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Week 10 WR/TE Buy and Sell Targets

Boy oh boy did this past week have some fun and exciting games that have painted a picture for me of who I want to start targeting more and more. Some are under the radar, some are right in your face. Either way, lets get ready for the home stretch of the fantasy season.

Wide Receiver, Buying:

Josh Gordon

He was my week 1 sell target and at that point in the season, I think that was an accurate place for him to be. Since then, things have changed. He’s now a patriot and is evolving as a player in that system. Coming off his biggest game as a patriot where he saw 10 targets, about a third of Tom Brady’s throws, capitalized on 5 (should have been 6) for 130 yards and a touchdown. He showed big play ability, showed his hands, and showed a growing connection between him and TB12. Through 6 games with Pats, he’s 38 targets, 22 receptions, 2 touchdowns, and roughly 400 yards. I love him in this system and moving forward. Buy em!

Sammy Watkins

He’s slowly crept into the top 25 of WRs in PPR leagues. Coming off a 5 for 62 performance in Cleveland, he gets a match-up with Arizona and their second string CB named what exactly? This season, he’s only been good for 3 touchdowns because Mahomes has 3 other targets to give them to in the form of Tyreek, Kelce, and Hunt. But, you’re not buying Watkins to be your fantasy savior, you’re buying him to be a solid role player. With 54 targets and 39 receptions on the season, he can be the guy to give you solid WR2/3 points per week. The Chiefs offense shows no signs of slowing down and I’d take him as a role player.

Wide Receiver, Selling:

Amari Cooper

First game jitters in the middle of the season? Nah, he didn’t have any. In a game where it was his first time playing with the quarterback, he saw 8 targets from Prescott, that’s his third highest all season – he was previously playing with a guy who’d he played with for some quite some time and averaged 5 targets per game through the 6 games he played for the Raiders. He looked good in his Cowboy’s debut hauling in 5 of those 8 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. This is why I’m selling him, he looked good and like he was full of potential. Maybe you can do what the Raiders did and get a 1st rounder for him in a package. He is talented, no doubt, but is the Cowboy’s offense much better than the Raiders? Maybe at the RB position, but that’s it. Will his issue of dropping passes disappear in Dallas? No way of knowing. Sell him on a great and promising week.

Golden Tate

He teetered on a buy for me. The Eagles made an aggressive move for a guy that dominates the slot. Except they already had decent slot production out of Agholor. They also just paid a ton of money for Alshon. Leaving Tate as seemingly half season rental. Will that effect him? Maybe not, if anything it could have the adverse effect and benefit him as the Eagles will try to get their value out of him before he potentially walks away at the end of the year. Tate has seen some great usage on the year with 69 targets, 44 receptions, and over 500 yards, I’m just not sure that Carson will give him the target share that Stafford did. I’d sell him now while some people are still enamored with the move

Tight End, Buying:

Chris Herndon

Since assuming the starting role for the Jets in week 6, Herndon has been a pleasant surprise and a quiet one. He’s seen 15 targets, catching 11 of them for 176 yards and three touchdowns. Pretty solid stats for a relative unknown at the position on a team led by a rookie QB prone to interceptions. In his stretch of starts, he faced one of the toughest defenses in the Bears and still came away with a touchdown to give him fantasy value. He’s a rookie that’s getting targets and producing with them. He’ll earn trust from his quarterbacks and his value will continue to rise. He’s owned in less than 12 percent of ESPN leagues, go get him in dynasty and in redraft if you need TE help, he’s a TE2 but a consistent starter in my opinion.

Tight End, Selling:

Kyle Rudolph

The fact that he’s the TE 12 in PPR leagues goes to show you how devoid the fantasy landscape is of big time TEs. Since week 6, he’s not had more than 4 catches, has not broken 50 yards in a game since week 4, and hasn’t seen a touchdown since week 3. His production is poor in an offense where they have 2 of the best receivers in the league and a formidable running game. Cousins his looking his way less which means it’s time to sell him. Guide Santa’s sleigh for another team.

Boy oh boy did this past week have some fun and exciting games that have painted a picture for me of who I want to start targeting more and more. […]

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Buying and Selling WR/TE Targets for Week 8

We all know the NFL trade deadline is approaching and teams are making move, the Raiders gave away a fantastic talent in Amari Cooper (He’s still a sell candidate) and I can only wonder what else is to come. We in the fantasy world have a luxury of being able to trade often and whenever, depending on your league rules. With that in mind, here’s some buy and sell targets ahead of week 8.

Wide Receiver, Buying

John Brown

He has been a wonderful surprise this year and is currently WR11 in standard leagues. Through 7 games he has a stat line of 54 targets with 28 receptions, 558 yards, and 4 touchdowns. I like it, it’s not solid gold, but I like it. His catch percentage of 52% isn’t thrilling but I don’t know that we can put it all on him. He’s seeing 18% percent of Flacco’s throws in a season where Flacco is on pace to throw almost 600 times. I think he has massive upside just off that knowledge alone, not taking into consideration his big play ability. Oh, lets also talk about his schedule – favorable matchups against Pit, Atl, TB, KC, Oak – he looks ripe to continue a breakout year.

Cole Beasley

Boy, I wish I could see the puzzled look of concern on your face when you see his name popup. Beasley has potential to dominate the field and the looks from Prescott, we saw it in week 6 against Jacksonville where he walked away with 9 for 101 and 2 touchdowns, a monster stat line. He saw consistent targets and catches last week against Washington but failed to reach the endzone. I think the addition of Cooper breaks the field open a bit more for him. To date, he’s seen 43 targets and caught 33 of them, I expect this number goes up much more. Oh, the best thing, he’s available in almost 80% of leagues on ESPN, go get him for free, consider him a WR3/Flex play based on match-up, and benefit.

Wide Receiver, Selling

Brandin Cooks

He’s back! To his old ways of boom or bust, with a sprinkle of injuries. I loved him on the pats because he gave us a great speed threat, on the Rams he’s still that player but he’s on an offense with too many options. 44 targets for 32 catches and 569 yards, a solid stat line, add in 2 touchdowns and he definitely has his boom games. It’s this reason that you can trade him for valuable pieces, use him and the fact that the Rams are so dominant to get you a potential RB1/WR2/3 package, that kind of trade is out there.

Any Jaguars Receiver

Jacksonville isn’t quite the team we thought we’d see this year, specially after their dominant week 2 win against the Patriots. There is definitely turmoil going on as Bortles continue to flounder and his receivers are suffering. As a whole, they average about 256 passing yards per game, that’s not a ton to go around to begin. They have varying degrees of usage and targets and no constant denominator. Hell, the player with the second highest amount of receptions is T.J. Yeldon, a running back! With no receivers having more than 31 receptions going into week 8, no one higher than 404 yards receiving, and no one owning more than 2 touchdowns, I’m just not a fan of any wide receiver.

Tight End, Buying

Jimmy Graham

I’m back tracking here but only because I’m loving the stats and usage he’s seen the past 2 weeks. He’s seen 20 targets for 11 receptions, 180 yards but no touchdowns, averaging a respectable 9 yards per target. Rodgers is looking his way more and more (45 targets on the season) and he’s catching them more and more. They have a tough defensive matchup this week against the Rams but after that, no defense scares me for them. I think he progresses and continues to gain Rodger’s trust and teeter-totters on the second or third option in that passing attack.

Tight End, Selling

Oj Howard

There is such a fine line between weekly, startable options at TE that it’s hard to justify anyone sitting in the top 15. Except, you can. Howard is a consistent TE, generally bringing 4 or 5 balls a game, averaging yards in the 60/game range. It’s not bad, it’s good for 10 PPR points a week, but it’s not great. It’s not wowing me. I will bet there’s someone in your league with a need at TE, it’s just how things go. You can offer him up and get a nice trade that swings your way. Well, who do you replace Howard with, you may ask. There are a number of tight-ends available that can be sufficient, see CJ Uzomah (available in over 60% of leagues) or Ricky Seals-Jones who’s offense may turn around for the better and add value to him (available in 80% of leagues) There’s talent out there for you to make a move at TE to upgrade another roster need, you just have to look.

We all know the NFL trade deadline is approaching and teams are making move, the Raiders gave away a fantastic talent in Amari Cooper (He’s still a sell candidate) and […]

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Get the Squirrel: Week 7 Buy and Sell Targets for WR and TE

Week 6 was a fun week for some tight games like the Pats/Chiefs and the unexpected excitement of the Packers/49ers. A lot happened, a lot of boom happened to be more specific. I won this week on the back of a wide receiver and I expect that to happen frequently. Lets take a look at who you should buy and sell to improve your team.

Wide Receiver, Buying:

Julian Edelman

You should have seen this coming. In his return he saw 9 targets, 7 catches, for 54 yards. Not a big boom in the return but if you’re looking for pure stats, you’re looking at this wrong. He saw 9 targets in his first game in over a year, him and Brady didn’t miss a beat and to me that spells money. In his week 6 game, he stayed consistent, 4 for 7 for 54 yards but adding a touchdown, I love his usage. In his last full season he saw over 159 targets, that pegs him as one of the highest, if not the highest, targeted receiver from 2016. I suspect we will see similar volume over the rest of the season, his almost 16 targets through two games tells me this much. You may be able to buy him cheap if someone isn’t confident in his longevity but he also may be a hard buy.

Davante Adams

I had my doubts early. Being the number one target isn’t always easy and full of amazing games. Unless your Adams and just so happen to be Rodgers favorite target. 71 targets through 6 games, catching 47 of them for a nice 66% catch rating and getting 557 yards. He’s on track for a monster season. But he’s also on track for 16 touchdowns. He’s average 1 a game and coming off of this past week where Rodger’s only 2 touchdowns were to Adams, I’d say his value and worth are astoundingly high. You may read this and tell me I’m an idiot for even saying to buy him and that this may be an impossible feat but if you’re in Dynasty, do it, he has many more years with this kind of production. If you’re in redraft, do it, he can be a week winner.

Wide Receiver: Selling

Will Fuller

Can you say touchdown dependent? His big play ability is the only thing that saves him but he is the biggest boom-or-bust player outside of Amari Cooper at he WR position. To date, he’s seen 31 targets for 21 receptions with 3 touchdowns, not bad for someone who missed week 1. You may question why I say sell, look at the previous years; 2017 only 50 targets with a 56% catch rate, 2016, 92 targets with a 51% catch rate. He’s generally good to catch half the balls thrown his way, which means low yardage, which means touchdown dependent. He’s had a solid start to the season but I don’t think he plays the full rest of the season nor does he keep up the pace he currently has. He’s coming off two consecutive down weeks with 3 targets, 2 receptions, and averaging 24 yards, but you can still sell him on the previous production.

Jarvis Landry

What a target animal, 66 targets through 6 games. Sell a target monster? A PPR machine in past seasons? Yes, a 50% catch rate tells me to sell him. 1 touchdown tells me to sell him. Catching 2 balls last game on 9 targets tells me to sell him. Barely reaching and breaking 100 yards twice tells me to sell him. As much as we love Baker, as much as we love Landry’s opportunity in Cleveland, he’s not catching them like he has in the past and that worries me. You can definitely sell him for some great pieces and I think you do it. Can this bite you in the butt down the line? Definitely, it just depends in what way.

Tight End, Buying:

CJ Uzomah

He assumed the starting role in Cincinnati this weekend and made the most of it. 7 targets which is a great indicator for me, 6 receptions which is fantastic to see, and 54 yards, a modest number for the first time as the lead tight end. I think Uzomah has potential to breakout for Cincy being that Kroft could potentially miss the rest of the season if he has surgery or significant time if he doesn’t. Historically, CJ isn’t great because he’s never had the opportunity to be the guy, now he does. Cincy has a great offense when they’re clicking and I think that will keep him relevant and reliable.

Tight End, Selling

Jesse James

Low volume, 21 targets through 6 games to be exact, and a third of that coming in the last game, but an exceptional catch rate at 81%. He had one monster week that is keeping him in the top 10 at the TE spot and hasn’t done much else outside of that. He saw 7 targets last game and caught 5 of them but only netted 25 yards, that’s crazy to me because you had Vance McDonald opposite him getting big chunks, why couldn’t he? Oh, that’s right, because Vance McDonald is there, too. But, that’s who he is, he’s boom or bust, more often, bust. Sell him for whatever low-end flex play you can get at the WR spot because you can get more value there.

Week 6 was a fun week for some tight games like the Pats/Chiefs and the unexpected excitement of the Packers/49ers. A lot happened, a lot of boom happened to be […]

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Week 5 Wide Receiver and Tight End Buy/Sell Targets

Week 5 is on the horizon, look alive people! We’re past the quarter mark of the season and week 4 certainly did not disappoint. Right about now, you’re either panicking and giving up on fantasy football or you’re strategizing how to bounce back. We take a look at some targets for you to capitalize on and cash in with.

Wide Receivers, Buying:

Robert Woods

We’ve known Woods can play in LA, dating back to last season he was a very viable fantasy option. This year, it seems like he’s found himself teetering on the edge of the WR 2/3 position in LA. Even so, his target share is huge. 34 targets through the first 4 weeks with a 72% catch rate that is lessened purely because of his week 1 match-up where he caught 30% of the balls thrown his way. Now, coming of a 5 for 5 week where he had over 100 yards and a touchdown, I think you buy him. To be honest, you buy anyone in the Rams offense. It may be hard for you to get him away from his current owner but his continued volume and the Rams offensive ability makes him a great buy target as he’s not necessarily the top receiver in LA.

Taylor Gabriel

Here’s a deep one for you. A name that doesn’t elicit sparkling memories of fantasy dominance. Gabriel is showing he is a weapon for Trubisky and is getting the looks needed to make him valuable. In week 4 which was an absolute blowout for the Bears, a game where they didn’t need to throw but kept doing so, Gabriel saw 7 targets and caught them all. He had over 100 yards but the most notable and important thing is that he was the redzone target. Both of his touchdowns came when they were 3 yards out from the endzone. He’s showing that he can be trusted when it counts to his QB who has already supplied him with almost 30 targets. I want Gabriel on my team, specially as the Bears find their identity.

Wide Receivers, Selling:

Marvin Jones Jr 

It hurts me to say this, I love MJJ. But, The lions offense, as good as it can be, isn’t good enough to feed the mouths they have. Golladay is emerging as a younger, more efficient target. Tate is consistently a PPR machine and is showing amazing athleticism for his age. MJ has 29 targets through 4 weeks with only 15 targets, catching barely half the targets he gets. Combine that with low yardage, 58 yards on average through the first 4 games, he is seemingly touchdown dependent. Sell him and get a package or someone who has a currently better catch percentage.

Devin Funchess

He’s so..meh. Maybe it’s cause it’s early in the season and they had a week 4 bye but even so, his stats of 21 targets, 14 receptions and 185 yards and 1 touchdown just aren’t thrilling me. He has potential, look to last season where he saw over 100 targets, over 800 yards and 8 touchdowns. I think his problem is still his catch percentage, last year it was 56%, this year, so far, it’s sitting around 65%. It’s a concern and I’m just not feeling him at this point.

Tight End, Buying:

Vance McDonald

He missed week 1. Week 2, he saw a slightly increased role, week 3, he solidified his position as TE1 in Pittsburgh. Week 4, 5 catches on 5 targets for 62 yards. A very modest stat line and if he was a WR, no one would be overly jazzed about him. But, he’s a TE, and this year it feels like there’s no Grade A, high volume, high yardage TEs. Big Ben will look for him and going into a game against Atlanta where they’re missing their coverage backer, I think Vance is poised for another massive game. I scooped him where I could and look forward to reaping the rewards.

Tight End, Selling

Rob Gronkowski

What? The all time great of the TE world? Sell him? Yes. I’m a Patriot’s fan, I love Gronk and all that he does, I love his loyalty to Brady. But I do not love his attention he receives from other teams. Through 4 weeks he’s seen 23 targets, a low amount for the number 1 option on the Patriot’s offense. Week 1 was a boom of a week with over 120 yards and a touchdown, he hasn’t seen the endzone since. 4 catches for 44 yards in a game where the Patriots blew the Dolphins out, say hello to double coverage. Yes, Gordon is getting healthy, Edelman is coming back, their offense should be humming soon. But, defenses will always focus the biggest target on the field and that is Gronk without a doubt. Sell him and get the RB1 or WR1 your team needs and a few role players too.

Week 5 is on the horizon, look alive people! We’re past the quarter mark of the season and week 4 certainly did not disappoint. Right about now, you’re either panicking […]

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The Case for a Little Fitz-Magic

Ryan Fitzmagic is tantalizing the NFL with his absolutely red-hot start. He is the only quarterback in NFL history to throw for over 400 yards in 3 straight games. He’s leading a Buccaneers team that couldn’t find their identity last season on offense or defense to a 2-1 start that easily could have been 3-0 save not for pressure getting to him and making eerily poor decisions compared to the previous 2 games. He’s doing all this right, bringing hope to a franchise that has always felt on the cusp but never could get over the hurdle. And yet, no one is sure if he’ll be the starter going forward, no one is confident that his organization won’t put Jameis back in the starting role with no regard for the magic that Fitzpatrick is creating. Lets look at the stats…

Small Sample, Big Results

Through the first three games of the 2018 season, Fitz is averaging 410 yards and roughly 3 touchdowns to 1 interception. He has a completion percentage averaging over 72% through three games against what many thought to be sturdy defenses. This also beats his career average of 60%. His football numbers are off the charts and so are his fantasy numbers – In PPR leagues, he is the QB1 and is averaging almost 40 points a game. That is astounding. We know, small sample size but for the sake of comparison, the QB1 last season, Russel Wilson, averaged only 24 points per game through the entire season and is only averaging 20 points a game through the first three games this year. FITZMAGIC is doubling up dudes.

Winston is No Competition

His competition, Jameis Winston, once showed a ton of promise and had people hopeful that he could steer the ship for the Bucs but he’s falling to way-side. Through 16 games last season he averaged 13 fantasy points a game. “You can’t compare a full season to 3 games”, that’s probably what you’re thinking. Well, let’s look at Fitzpatrick’s last full season as a starter from a fantasy perspective. He averaged 21.5 fantasy points a game and led his Jets team to 2nd in the AFC East and knocking on the door of running the playoffs. What does that tell you? He’s done this before, he’s led teams and been a fantasy force to boot.

But the argument is why should he start over Jameis Winston. Well, we’ve talked about Fitz-magic this season, over 400 yards a game average, 4 touchdowns a game average, highest completion percentage of his career. What did Jameis do last year?

Jameis had an abysmal 2017 to say the least. 19 touchdowns to 11 interceptions was one of the worst ratios in the league, remember we said the team didn’t have an identity? Lets look at his first 3 game pace to compare to Fitzy. Through 3 games he averaged a respectable 288 yards through the air, Fitz is still averaging more than 100 yards a game than Jameis was able to muster. Well, what about their touchdown-to-interception ratio? How does that stack up? Jameis had 6 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, 2:1, not an ideal ratio but respectable for a quarterback who struggled most of the year where he averaged almost 1 touchdown per game over the remaining 10 games he played.

Everyone Feels Better with a Little Magic

To me, everything about this Buccaneers team feels different, they look like they’re playing with swagger and it’s because Fitz-Magic is at the helm. I don’t think you can justify replacing him until this team has a multi-game meltdown. Jameis has never in his career played like Ryan Fitzpatrick is right now. Bucs fans and fantasy fans alike are happy there’s some magic in Tampa ( atleast for this season )

Ryan Fitzmagic is tantalizing the NFL with his absolutely red-hot start. He is the only quarterback in NFL history to throw for over 400 yards in 3 straight games. He’s […]

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Week 4 Buy and Sell: Wide Receiver and Tight End

Guess what I did? I didn’t listen to myself from past articles, I didn’t sell Desean Jackson, I bought him and boy did that come back to bite me: lesson learned. As all great fantasy lovers do, we soldier on. Here we look at my targets for week 4!

Wide Receiver 

Buying:

Adam Thielen

He’s playing the Rams”, you may say. To you I say NO Marcus Peters and NO Aqib Talib. Through three games he appears to be Kirk Cousin’s favorite target with 44 targets to be exact. He has a 72% catch percentage and has looked like he hasn’t missed a beat and is building off the amazing 2017 campaign he had. I’m putting my chips here because even in a game where the Vikings couldn’t score and the Buffalo D looked surprisingly good, Cousins looked for him often to the tune of 19 targets. I suspect a similar outing coming with the pressure that Suh and Donald can exert and with their coming schedule. Make a package and get him.

Mike Williams

Through 3 games, his target share isn’t much – only 15 targets. I know we in the fantasy community use this a gauge to see if a quarterback is looking one way or another but I think this is deceptive with him. He’s ranked 4th on the depth chart but is the clear number 2 receiver, maybe even number 1 for the Chargers.  When they got within the 20, he saw more targets than Keenan and had a clearly higher completion to touchdown ratio. I’m very excited for this kid going forward and seeing what he can do against a 49ers secondary that is without Richard Sherman is the next test of his involvement in their offense. The chargers have a favorable schedule as the season goes which gives Williams room to grow.

Selling:

Calvin Ridley

 His emergence could be starting. Coming off a fantastic stat line of 7-146-3, making the hands down WR1 for week 3, is making me feel like he’s starting to come to. Week 2 saw him with 4-64-1, a modestly good line opposite Julio. I think Matt Ryan continues to find his rookie but I’m cautious. Lets not forget week 1 when he disappeared for an 0-0-0 line. I don’t think this repeats ever again in this kids career but going into Cincy against a formidable D, I sell him this week, expect the fire to tone down a bit, you could use him to get an upgrade to a legit wide receiver 1.

Jordy Nelson

He’s old, he had one flash of a game, and his team looks terrible all around. I don’t like him going into Cleveland, a team that is certainly on the up-swing and who’s defense honestly looks like one of the top units in the league. Before last week he had a combined 5 catches for 50 yards on 8 targets. I’m not high on his overall potential to be a weekly starter but some people still buy off hype, now’s your chance, preach his history and make the sale.

Tight End

Buying:

Trey Burton

This Chicago offense has been very underwhelming through 3 weeks. We thought they’d take a step forward and really be a well-rounded powerhouse team but I think Mitch is holding them back. His targets have been consistent averaging 5 a game, and week 1 was an outlier where he only caught 1 pass. At some point, this offense has to get going and the brought Burton in to be a pillar for Mitch. My bet is this team starts to figure itself out, week 4 is usually where teams get into a grove and I hope it happens here. Going against Tampa, a game that will more than likely be a shootout, I see big opportunity for Burton and big opportunity for you to buy him on the low.

Selling:

David Njoku

Baker time baby! Which some would think means Njoku should see a boost, right? Wrong. Through 2 games with Tyrod, he saw 14 targets, pretty solid numbers warranting a start. Game 3 he only saw 2 targets and there is the problem. Baker played the entire second half and was in with more than 2 minutes to go in the first half. He had plenty of time to throw the ball and he needed to in order to win the game. The fact that his targets didn’t go Njoku’s way tells me he loves his WRs and RBs and the fact that the Raiders only solid looking defensive piece are their linebackers signals to me that Njoku can see another down week and could see a down year with Baker at the helm. sell em!

Guess what I did? I didn’t listen to myself from past articles, I didn’t sell Desean Jackson, I bought him and boy did that come back to bite me: lesson […]

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Week 3 Buy/Sell Advice: WR & TE

Another week down and another week where the fantasy gods were fickle. Running backs are terrible this year on the ground with some of the presumed top guys not being able to break 60 yards in a game for the second week straight. With that in mind, we look to the air for our fantasy points; Making the right buys and sells can position yourself for success even when your running backs fail you.

Wide Receiver

Buying:

Tyler Lockett

A Seattle Seahawk? What? Yes, a Seahawk, the only one to own. Lockett assumes the number 1 role with Dougy Baldwin out for the foreseeable future and Wilson loves him. For 2 weeks thus far, he’s seen 11 targets for 8 catches, 119 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Oh, that makes him TD dependent you may say! Nay nay I saw back. The Seattle offensive line has struggled through 2 weeks against very good defensive lines. Wilson hasn’t had time to throw but as the schedule eases up, that will change and Lockett’s volume will change to bring him to WR 1 status. He’s a sneaky pickup who may be available for cheap on your waivers or by trade from someone who doesn’t see his value.

Kenny Golladay

9 Targets, 6 receptions, 89 yards, 1 touch down. A very attractive stat line going into a game against a weak secondary in New England. Stafford is a gunslinger and even though Golden Tate and Jones Jr. are there, Golladay is jockeying for the number 2 spot in an offense that still cannot run the game and their defense isn’t good enough to give them a positive game script. I’m buying Golladay going forward.

Selling:

Corey Davis

Zeus is brewing something for the Titans and I don’t like it. How they won that game I don’t know. They have a myriad of injuries along their offensive line, Malcom Butler is getting burnt 5 different ways, and they have issues at quarterback. He’s seen 20 targets through 2 games for 11 receptions, 117 yards and no touchdowns. I’m sorry but, what? How do you have that kind of volume through week 2 but don’t break one for a big gain? I think you sell him on his targets now, I don’t have confidence in this team just yet.

Chris Hogan

 His job is safe for now. We don’t know what Josh Gordon will be in that offense but we do know, he’s taking Hogan’s spot if it all pans out. Then you have to worry about Julian Edelman coming back, Gronk still gets his targets, and they target the running backs out of the back field. There’s a lot of competition going on there and I think Hogan will find himself fourth or fifth in the pecking order once Edelman returns. Selling him this week means your selling him on a high note of 5 targets, 3 receptions, 42 yards and 2 touchdowns. A juicy stat line to hype him up and get some solid players in return. I truly say wait to see what happens but his value is at an all time high right now coming off that performance.

Tight End

Buying:

Jared Cook

Gruden followed through and targeted Amari Cooper, 10 to be exact, in game 2 bringing his total targets to 13. Jared Cook has seen 16 targets through 2 games and has the yardage total to back him up, 229 yards to be exact. I love his volume, I think he’s the borderline the number 1 or 2 option in Oakland depending on the defense and Miami is that defense to give him the big yardage and redzone opportunities. I like him a lot as a consistent TE play.

Selling:

Austin Seferian-Jenkins

He had a decent game week 2. 4 targets, 3 catches for 23 and a touchdown. The problem is this; he’s not their big play guy, nor is he their dump-off guy. He’s just a guy. Between the speed and play-making ability from DeDe and Keelan Cole, the ground-and-pound from Fournette, and the pass catching ability out of the backfield in Yeldon and Grant, ASJ suffers. Don’t commit to him long term, see if you can create a package to get you an upgrade or play the waiver wire. I really don’t like his prospect once Fournette returns.

Another week down and another week where the fantasy gods were fickle. Running backs are terrible this year on the ground with some of the presumed top guys not being […]

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Buying and Selling WRs and TEs for Week 2

What a week. What a glorious week it was. The NFL returned with some very surprising games and some not-so-surprising. But, if you’re a fantasy junkie like me, you loved every minute and also dreaded some of it (looking at you Matt Stafford) As we move into week 2, we look ahead at some of the players I’m loving and loathing at the wide receiver and tight end position.

Wide Receiver

Buying:

Emmanuel Sanders: 

Dat boy Manny, what a game he had and to be honest, a lot of people saw it coming due to his preseason usage. He saw 11 targets and nabbed 10 of them for 135 yards and 1 touchdown. I absolutely love him in PPR leagues and still think he has immense value in standard. The Broncos offense looked good and looked bad at times with Keenum at the wheel but I think his trust in Manny keeps him valuable and if we look at how Keenum targeted the slot with the vikings last year (over 140 targets) We will see something similar this year for the Broncos. The Raiders defense looked to be off to a decent start but that all disappeared in the second half = Manny has a big week this week.

Allen Robinson: 

I’m loving ARob as the year goes. The bears have a favorable schedule for a decent chunk of the season and Trubisky is evolving as a quarterback and I expect for him to get more comfortable as time goes. He saw 7 targets against Green Bay and snagged 4 of them for over 70 yards and no TD. That’s not impressive, I know, but we’ve seen what he can do when healthy and clicking and I expect that offense is just getting ramped up. He depends on Trubisky, obviously, but I don’t think going into week 2 that Mitch is at risk as that Seattle defense didn’t get a lot of pressure on Keenum and I think Chicago has a better O-line than the Broncos. Look for Allen Robinson continue to develop in that offense.

Selling:

Larry Fitzgerald: 

He was a the lone high spot for the Arizona offense but they struggled. While he saw 10 targets, his offense sputtered and couldn’t move the ball nor could the defense get a stop. I expect they will see similar struggles against the Rams and then you’re at an 0-2 start. Their schedule doesn’t get any easier either. You could argue, “He’s Larry, he’ll be okay.” You’re right, he will be, that’s why you sell him now before it gets worse and the offense continues to struggle.

DeSean Jackson:

Oh my lawddd, what a week 1 for DeSean and Fitzmagic. 5 targets with 5 receptions for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns. HE SHOWED HE STILL HAS BIG PLAY ABILITY. The issue is, that is so not likely to happen again. He disappeared last season, I know, I had him. Godwin is nipping at the heels as a young up-and-comer and I think DeSean won’t sustain this level of play for long, nor will the Bucs. Sell him now while his value is at an all-time-high. Oh, did I mention that he may also be injured? So, instead of betting on an aging, injured WR who seemingly needs big plays, sell em and get something in return.

Stash then Pass:

Randall Cobb: 

Whoa, it’s like a ghost reappearing. 10 targets, catching 9 for 142 yards and a touchdown. I know that a decent chunk of yards came from one play but his target volume still stands. Teams are keying in on Adams as the number 1 and I think this can create some holes for Randall. He’s been a top receiver before but then injuries happened. If he stays healthy, I think he could be in the top 20 this year.

Tight End

Buying:

George Kittle: 

Georgie looked like the best weapon in SanFran and Jimmy G looked like he still had a Patriot mentality using the tight end. He saw 9 targets for 5 catches and 90 yards. Kittle was looked at all preseason as someone who could breakout but he had his own injury issue that sidelined him for a good chunk of time going into the season so many were skeptical. We got our answer, he will be used and he seems to have the trust of Jimmy G. They head into week 2 against a Lions defense that flashed and the sputtered out, expect a big game.

Selling: 

Jordan Reed: 

He finally did, he finally played a full game with no injury seeming to hamper him. He ended with 5 targets and 4 catches for 48 yards and touchdown. A pretty solid stat line when it comes to the tight end position. Alex Smith has used tight ends effectively and I think he will again but the issue is with Jordan’s history, he will miss time because of an injury, it’s just a matter of when. I think you sell now while you can make the pitch of “He’s back, Alex loves the TE, he looked.” before he goes down for 4 games or more.

What a week. What a glorious week it was. The NFL returned with some very surprising games and some not-so-surprising. But, if you’re a fantasy junkie like me, you loved […]

Fantasy Football 0

Buying and Selling WRs/TEs for Week 1

From week to week, you’re always looking for the next move, the next one to win all the marbles. Well, here we talk about who I’m buying and selling at the wide receiver and tight end positions for week 1, one of the most tricky times of the year because you never know who will start off hot and how a player’s role will develop.

Buying WR:

Antonio Brown: I know, this generally a no-brainer but even more-so this week. The steelers will be without Lev Bell and in the 16 game pace AB has for past games WITHOUT Lev Bell, he was on track for over 2,000 yards. His targets will remain high and his ability against a Cleveland secondary that is getting it’s first test will be unmatched. I expect a monster week from AB, even with the injury concerns

Keelan Cole: He finished as a dominant force for the Jags at the end of last season getting over 500 yards and 3 touchdowns in the final 5 games of the season. He ended as the Jags best receiver and most targeted. He will resume that role with Marquise Lee going down for the year and their first game against a Giants team that doesn’t appear to have much ammo in their secondary.

Selling WR:

Josh Gordon: The counter part to AB, Gordon has the potential this year but I don’t believe he’s a start in week 1 being that he missed most of training camp. This is by no means a hate article on him but it’s an article of caution in starting him before we get a good look at what he can do. Hue Jackson has already said he wants to ease him into work because of his shortened practice time so…’nough said.

Mike Evans: He’s facing Lattimore, arguably the cornerback that gave him a fit last year and got him suspended, I suspect there will be more of that happening this time around. Couple that with no Jameis Winston, I don’t like this play for week 1. This has nothing to do with Evans, only the environment around him.

Buying TE:

Eric Ebron: He looked really good in the preseason with Andrew Luck, often drawing more targets than the supposed TE1 in Indy, Jack Doyle. Ebron has shown that he has the athletic talent but it’s felt like he’s never fulfilled that potential, this feels like a breakout situation for him and I think the Cincy D doesn’t have the linebacking core to stop Ebron. I like him as a starter for week 1, a lot.

Selling TE:

Evan Engram: This has nothing to do with his play, it’s hard to do that to anyone in week 1. This is entirely the fact that his team is facing a vicious defensive line and Eli already is a QB who isn’t good. Combine that with the hype of Barkley, Odell securing the bag, and Shepard being a great number 2, there’s just a lot of other mouths to feed in the Giants’ offense against a defense that will suffocate them.

 

From week to week, you’re always looking for the next move, the next one to win all the marbles. Well, here we talk about who I’m buying and selling at […]

Fantasy Football 0

Grading the Pros & Cons for All 4th Round ADPs

As we get to the later but still early rounds, we know there is talent to be found. We know people can breakout from these draft positions and win fantasy leagues. Nevertheless, it can still be murky waters in these rounds so we look at round 4 ADP of a 12 person, PPR redraft league, a place where talent is still abundant, but confidence in picks can waiver.

4.01 – Amari Cooper, Value: B

Pro: He’s consistently touted as a breakout receiver and he very well could be. He has the physical stats to dominate in the league and had the college production to match. He’s consistently reached approximately over 100 targets each season he’s been in the league and is fueled by a young stud of a quarterback in Derek Carr who can and will throw as much as Gruden will let him and the last time Gruden was a coach, his QB threw over 500 times that season so imagine Carr matching that kind of production and Cooper benefiting which means his PPR value is even higher than standard (naturally)

Con: In year 3, cooper failed to break 1,000 receiving yards for the first time. He also failed to break a 50% catch rate. For some un-god-known reason, he was snake bitten. Catching 48 balls for 680 yards hurt fantasy owners in PPR leagues because there were WR2s who caught more balls than Cooper who was probably drafted as a WR1. His only saving grace last year was that he had 7 touchdowns. I don’t know man, I’m skeptical on him because he disappeared for no reason, had stones for hands, AND will be facing some stout passing defenses. It should be very interesting to see how he rebounds in a new system.

4.02 – Alex Collins, Value: B+

Pro: Alex Collins is the feature back and his team has made that very clear. In 12 games started last season he reached almost 1,000 yards on the ground with 6 touchdowns. If he started a full season last year he projected to be the RB3 in yards beating out Lev Bell with almost 1,300. He also would have finished ahead of Zeke in touchdowns with 8. He can ball and his team should let him this season. I like him as a sneaky pick because he’s not on the casual fantasy players radar.

Con: He’s on the Ravens. They showed last year and previous years that their offense is inept at playing well. In a PPR league, he may not be as valued as shifty backs who are perceived as receiving backs being that he only caught a little over 20 balls in the 2017 season. He can run hard but if his quarterback doesn’t play well, defenses will know he’s coming. This pick could very well be his ceiling and there are still other running backs available that are in high powered offenses.

4.03 – Zach Ertz, Value: B-

I’ll explain, he’s a fantastic TE that will get you points but this is a very high price to pay for one who can’t hit 1,000 yards as his teams leader in targets and receptions. I like him just not at the top end of the fourth.

Pro: He is a beast at the TE position and one of Carson Wentz favorite targets gathering 110 last season. HE HAD THE SECOND HIGHEST TARGETS on a Superbowl winning team. He also led his team in receptions with 74 and a 67% catch rate, those are some impressive stats. His receptions have stayed consistent over the last 3 years falling in the 70 range, but his touchdowns have went up drastically from doubling each year. He had 8 in the 2017 season, 4 in the 2016. And 2 in the 2015. His team loves him in the redzone and his quarterback trusts him. That trust is important being that Wentz is coming off an ACL injury which means he’ll look to Ertz as his safety blanket if he’s getting into trouble.

Con: Having the highest amount of receptions on his team and not breaking 900 yards means there’s a lot of dink-and-dunk going on for him to get those stats. He’s not a WR which has to be taken into consideration when it comes to his yardage total, but it is a curious point. I value RBs over TEs and at this point in the draft, there’s still RBs available that take priority over TE.

4.04 – Jay Ajayi, Value: B+

Pro: He has potential and we all saw it in 2016 when he got over 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns. He can and does run hard with a bit of shake-and-back mixed in. With the Dolphins last year he had 138 attempts for 465 yards. After being traded to the Eagles and joining a committee backfield, he had 70 attempts for 408 yards, almost catching his total on half the attempts, he can play. He’s also on the Eagles, a high-powered offense that will look to him to be the lead back now that Blount is gone. He has potential. This may be a value pick here.

Con: Knees weak, arms heavy, there’s vomit on his jersey from all the fantasy owners from last season. But seriously, his knees are a concern. The Dolphins frequently made sure to nurse him because of it and I worry that will be the same situation in Philly and thereby losing touches. I’m also just a scorned lover and hate what happened last season, he was useless from a fantasy perspective. This very well could be his ceiling if injuries hamper him.

4.05 – Josh Gordon, Value: B+/A-

Pro: He’s a freak and he may not even be the number one option in an improved offense in Cleveland. His team has been uber supportive of him which I think is great for his mental state and they brought in a reliable, good quarterback to deliver the ball to him. Defenses also have to account for Jarvis Landry and Corey Coleman and Carlos Hyde and David Njoku. There’s a lot to cover on that offense which leaves holes for Gordon to exploit and we know he can, see the 2013 season where he amassed over 1,600 yards ON LESS THAN 90 RECEPTIONS. I know he hasn’t played a full season in 2 year but even in 2017, only playing 3 games, he had 18 catches for over 300 yards, he can produce. This may be a value pick here.

Con: I’m not worried about his play, I’m not worried about his team ( I swear, I think they’ll be good this year ) I’m worried about him. He is his own worst enemy at this point and can tear his whole season and career down. He’s away from the team at the time of this article being written so that could hurt him going into the season and people are speculating that his demons are coming to the forefront again and I hope they’re not.

4.06 – Demaryius Thomas, Value: B-

Thomas could be a value pick if he finds a revival with Keenum, could be a doom pick if he continues his slide and looses targets to younger WRs that Denver has.

Pro: This dude has not seen less than 140 TARGETS since 2011. He posted a 59.3% catch rate last season for 83 receptions. He is the number one option and is a big body option that his new and improved QB, Case Keenum, will love. I expect that offense will turn it around and that PPR value is sky high because of the pure amount of targets this guy will see. Sure he doesn’t have Manning throwing to him anymore but he still has the physical stats to help Keenum succeed, they help each other.

Con: He’s getting old, 30 years old right now, that seems to be the point at which everyone gets concerned about RBs and WRs. I’d say “You have nothing to worry about” because of how much this guy gets looked at no matter the QB but last season may have shown a decline, sure people say the offense was bad, and they were, but he still had 83 receptions on 140 targets and didn’t break 1,000 yards. He saw 23% of targets in his offense inside the 20 mark and only came away with 5 touchdowns, it’s worrying.

4.07 – Kenyan Drake, Value: B

Pro: He had about the same amount of carries as Jay Ajayi did after Ajayi left and bested him in all measurables, 644 yards for 3 touchdowns and an average of 4.8 per carry. He flashed towards the end of the season and I think he has people excited about his potential. That was really the first we saw of him in the professional setting so it’s hard to judge what he can do but he showed us something intriguing. He also flashed receiving ability that we didn’t really see with Ajayi averaging 7.5 yards through the air. He has RB1 potential with RB2 floor in PPR leagues. I think this is face value for him at this pick point.

Con: Literally nothing about him, all about his environment. Miami just seems like a blackhole lately and no really knows what’s going to come with that offense or defense. I’m not sure that they’ll be able to come together to move the ball and I’m not certain how he’ll be used as a feature back in this offense. Picking here isn’t necessarily a bad thing but it’s not necessarily a steal of a pick either.

4.08 – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Value: A

Pro: He’s lining up as the number 2 receiver but showed number 1 ability last season. On 58 receptions and a 74% catch rate, he amassed 917 yards and 7 touchdowns. He is the perfect compliment to Antonio Brown who showed no signs of slowing down and no signs of not needing a double team by every defense. I think the field will be wide open for JuJu who’s going into year 2. I like this kid and I think he will thrive as long as Big Ben, AB, and Bell demand attention and continue to take pressure off of him.

Con: I don’t see any, I JuJu anywhere from round 4 down in PPR leagues.

4.09 – Golden Tate, Value: A

Pro: Since joining Detroit, Matt Stafford has ensured he’s seen over 120 targets every season. Since joining Detroit, he’s averaged a 70% catch rate, have 1,000 receiving yard seasons 3 times. He’s also maintained reception of over 90 every season since joining Detroit. Statistically, this guy is a PPR machine and hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down. Matt Stafford is still playing at an elite level and his team continues to let him air it out because they can’t figure it out on the ground. They bring in Blount which to me signals a commitment to smash it on the ground which should keep defensives respectable. I like Tate in standard formats, I love him in PPR.

Con: He’s getting older, only starting 12 games last year for one reason or another but still got a full season in. His team continues to keep pieces around him and add in new ways to change the offense but his roles remains consistent.

4.10 – Deshaun Watson, Value: B-

Pro: Through 6 games started last season he had 21 touchdowns. 21. As a rookie. 19 came through the air and 2 on the ground (added value from rushing numbers) He had a 61% completion rate and a slightly higher than desirable interception number with. HE WAS A ROOKIE. His team still has super star talent around him with Dhop, great support talent with Fiedorwicz and Will Fuller, RB1 talent in Lamar Miller, and a coach who can plan very well for him. Their defense got better allowing him to not feel the pressure of carrying the team and JJ Watt can help him from the other side of the ball. He has the perfect storm brewing to have a great start to a career.

Con: He’s coming off another ACL injury. All reports are good but you never know how a player will be when you put them into game situations after that kind of injury. He also still has issues with the offensive line. The Texans haven’t solidified a replacement for Duane Brown who they willingly got rid of it and hurts them, as we saw. And it could hurt them more if they can’t protect Watson as he tries to make magic. Magic may be hard to come by as he faces the best defensive line in SACKSOVILLE (It’s in their name, watch out Watson) and Jurrell Casey and Co. at the Titans. He could be running a lot for four games in the coming season. The price you must pay for him is also really really high. There are better aerial quarterbacks that you can draft in the ninth and tenth rounds so this very well could be a ceiling pick and not even guaranteed to be a top 3 QB.

4.11 – Allen Robinson, Value: B-

Pro: He has shown he can dominate the field, see his 2015 season where he had 80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. He is a great player with a great work ethic. He had a down 2016 year, 73-883-6 but I don’t think that was his fault at all, I look at the quarterback for that down year because Bortles could not figure it out. He’s had virtually a full year to recover from an injury and more time to get adjusted to his new team that plans to make him the focal point for the budding QB. I like Allen and I like his potential.

Con: Exactly that, he’s coming off an ACL injury and is on a new team with a new coordinator and a young QB. His positives are also his cons and it becomes about risk management, do you risk a higher draft pick for the potential that he has shown to have?

4.12 – Rashaad Penny, Value: C-

Pro: He was an absolute animal his senior year in college. Over 2,248 yards with 22 touchdowns. He would have had the greatest professional season in the history of the NFL with those stats. He also would have had the greatest fantasy season. He showed his production value in college and that he has the ability to run hard. Many figure he’s pro-ready and his getting a good situation going into Seattle with Danger Russ at the helm and Pete Carroll coaching.

Con: He’s a rookie going to a team that mired in locker room controversy and a terrible offensive line. None of their real running backs broke 300 yards rushing. Their leading rusher was their quarterback with 95 attempts and over 500 yards on the ground. If that’s not sounding alarms in your head than I literally wonder what is going on in your mind, birds? Crickets? I don’t know, but that scares the shit out of me with drafting him in the fourth round, albeit the back of the fourth, but he’s still getting drafted ahead of the likes of Lamar Miller, Mark Ingram, Dion Lewis, backs that have shown they can perform and have the lines in front of them to do it again. I think this is his absolute ceiling and he will end up being a bust at this pick.

***We know ADP changes, these rankings were the current ADP as rated by FantasyFootballCalculator.com when the article was written.

As we get to the later but still early rounds, we know there is talent to be found. We know people can breakout from these draft positions and win fantasy […]

Rankings 0

Grading the Pros & Cons of All 2nd Round ADPs

We all know the heroes of the first round; Bell, Zeke, Gurley are consensus top 3 with a swath of young RBs falling after them across ADP rankings everywhere. For this article, we look at the players who are going in the second round according to FantasyFootballCalculator’s 12 team, Redraft, PPR ADP rankings, and what their pros and cons are at their draft spot. I must say, there’s some mind-boggling players still available at the start of the second round that are values where they are.

2.01 – Odell Beckham Jr.: A+ Value

Pro: You’re getting OBJ at the turn! The last two years this guy was a top 6 pick. Unfortunately for him, injuries and a terrible Giants team has led him to drop. Nonetheless, he still is a young, elite WR who can be uber dangerous over the middle on slant routes. The Giants made improvements to their O-line and added a young back that could be a workhorse which means OBJ can have more time to be free and less eyes on him as he runs wild all over defenses.

Con: Exactly that, there are many mouths to feed on the Giants. Surely Beckham Jr. is the centerpiece, but Barkley may take over as Eli’s play continues to decline and the ability to move the ball offensively comes on the ground and not in the air. He’s still competing with Engram and Sterling Shepard who are of lesser talent and ability but can still perform well and be targets for Manning and OBJ gets the double team from defenders. Also, injuries, he has a history and we never really know if Odell will get a full 16 game season.

2.02 – Julio Jones: A+ Value

Pro: He is a freak of a human specimen. Arguably one of the most dominate receivers with big play ability. He’s used to being the defensive focal point and still producing numbers. Last season he eclipsed 80 receptions for over 1,400 yards and saw the highest volume of targets on from Matty Ice. Things won’t change much with only added benefit coming in the way of young rookie Calvin Ridley,who will warrant defensive attention and give Jones the chance to dominate.

Con: His redzone production has decreased over the last 3 years. 8-6-3 has been the descending order of TDs that he’s caught. We’re not quite sure why; maybe it’s a harder coverage that defensives put on him when they get inside the 20, maybe it’s pressure? Inside the 10-yard mark, Jones received over 30% of targets in 2017. His catch rate? 36%. Something has to change otherwise owners will be praying for more 1,000 yard seasons and high volume of catches. But, if that marriage of redzone efficiency with total overall play can happen, you’re getting a value at 2.02 when he should be a 1.04/5 player.

2.03 – Devonta Freeman: B+ Value

Pro: 2015 and 2016 were the years of Freeman. He was in the conversation as top 6 pick worthy and on par with DJ, Bell, and Zeke. He has dual threat ability that can change games. In both seasons he eclipsed 1,000 yards with 11 TD JUST ON THE GROUND. Through the air he saw even better usage averaging roughly 8 yards per catch. He can do it all and Ryan knows this and trusts him. They had an offensive coordinator change that may have affected him in 2017 but he had another off-season to work with him and got paid, I expect big things from him this year.

Con: 2017 was a down year for Freeman. With less than 200 rushing attempts and less than 40 catches, his numbers weren’t great and only scored owners about 160 points. The reason? You could point to Sarkisian running the offense and not using Freeman right, and you can point to the injury. It came out after the season that he played most of it with a knee injury hampering him. He’s had time to address and correct that issue but how much does he improve? Does Sark come to his sense and realize he has a swiss army knife in the backfield that he should use? There’s a lot of questions and I find Julio and Devonta in a situation I see in the Giants, too many mouths to feed.

2.04 – Michael Thomas: A+ Value

Pro: He is the number one WR in arguably the most high-powered offense in the league. In his two seasons he’s caught more than 90 passes and beat 1,000 yards each time meaning his value in a full point PPR league is extreme, not to mention he did one of those seasons while considered the number 2 behind Cooks. His numbers should remain consistent especially with the saints losing Ingram for the start of the season. Brees will continue to lean on him even with the arrival of Cameron Meredith who I don’t see making much of an impact to Thomas’s stats.

Con: There really isn’t one. Teams can plan for him defensively, but this is a pick that I think you can’t go wrong with.

2.05 – Keenan Allen: B Value

Pro: He’s athletic and skilled with his routes, he can create a mismatch mostly anywhere and is coming off a 102-1,393-6 season so he has momentum going into the new season. He is a dream in PPR and has the added benefit of eating into the share of targets that would have been for Hunter Henry. Rivers doesn’t seem to age and continues his consistent play and combo that with Melvin Gordon keeping defensives honest, he has the perfect storm of a situation to see another 100 catch season.

Con: He’s an injury risk in the worst way, I’m sure he cost a lot of fantasy player some games in 2016 when he was only available for 6 catches before going down for the year. It was great to see him return in full but with Keenan, injuries always have to be in mind any time he goes down hard. He also has guaranteed match-ups with some of the top rated CBs in the league when he sees the Rams, Cardinals, and Broncos, meaning if he has even the slightest injury hampering him, those games could be a wash. Drafting him at 2.05 may be drafting him at his ceiling.

2.06 – Christian McCaffery: B- Value

Pro: As a rookie he had over 1,000 combined yards and 7 TDs. He was one of Carolina’s most consistent pass catchers with 80 catches. Those numbers and usage figure to go up in year 2. He has the speed and agility to be lethal out of the backfield which could be needed with the departure of guard Andrew Norwell.

Con: The panthers brought in CJ Anderson, who isn’t a slouch and just had the unfortunate luck of being behind a shoddy Broncos offensive line. He will certainly compete and take away carries from CMC especially in those “bruising” situations as he’s more of the power runner while CMC is the shifty receiving back. Also, Carolina brought in DJ Moore during the draft, a great, young receiver who will warrant targets from Newton thereby lessening the share for CMC. I think 2.06 is a reach on him, round 3 is where I have my target point on CMC, had they not signed Anderson, this may be a good spot to get great value on him.

2.07 – Devante Adams: B+ Value

Pro: He is now the top WR for arguably the best QB in the league. Green Bay relies on throwing the ball to move their offense and Adams will benefit from more targets because of that. Over the past 2 years as the number 2 behind Jordy Nelson, he still broke 70 catches AND double-digit touchdowns. I expect those numbers will rise as he assumes the role of Rodgers favorite target for every phase of the offense, not just the redzone. He’ll hit 90 catches and 10 touchdowns this year, quote me on it.

Con: He’s the number 1 receiver in an offense that can’t run the ball effectively meaning defenses know to focus their coverage packages on him. Rodgers obviously still has the ability to find Adams wherever the coverage is on him but it comes down to Adams’ ability to make the catch with the pressure of getting number 1 WR coverage. I also feel that this pick may be overpaying for him if you’re in a league with people who aren’t fantasy freaks but if you’re in a league WITH fantasy freaks, this could end up being a value grab towards the back of the second.

2.08 – AJ Green: A- Value

Pro: THIS SCREAMS VALUE. He has been a consistent 1,000 yard receiver (apart from when he went down with injury) even when the Bengals offense has been bad. He’s also done this, consistently, with under 80 catches. He’s seen over 100 targets in every single one of his seasons of play and I don’t think that will decrease. Green is a monster and has thrived regardless of what the Bengals have done elsewhere on their offense. They made improvements to their offensive line which we hope gives Dalton more time to throw. We expect a breakout sophomore year from Mixon who will warrant defensive attention, and all this spells great games for Aj Green.

Con: His catch percentage is low, 52% in the 2017 season. It certainly could be because he’s always blanketed in coverage, or that Dalton isn’t making the throws but it’s concerning when in a PPR league, you want those catches, you need them. He’s also reaching age 30 and while we’re seeing players play longer, we still don’t know when their cliffs are coming. He’s still a value here but where’s the cliff?

 

2.09 – Jerick McKinnon: C+ Value

Pro: He is elusive and can both run hard and catch out of the backfield. While he’s never been a feature back never eclipsing 600 rushing yards on a season, he has shown great hands and ability to be a receiver out of the backfield; from 2016 to 2017 he almost doubled his total receiving yards on only 8 more catches. I think he’s dangerous especially because he’s in Kyle Shanahan’s system; he’s improved shift RBs throughout his career (see Devonta Freeman BEFORE Sarkisian got there) and I believe that Shanahan and Jimmy G can turn McKinnon into a lethal, dual threat weapon.

Con: He’s never been a feature back with feature back workload. Some might say that’s not an issue but it still changes how his body will gather wear-and-tear throughout the year. Also, Matt Brieda showed a lot of promise for SanFran and some thought he may even assume the lead back role when Hyde left, if he shows growth and McKinnon doesn’t get off to the start that he’s getting paid to, Brieda will eat into his playing time. I think McKinnon is a reach at 2.09 when there’s still guys like Jordan Howard, at this spot you’re praying he gets 1k/1k like David Johnson so lustfully wants for himself.

2.10 – LeSean McCoy C+/B-

Pro: Oh how the mighty have fallen. McCoy used to be an early first rounder because of his ability to make cuts, find holes in the defense, and burst through. As well, his ability to be a receiving back is one that’s in the upper echelon of the league. Last year on a Bills squad that couldn’t figure it out he still garnered over 1,000 yards on the ground with almost 60 catches, he was their primary weapon and still will be giving him significant RB1 value.

Con: He’s going to be 30 and we all know how that goes for RBs. Not to mention, he does have an injury history. So, you’re taking a 30 year old, workhorse RB with a injury history, on a team that has terrible starting QBs in McCarron and Peterman (Oh please do not let Peterson start) AND they lost key starters on their offensive line? That’s a risky risky riskyyyy move. If they had top flight WRs I’d say this could work but they don’t really have that because Kelvin Benjamin can’t stay healthy. McCoy is their focal point, everyone knows that, and every defense playing them knows their QB is awful and their line is also now in the lower tier of the league due to injuries/retirements. I’d feel comfortable drafting McCoy in the end of the third/fourth round.

2.11 – Rob Gronkowski: A Value

Pro: No one has ever said Gronk is an easy matchup, defenses cannot handle him. When healthy, he’s guaranteed 1,000 yards in the air and he’s guaranteed to be Brady’s favorite redzone target, he even holds the current record for TDs in a season for tight ends. Last year he saw great production resulting in a 69-1,084-8 stat line with a 65% catch rate, those are pretty good stats for a guy who only played 14 games. You combine that with the Patriot’s genius when it comes to scheming against defenses and the fact that the GOAT is still quarterbacking at a high level and Gronk essentially becomes the game changer every week because there is such a wide gap between him and other TEs. The pats start off hot against 2 of what could be the leagues top defenses in Sacksonville and the Texans but then their schedule simmers down and gives Gronk the ability to play against weaker opponents.

Con: He hasn’t played a full season since his sophomore year. I think we all know that drafting Gronk means you’re playing on borrowed time and expecting to get up in the standings early in the season before he does miss time, it’s practically certain it will happen at this point. He’s also bounced around the thought of retirement which scares me because he’s always been a carefree guy and does that mean he will be carefree about his performance on the field this year?

2.12 – Mike Evans: B+ Value

Pro: He’s never had less than a 1,000 yard season which means Tampa loves to find him deep and often. He’s a big body wideout who gets physical and I love his play style, I think he in the upper echelon for receivers both from an impact and fantasy perspective. I think Tampa’s schedule will warrant them being in shootouts often and only maximizes the likelihood that Evans sees targets, he’s never seen below 120 targets in a season and that spells out mucho upside for him to perform often for his owners.

Con: Jameis isn’t reliable as a QB and is starting the season suspended. While he still is Winston’s favorite target, the QB can and does effect WRs so this must be a concern with owners both while Fitz makes the start and when Jameis comes back. While Evans does see a plethora of targets, his catch percentage is low, finishing last year with a 52% rating. Combine that with an even worse catch percentage when inside the 20 mark, 18.7%, and his hands or the positioning of the ball are worrisome, the only saving grace here is that he sees such a large amount of targets. Additionally, with that catch rate inside the 20 comes worries about the TDs and last year he had 5, the year before that 12, the year before that 3, the year before that 12, do you see the pattern that I do? He’s a roller coaster in the redzone so if you’re buying in 2018 you’re buying that the roller coaster will continue and he will have an up year for TDs.

***We know ADP changes frequently, when this article was created this was the order of ADP for the second round at that time according to Fantasy Football Calculator’s 12 team, PPR ADP ranking.

We all know the heroes of the first round; Bell, Zeke, Gurley are consensus top 3 with a swath of young RBs falling after them across ADP rankings everywhere. For […]

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3 Reasons to Pump the Brakes on David Johnson

David Johnson, the former number 1 RB in fantasy? David Johnson, the dual threat dynamo? David Johnson, the man who wants 1000/1000? David Johnson, the man you shouldn’t take in the top 3 of redraft leagues? Yeah, that David Yan-Son (Think an over-exaggerated Boston accent) I’m a believer that in those first 3 picks there are better options and here’s why.

1. The Team

The Cards have experienced a lot of change this off season. A new coach with schemes, 2 new QBs to drive the ship, a decrease in talent on the defensive side (RIP Honey Badger) and no real improvements to the offensive line (I’m not sold on Andre Smith and Justin Pugh is a “Meh” addition)

The QB room is interesting with the always-injured Sam Bradford and Josh Rosen. It’s almost a guarantee that Bradford will go down with an injury in which case, is Rosen as ready as everyone thinks he is? There was a reason he slid to #10, was it his attitude? Maybe. But if you’re a QB needy team in the top 9 picks, if he’s as good as you think, why didn’t you take him? I don’t know, maybe I’m a skeptic but their QB’s don’t sell me on giving him a favorable game script.

But wait, isn’t he a great receiving back and would benefit from that? Yes, he is uber dynamic. BUT, teams know this. They know what to expect out of his usage at this point. If you think any defense won’t have a spy on him the entire game you’re out of your mind. There’s no real threats outside of the ageless Larry Fitz but he could see the cliff at any point and when does, their team becomes one-dimensional through DJ.

2. The Injury

As mentioned in a previous article by my colleagues, he was probably kept out of the entire season because Arizona had no playoffs hopes. This definitely has some substance to it but if you’re a competitor, which DJ is supposed to be, wouldn’t you want to get some action before the season ends regardless? I know, sometimes a fracture can be worse than a break and for a RB who has to handle the ball and take hits, a fractured wrist is detrimental as we saw.

But, players have played with wrist injuries. Brian Cushing played part of 2014 with a broken wrist! At some point, you have to tough it out. If the injury happened mid way through the season, fine, you get a pass. But no, it happened almost on the first drive of the season. You’re telling me if you’re an athletic freak like he is, your body doesn’t heal that injury in 12 weeks or less and allow you to play? I don’t know man, something’s telling me he didn’t want to play. Where’s the fire?

3. The Competition 

The Cardinals are in an interesting position within their division, they certainly won’t be first but they could very well be last.

The Rams are the clear dominatrix of this division so that’s 2 games where DJ has to see what will probably be the best defense in the league and that’s 2 games where his team will certainly struggle on the offensive side of the ball. I can’t imagine it’s going to be easy for Arizona to run the ball against Aaron Donald, reigning defensive MVP and his new smash brother in Suh. I also imagine that they’ll be able to use the reigning offensive MVP in Todd Gurley to keep the ball away from DJ and Co. So reduce DJ’s value to 14 games, not 16.

Next, SanFran, the hot team, the darkhorse, all thanks to Jimmy G. They have a new swagger about them after winning the last 5 games of their season, beating the top defense in Sacksonville, and having a fairly interesting off season. I think this team will be better than last years on both sides of the ball. We’re not here to talk about them as a whole but why DJ will be effected: Buckner and Solomon (Sounds like a law firm) SanFran has premium young talent on their defensive line and made upgrades to the backend. I think they have a real chance to give Arizona’s offensive line some hell which spells some issues for our RB. I know everyone thinks that SanFran’s defense was a weakness and it was, but it got better and we’ll see that. I could see Johnson splitting this series with one game producing stellar RB1/Elite numbers and the other producing an RB2/3 performance.

Finally, Seattle. They’re in a rebuild without a doubt and these could be games where Johnson gets a breakout. Their defense is looking like it’s in shambles and has holes all over the roster and it certainly does. But, they still have Russell Danger Wilson. I think his ability to keep Seattle in games against a lesser Cardinal’s defense will force a shootout where DJ could see great usage in the passing game or he could not. Remember, teams will plan for him and Pete Carroll isn’t a slouch when it comes to coaching, sans not running the ball with Marshawn to close out the superbowl (I’m a patriots fan, so thank you!) Either way, that team will be ready for David Johnson and that could hinder his play.

In closing

Will DJ be a top RB? Definitely. But, I think there will be better options ahead of him and I’d pause to think about taking him if I had the third pick. Its hard to truly know the future for a player and his past indicates he can do it even if it’s only 1.5 years worth of footage. But exactly that, only 1.5 years and the other time spent injured and not playing the game. It’s worrisome.

David Johnson, the former number 1 RB in fantasy? David Johnson, the dual threat dynamo? David Johnson, the man who wants 1000/1000? David Johnson, the man you shouldn’t take in […]