Mon. Sep 16th, 2019

The Fantasy Fanalysts

For the Love of the Game.

Dynasty Mock Draft Series: Mid-June

11 min read

The Dynasty Mock Draft Series is a collaborative set of articles sharing the results of mock drafts with dynasty analysts from across the fantasy football community. The full results, by round, are listed below. Each analyst that participated in this draft has their personal work hyperlinked to their description, please make sure to check out their individual work as long as all of the articles in this series.  We are also be tracking ADP, which you can find HERE.

Round 1:The Return of Faith in David Johnson

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
1.01Saquon BarkleyRBNYG1
1.02Ezekiel ElliottRBDAL2
1.03Christian McCaffreyRBCAR4
1.04Alvin KamaraRBNO4
1.05DeAndre HopkinsWRHOU4
1.06Davante AdamsWRGB7
1.07Melvin Gordon RBLAC10
1.08Odell Beckham JrWRCLE6
1.09David JohnsonRBARI9
1.10Michael ThomasWRNO9
1.11JuJu Smith-SchusterWRPIT14
1.12Julio JonesWRATL15

After last years “disappointing “season (RB10) there was a lot of talk about David Johnson’s  decline, David Johnson has clearly found himself back in the mix of the first round going 1.09. It could be the new coach, new QB or the surrounding cast in general or people realizing a top ten finish isn’t bad.  Whether the new offense is as exciting as it sounds or a complete bust Johnson should produce either way being their most talented offensive weapon. Where Johnson is should see a huge fantasy uptick is in the reception department. With a rookie QB and a lot of young guys Johnson’s elite receiving skills should work as a fantastic safety blanket for Murray. 75 to 90 receptions should easily be in the cards for Johnson which makes this a dynamite pick. We’ve seen David Johnson as the RB1 before, while it’s unlikely to happen this year he could be in the conversation

–  Ryan Cearfoss,

Round 2: Todd Gurley’s landslide finally ends

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
2.01Travis KelceTEKC15
2.02Joe MixonRBCIN14
2.03James ConnerRBPIT14
2.04Mike EvansWRTB15
2.05Le’Veon BellRBNYJ18
2.06Amari CooperWRDAL21
2.07Todd GurleyRBLAR13
2.08Antonio BrownWROAK22
2.09Nick ChubbRBCLE19
2.10Dalvin CookRBMIN21
2.11Stefon DiggsWRMIN24
2.12Keenan AllenWRLAC23

Gurley’s ADP has been steadily declining day by day while Darrell Henderson’s stock is rising. But at a point, enough is enough. At 2.07 selecting Gurley is a no brainer and an absolute steal here. If his price is going down this much I will take Gurley all day in the second round. Yes his knee is a concern and the Rams have kept his status hush-hush, but I feel the fantasy community as a whole is writing him off too fast. My thinking is that he will still be the featured back and a pass catching threat with Henderson helping out on early downs to keep him fresh. Gurley’s carries will go down but once they get in the red zone and around the goal line, he should be the guy as he has proven extremely efficient in this area his entire career. Moral of the story is this: If Gurley makes it to you in the second, take him.

Brandon Hamer, Gridiron Experts

Round 3: Keeping Pace: RB Streak Continues

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
3.01George KittleTESF27
3.02Patrick MahomesQBKC25
3.03Adam ThielenWRMIN25
3.04Zach ErtzTEPHI28
3.05Marlon MackRBIND33
3.06T.Y. HiltonWRIND29
3.07Leonard FournetteRBJAX31
3.08Damian WilliamsRBKC37
3.09Josh JacobsRBOAK36
3.10Devonta FreemanRBATL39
3.11AJ GreenWRCIN36
3.12Sony MichelRBNE36

The third round was just like the last couple of rounds where, in each round prior, there were six running backs taken and if you didn’t select one (everyone did), you were possibly missing a chance to nab at least one high end option.

This round also marked the appearance of Patrick Mahomes (which seems pretty consistent with his MDS ADP) and the other two of the top three tight end options in Ertz and Kittle. Outside of Ebron in the next round, there wasn’t much for either position (QB/TE) coming off the board which was dominated by running back and wide receiver. With the scarcity at the tight end position and how these top guys score compared to receivers, it makes sense for the best options to go this early.

Christopher Nelson, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 4: Upside, Upside and More Upside

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
4.01Kerryon JohnsonRBDET37
4.02Aaron JonesRBGB38
4.03Julian EdelmanWRNE45
4.04Mark IngramRBBAL46
4.05Brandin CooksWRLAR34
4.06David MontgomeryRBCHI45
4.07Derrick HenryRBTEN43
4.08Phillip LindsayRBDEN45
4.09Kenny GolladayWRDET35
4.10Eric EbronTEIND55
4.11Derrius GuiceRBWAS46
4.12Robert WoodsWRLAR46

This round is filled with players that have a ton of upside and could easily out produce their draft capitol.  2 guys that really stand out for me are Kerryon Johnson and Phillip Lindsay.

Out of this round, I believe Kerryon Johnson has the highest chance of significantly increasing his dynasty value during the 2019 season.  Johnson has all of the tools to be a workhorse and contribute on all three downs. The only concerns for Johnson is his injury history and uncertainty regarding Detroit’s willingness to make him a 3 down back.  If given the opportunity to be the workhorse, I could easily see Johnson being a consensus top 10 running back for dynasty.

Phililip Lindsay has been a guy I found myself buying a lot this offseason.  The rookie UDFA burst onto the scene in 2018 by having nearly 1,300 all purpose yards and 10 total TDs.  A young running back with this type of production usually finds themselves as a top 24 pick in startups. The questions surrounding Lindsay are if he will still be the guy with a brand new coaching staff and if Royce Freeman can improve from a lack luster 2018.  I believe that Lindsay will keep the starting job and continue to produce, making him an absolute value at this price.

Mike Colaianne, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 5: WR2s Run as RB Tier Drops

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
5.01Kenyan DrakeRBMIA58
5.02Miles SandersRBPHI50
5.03Sammy WatkinsWRKC55
5.04Cooper KuppWRLAR52
5.05Jarvis LandryWRCLE56
5.06Andrew LuckQBIND44
5.07Mike WilliamsWRLAC58
5.08Chris CarsonRBSEA56
5.09Tyler LockettWRSEA65
5.10Calvin RidleyWRATL57
5.11Chris GodwinWRTB58
5.12Deshaun WatsonQBHOU64

The fifth round of fantasy drafts is a big dividing spot where we start to see significant tier drops, especially at RB and TE. This presented an obvious opportunity for WR2s that are safe bets to comfortably fall somewhere in that WR15-25 range to go on a run. Seven WRs were taken in this round with players like Jarvis Landry and Cooper Kupp going earlier in the round while riskier players looking to continue an upward trend like Tyler Lockett and Chris Godwin brought up the end of the round.

If you went with a WR heavy approach early in the draft you could still lock up a top-tier QB1 here in the fifth such as Andrew Luck or Deshaun Watson. If you missed out on a legitimate RB1 early in the draft, you might as well embrace the fact that you’re going with the zero RB strategy. You could start reaching now for pass-catching backs with PPR RB2 upside, but locking in a stud QB would probably help offset the points you’re missing out on at RB better while providing a safer weekly floor.

John Ferguson, Gridiron Experts

Round 6: Strategies Emerge in Round 6

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
6.01D.J. MooreWRCAR53
6.02Baker MayfieldQBCLE70
6.03Aaron RodgersQBGB66
6.04Hunter HenryTELAC65
6.05Tyler BoydWRCIN58
6.06Allen RobinsonWRCHI67
6.07James WhiteRBNE67
6.08Tarik CohenRBCHI63
6.09Russell WilsonQBSEA76
6.10D.K. MetcalfWRSEA80
6.11N’Keal HarryWRNE74
6.12Alshon JefferyWRPHI72

By the 6th round in most drafts you should be able to decipher the strategy of each of your opponents and understanding their strategy is often the most important tool as you decide who to pick each round. Round 6 is also where the last of the predictable floor players with great upside are taken. After my pick in the 5th round of Andrew Luck I was very balanced with 2 RB and 2 WR to go with my Top 3 likely QB. The first pick in the round went predictably with DJ Moore taken. I had three players targeted with Tyler Boyd the last of my top level WR picks left, Hunter Henry as my last solid early TE play, and James White the King of PPR Fantasy Football. When you already have a top QB the best thing that can happen is a mini run on QB which happened before my pick. The selection of Boyd and Henry made my pick easy when it came around. The round finished off with some rookie WR picks which I was not ready to pick setting me up to get what I wanted out of the next round.

Dennis Michelsen,

Round 7: Boom or Bust

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
7.01Tevin ColemanRBSF75
7.02OJ HowardTETB57
7.03Ito SmithRBATL95
7.04Will FullerWRHOU78
7.05Evan EngramTENYG69
7.06Darrell HendersonRBLAR90
7.07Rashaad PennyRBSEA77
7.08Jerick McKinnonRBSF90
7.09Mecole HardmanWRKC94
7.10Robby AndersonWRNYJ81
7.11Christian KirkWRARI96
7.12Dante PettisWRSF79

Round 7 is filled with boom or bust candidates. Both Tevin Coleman and Rashaad Penny (my pick in this round) could end up leading their respected bachfields in touches. Or the could play as backups or situational players and be a headache to deal with all season. Evan Engram and OJ Howard have the talent and opportunity to finish as top 5 tight ends this year. But they can also struggle and finish outside the top 10. Dante Pettis, Christian Kirk, Robby Anderson, Will Fuller and rookie Mecole Hardman are in the same boat. Great potential and situations for 2019 but could end up bursting your bubble. Championships will be won or loss in this round. Take your pick wisely.

Anthony Zaragoza, Dynasty Football Factory

Round 8:  Time To Gamble

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
8.01Royce FreemanRBDEN90
8.02Ronald JonesRBTB101
8.03Jared CookTENO100
8.04Lamar MillerRBHOU74
8.05T.J. HockensonTEDET94
8.06Courtland Sutton WRDEN91
8.07Tyreek HillWRKC84
8.08Corey DavisWRTEN87
8.09Kareem HuntRBCLE81
8.10Curtis SamuelWRCAR117
8.11Sterling ShepardWRNYG90
8.12Keke CouteeWRHOU106

This round started out with two second year running backs that were highly touted coming out that had disappointing Rookie campaigns Royce Freeman 8.1 & Ronald Jones 8.2. Both have nowhere to go, but up and coaching changes for optimism. A stop gap TE Cook at 8.3 and rookie sensation  Hockenson 8.5 were TE7 and TE8 respectively off of the board. Lamar Miller 8.4 was great value for a team looking to compete now. Corey Davis one off the board and 8.8 as he continues to slide. Some breakout candidates also want this round Samuel, Shepard, Coutee, Sutton. Shows you there is value at receiver in around eight. Probably the biggest thing that out was that both Tyreek Hill and Kareem hunt were picked in the middle of this round. Both come with a risk, especially Hill. Round 8 seems like a safe place to start taking some gambles. Something to think about if you are looking at these 2.

David Heilman, Dynasty Dorks

Round 9: Value Galore!

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
9.01Golden TateWRNYG99
9.02Marvin JonesWRDET111
9.03Nyheim HinesRBIND121
9.04Parris CampbellWRIND85
9.05Jaylen SamuelsRBPIT109
9.06Geronimo AllisonWRGB96
9.07Austin HooperTEATL97
9.08James WashingtonWRPIT108
9.09Matt RyanQBATL100
9.10Latavius MurrayRBNO96
9.11Daesean HamiltonWRDEN126
9.12David NjokuTECLE101

Look at all this value! We have a bunch of WR2/RB2 level players with massive upside. Marvin Jones and Golden Tate in the early part, they could both return a high return at this draft capital. A little farther down, we see Latavius Murray who will nicely fill Mark Ingram’s missing shoes in a historically shared backfield.
And then we have Matt Ryan. “The 7th QB off the board” is right where he should be drafted. By the 9th round, a fantasy owner is likely stacked up with 4 WRs and 4RBs or perhaps they sprung for an early Tight End. Either way, they are setup for success and then have the potential top 5 QB in Matt Ryan to put early season fear in their opponents.

If I had to single out a 9th round blemish, it would be the drafting of Daesean Hamilton. A defensive minded team with a QB who is not exciting for fantasy means there won’t be enough production and value for Hamilton. Thankfully, a fantasy owner will be able to drop a player that they drafted in the 9th round without batting an eye.

Marc Szymanski, The Fantasy Fanalysts

Round 10: Searching For Value as We Hit Double-Digit Rounds

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
10.01Devin FunchessWRIND124
10.02Vance McDonaldTEPIT112
10.03Drew BreesQBNO119
10.04D’Onta ForemanRBHOU109
10.05Jameis WinstonQBTB117
10.06Tyrell WilliamsWROAK114
10.07DeSean JacksonWRPHI126
10.08Kirk CousinsQBMIN123
10.09Jordan HowardRBPHI105
10.10Mark AndrewsTEBAL125
10.11Damien HarrisRBNE116
10.12Cam NewtonQBCAR130

QB was the most heavily drafted position in round 10 with four guys coming off of the board here. Only seven QBs were taken in the first nine rounds but we would see nine of them taken in this round. Cam Newton and Drew Brees highlight the QB’s here.

Round 10 was also home to three running back selections with Damien Harris, Jordan Howard, D’Onta Foreman being taken here. This being the third mock in our series, Foreman has gone on average at the 9.11 pick and was taken here at 10.4. This seems more than fair value for a guy who has a legitimate chance to beat out Lamar Miller.

Tyrell Williams, Devin Funchess, and DeSean Jackson were the WR’s taken in the 10th, and DeSean Jackson is a guy I like at this value as he should be the big play threat upon his return to Philadelphia. Rounding out round 10 was upside TE Mark Andrews and Vance McDonald who’s looking to build off of his TE10 PPR finish in 2018.

Ryan Whitfield,

Round 11: 2019 Rookie Price Check

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
11.01Peyton BarberRBTB110
11.02Noah FantTEDEN111
11.03Ben RoethlisbergerQBPIT115
11.04Dede WestbrookWRJAX121
11.05Dak PrescottQBDAL125
11.06Anthony MillerWRCHI130
11.07Jamaal WilliamsRBGB127
11.08Jared GoffQBLAR124
11.09Deebo SamuelWRSF128
11.10Emmanuel SandersWRDEN137
11.11Kyler Murray QBARI131
11.12Carson WentzQBPHI118

In this round we saw Noah Fant (11.2), Deebo Samuel (11.9) and Kyler Murray (11.11) all come off the board. We’re starting to see how this group of analysts values these players and what their current ADP’s are in a startup draft. All three players thus far have been drafted in rounds 10-12 of these mocks and I believe all three are great values in this range. All three have the athletic profile, college production, draft capital AND landing spot that sets them up for future success.

That said, Kyler Murray stands out to me as the best value of the three with his immediate path to production and weekly starter impact. The Cardinals new offense (per coach Kingsbury) is going to feature the read-option and could average around 80-90 plays per game. Add in the depth of weapons at WR/TE and David Johnson’s premier pass catching skills. I’m fine waiting on QB and getting Murray in this range as my QB1.

Kyle Purdue,

Round 12: Late Round Value in QB Youth

PickPlayerPOSTeamMDS ADP
12.01Alexander Mattison RBMIN133
12.02Justice HillRBBAL119
12.03LeSean McCoyRBBUF103
12.04Marquise Brown WRBAL124
12.05Trey Burton TECHI130
12.06Jimmy GaroppoloQBSF134
12.07Dion LewisRBTEN120
12.08Kalen BallageRBMIA138
12.09Devin SingletaryRBBUF121
12.10Josh Allen QBBUF139
12.11Andy IsabellaWRARI143
12.12Lamar JacksonQBBAL144

The “zero QB”, or waiting until the end of the draft, approach seems to be fading in popularity. This draft, however, is a good example of how that approach can payoff. Garoppolo, Allen, and Jackson have all flashed excellence in their limited experience.

Garoppolo completed 68% of his passes while throwing for 1,560 yards and 7 touchdowns after being traded to the 49ers in 2017.

Josh Allen finished as QB21 last season, despite missing 6 games for injury in the middle of the season. Allen finished the season as QB1 from weeks 12-17, after returning from injury in 2018. In those games he averaged 24 fantasy points per week.

Lamar Jackson also finished his rookie campaign strong. Jackson started just 7 games in 2018, but he led the Ravens to the playoffs. He threw for 1,201 yards and ran for another 695 yards. He combined for 11 touchdowns.

Matt Hicks, The Fantasy Fanalysts

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