Biggest Fantasy Impact: NFC Rookies

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: RB Tony Pollard

Dallas didn’t spend a ton of draft capital on offensive skill players.  The most significant skill player they invested in was Tony Pollard. Out of Memphis, Pollard is a patient runner that has great top end speed.  Pollard will initially contribute to the Cowboys as a kick and punt returner, but if he is given the opportunity, Pollard could be a nice change of pace back for Ezekiel Elliott.  Also, if your league gives points for return yards, Pollard definitely gets a bump.

Philadelphia Eagles: RB Miles Sanders

After acquiring Jordan Howard via trade, Philadelphia invested a 2nd round pick in Miles Sanders.  Sanders is the most talented and well rounded running back in this backfield. If Philadelphia can commit to Sanders and make him the primary running back, he can end up as a RB 2 as early as this season.  However, with Howard there and Philadelphia’s recent history, it’s hard to rely on the Eagles to give Sanders the desired workload this season.

Washington Redskins: QB Dwayne Haskins

I really like what Washington did in this draft.  Even though I am not a huge Dwayne Haskins fan, getting him at 15 without having to move up was great for Washington. Then they snag his OSU teammate Terry McLaurin and NC State standout Kelvin Harmon.  Haskins is easily the most talented QB in Washington. Even if he isn’t the Week 1 starter, Haskins should see the field this season and instantly add some juice to this offense.

New York Giants:  QB Daniel Jones

New York has been catching a lot of heat since they drafted Daniel Jones with the 6th overall pick in draft.  Jones looks the part of a franchise QB, but his film leaves a lot of the community hesitant to buy in. I really hope we are all wrong about Jones.  I would love for him to be able to come in after Eli Manning and be the starter for the New York Giants for the next 10 years. Regardless of what GM David Gettleman says, Jones should get the opportunity to play this year or next. If that is the case, it’s hard to imagine he would be worse for the fantasy options then Manning.  

NFC South

New Orleans Saints: TE Alize Mack

Considering Mack was drafted in the 7th round of the NFL Draft, this may be a bit of a stretch.  However, Mack does have some intriguing skills that could one day translate into fantasy production.  Mack has decent speed and works the seam pretty well. With time to develop under Sean Payton, Mack could maybe become a decent TE 2 for fantasy some day.  He shouldn’t be drafted in rookie draft, but could be a nice stash on your taxi squads.

Atlanta Falcons: iOL Chris Lindstrom and OT Kaleb McGary

Rather then trying to sell you all on Qadree Ollison and Marcus Green, I think it would be better to talk about the 2 first round lineman Atlanta drafted.  Getting Lindstrom and trading up for McGary shows us that Atlanta is going to continue trying to improve the run game. Both guys are very good run blockers and will help Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith out of the backfield.  The lack of significant draft capital spent at running back says that Atlanta still has faith in Freeman.

Carolina Panthers: QB Will Grier

I am a huge Will Grier fan and really like the fit for Carolina.  Obviously Grier won’t be an immediate starter, but Grier is instantly a premier backup QB.  And who knows, if Cam Newton’s shoulder is really messed up, Grier can do enough to keep the offensive weapons in Carolina fantasy relevant.  If Newton continues to take hits and misses significant time, I would feel very comfortable having Grier as a QB 2.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:  WR Scott Miller

Similar to New Orleans, Tampa Bay spent most of the draft improving their defense.  The only offensive player they picked was Scott Miller in the 6th round. Miller is undersized, but has a ton of speed. He may be a nice field stretcher, but I don’t think he’s even worth a spot on a taxi squad.

NFC North

Chicago Bears: RB David Montgomery

I absolutely love this fit for both Montgomery and Chicago.  For whatever reason, I’ve heard way to many people saying that Montgomery is just a slightly better Jordan Howard.  Montgomery has more talent and is way more versatile than Howard. Montgomery is the best pure runner on this roster and is lined up to be the primary 2 down back for Chicago. Montgomery showed solid pass catching chops and will also be able to contribute in the passing game. Be excited people! Montgomery is going to be a stud in Chicago.

Minnesota Vikings: TE Irv Smith Jr.

See ya later Kyle Rudolph! Irv Smith is the new sheriff in Minnesota.  With Kyle Rudolph being owed over $7 million and no guaranteed money left, it is looking like Rudolph will be cut before the 2019 season starts.  If that is the case, Smith will have the opportunity to start producing right away. Smith is a big, athletic target that should be a great fit in this offense.  

Green Bay Packers: TE Jace Sternberger

Jace Sternberger is a staff favorite over here at the Fantasy Fanalysts.  He plays tight end, but in all honesty, he’s more like a big bodied wide receiver. Sternberger has reliable hands and shows a lot of promise as a route runner. He may not have a ton of production his rookie season, but Sternberger definitely has potential to become a low end TE1.  

Detroit Lions: TE TJ Hockenson

TJ Hockenson is the best tight end out of this class.  On top of being great as a receiver, Hockenson is a wonderful blocker.  Hockenson plays with the type of energy and attitude that everybody loves.  His ability to block will allow him to be on the field every down and start contributing right away. When ranking him for dynasty purposes, Hockenson is already a top 12 tight end.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams: RB Darrell Henderson

I was/am a huge Darrell Henderson fan.  He is extremely quick, is a capable pass catcher and had a ton of production while at Memphis.  I don’t think Los Angeles invests an early 3rd round pick on a running back unless they are at least slightly concerned with Todd Gurley’s knee.  I expect Henderson to take some of Gurley’s workload and have a ton of upside if Gurley were to ever miss time.

Seattle Seahawks: WR DK Metcalf

This was a great fit for DK Metcalf.  Russell Wilson is one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL and is going to find ways to get Metcalf the ball.  Even if the Seattle offense is run heavy, Metcalf showed that he can produce on limited targets. Metcalf has one of the highest ceilings in this class.  If he can come close to reaching that ceiling, he is going to be a stud in this league.

San Francisco 49ers: WR Deebo Samuel

Deebo Samuel is possibly the most exciting prospect in this class when he has the ball in his hands.  He has good speed and is great after contact. With George Kittle and Dante Pettis returning, it’s hard to tell how much Samuel will produce right away.  If given the opportunity, Samuel has the talent to be a WR 2 for fantasy purposes.

Arizona Cardinals: QB Kyler Murray

As it was speculated for months, Arizona picked Kyler Murray with the 1st overall pick in the NFL draft.  On top of that, Arizona drafted Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler and KeeSean Johnson. Murray has the talent, the weapons and hopefully the scheme with Kliff Klingsbury to be a big time fantasy producer.  With his arm talent and athleticism, I don’t think it is to crazy to think that Murray could be a top 12 QB in 2019. This Arizona offense has the chance to be extremely fun.

Preeminent vs The Undistinguished: Ranking Rookie Quarterbacks

Welcome to my rookie rankings based on my recent article detailing differences between prospects drafted in round 1-5 versus 6-7+UDFA! I figured out an interesting way to not only help everyone draft more successful teams, but to know how to value positions a little better going forward.

To get the breakdown you can visit the previous article here which has the thread that started it all as well.

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I’m Going to Let You Finish but First…

Before I begin, I’d like to add a little more detail into the success of the QB position. Quarterback has less success than any other fantasy skill position (QB, WR, TE, RB). The twitter thread discussed rounds 6-7/UDFAs but what about the other rounds?

In the last 10 years, only 9 quarterbacks not drafted in the first round have averaged at least 184 fantasy points per season, in standard quarterback scoring formats. 184 fantasy points is equal to the average QB24 finish in that same time span-meaning that just the following players have become fantasy football relevant without being drafted in the first round:

RoundName
2Andy Dalton
2Colin Kaepernick
2Derek Carr
2Geno Smith
3Russell Wilson
3Nick Foles
3Jacoby Brissett
4Dak Prescott
4Kirk Cousins

No quarterback drafted after round 4 has become fantasy football relevant over the past 10 seasons.

With that being said, it tempers my expectations when ranking my quarterbacks. This isn’t to say I’m counting them out or they’re not in a good spot, it’s just part of how I value said player.

Before I get into these ranks. I don’t do all-inclusive ranks because whenever you draft, it’s all about NEED. Best available at each position is how I do things. Sure, some drafts you just take best available, but it’s just common practice for me to rank everyone separate. Also, these ranks factor in landing spot, draft stock and depth chart.

The Preeminent Tier

RankRoundNameTeam
11Kyler MurrayCardinals
21Dwayne HaskinsRedskins
32Drew LockBroncos
4 1Daniel JonesGiants
53Will GrierPanthers
64Jarrett StidhamPatriots
73Ryan FinleyBengals

The Undistinguished Tier

86Easton StickChargers
96Clayton ThorsonEagles
106Gardner MinshewJaguars
116Trace McSorelyRavens
12UDFATyree JacksonBills
13UDFABrett RypienBroncos
14UDFAJordan Ta’amuRaiders
15UDFAJacob DolegalaBengals
16UDFADavid BloughBrowns
17UDFAKyle ShurmurChiefs
18UDFADevlin HodgesSteelers

You may not be drafting the “undistinguished” as starters but what I do see, is that guys like these will be great spot starts when the starters go down. Some of them will need a good matchup too, but like I said, “dont count them out”. As always with this tier, leave them on waivers or stash them for rainy day “break if nececssary” type situations.

Next Time On the Preeminent vs the Undistinguished….

We’ll be getting into tight ends!

Opportunity vs Ability: NFL Smarts in Rookie Drafts

We all know a kid sometime in our past who had all the talent in the world, but never made it. It could’ve been due to many different circumstances like money for college, more important responsibility at home, couldn’t stay out of trouble and so on. It still doesn’t change the fact that sometimes people just miss out.

In terms of the NFL, you have to add in the fact that every scouting department isn’t created equally and even if they were, they don’t make the choices. The ones choosing could be sold on someone who is just terrible compared to other guys, but there’s nothing we can do about it. The only things we can do is hedge those decisions for fantasy, which is what I’m here to help you do.

Opportunity’s Call

When dealing with fantasy football we like to have guys who have a huge opportunity share in the offense (or defense with IDP leagues). History shows we have to be the same with our rookie drafts.

Here’s why you should, for the most part, avoid guys (with your high picks) drafted in the 6-7 rounds and undrafted free agent pools:

In last 10 years, here are some of the hits for 6-7 rounders and UDFAs. From a recent conversation I had, I decided to change it from an all inclusive 100 PPR points or 6.25 ppg, to position specific. My baseline for success for each position was someone you’d be flexing or starting in most leagues.

Quarterbacks (3 year average of the QB24 = 184 points)

7 QBs have had success in rounds 6-7 with only 4 out of the 7 having done it more than once:

Tom Brady, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tyrod Taylor and Matt Cassel

The UDFA to accomplish this feat:

Tony Romo, Case Keenum and Kurt Warner.

Wide Receivers (3 year average of the WR36 = 166 points)

6 receivers have done it with only 4 out of 6 having done it more than once:

Antonio Brown, Julian Edelman, Pierre Garcon & Steve Johnson.

20 UDFAs did it with just 9 of them doing it more than once. The most notable:

Wes Welker, Doug Baldwin, Victor Cruz, Adam Thielen, and Willie Snead

Michelle Magdziuk @BallBLastEm made a great observation that cannot be over looked:

Running Backs (3 year average of the RB36 = 134 points)

9 running backs were a RB36 or better and only 6 of them did it more than once:

Rashad Jennings, Alfred Morris, Latavius Murray, Theo Riddick, Andre Ellington, and Justin Forsett

The undrafted accomplished this 22 times with 12 having continued success:

Fred Jackson, Isaiah Crowell, Adrian Foster, Pierre Thomas, Danny Woodhead, C.J. Anderson, Joique Bell, LeGarette Blount, Chris Ivory, Ryan Grant, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and Mike Tolbert

Tight Ends (3 year average of the TE24 = 93 points)

The TEs that have done it:

Charles Clay, Zach Miller, Brandon Myers, Mychal Rivera, and Ryan Griffin

The only undrafted free agents to do it:

Antonio Gates, Cameron Brate, Jack Doyle, Will Tye, Jake Ballard, Trey Burton, Larry Donnell, and Tim Wright

It’s simple, if the TEAM invests in them, WE have to invest accordingly. The caveat here is that you don’t forget about the late round/UDFA guys.

Allen Iverson’s Law: Talkin’ Bout Practice

One of the best practices is the utilization of your local taxi squad IF you have the room or regular roster if you have the spots. If through the draft process, you found a guy or guys whom you’ve just become enamored with, GO GET THEM. Don’t be dissuaded from getting your guys, just utilize your own draft capital for guys with true draft capital. This is because on average, for every position except quarterback, 1-2 guys per year emerge from that murky junkyard of 6-7 rounders and undrafted free agents to become PPR relevant at least once. Some of these guys end up with long term success, A LOT don’t.

A Rule of Thumb:

There is a much bigger area for “boom-bust” in 6-7/udfa areas than rounds 1-5.

Which is why I believe that these guys are sometimes better served for waivers later on. If they don’t end up free agents in your league, it’s ok. Let someone hold onto your asset for you until it’s time to obtain. Once that player starts tracking for success, you have to act before the price raises or otherwise you over pay in a trade vs making that asset a throw in for an otherwise “underwhelming” trade in the eyes of everyone but you. It’s all about timing. The trick is to not go in to negotiations showing your hand and you’ll be just fine.

Another good practice is to grab these guys when an injury happens to guys ahead of them on the depth chart. This is generally a key time where they can begin to be able to garner more snap counts (time on the field) if they perform well enough.

Going Forward

My pinned thread from Twitter and this article are just a warm-up for a series of articles and rankings so, be on the lookout for those, which will come directly after this.

A small hint to my ranking content-they will be different than you’ve seen before! Hopefully this has helped you prepare for your rookie drafts, stay tuned!

Biggest Fantasy Football Impact Pick: AFC

Now that the draft is over, we finally have landing spots for some of our favorite rookies! Today we’re going to go through each AFC team to find each rookie who will have the biggest impact when it comes to fantasy. Some will have instant impact, some will have small impact, while some will have sneaky impact. Let’s get started!

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens: Marquise Brown, WR

Brown’s ability to separate from defenders with his sheer athleticism (wont be winning with size) will make him a great weapon for Lamar Jackson. Look for him to be a better John Brown and when Jackson looks to throw, he’ll have a very dependable target to throw to. Brown makes defenses have to respect his ability and opens it up for Jackson and Mark Ingram.

Cincinnati Bengals: The RBs

They drafted (albeit 6th rounders) Rodney Anderson and Traveon Williams while Mark Walton was waived, so I believe this was a depth move with sleeper potential. I have a feeling that one of these guys could end up working into both Bernard and/or Mixon’s workload. This could kill off some production and cause these guys to drop in value as well.

Cleveland Browns: The Defense

Cleveland really hit this draft for defense and it’s ok because they are absolutely well off in the offensive department. With that being said, Cleveland really bolstered their defense and gave their team a chance to have a great D/ST (yes I play in leagues that still use this position). With their team already in the bottom 5, the only way is up!

Pittsburgh Steelers: Diontae Johnson, WR

Already being anointed as the new #84, Diontae Johnson definitely has the ability and draft stock to come in and contribute immediately. He gives the Steelers a piece for the future alongside Juju and Washington. Yes Moncrief is there, but he’ll be losing snaps to this kid before long. He’s great against the press and should be being drafted in dynasty for sure. He’s definitely got sleeper impact.

AFC South

Houston Texans: Kahale Warring, TE

Warring did himself a world of justice throughout the draft process and ended up going very high in a draft thick with TE talent. With the team already having a few tight ends on the roster already, this was a head-scratcher. With his draft stock, it definitely means he’s here to stay and others will be waived. As far as fantasy goes, he just makes this offense a TE by committee further pushing us away from Houston TEs.

Indianapolis Colts: Parris Campbell, WR

This is one of the best places he could go. Not much competition for WR2, Campbell comes in as an immediate contributor. He should eventually be able to sully Funchess’ value toward mid-late season (if it takes that long). He also makes Luck an even more enticing selection with what he can accomplish in the slot as well as outside (contrary to popular belief).

Jacksonville Jaguars: Josh Oliver, TE

Definitely a project, but I project him as the TE1 in Jacksonville eventually. Geoff Swaim ain’t it and Josh Oliver can be on par with the top TEs in this class if he can learn how to block better. Could be the AFC’s Jason Witten; good across the middle of the field and no (and I mean no) high point ability whatsoever.

Tennessee Titans: AJ Brown, WR

A bit of a scary landing spot given who his QB is, AJ Brown impacts both Mariota and Corey Davis. The Titans don’t really have anybody outside of Davis who are difference makers at the level of AJ. Delanie was in the past, but father time is undefeated and that injury at his age will have it’s effects. Corey Davis will no longer have so much focused on him to stop him which boosts his value. The only thing is hoping that Mariota (like Lamar Jackson) can throw the ball a little more next season.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills: Dawson Knox, TE

I’m going to try and contain myself here, but I believe he could end up top 2 in this draft at the position. Buffalo just got a great weapon for Josh Allen who is an upgrade from Croom and will eventually supplant Kroft. With TEs, the rule is to wait and wait we shall. Don’t be filled with regret for not drafting him. He’s got draft stock, a clear path to start and a young QB to grow with. He’s going to be one of the best parts of this offense in a few years, just watch.

Miami Dolphins: Josh Rosen, QB

Josh isn’t a rookie, but was the best offensive asset they acquired in the draft. Still young and talented, he goes into a situation where he’s got a chance to take the keys and go. He (and Fitzpatrick when he plays) are an immediate boost for the receivers in Miami which excites me even more for my Gesicki shares.

New England Patriots: N’Keal Harry, WR

I was/am still not high on the kid after studying his game tape, but he will definitely produce/be given the opportunity to produce. Harry represents something the Pats haven’t done since 1996, draft a WR in the 1st round. I see him having the same success that Josh Gordon was having, but I don’t expect it to be immediate. I expect it to really start to show in year 2.

New York Jets: Trevon Wesco, TE

No, he’s not the guy you’re drafting in rookie drafts, he’s the guy who excites you for the sake of Darnold and Lev Bell. With the Jets already having drafted Chris Herndon in the same round last year, they brought in a TE who is much better at all the blocking aspects. Keep an eye out for his developing catching ability, could surprise in his production there which could put Herndon behind him on the depth chart. However, don’t expect anything for a few years. He’s more of a project who will possibly blossom in years 4-5.

AFC West

Denver Broncos: Noah Fant, TE

Already announced the starter, Fant has a chance to be the most productive rookie TE this year. I believe he’ll get the opportunities early and often purely because of his skill as a receiver. I don’t, however, think he’ll be a top TE overall this year. It’s hard for rookies to come by production at this position early on in their careers. With Fant, it’ll be no different unless Manny Sanders, Daesean Hamilton and Courtland Sutton suffer significant injuries reminiscent of the 2017 Giants with Engram.

Kansas City Chiefs: Mecole Hardman, WR

The Chiefs went out and got their possible replacement speedster for the same role of Tyreek Hill. If Hill is waived, suspended or both, Hardman will step into that role. I don’t expect the production right away, but man will he have breakaway plays that will drop your jaw. He essentially could be a less consistent Hill. My notes on him from film are filled with the words FAST in all capital letters so expect an electric player. He’s also good at finding an assignment to block which will keep him on the field a little more.

Oakland Raiders: Josh Jacobs, RB

He WAS my RB2 coming into the draft behind David Montgomery, but now his situation has “vaulted” him into first place. He’s a lead back and he’ll get the chance to prove that with Crowell going down for the season. The Doug Martin signing is a depth play while Jalen Richard shouldn’t see too much 3rd down work over Jacobs, who can catch well. Chris Warren is great, but doesn’t have the draft stock to give me faith that he’ll do anything but be a backup. Jacobs has the stock, the ability and the full faith of the team, what more could you want?

LA Chargers: Defense…Again

For those of you who play with D/STs in your lineups, rejoice, for this is what you want in your drafts. A team that was already great in terms of defense got better by loading up on defensive players like Jerry Tillery and Nasir Adderley. I can’t really say Easton Stick here because 5th round QBs have a nauseating success rate. With Rivers looking to re-up like Big Ben did for at least 3 more years, I’d say he ends up a gadgety (rumors of Taysom Hill usage) 3rd stringer behind Tyrod.

Fantasy Football Big Board 3.0 (Hicks)

Welcome to my third fantasy football big board. I’ve already released positional rankings, based purely on tape, for each position group. You may want to check out those articles before reading this if you haven’t already. You also may want to check out my second big board article to see where I had some of these players pre-draft. Note below that “BB2” refers to where I ranked them in this article.

Now the NFL Draft is over and landing spots have flipped my big board on its head. In addition to landing spots, I’ve significantly increased my big board to include anyone with relevant draft capital or priority undrafted free agents (UDFA) I was high on pre-draft.

Here are my top 104 rookies following the 2019 NFL Draft, broken in 6 tiers.


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Tier 1: Potential 1.01 Picks

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
110WRN’Keal HarryNew England
2108RBJosh JacobsOakland
32-1WRDK MetcalfSeattle
462TENoah FantDenver
583RBMiles SandersPhiladelphia

It was tough for me to draw a clear line for my “tier 1” post NFL Draft-I chose to go with the players I think could go with the 1.01 pick in dynasty rookie drafts, depending on team need.

Personally N’Keal Harry is far and away my 1.01; he was my 1.01 pre-draft for his athleticism, YAC potential, quickness, and production at Arizona State. Now he is paired with perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time in Tom Brady, and in an offense that has no significant threats to Harry’s target potential past Julian Edelman.

Josh Jacobs, though, is my biggest riser: I liked him tape but was not convinced he could be an immediate 3 down back in the NFL. It remains to be seen how quickly he will be thrown into that role, but Oakland made a bold statement about what they see in Jacobs when they selected him with the 24th overall pick. The explosive and strong running back out of Alabama now finds himself in a surprisingly balanced offense with Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Hunter Renfrow as passing game threats for Derek Carr.

DK Metcalf and Miles Sanders’ landing spots have been questioned by many, but not me. Metcalf finds himself competing only with Tyler Lockett (pending an official retirement announcement from Doug Baldwin) for targets from Russell Wilson-a top 5 quarterback in the NFL. Miles Sanders’ crowded running back depth chart doesn’t bother me-I don’t expect Jordan Howard to be in Philadelphia past the 2019 season, and I’ll be surprised if more than one of Clement, Sproles, Adams, and Smallwood make it onto the 53 man roster come September.

Tier 2: High Upside, but Not Without the Risk

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
693TETJ HockensonDetroit
75-2WRAJ BrownTennessee
8135RBDavid MontgomeryChicago
9112WRParris CampbellIndianapolis
10122WRDeebo SamuelSan Francisco
112716WRJJ Arcega-WhitesidePhiladelphia
12153TEIrv Smith JrMinnesota
133118WRMarquise BrownBaltimore
14239WRJalen HurdSan Francisco
1514-1RBJustice HillBaltimore

Tier 2 is stacked with talent; the combined upside of this group makes me scoff at those who claim this is a weak rookie class. Still, there are flaws to be found alongside the homerun potential of many of these players.

AJ Brown remains high on my draft board, despite a questionable landing spot. Brown will likely have to play outside for the Titans, who inked Adam Humphries earlier this off season, and will be playing with the inconsistent Marcus Mariota. Brown, though, succeeded on the outside at Ole Miss-Vanderbilt was perhaps his best game tape and he played primarily outside. Mariota, is coming off a season where he didn’t have feeling in his hand or throwing shoulder for most of the season. Combine that with a new offensive coordinator and the potential of a balanced running game and the Titans offense is suddenly becoming one that could produce a lot of fantasy football points in 2019. Brown can be the forced volume safety net that Mariota needs to consistently attacked defenses; leading to high PPR upside for Brown.

JJ Arcega-Whiteside (JJAW) is a big riser for me post-NFL Draft. I question JJAW’s long speed and ability to create separation, but Philadelphia saw him as a better fit in their offense than players like Hakeem Butler and DK Metcalf. The Eagles are rumored to be shopping Nelson Agholor and could cut Alshon Jeffery for major cap relief following the 2019 season. JJAW is a power forward who uses his large frame to box out defenders well-an intriguing skillset on a team that sees a lot of red zone opportunity when Carson Wentz is healthy.

Tier 3: Get Your Guy

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
164-12WRHakeem ButlerArizona
173518WRAndy IsabellaArizona
183921RBAlexander MattisonMinnesota
19245TEJace SternbergerGreen Bay
20255WRTerry McLaurinWashington
2118-3WRMiles BoykinBaltimore
2216-6RBDamien HarrisNew England
233-20WRKelvin HarmonWashington
24262QBKyler MurrayArizona
25283RBDarrell HendersonLos Angeles Rams
267-19RBRodney AndersonCincinnatti
27N/AN/AWRMecole HardmanKansas City

Once dynasty rookie drafts start to move beyond the mid second round hit rates start to drop and draft strategy becomes critically important. For me, this is when things get fun and I start to go after my guys. All of these players could fit into that category; especially risers like Andy Isabella or fallers like Kelvin Harmon.

Alexander Mattison quietly finds himself in one of my favorite landing spots. Mattison is a well-rounded back with solid vision, good strength, and good agility for his size. He has the potential to catch balls out of the backfield or pound the ball in at the goal line. Dalvin Cook has always had a handcuff, and we should expect Mattision to get a Latavius Murray-esq workload even when Cook is fully healthy. Mattision, though, has more goal line potential, and that could lead to a lot of fantasy football value. I suggest latching onto this guy before others catch on.

I may just be the only person on #DraftTwitter who actually bumped Henderson up on their big board post draft. Henderson’s Memphis tape did not impress me: I saw him rely on large gaps, depend on his running back teammates to wear down poor competition, and a lack of vision. Now, though, Henderson gets paired with one of the best offensive lines in the country, on an offense where Todd Gurley can wear down opposing defenses, and on a team that consistently moves the ball down field. Henderson may not get the volume you’d want, but he will have every opportunity to make home run plays that give fantasy football players a great return on investment in the late second/early third round.

Tier 4: Late Round Dart Throws

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
28291QBDrew LockDenver
29367RBDevin SingletaryBuffalo
30322QBDwayne HaskinsWashington
314312TEDawson KnoxBuffalo
32331WRRiley RidleyChicago
3322-11WRDillon MitchellMinnesota
34406RBBenny SnellPittsburgh
35372QBDaniel JonesNew York Giants
36N/AN/ATEKahale WarringHouston
375114RBBryce LoveWashington
3820-18WRStanley MorganCincinatti
3930-9RBJames WilliamsKansas City
4019-21RBTrayveon WilliamsCincinatti
4134-7RBDevine OzigboNew Orleans
42N/AN/ATEJosh OliverJacksonville
43452WRHunter RenfrowOakland
445511WRKeeSean JohnsonArizona
456318QBJarrett StidhamNew England
46N/AN/ATEAlize MackNew Orleans
47N/AN/AWRGary JenningsSeattle
48N/AN/ARBDexter WilliamsGreen Bay

Note: I’m switching to quick notes on players for the rest of this article, to provide you with as many content as possible.

Drew Lock is an investment pick-he likely will “redshirt” behind Flacco this year. He is worth the wait, though, his velocity and ability to work all 3 levels of the field made him my favorite quarterback on tape. With a year in Denver he can correct the mechanics issues that plummeted his draft capital.

Dawson Knox is a highly athletic TE who converted from quarterback to see little volume in a stacked Ole Miss offense. He will have the chance to win the starting role in a Buffalo offense desperate for playmakers.

James Williams may be a UDFA, but he is a a fantastic pass catching back with high PPR upside in a Kansas City offense that seems to be taking the “quantity over quality approach” to their backfield. Williams may end up being a RB2 in fantasy football in 2019, or he may not make the 53 man roster-he’s a major dart throw.

Alize Mack doesn’t have the best tape out there, but he has sneaky upside on a high powered offense that couldn’t find a viable tight end in 2018.

Tier 5: Taxi Squad Heros

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
49N/AN/ARBRyquell ArmsteadJacksonville
50522WRWill GrierCarolina
5146-5RBMyles GaskinMiami
5217-35WREmanuel HallChicago
5349-4WRLil Jordan
Humphrey
New Orleans
54540QBEaston StickLos Angeles Chargers
55N/AN/AWRTerry GodwinCarolina
56N/AN/ATECaleb WilsonArizona
57N/AN/ARBAnthony PollardDallas
58N/AN/AWRJakobi MeyersNew England
59N/AN/ATEDrew SampleCincinatti
6041-19TEDax RaymondChicago
61N/AN/ATEFoster MoreauOakland
62N/AN/AQBRyan FinleyCincinatti
6348-15RBMike WeberDallas
6453-11TEKaden SmithSan Francisco
6544-21RBElijah HolyfieldCarolina
6650-16WRGreg DortchNew York Jets
67N/AN/ATETrevon WescoNew York Jets
68N/AN/ARBQadree OllisonAtlanta
69N/AN/AWRDarius SlaytonNew York Giants
70N/AN/ARBDarwin ThompsonKansas City
71N/AN/ATETommy SweeneyBuffalo
72N/AN/ARBBruce AndersonTampa Bay
73N/AN/AWRPenny HartIndianapolis
74N/AN/AWRJazz FergusonSeattle
75N/AN/AWRAshton DulinIndianapolis

Emanuel Hall is a seriously flashy tape review-he burned NFL bound SEC defensive backs consistently at Missouri but struggled to stay healthy. He could end up being yet another dynamic piece in Matt Nagy’s offense.

Lil’ Jordan Humphrey’s draft stock plummeted with a horrendous combine. Still, he’s a PFF favorite for a reason and the over sized slot wideout may end up moving to tight end. Still, he signs as a UDFA with the Saints-giving him upside potential.

Foster Moreau is a raw but athletic tight end of of LSU; he likely will take some time to develop but faces a lack of competition for targets in Oakland’s depth chart.

Ashton Dulin is a Division 2 phenom out of Malone College, and a bit of a lore among those who covet dominator rating to measure the potential success of wide receivers. Dulin lands in a good offense in Indianapolis who doesn’t have much depth past Hilton, Funchess, and now Campbell.

Tier 6: Deep League Dives

RankBB2ChangePOSPlayerTeam
7660-16TEIsaac NautaDetroit
7762-15QBGardner MinshewJacksonville
78N/AN/AWRTravis FulghamDetroit
79N/AN/AQBClayton ThorsonPhiladelphia
80N/AN/ARBTravis HomerSeattle
8158-23RBKaran HigdonHouston
8221-61RBAlex BarnesTennessee
83N/AN/AQBTrace McSorleyBaltimore
84N/AN/ATEZach GentryPittsburgh
85N/AN/ARBTy JohnsonDetroit
8647-39QBTyree JacksonBuffalo
87N/AN/ARBJordan ScarlettCarolina
8857-31WRDavid SillsBuffalo
89N/AN/AWRJuwann WinfreeDenver
9061-29RBDamarea CrockettHouston
91N/AN/AWROlamide ZaccheausAtlanta
92N/AN/AWRPreston WilliamsMiami
93N/AN/AWRAnthony Ratliff-WilliamsTennessee
94N/AN/ATEDonald ParhamDetroit
95N/AN/AWRMarcus GreenAtlanta
96N/AN/ARBCullen GillaspiaHouston
97N/AN/ARBKerrith Whyte JrChicago
98N/AN/AWROlasibi JohnsonMinnesota
9942-57QBBrett RypienDenver
10056-44WRDeMarkus LodgeTampa Bay
101N/AN/AWRJohn UrsuaSeattle
102N/AN/AWRScott MillerTampa Bay
10338-65WRAnthony JohnsonFree Agent
10459-45QBJordan Ta’amuFree Agent

Isaac Nauta was once considered among the top tight ends in this draft class-poor combine testing, though, doomed the former two sport IMG Academy standout. He ends up being the 2nd tight end drafted by Detroit (TJ Hockenson 8th overall), and will likely be buried on that depth chart-but he’s worth a late stash if he develops into more than a blocking tight end.

Gardner Minshew is still fairly raw-with just one season as a starting quarterback at Washington State. Minshew is undersized but can work the first two levels of the field, stretch the pocket, and is coveted by his teammates for his leadership. He’s a deep stash, but with two years behind Foles to develop, there’s a chance he gets a shot at the starting job following the end of the Jaguar’s newest quarterback’s contract.

Alex Barnes is extremely talented, and I find it a bit ironic he lands with the Titans: he has elements of both Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis in his game. He likely won’t see the field early in his career, barring injury, but has great vision, is a very powerful runner, and hands soft hands that make him a threat anywhere on the field.

Trace McSorely add yet another element of quickness for Baltimore in a draft that seems to indicate the future of their offense around Lamar Jackson. Look for McSorely to take on a gadget-type role, similar to the one Taysom Hill adopted for the Saints in 2018, for Baltimore. It may not surmount to any significant fantasy football value, but if your rosters are deep enough he’s worth consideration.

The Final 2019 NFL Draft Mock: Round 1

The Fanalysts have been grinding draft tape, monitoring team needs, and mock drafting since December. This 7-part mock-draft is one continuous mock draft and the our final one of the season for us. We will be releasing one article per day in the week leading up to the 2019 NFL Draft.

This is a summary of the First Round of our mock draft for the 2019 NFL Draft. Below are links all other rounds of our final mock for the 2019 NFL Draft:

Day 3:

2019 NFL Draft 7th Round Mock
2019 NFL Draft 6th Round Mock
2019 NFL Draft 5th Round Mock
2019 NFL Draft 4th Round Mock

Day 2:

2019 NFL Draft 3rd Round Mock

2019 NFL Draft 2nd Round Mock


For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out our 2019 Rookie Database

PickTeamPlayer
1Arizona CardinalsKyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
2San Francisco 49ersNick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State
3New York JetsQuinenn Williams, iDL, Alabama
4Oakland RaidersJosh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky
5Tampa Bay BuccaneersJonah Williams, OT, Alabama
6New York GiantsEd Oliver, iDL, Houston

Jonah Williams and Ed Oliver are both top 10 talents, but neither fit the exact mold of their positions. Williams goes off the board 5th overall to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team looking to rely on their offense in 2019. Ed Oliver’s athletic upside surpasses his “tweener” build, and is a perfect fit for Dave Gettleman’s “inside-out” roster construction philosophy.

PickTeamPlayer
7Jacksonville JaguarsJawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
8Detroit LionsBrian Burns, EDGE, Florida State
9Buffalo BillsTJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa
10Denver BroncosDrew Lock, QB, Missouri
11Cincinnati BengalsDevin White, LB, LSU
12Green Bay PackersDevin Bush, ILB, Michigan

TJ Hockenson is the first tight end off the board and the first tight end taken in the top 10 of the NFL Draft since Eric Ebron in 2014. There’s a lot of teams in the late teens/early 20s that will be disappointed with Devin White and Devin Bush going back to back in the top 12.

PickTeamPlayer
13Miami DolphinsCody Ford, iOL, Oklahoma
14Atlanta FalconsMontez Sweat, EDGE, Miss St.
15WashingtonDK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
16Carolina PanthersClelin Ferrel, DE, Clemson
17New York GiantsRashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan
18Minnesota VikingsGarrett Bradbury, iOL, NC State

DK Metcalf is the first wide receiver off the board in a deep and talented wideout class. Washington opted for a playmaking weapon to pair with Case Keenum, instead of a potential franchise quarterback in Dwayne Haskins. Haskins, like Daniel Jones, has free fallen in this mock draft-which does not have trades.

19JoshTennessee TitansByron Murphy, CB, Washington
20ChrisPittsburgh SteelersGreedy Williams, CB LSU
21MikeSeattle SeahawksChris Lindstrom, iOL, Boston College
22ChrisBaltimore RavensN’Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
23JoshHouston TexansAndre Dillard, OT, Washington State
24MattOakland RaidersNoah Fant, TE, Iowa

Byron Murphy going off the board to Tennessee starts a very quick cornerback run in an NFL Draft that is shallow at a high demand position. Murphy slots right into a support role in an already solid secondary for the Titans. Greedy Williams is the high upside player that fits Pittsburgh’s type-expect he actually has a first-round grade.

PickTeamPlayer
25Philadelphia EaglesChauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida
26Indianapolis ColtsChristian Wilkins, iDL, Clemson
27Oakland RaidersAmani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State
28Los Angeles ChargersJeffery Simmons, iDL, Mississippi State
29Kansas CityChase Winovich, EDGE, Michigan
30Green Bay PackersNasir Adderley, S, Delaware
31Los Angeles RamsDalton Risner, OT, Kansas State
32New England PatriotsAJ Brown, WR, Ole Miss

The New England Patriots finish out the first round by taking AJ Brown, the highly productive wide receiver out of Ole Miss. Brown offers the Patriots and immediate playmaker, either in the slot or on the outside. The versatile wideout can be a high impact player in his first year and is the 3rd wide receiver off the board in the first round.