Tue. Nov 19th, 2019

The Fantasy Fanalysts

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2019 Fantasy Football Offensive Situation Power Rankings

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This article provides insight on the best offensive situations NFL players can find themselves in. The below power rankings are compiled based on an average score of 10 metrics. 9 of those metrics take into account production and efficiency numbers from the 2018 season. The 2 other metrics are an average of PFF’s current rating for all starting offensive linemen and 2019 strength of schedule, according to FantasyPros. When I refer to efficiency in this article, I am most likely referring to the DVOA metric compiled by Football Outsiders. The metrics do not account for coaching changes, crowded depth charts, or other news. I do comment on them, when necessary in the description for each team.

These power rankings can help guide the potential for success a fantasy football player has. The better the offensive situation the more upside a player has.

32. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals finished last in the NFL in points per game, red zone attempts, and offensive efficiency in 2018. They are currently relying on a rookie quarterback, 2 rookie wide outs, 1 sophomore wideout, and Kliff Kingsbury to revitalize their offense. If the fired Texas Tech air-raid coach is going to turn Arizona around, it won’t be quickly-he still has the 3rd worst offensive line in the NFL.

31. Miami Dolphins

The dolphins were second worst in the league in pace of play, red zone attempts, and total yards in 2018. They replaced offensive minded Adam Gase with defensive focused Brian Flores. The Dolphins showed an intent to invest in a long-term rebuild, focused around defense when they drafted Christian Wilkins with their 1st round pick in the 2091 NFL Draft.

30. New York Jets

The Jets had a decent pace of play in 2018 (17th in the league) but struggled when they got into the end zone. They finished 27th in the NFL in red zone scoring. The Jets are on an upward trajectory, though, with Darnold entering his second year and the additions of Le’Veon Bell, Jamison Crowder, and head coach Adam Gase.

29. Oakland Raiders

The Raiders finished in the bottom third of the NFL in all 8 of the metrics which directly reflect 2018 offensive production and efficiency. Their highest metric is offensive line, but the addition of Tom Cable hurts more than it helps them in that category. The Raiders also face the 3rd toughest schedule in 2019.

28. Buffalo Bills

The Bills will likely rise in these rankings once the 2019 season begins. They struggled to produce through a variety of injuries in 2018, highlighted by their finish with the 3rd least points in the NFL. The Bills were 29th in the NFL in redzone attempts but they were 16th in redzone scoring percentage, which is encouraging.

27. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars finished last in touchdowns per game last season, a metric particularly crucial to fantasy football players. They also finished 27th in total yards. The silver lining: they have the easiest strength of schedule in 2019.

26. Tennessee Titans

The Titans played slow last season; 28th in pace on play. That was likely do to the health of Marcus Mariota, but they failed to finished outside of the bottom 3rd of any efficiency or production metric in 2018. Tennessee has assembled the 11th highest rated offensive line for 2019.

25. Washington

Washington finished in as one of the 5 worst teams in the NFL in: plays per game, points per game, touchdowns per game, and red zone attempts in 2019. A rookie quarterback and an uninspiring corps. of wide receivers doesn’t suggest a large jump is coming for them in 2019.

24. Detroit Lions

The Lions ran a lot of plays in 2018 (11th most in the league) but finished with the 24th most yards and 25th most points per game in 2018. They have an uphill battle to improve those numbers: the Lions have the 4th most difficult strength of schedule in 2019.

23. San Francisco 49ers

This is a team I fully expect to jump in the rankings as we get into 2019. After losing their starting quarterback and running back early in 2018 they finished last in the league in redzone scoring, 24th in total yards, and 25th in touchdowns per game.

Health, an active off season, an aggressive draft, and the 12th highest rated offense in 2019 should help them bounce back.

22. Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals didn’t move the ball well in 2018 (26th in total yards) but were 3rd best in the league in scoring once they got into the redzone. New head coach Zac Taylor, from the McVay coaching tree, could inspire a more productive offense in 2019.

21. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas had the 6th least efficient offense in 2018. They finished 23rd in touchdowns per game and 21st in points per game. They face the 11th easiest strength of schedule in 2019, though, and have the 10th best offensive line going into 2019.

20. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings offense was one of the most disappointing units for fantasy football players in 2018. Their struggles centered around their offensive line, which remains 5th worst in the NFL going into the 2019 season.

19. Lost Angeles Chargers

The Chargers were extremely efficient (3rd best) in 2018. They finished 6th in points per game and 8th in touchdowns per game, despite also finishing last in pace of pace. Their ranking here is also weighed down by having the 3rd hardest strength of schedule and 5th worst offensive line going into 2019.

18. Denver Broncos

The Broncos had the 2nd quickest pace of play in 2018 but finished 24th in points per game and 19th in total yards. They are aided by the 9th easiest strength of schedule in 2019 and investments in their offensive line pushes them up to 18th best heading into 2019.

17. New York Giants

The Giants saw the 12th most red zone opportunities in 2018, but finished 5th worst at converting those into scores. Their ranking is higher than one would likely expect because of additions to their offensive line, which is now 8th best in the NFL.

16. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are known for being a “boring” offensive team, highlighted by running the 10th fewest plays per game in 2018. Still, they finished with the 7th most points per game and the 6th most touchdowns per game in 2018. Their offensive line in ranked 24th best in the NFL, which could hinder the breakout seasons many fantasy football players are hoping for.

15. Houston Texans

The Texans finished top 10 in the NFL in pace of play, plays ran per game, and red zone attempts in 2018. They also drew the 3rd easiest strength of schedule in 2019. They have dynamic fantasy football players but will continue to be held back by the worst offensive line ranking in the NFL.

14. Cleveland Browns

The Browns were the 17th most efficient offense in the NFL last season, and the 8th most efficient when weighted for how they played toward the end of last season. This reflects the mid-season promotion of now permanent head coach Freddy Kitchens. The Browns also finished 13th in total yards and 14th in touchdowns per game in 2018.

13. Chicago Bears

The Bears finished 3rd to last in pace of play in 2018. Despite that they finished 10th in points per game, 11th of touchdowns per game, and 11th in red zone scoring. They have the 9th best offensive line rating and pulled the 4th easiest strength of schedule for 2019.

12. Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia had the 11th most red zone attempts in 2018, and had the 17th highest scoring percentage in the redzone. They have the 3rd highest rated offense line in the league and the 5th easiest strength of schedule to look forward to in 2019.

11. Green Bay Packers

The Packers finished top 10 in the league in pace of play and efficiency in 2018. They also finished with the 12th most total yards, despite having an inconsistent offense. They have the 4th highest rated offensive line but face the 2nd hardest schedule in 2019; emphasized by their tough divisional rivals.

10. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens, a team lauded for their defense-first mentality, are a bit of a surprise top 10 team. Last season, though, they ran the most plays per game and finished with the 13th most plays per game and the 9th most yards per game. They also finished 9th in red zone scoring percentage.

9. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers finished in the top half of the league in 9 out of 10 of the metrics used for these rankings-with their 22nd place finish in pace of play being the sole outlier. They had the 12th most touchdowns per game and the 14th most points per game-impressive for a team that finished their season without their star quarterback healthy.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta finished top 10 in the league in points per game, touchdowns per game, red zone scoring, efficiency, and total yards in 2018. Their ranking is being weighed down by the 16th rated offensive line, but they added two key rookies to reinforce their line for 2019.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers finished 11th in points per game and 10th in touchdowns per game in 2018. They have removed Fitzpatrick from their roster, though, and added offensive minded Bruce Arians as their new head coach. Tampa Bay, though, has the 23rd rated offensive line in 2018.

6. New Orleans Saints

The Saints finished top 5 in the league in points per game, touchdowns per game, red zone attempts, red zone scoring, and offensive efficiency in 2018. They also finished 8th in total yards and are returning the 13th highest rated offensive line in 2018.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh led the league in red zone scoring percentage in 2018. They also had the 5th most points per game and the 4th most touchdowns per game and 4th most total yards. They return the 6th highest rated offensive line for 2019.

4. Kansas City Chiefs

It is no surprise Kansas City finds themselves in the top 5 to begin the 2019 season. They led the league in points per game, touchdowns per game, offensive efficiency, and total yards in 2019. They do face the hardest schedule in the league in 2019.

3. New England Patriots

The Patriots finished no lower than 12th in any of the 8 production and efficiency metrics used for these rankings. They finished 4th in points per game, 5th in touchdowns per game, and 5th in total yards. They also have the highest rated offensive line in the NFL.

2. Los Angeles Rams

It might be a bit of a shock to see the Rams not on top of these rankings. Still, they finished top 3 in pace of play, points per game, touchdowns per game, red zone attempts, efficiency, and total yards. They also have the 2nd highest rated offensive line for 2019. They are held back, though, by their 5th worst strength of schedule for 2019.

1. Indianapolis Colts

The Colts finished top 10 in every single metric in these rankings. They finished first in pace of play, 8th in points per game, 7th in touchdowns per game, and 7th in total yards. They also have the 5th best offensive line and 6th easiest strength of schedule for 2019.

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