from this series for those who want to see them altogether. Besides that, keep on the lookout for plenty more content here on the website, my twitter @THEffVigilante and Instagram @the_o.f.i.s! Stay vigilant my friends!

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