DFS: Week 10 DRAFT Favorite Plays, Upside Picks, & Must Avoids

I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

Quarterback

Favorite Play: Matt Ryan (ATL) vs Cleveland

I’ll start by providing my usual disclaimer: I’m not going to list Pat Mahomes in this slot every week, if you want to draft him over Ryan, go for it. That being said, Ryan is my QB1 overall this week. The Falcons are facing off against the Browns in 3rd highest over/under of the week. Ryan, the QB2 overall on the season, will be attacking a Browns defense in the middle of the pack (18th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks) this season. A passing defense which now may be missing both rookie phenom Dez Ward and Demarious Randall for Week 10. In his last 3 games, Ryan has thrown 7 touchdowns (with just 1 interception) and for 1,084 yards while leading his team back into playoff contention. High scoring game + must win + red hot quarterback = cash for my DRAFT lineups.

High Upside: Phillip Rivers (LAC) vs Oakland

This one is all about the match-up. The Raiders are beat up, embarrassed, and just all around bad this season. The Raiders rank last in the league in pass DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and rank 31st in the league in weighted DVOA (recent play). This game also has a high over/under (49.5), what it also has, however, is the 2nd largest line of the week (10 points); giving the Chargers an implied 30-point total. Yet, I’ve seen Rivers available at the end of my DRAFTs this week-making for serious upside if you’re not willing to take Mahomes or Ryan in the 3rd round (where I’ve seen them both go). Rivers is QB13 overall on the season and had his 3rd best game of the season against Oakland in week 5-when he threw for 339 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Since Week 5, he’s thrown for 6 touchdowns, 741 yards, and just 1 interception.

Do Not DRAFT:  Jared Goff (LAR) vs Seattle

This is a tough one to turn away from: a 50 point over/under combined with a top 5 quarterback coming off his best game of the season. Yet, that’s exactly what you need to do. The Seahawks have been great against opposing quarterbacks this season; and when I say great, I mean: the best. They’ve allowed the least fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season; an average of just 13.5 per game. Opposing quarterbacks have put up just 1,678 yards (210 yards per game) against them-second lowest in the league. They’ve allowed the 6th least touchdowns (12) and have the 6th most interceptions (10) on the season: an almost even touchdown to interception ratio. Th Seahawks rank 5th in DVOA, 4th in weighted DVOA, and 5 in passing defense, according to Football Outsiders.

Running Back: Favorite Play: Kareem Hunt (KC) vs Arizona

This one is tough: there’s 5 legitimate choices if you’re the top pick this week. You could go for Gurley (the easy pick), Barkley (such a tempting match-up, on paper), Gordon (the Raiders are so, so bad…), Kamara (explosive player in the biggest over/under of the week) or you could come to the decision I have: the answer is Hunt. Hunt, the RB6 in PPR, is red hot: totaling 307 rushing yards, 246 receiving yards, and 8 touchdowns over the last 4 weeks. Combine this with his juice (very juicy) match-up: against an Arizona team that’s allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. That includes: the 4th most rushing yards against (1057) and 3rd most rushing touchdowns; giving Hunt all the upside he needs. Still, I have one more reason to take him over the temptation that is Todd: the Chiefs have the highest implied total of the week: with a 16.5 point spread on a 49.5 over/under; an implied total of 33.

Upside Target: Duke Johnson (CLE) vs Atlanta

Week 9 saw the revitalization of Duke Johnson’s fantasy value. Freed from the offensive burden which was Hue Jackson, Johnson saw his 3rd highest number of snaps and 3rd highest snap share of the season. He also recorded season highs in: targets, receptions (caught all 9 of his targets), receiving yards (78), and touchdowns (2, compared to just 1 in the first 8 weeks). This isn’t chasing last week’s points, though, this is looking forward to a fantastic week 10 match-up. Atlanta has allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. This, however, is much better for Duke than it is Chubb. They’ve allowed the most receptions to running backs (68) and the 4th most receiving yards (515). Duke is projected below 10 points on DRAFT, which is ridiculous and buries him well below sight for 6 team drafts. If you don’t get both running backs in the first 3 rounds, wait it out and grab Duke in the 5th round.

Do Not DRAFT: Ezekiel Elliot (DAL) vs Philadelphia

Zeke is bogged down in fantasy mediocracy this season; something that may be okay for your season-long leagues but is absolutely not okay for DRAFT. He hasn’t scored a touchdown or broke 100 yards since Week 6. Since Week 5, he’s averaging just 63.5 rushing yards per game, and 25 receiving yards per game. This game has the second lowest under/over of the week, and Dallas has an implied total of 18. Combine these factors with the fact Zeke is going early second round, and you’re setting yourself for a major disappoint during Sunday Night Football.

Wide Receiver/Tight End

Favorite Play: Julio Jones (ATL) vs Cleveland

I got into the match-up in detail under Matt Ryan, but I couldn’t resist pointing out this big-time stack play. Julio Jones is coming off a liberating week; where he finally found the endzone and gets to play a team that’s given up the second most touchdowns to opposing wideouts over the last 4 weeks. Here’s the thing, though: Jones doesn’t need to find the endzone to perform. He’s wracked up over 100 receiving yards in 5 of his 8 games this season; including 4 of his last 5 games. Jones also has at least 9 targets in his last 5 games and has at least 9 receptions in 4 of those 5 games. If you get caught with the 6th spot (the worst position to pick this week), don’t try to chase running back points: pivot to Jones, stack him with Ryan, and reap points.

Upside Target: Keenan Allen (LAC) vs Oakland

Consider Allen and Rivers to be a cheaper, just as rewarding, version of Ryan-Jones this week. Allen has struggled this season, making his perceived value cheap, but he broke out last week. Allen caught 6 of his 10 targets for 124 yards-his best game since Week 1. What Allen did in Week 1, that he hasn’t since, is find the endzone: that’s right we’re literally looking at a parallel between Allen and Jones here. Now let’s throw this into the mix: Oakland has allowed the 5th most touchdowns to wideouts this season and the 4th most over the last 4 weeks. Wait one more factor (and no, not the match-up, see Rivers above for that argument): Allen’s Week 9 mini-breakout was against the Seahawks…yes the same Seahawks defense that I told you has shutdown passing games (see avoiding Jared Goff). Keenan Allen couldn’t be any more set-up to take you to fantasy glory this week…and he’s cheap! Grab Allen in the 3rd, or maybe even 4th, and his value will do wonders for your DRAFT bankroll.

Do Not DRAFT: Robert Woods (LAR) vs Seattle

If you’re still playing Robert Woods to in DRAFT, you’re living in Week 6. Since Week 5, Woods has finished below Cooks twice, and finished below Kupp in Week 9 (his first week back). He’s failed to break the 100-yard mark and hasn’t found the endzone. I mentioned above why Goff should be avoided, and that goes double for Woods: who is not only competing against a defense that’s shutdown passing attacks; he’s competing with his own teammates (and losing). Season long leagues: sure, other DFS formats: maybe, DRAFT: not a chance he returns value.

Week 10 RB/TE Start ’em Sit ’em

After a Week 9 filled with intrigue and excitement, I’m going to take a quick victory lap on my “start ’em” call on Duke Johnson. It was as if the Cleveland offensive coaching staff read my article and said, “That makes a lot of sense!” With 25 points in a 0.5 PPR format, Duke Johnson was the overall RB7 in week 9. I believe he will continue to be effective on a Cleveland team that will be consistently playing from behind.

On to week 10! It’s not the topic of this article, but it must be said: Poor Dez.

Thanksgiving has come early as it is a week of running back feasts! We’ve already seen Christian McCaffrey have an absolutely magnificent game on Thursday night. We will tremble with antici……….pation for other matchups like Kareem Hunt against the Arizona Cardinals, Melvin Gordon against the Oakland Raiders, and David Johnson against the Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s see if we can find some not so obvious choices to recommend starting and sitting.

Running Back: Start ’em

Jordan Howard AND Tarik Cohen (Chicago Bears)

We were already going to start Jordan Howard. He’s had 4 touchdowns in the last 3 games and is finally showing why we spent a 2nd round pick on him in our preseason drafts. But, you can start Tarik Cohen this week, too! The best part is that he won’t even need the passing downs to do well. This is the kind of week where Tarik Cohen could rush for 100 yards and a touchdown on 7 or 8 touches.

The Chicago Bears play the Detroit Lions. The Lions have given up 3 rushing touchdowns in the last 3 games. They made Kenyan Drake look good. (Fine, he’s talented and misused in Miami, but he’s quite the clunker this fantasy season.) Last week, the Lions let both Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray have very good results. It’s the Bears’ turn. I don’t expect the results to change.

Theo Riddick (Detroit Lions)

As bad as the Lions are against the run, the Bears are polar opposite. Their defense is 6th best against the running back position in fantasy points per game. There have still been a couple of instances where an offensive scheme has exposed the Bears defense allowing a running back to do well: David Johnson in week 3 and James White in week 7; both were accomplished through the passing game.

Theo Riddick returned from injury in week 9 and was treated with 8 targets during the Minnesota sack-a-thon. The sack-a-thon will continue in week 10 and Stafford will be required to rely on his check down option. Enter Theo Riddick.

About that sack-a-thon. Seriously, do not make it into a drinking game. Everybody will lose.

Running Back: Sit ’em

Kerryon Johnson (Detroit Lions)

While Theo Riddick will do well out of necessity, Kerryon Johnson will suffer against a stout defense that does not allow the first and second down running back to succeed. Khalil Mack is healthy which makes the Bears great defense even better. I see two things happening in week 10: Stafford will be sacked a LOT and Kerryon Johnson will hit brick walls. They’re playing at Soldier Field which will put an even greater strain on the Lions offense.

Sony Michel (New England Patriots)

I’m sure he COULD play, but why bother? The Patriots play the Tennessee Titans one week prior to their bye week. The Patriots showed the ability to win against an arguably better (than the Titans) Green Bay Packers without him. So, let him rest! James White is doing quite well and they even utilized Cordarrelle Patterson in a way to get Yahoo and ESPN to give him that lovely double position tag (WR/RB).

At best, I think they might limit him to see how he is progressing and then let him loose in week 12, after their bye week. He’s been limited in practice all week. I just don’t see the point if the Patriots can easily win without him.

Feel free to put Sony Michel in your starting lineup, if you must. Just temper your expectations.

Tight End: Start ’em

Ben Watson (New Orleans Saints)

The Saints travel to Cincinnati to play the Bengals. This match up comes with the highest over/under of the week at 54 points. There will be plenty of points to go around as the Saints will drive up the score while the Bengals will be efficiently playing catch-up with the help of the home town crowd and the need for a win to stay firmly in the playoff hunt.

The Bengals have allowed Christmas to come early for their most recent opposing Tight Ends. In the last 3 games, they have allowed 2 touchdowns to the position. All three opposing teams’ Tight Ends have scored 10+ fantasy points in 0.5 PPR formats.

Worried about Gronk? See if Watson is on your waivers and play him instead.

Jordan Reed (Washington Redskins)

Oh man. I’ve put this name here before. It has not worked. I’m covering my eyes and cringing while I snip the blue wire that is Jordan Reed. While he explode? Or will it be a dud?

The Redskins travel to Tampa Bay to play a Buccaneers team that is just terrible against the Tight End. They have allowed 17.9 points per game to the position. They have given up 5 touchdowns to Tight Ends in their last 5 games. There is no reason for that trend to stop. The only thing that could prevent a wonderful result is Jordan Reed’s 2018 inefficiencies.

For the record, I am absolutely stunned that the Jordan Reed/Alex Smith pairing hasn’t set the world on fire. If any matchup will make things right in the fantasy world, it’s this one. If you’re in a pinch, feel free to throw Vernon Davis into your starting lineup.

Tight End: Sit ’em

Eric Ebron (Indianapolis Colts)

Jack Doyle is back and is getting the targets. Eric Ebron will continue to be a red zone threat at 6’4″. However, we must keep in mind that the Tight End position is terrible and you cannot count on touchdowns or points in general.

Before their bye in week 9, Eric Ebron enjoyed 22% of the offensive snaps to Jack Doyle’s 73%. Yes, he pulled in a touchdown with his lone red zone target. But, like I said above, you cannot count on that on a weekly basis. In addition, the Jacksonville Jaguars will be coming to town. While their defense hasn’t been living up to their potential as of late, they are still 7th best in PPG against the Tight End position.

This is not the week to play hero. Leave Eric Ebron on your bench.

Gerald Everett / Tyler Higbee (Los Angeles Rams)

I’m scraping the barrel listing two sit ’ems. Some might call this one a no-brainer, but I still want to mention it just in case fantasy owners are staring at a bye week problem and need to pick up a Tight End. They might be thinking, “The Rams offense is great! The Tight End should be getting a piece of it!” That first sentence is spot on. The second one? Not so much. Look elsewhere for a bye week filler. The Rams are travelling to Seattle and their dreaded 12th man. The Seahawks are the 2nd best in PPG against the Tight End position. Neither of the Rams Tight Ends will do well.

Good luck to each of you in week 10! Unless you’re facing me. In that case, I hope your significant other has signed you up for a Sunday morning commitment and that you sleep in by accident leaving no time to properly set your lineup.

DFS: 27 Top Targets, Values, & Bargain Bin Picks for Week 10

QUARTERBACK

Patrick Mahomes: vs ARI (DK 7200; FD 9800)

The only concern here is the entire Kansas City team looking forward to the Mexico City showdown and potential Super Bowl matchup with the Rams next Monday night.  Yet, whenever there has been potential a trouble spot on the schedule, Patrick Mahomes has proven the doubters wrong and it shouldn’t be any different this week.  300+ passing yards in eight straight games along with at least three passing touchdowns in the last four, should I go any further?  Mahomes is a must-start each and every week, just like Todd Gurley, Adam Thielen, and Travis Kelce.

Philip Rivers: at OAK (DK 6000; FD 8200)

Since Amari Cooper played his final snap as a Raider before being dealt to the Cowboys, Oakland is losing by an average of 23 points per game.   The Raiders are in full tank mode and if a third string quarterback can throw for three touchdowns, why can’t Philip Rivers?  Oakland has allowed three touchdown passes in its last three games and if the secondary struggled with the 49ers receiving corps, imagine how much pain a much more talented Chargers group will inflict.  Add in the receiving capabilities of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler and it gives Rivers several avenues towards success in the second meeting between these divisional foes.

Ryan Fitzpatrick: vs WAS (DK 5900; FD 7600)

This matchup features a Tampa Bay offense that posts the 3rd fewest rushing yards per game against a Washington defense that allows the 5th fewest rushing yards per game.  This should create additional passing attempts from Ryan Fitzpatrick against a team that not only allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 300 yards but also Eli Manning in the last two games.  In selecting Fitzpatrick, you accept that he will turn the ball over at some point as he has done so in all but one game that he was the starter.   However, he has thrown for either a minimum of 400 yards or three touchdowns in those four games and is a solid option at his salary on both sites.

RUNNING BACK

Melvin Gordon: at OAK (DK 9000; FD 8900)

As terrible as the Raiders have been against the pass, they have been equally awful against the run and as a double digit favorite heading into the Black Hole, Melvin Gordon is positioned to touch the ball quite a bit in this game.  He’s averaging at least 100 scrimmage yards and a touchdown in his last three against the Raiders and it aligns well for Gordon to make it a fourth straight game doing so.  Start him with absolute confidence as he possesses one of the highest touchdown expectancies this week. 

Kareem Hunt: vs ARI (DK 8500; FD 9000)

The Arizona defense has been shredded by running backs on the ground as it hasn’t allowed any opponent to rush for fewer than 88 yards on top of the 10 rushing touchdowns surrendered by this group.  Kareem Hunt has scored seven touchdowns in the last three weeks and like the aforementioned Melvin Gordon, he also has an outstanding chance of crossing the pylons.  Opponents have played to Arizona’s glaring weakness and it’s safe to expect the Chiefs to implement that same gameplan.

Tevin Coleman: at CLE (DK 5400; FD 7300)

Three of the last four games have featured the Cleveland defense being slaughtered by either Melvin Gordon, James Conner, or Kareem Hunt.  Tevin Coleman doesn’t need to be either of those guys to return value especially at his low price point on DraftKings but if he can get to 20 touches in a game the Falcons should win, that will suffice.  He has proven effective out of the backfield for the majority of his time in Atlanta and given that the Browns have struggled against both running backs on the ground and through the air, Coleman should have a productive day in Cleveland.

Dion Lewis: vs NE (DK 4600; FD 5800)

He should have extra motivation this weekend as he faces the team he won a Super Bowl with in 2016.  Dion Lewis should enjoy success against a New England defense that has allowed the 4th most catches and 2nd most yards to running backs out of the backfield.  The Patriots should be able to jump out to a lead where Lewis will need to work out of negative gamescript and see coveted receptions in DraftKings full PPR scoring system.  He’s seen 20 more touches than Derrick Henry in Tennessee’s prior two games and considering Henry is hardly utilized out of the backfield, Lewis is the Titan running back to roster this week.

WIDE RECEIVER

Julio Jones: at CLE (DK 8300; FD 8700)

And it’s not because he scored a touchdown for the first time in nearly a calendar year.  E.J. Gaines was put on IR, Denzel Ward and Damarious Randall are banged up, and Phillip Gaines was claimed off waivers after a horrible stint in Buffalo.  Indeed, this Cleveland secondary is a mess and one Julio Jones can slaughter on his own.  He’s seeing 11.4 targets per game in his last five games as the Atlanta offensive staff continues to find ways to use their most prolific player.  He’s gone for over 100 yards in four of the last five and there is a great expectation in this game for him to make it five of six along with a touchdown for the second week in a row.

Tyler Boyd: vs NO (DK 7500; FD 7800)

As long as the Saints continue to roll out slot corner P.J. Williams, attacking the Saints through the slot receiver will be a continuing trend.  Tyler Boyd has been dominant at Paul Brown Stadium, averaging 20.83 FPPG in PPR scoring along with a +6.33 FPPG differential in home games.  He has slaughtered the other three NFC South opponents to the tune of 26 receptions for 370 yards and 2 touchdowns and with A.J. Green expected miss this game, it should filter additional targets in Boyd’s direction.  Hopefully the Bengals keep him in the slot and let John Ross and Alex Erickson work the outside because if that occurs, it’s just another dream matchup for the young receiver in his breakout 2018 campaign.

Josh Gordon: at TEN (DK 6000; FD 6700)

The Patriots will certainly look to exploit their former cornerback that they benched in the penultimate game of 2018.  No team gives up more fantasy points to receivers lined up on the left side of the ball than the Titans and that’s where Josh Gordon spends nearly 60% of his snaps.  He’s developed a chemistry with Tom Brady as he’s averaging eight targets in the last four games and this matchup against Butler is as good as it gets.  His affordable salary on both sites makes him a viable option to do some serious damage this week.

Maurice Harris: at TB (DK 3900; FD 5900)

I’m not one to chase fantasy points but the injuries on the offensive side of the ball for the Redskins are plentiful.  Paul Richardson is on IR, Jamison Crowder hasn’t played since week 5, and Chris Thompson has already been declared inactive for week 10.  It’s shaping up for Maurice Harris to once again play a pivotal role against a Buccaneers defense that surrenders the most FPA to slot receivers.  Definitely check up on the Friday injury report and Sunday inactives to see if Jamison Crowder suits up on Sunday because if he is also inactive, Harris is in an even better spot to see additional targets and too cheap to pass up.

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce: vs ARI (DK 7000; FD 8000)

The Cardinals have given up the 6th fewest FPA to tight ends but if you look inside the numbers, they haven’t faced many names of note.  Arizona allowed 10 catches for 140 yards in two meetings to George Kittle, a tight end that commands respect.  Travis Kelce is in a tier above Kittle and in an offense that is capable of moving down the field at a moments notice, he’s worth the high price of admission.  At minimum, he’s caught five passes for 60 yards in all but one game and in a tight end position of such weekly uncertainty, Kelce provides a good amount of clarity.

Benjamin Watson: at CIN (DK 3400; FD 5900)

There’s such a disparity in the pricing for the Saints tight end between both sites that it certainly stands out against a Cincinnati defense that has struggled against the position.  Not to mention having Drew Brees throw Benjamin Watson the ball in a game with the highest total on the main slate and it makes him a solid play on both sites but absolutely on DraftKings.  He’s good for four targets per game and has an opportunity to find the end zone in this game as the Bengals have allowed five touchdowns to the tight end through eight games.

Chris Herndon: vs BUF (DK 3100; FD 5500)

In what has been a committee at the position for the Jets, Chris Herndon has been the tight end that has stood out in the last four weeks, averaging 2.75 catches for 44 yards and .75 touchdowns.  The Buffalo defense has been more susceptible to tight ends on the road as it allows 13.42 FPPG to the position in road games.  It’s a slight punt but a punt that could pay off with a score, something Herndon has done in three of his last four games.

DEFENSE

Los Angeles Chargers: at OAK (DK 3500; FD 4700)

After allowing 30 points per game in their first four contests, the Chargers have sliced that figure in half, allowing 15 points in their last four.  Easier competition has a lot to do with it and it doesn’t get easier than an Oakland team that has scored an average of 11 points in their last four and just a field goal in two of their last three.

New York Jets: vs BUF (DK 3400; FD 4900)

As long as Josh Allen is unable to play, as I explained last week and will do so again: NATHAN PETERMAN.  Not to mention Josh McCown shouldn’t turn the ball over as much as Sam Darnold and give the Buffalo offense shorter fields to work with.

Kansas City: vs ARI (DK 3300; FD 4600)

The Arizona offense has turned the ball over multiple times in three straight along with fantasy defenses scoring double digit points in five of eight games.  They also welcome back must needed help in the secondary with safety Daniel Sorensen activated from IR.

PRICE SHOPPING

Each week, I will identify what players are bargains based on the salary cap percentage difference they represent on the respective site.  Here are the notable week 10 bargains from both sites

NOTABLE DRAFTKINGS BARGAINS

QB Matt Ryan: 1.76

RB Tevin Coleman: 1.36

WR Maurice Harris: 2.06

TE Benjamin Watson: 3.03

TE Chris Herndon: 2.96

DEF Los Angeles Rams: 1.7

NOTABLE FANDUEL BARGAINS

RB Melvin Gordon: 3.17

RB David Johnson: 2.1

WR Tyler Boyd: 2

WR Cooper Kupp: 1.97

The End of an Era: It’s Time to Part Ways with Gronk

The 2018 fantasy season has been terribly frustrating for Rob Gronkowski owners.  Even when he has been healthy, Gronk’s production just hasn’t lived up to expectations.  Being taken in the top 30 of most drafts, Gronk is expected to be producing as a top 3 TE and have these huge week-winning games. Even after a mediocre start to the season, Gronkowski still has an Average Draft Position (ADP) of 31st overall, according to Dynasty League Football’s October start up ADP.  This is ahead of guys such as James Conner, Sony Michel and Zach Ertz.  When November data comes out, I’m sure his ADP is going to drop.

If you can get a future 1st round pick or more for Gronkowski, it is definitely time to sell.

The Injuries

The main reason that I believe it is time to sell Gronkowski is his injury history. Since the 2011 season, Gronkowski has only had one season where he didn’t miss a game due to an injury (2014).  Gronk’s previous injuries that have caused him to miss games includes a broken/infected left forearm 2x (2012 & 2013), torn right ACL (2013), sprained knee (2015), injured hamstring (2016), lung contusion (2016), lower back injury (2016), thigh contusion (2017), concussion (2017) and back/ankle issues (2018).

That is a huge list, and honestly, I may have missed one or two.  There just always seems to be something wrong with Gronkowski. Largely due to these injuries, we have already heard Gronkowski contemplate retiring this last off season.  I believe that it is realistic that Gronkowski will end up retiring by the end of the 2019 NFL season.  If that’s the case, there will only be a very short window to get anything in return for one of the all-time greats.

The Production

Another reason for concern with Gronkowski is the drop off in production.  Now, this may be due to the injuries, but Gronkowski just isn’t producing like a top tight end this season.  Currently ranked as the TE 12 while playing 7 games, Gronk has 29 receptions, 448 yards and 1 touchdown.  This comes out to an average on 9.1 fantasy points per game, based on .5ppr scoring.

With the price that fantasy owners had to pay for Gronkowski, they were definitely expecting more then 9 points per game.  With the exception of Week 1, Gronkowski hasn’t showed the ability to produce those week-winning games that we all once loved.  If Gronkowski can’t have these huge games and consistently produce as a top 3 TE, it is hard to rationalize keeping or even paying the price for Gronkowski.

End of a Dynasty?

Besides his size and athleticism, one of the main reasons why Gronkowski has been so successful in the NFL is the phenomenal landing spot.  Being drafted by the New England Patriots in the 2010 NFL Draft, Gronkowski has gotten to play his whole career with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.  These two have been the leaders of possibly the greatest 15 year span we have ever seen by a professional sports team.

For as remarkable the run has been, there is no doubt that we are reaching the end.  Even if Gronkowski ends up playing for 5 more years, will Belichick and Brady still be around?  Unless the Patriots end up pulling off a Favre/Rodgers transition, it’s hard to find a scenario where Gronkowski continues to be a top fantasy TE in a few years while the Patriots are trying to find their next QB.

 

 

 

Week 10 WR/TE Buy and Sell Targets

Boy oh boy did this past week have some fun and exciting games that have painted a picture for me of who I want to start targeting more and more. Some are under the radar, some are right in your face. Either way, lets get ready for the home stretch of the fantasy season.

Wide Receiver, Buying:

Josh Gordon

He was my week 1 sell target and at that point in the season, I think that was an accurate place for him to be. Since then, things have changed. He’s now a patriot and is evolving as a player in that system. Coming off his biggest game as a patriot where he saw 10 targets, about a third of Tom Brady’s throws, capitalized on 5 (should have been 6) for 130 yards and a touchdown. He showed big play ability, showed his hands, and showed a growing connection between him and TB12. Through 6 games with Pats, he’s 38 targets, 22 receptions, 2 touchdowns, and roughly 400 yards. I love him in this system and moving forward. Buy em!

Sammy Watkins

He’s slowly crept into the top 25 of WRs in PPR leagues. Coming off a 5 for 62 performance in Cleveland, he gets a match-up with Arizona and their second string CB named what exactly? This season, he’s only been good for 3 touchdowns because Mahomes has 3 other targets to give them to in the form of Tyreek, Kelce, and Hunt. But, you’re not buying Watkins to be your fantasy savior, you’re buying him to be a solid role player. With 54 targets and 39 receptions on the season, he can be the guy to give you solid WR2/3 points per week. The Chiefs offense shows no signs of slowing down and I’d take him as a role player.

Wide Receiver, Selling:

Amari Cooper

First game jitters in the middle of the season? Nah, he didn’t have any. In a game where it was his first time playing with the quarterback, he saw 8 targets from Prescott, that’s his third highest all season – he was previously playing with a guy who’d he played with for some quite some time and averaged 5 targets per game through the 6 games he played for the Raiders. He looked good in his Cowboy’s debut hauling in 5 of those 8 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. This is why I’m selling him, he looked good and like he was full of potential. Maybe you can do what the Raiders did and get a 1st rounder for him in a package. He is talented, no doubt, but is the Cowboy’s offense much better than the Raiders? Maybe at the RB position, but that’s it. Will his issue of dropping passes disappear in Dallas? No way of knowing. Sell him on a great and promising week.

Golden Tate

He teetered on a buy for me. The Eagles made an aggressive move for a guy that dominates the slot. Except they already had decent slot production out of Agholor. They also just paid a ton of money for Alshon. Leaving Tate as seemingly half season rental. Will that effect him? Maybe not, if anything it could have the adverse effect and benefit him as the Eagles will try to get their value out of him before he potentially walks away at the end of the year. Tate has seen some great usage on the year with 69 targets, 44 receptions, and over 500 yards, I’m just not sure that Carson will give him the target share that Stafford did. I’d sell him now while some people are still enamored with the move

Tight End, Buying:

Chris Herndon

Since assuming the starting role for the Jets in week 6, Herndon has been a pleasant surprise and a quiet one. He’s seen 15 targets, catching 11 of them for 176 yards and three touchdowns. Pretty solid stats for a relative unknown at the position on a team led by a rookie QB prone to interceptions. In his stretch of starts, he faced one of the toughest defenses in the Bears and still came away with a touchdown to give him fantasy value. He’s a rookie that’s getting targets and producing with them. He’ll earn trust from his quarterbacks and his value will continue to rise. He’s owned in less than 12 percent of ESPN leagues, go get him in dynasty and in redraft if you need TE help, he’s a TE2 but a consistent starter in my opinion.

Tight End, Selling:

Kyle Rudolph

The fact that he’s the TE 12 in PPR leagues goes to show you how devoid the fantasy landscape is of big time TEs. Since week 6, he’s not had more than 4 catches, has not broken 50 yards in a game since week 4, and hasn’t seen a touchdown since week 3. His production is poor in an offense where they have 2 of the best receivers in the league and a formidable running game. Cousins his looking his way less which means it’s time to sell him. Guide Santa’s sleigh for another team.

Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 10 Edition

Last Week’s Results: The first half for Dak Prescott was encouraging as he threw for 2 TDs and looked like he was on his way to a big fantasy performance, but the Cowboy offense completely stalled after halftime so there wasn’t much fantasy production after that. Dak finished with a solid 18.82 fantasy points, which was a solid performance as long as you didn’t play against too many players in the Rams/Saints game her gave you a chance to win your match up. Dak ran less than expected only carrying the ball twice in the game which really limited his upside.

This week there are only really 2 fantasy relevant players on bye in Kirk Cousins and Deshaun Watson, but some of the guys who are consistently started have tough matchups this week. It might be a week where you are going up against a strong team or have some other players on bye where it might be best to shoot for more upside with a streaming play. Here are the guys I like for week 10 available in at least 50% of Yahoo leagues.

Main Streaming Option: Baker Mayfield

Baker has been a solid option for fantasy and this week he has a great match up. It has a lot of the things I like in a streaming QB option. He is playing at home with a positive match up, against an opponent who will put up points. The game has an over/under of 50.5 points. The Browns went through big changes with the firing of their offensive coordinator and head coach. Last week was the first game after the change and the biggest positive to see was how involved Duke Johnson was in the passing game. He had his highest target count of the season with 9 and I think his involvement helps Baker a lot for fantasy. Having that safe option to turn to will only help Baker. It was also nice to see Njoku involved in the passing game again after receiving 0 targets the previous week against the Steelers, who have been giving up fantasy points to TEs all season. Baker is a better fantasy QB than an NFL QB at this point. The game scrip will likely call for him to throw plenty against the Falcons, it might not always look good and he will likely throw a INT or 2, but in the end the fantasy points will be there.

Alternate 1: Nick Mullens

This is the go for it move. Playing Mullens is a huge risk, but watching him carve up the Oakland defense in his NFL debut was a lot of fun. It took a game I had no interest going into on Thursday and made me care. Part of this can be chalked up to the lost first season of the Jon Gruden experiment (that contract looks worse and worse as the weeks go on), but it is not like the Giants have much to play for at this point. Mullens could come out and be a complete disappointment, but the idea of him coming in and playing well in his 2nd consecutive national television game is the only thing that makes the Monday Night Football this week seem even remotely interesting. My next alternate is a much safer move, but this is the move that has a high ceiling along with a very low floor.

Alternate 2: Alex Smith

Overall Smith has been a disappointment for fantasy this year, but the Redskins play against Tampa Bay who is giving up the most points to fantasy QBs this season. This is entirely about the match up; if you need a guy you can plug in and get safe production from Smith is the guy. He is not likely to give that boom performance, he is solid play. I would prefer to plug him in as my 2nd QB in a 2 QB or Superflex league. It is not fun to play Alex Smith because he isn’t likely to go for a 30 point week, but he is not likely to sink your week either. This game is tied for the 2nd highest over/under of the week, so as long as Peterson doesn’t pull out another throwback game Smith will put up some fantasy points in this one.

Overall streaming might not be as necessary for fantasy this week, but there are still some viable options if you are looking for a QB to plug in. These are the names I am looking at for fantasy this week, I own Kirk Cousins as my only QB in one of my leagues so I will likely be turning to one of these guys myself.