Wed. Dec 11th, 2019

The Fantasy Fanalysts

For the Love of the Game.

Week 5 Review – Fantasy Football Stock Market Edition

9 min read

Buy, sell, set a stop-loss, give me a call for 150 fantasy points this week, that type of terminology may mean nothing to you if you don’t dabble in stocks, but it translates into wins in fantasy football. After a week 5 that saw the trend of monster games continue from guys that we know are known-studs in CMC for example, we take a look at some of the biggest things to note and how you prepare yourself for the future.

Set a Stop-Loss (Be prepared to sell)

Dak Prescott – Looking at his stats from this week, you start with 465 yards, hell yeah, you look at the TDs, 2 of them, not bad, you get to the picks, 3, um what? Yeah that was my reaction as the game went. Dak struggled for a large portion of the game but still amazingly produced, he didn’t have a bad game from a fantasy point perspective either with approximately 19.5. But, what set him on fire at the start of the season was bad teams and bad defenses, against 2 good defenses in 2 consecutive weeks he’s had 4 picks to 2 touchdowns. What’s more concerning is that it looks like with Tyron Smith out on his blindside, he was scared. What’s more and more concerning is that Collins could be out potentially past their bye-week with a MCL sprain. The silver lining is that their next 3 games are against the Jets, Eagles, Giants – 2 of 3 are bad defenses which means good things for him and giving you an opportunity to sell after a great game, should you want to move on.

Lamar Jackson – He had the same thing happen as Dak, 2 bad teams made him a super start to start the year, and he’s having a meteoric fall back to Earth. 5 picks in 2 games, never breaking more than 250 yards through the air. He’s a hot commodity, especially in dynasty leagues, but his schedule does not do him any favors in building confidence in the face of tough defenses. I’m low on Jackson’s offensive line too which has given up 12 sacks in the last three games and Lamar has looked scared as he scrambles to make plays – he’s facing some very good defensive lines with the Bengals, Seattle, and the Patriots on their slate. Sell him if you’re in redraft, but be prepared to cut your losses in redraft if need be. This is hurting Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews who have immense potential if Jackson gets time and gets accurate again.

Jordan Howard – I am a big Howard fan, I thought the Bears dropped him prematurely when they did and I still stand by that. However, it would not be premature for you to move on from him, now. 5 total touchdowns over the last 3 games is something he will not sustain, not by a long shot when the Eagles want to throw with Wentz back there and not when Howard is not the go-to pass catching back. He’s averaging a promising 4.6 YPC on an average of 13 carries per game over the last three games. I say he can’t sustain that because of his low volume,  the Eagles want Miles Sanders to be a thing and that’s why he cannot sustain these levels. However, someone RB desperate will see his recent production, will see that one good week came against a good defense in GB (They really aren’t great against the run) will see another good week against the Jets who really aren’t good against anything, and will happily trade you a top receiver if you offer them a package.

Stefon Diggs – This feels obvious but I feel like I need to say – try to trade him if you can. After a week of rumors about him wanting a trade, Cousins “apologizing” to Thielen for his throws (he didn’t shout out Diggs, remember that) and a perfect game for that aerial attack to bounce back against a week Giants defense, Diggs wasn’t even the second option for Cousins. He tied Bisi Johnson for targets (4) and only had 3 catches. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook caught 6 for 6 on top of 21 carries. This offense, no, this quarterback, for whatever reason, doesn’t want to use a talented and young wide receiver.

Buy a call option (hold on to see value)

Sony Michel – I am guilty A-F on this one. I’ve been shopping him in all the leagues I own him, I even wrote an article a couple weeks ago saying that you needed to get away from him. Well, I’m here to say that I was wrong. We finally had his breakout game – 16 for 91 and a touchdown and 3 catches for 32 yards. This was great for him and great for his value especially with 2 things: 1) When he gets a touchdown, they are 11-0. Doesn’t mean they’re going to get him involved but it means when their rushing game is working and he is the focal point (presumably) good things happen. 2) Tom Brady said they need to get him more involved. All things considered, their o-line has not been healthy, their offense hasn’t been great the last 2 games even though they ended up putting over 30 on the ‘skins, and I think that’s an attributing factor for them. McDaniels needs to use him in the pass more, which we saw him out there for an increased number of passing plays, and he will see success. Hold onto Sony, don’t sell him just yet.

Aaron Jones – FINALLY, HE’S FREE. I’m a big proponent of the “Free Aaron Jones” campaign and it finally happened. He led the team in rushing attempts (19) AND Targets (8) AND receptions (7) They put the offense in his hands and it paid off to the tune of 182 yards and 4 touchdowns. How can you ever argue against him? Now, I will say when you look at the 2019 season, his usage has not been great and often his value has only been saved by short-yardage touchdowns and his touchdown trend won’t continue at this pace (he has 8 TDs through 5 games) but maybe, just maybe, Green Bay is finally learning that giving him the ball is a good thing. Coming into last nights game, his on the ground average was just 3.3 YPC, his average didn’t go up much with week 5’s performance but those stats, the lack of yards, made me want to trade him but after this performance he is either the perfect trade bait or you’re riding him out long term. I lean ride it out with him because at some point, Green Bay has to wake up.

Travis Kelce – *Gasp* you can’t really be considering moving on from Kelce, can you Jason? Yes, yes I can. His lack of touchdowns from Patty Ma-can’t-beat-the-colts-bum-dense-homes has me concerned. You probably put a lot of draft capital into Kelce and you’re seeing some decent returns especially in PPR leagues but he hasn’t had the game that we all are waiting for him. The offense of the Chiefs didn’t look right last night and they haven’t looked right the last 2 games, am I worried? Mildly. While he hasn’t been the redzone threat we need, he’s the target monster we want with 43 on the season. I just want the Chiefs to be the Chiefs and use him in the redzone and actually score points. Their schedule is deceptive with some of the quiet, sneaky good defenses coming up, I look at their schedule and truly don’t see a BAD defense for the rest of the season.

Entering a Bull Market (Positive Outlook, play em!)

Dj Chark – I love this guy and I love this team. They didn’t win but I’m looking forward, not in the past. The Jags look good, their offense is clicking, their defense is good (not great) and Minshew has found his trusted receiver in Chark. Their slate has some weaker secondaries coming up so I’m trusting my gut and playing Chark everywhere I can. Over 7 targets per game, owning approximately 32% of Minshew’s targets and over 50% of his deep targets. Couple that with a great catch percentage (72%) and I don’t see a reason for you to bench him unless you have some nasty #1/2 WR in which case, he should own your flex. The Jags as whole are trending upward in my opinion, regardless of their record. 

Tevin Coleman – A surprise entry to this, even for me. But, after the game against Cleveland, it became clear to me that Shanny likes Coleman as his runningback and the reason for the big split carries was because Coleman is coming back from injury. While Breida had more yardage, that’s primarily because of one giant run. Coleman ended up out touching him with 16 carries on the night and had a great average in his return to business with an average of 6 yards-per-carry. The defensive fronts they’re facing over the next 5 weeks are favorable and he should easily usurp Brieda (I hate this cause I’m a Brieda fan). It also helps his value, and the team, that Jimmy G is starting to look good again, coming off an amazingly efficient game where he had to simply game manage. As his arm warms up, Shanny will let him loose which will open lanes for Coleman.

Josh Jacobs – Okay, who sat him this past week? (Raises hand) Who was surprised by his performance against the Bears? (Raises hand) Who is playing him every week going forward? (Jumps in the air) This game was a revelation for him and the Oakland O. They can play, their team is looking different. The fact that he rushed for 123 yards and 2 TDs on 26 attempts was amazing, he ran hard. Carr also took enough attempts in the air that the defense wasn’t totally all over the run, they were respecting the air, maybe more than they should’ve. The toughest rush defense they face in the next 5 weeks is in Green Bay, but they are weaker than what Chicago should have been, start this baaaad man.

Entering a Bear Market (Negative outlook, consider sitting)

Odell Beckham Jr. – Again, I imagine you gasp. But 5 games have shown me 3 things: 
1. Their offensive line is not good.
2. Because the line is not good, Baker is not accurate.
3. Because Odell is the top talent, he gets the top defense.
When you combine all of the above, you get a recipe for Landry to succeed, which he has, as Baker’s safety blanket not OBJ. Odell is getting looks, 43 targets through 5 games to be exact, but his catch percentage is barely above 50%. I also loathe their schedule coming up. They have a 5 game slate against some of the best pass defenses AND pass rushing defenses. I don’t know that you can make a case that Cleveland turns around their offensive output for Odell during the next 5 weeks and that causes me to seriously consider sitting him. 

New York Giants – Yeah, I’m putting a whole team on here. There are a lot of injuries going around – Shepard, Engram, Barkley, I think even someone on their oline got banged up. They have the Patriots this week, so definitely don’t play anyone, then an “eh” matchup in Arizona, and then a tough one against Detroit. I’m not saying the future is totally bleak, but, I’m not saying you should start anyone on this team for at least the next 3 weeks. 

Terry McLaurin – Everyone is excited about him, getting a nickname this early in your career is no small feat (Terry “F1” McLaurin) buttttt when your franchise is a dumpster fire, you have no certainty at the QB role, your offensive line is missing some key players to actually help your air attack, AND your new head coach explicitly said he wants to run the ball more, that’s just some bad juju. You have exactly 1 week, next week, to see value from Terry. After they play the dolphins they get the 49ers, Vikings, and Bills, all 3 of those teams can get after the passer and can lock down receivers which means Terry’s value, at least in totality over the next 4 weeks, is not great. 

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