Week 13 RB/TE Start ’em Sit ’em

The days of my life are passing by much too quickly. I feel like we were drafting just a few weeks ago. Despite our best efforts, time runs wild and most of us are, all too swiftly, girding our loins for playoff battle in week 14. Possibly week 15 in smaller leagues. If you are a friendly and faithful reader, I hope you have already clinched or have an easy path in week 13. If you are my opponent, I hope you lose.

Let’s discuss some starts and sits.

Running Back: Start ’em

Before we move on, let’s pick some low hanging fruit. If you are the owner of Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, Aaron Jones, or Philip Lindsay, Congratulations! You have likely won your week.

LAMAR MILLER (HOUSTON TEXANS)

You cannot deny that the Texans are on fire. After starting the season 0-3, the Texans are now on an eight game winning streak. One of the key pieces in that streak is Lamar Miller. He has scored a touchdown in 3 of his last 5 games. In that same 5 game span, he has only put up one clunker of a performance while playing the Broncos in Denver. The Broncos are better than average against the Running Back position.

We don’t have to worry about a tough defense this week. While the Browns have certainly looked better since the firing of Hue Jackson, they are still being gashed on the ground. In their last 5 games, they have allowed 590 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns. This does not include yards through the air to the Running Back position. (QBs have also been able to score on the ground against the Browns, so fire up your Deshaun Watson shares.)

ROYCE FREEMAN (DENVER BRONCOS)

I dug deep into the well for this one. I’ve already stated that Philip Lindsay is going to win weeks for owners. Against the Bengals, there will be enough production to spread the wealth between both Running Backs. The only cause for concern is that the Broncos are travelling to Cincinnati. Fear not! The Broncos have one of the top 10 jersey sales in the country. I am guessing that the crowd in Cincinnati will be sparse and somewhat Broncos friendly.

Royce Freeman is not a weekly start. He has been largely useless; he normally only provides fantasy value in the weeks where he scores a touchdown. This is a week where he will score a touchdown, though. Folks, the Bengals are really bad. In particular, they are bad against the run. They are the 2nd worst team on the season against the Running Back position. 8 of the last 12 touchdowns scored against the Bengals have been on the ground OR to the running back position. Many of those touchdowns were in short yardage situations. Guess who is stellar in short yardage situations? Royce Freeman.

You likely have better options. But, if you’re in a pinch, this is the player to start.

Running Back: Sit ’em

TEVIN COLEMAN (ATLANTA FALCONS)

What a disappointing season for Falcons fans. As if it weren’t bad enough, the Baltimore Ravens come to town on a hot streak. On the season, the Ravens are the second best against the run. On the season, the Falcons are second to last on the Running Back position. More negative news, the Falcons are trending down and could wind up last by the end of the season.

Sure, Tevin Coleman saved his week 12 by scoring that touchdown against the Saints. Without it, he would have scored 2.3 fantasy points (0.5 ppr).  In the two weeks prior to that, he scored a total of 18 points. One of their opponents was the Cleveland Browns. Read above if you haven’t already, the Browns are not good against the Running Back! If he cannot succeed against bad defenses, why should we believe that he will do well against a good defense? Sit him down! Put him to bed without his pudding.

Side note: He’s not doing himself any favors with his pending free agency. I’m currently glad that all of my dynasty trade offers to get Coleman were rejected earlier this season.

MARLON MACK (INDIANAPOLIS COLTS)

The Colts travel to Jacksonville to face the hapless Jaguars, it’s true. However, the Jaguars are still pretty decent against the run, particularly the Running Back position. They haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown to a Running Back since week 7 against the Texans (Lamar Miller). They allowed two rushing touchdowns last week against the Bills, but one was a QB play and the other was a Wide Receiver!

On the season, the Jags are the best defense against the Running Back position. The last time the Colts faced this running defense, Marlon Mack rushed 12 times for 29 yards. Andrew Luck will be passing the ball. I believe it’s more likely that Nyheim Hines gets a touchdown than Mack.

I haven’t even mentioned the short practice week that Mack has had because of the concussion protocol. It’s just not a good week to start Marlon Mack.

Tight End: Start ’em

JORDAN REED (WASHINGTON REDSKINS)

As much as I touted the Eagles defense against the Tight End position last week, I’m promoting a Tight End who is travelling to Philly. Colt McCoy knows who the best receiver on his team is. It is Jordan Reed. The Eagles secondary is destroyed by injury. Normally, this would help the Wide Receiver position. But the Redskins are not your normal NFL defense. Dealing with injuries of their own, their offense is makeshift. The lone shining light of health? Jordan Reed. (What has the world come to that Jordan Reed is an image of health for his football team?) He will do well this week. Start him and relax.

KYLE RUDOLPH (MINNESOTA VIKINGS)

I’m hesitant to name Kyle Rudolph here because I don’t like suggesting players who aren’t playing at home, much less suggesting two of them! However, Kyle Rudolph is coming off of a decent performance against the Packers. The Packers aren’t bad against the Tight End. This week, the Vikings travel to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots. The Patriots give up 15.6 points per game to the Tight End position and are listed as the fourth worst against the position. With Stefon Diggs still listed as questionable with his knee, the Vikings might be able to exploit that defensive weakness and give Rudolph some targets.

It’s a long shot, but I like it in week 13.

Tight End: Sit ’em

TREY BURTON (CHICAGO BEARS)

He is due for a good game. However, the Bears are starting Chase Daniel for the second week in a row. Last week, against Detroit Lions, Burton caught 4 of Daniel’s passes for 28 yards. 4.8 points (0.5 ppr) is okay for the Tight End position this season, but it will not win your week for you. I could argue that he had 7 targets. That is not a winning argument though:

Player Pass or Catch %
Chase Daniels 73%
Trey Burton 57%

 

Chase Daniel’s pass percentage vs Burton’s catch percentage would indicate that the problem did not lie with the Quarterback in week 12. Recent performance with Mitch Trubisky + last week’s performance against Lions means Trey Burton is on my bench until he proves worthy of a start. I am not rolling the dice this week, not even against the New York Giants.

JIMMY GRAHAM (GREEN BAY PACKERS)

That injured thumb isn’t doing him any favors. This week, the Green Bay Packers are at home against the Arizona Cardinals. Jimmy Graham will not be needed. Aaron Jones is going to enjoy a late Thanksgiving feast. Even if Jimmy Graham was healthy, I believe he would be game scripted out of a good performance.

The Cardinals are actually pretty decent against the Tight End position. This could be due to their weakness against the run. Don’t fix it if it isn’t broken! If you can win by running the ball, keep running the ball! Sorry, Jimmy Graham. Maybe next week?

Good luck to each of you in week 13! Unless you’re facing me. In that case, I hope your weekend to-do list has grown substantially and you neglect your fantasy teams. I am in more “win and you’re in the playoffs” situations than I care to admit. It will be a stressful weekend in the Marc house.

QB Streaming Options for Week 13


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Last Week’s Result: My main streaming option of Jameis Winston came through for anyone who played him. He finished with 312 yards and 2 TDs for 26.88 fantasy points. This choice brings the weekly average points for my main option up to 23.66 fantasy points per week. That is all production that could have been achieved without spending any significant draft capital on a QB. If you build the rest of your team depth correctly you can stream your way to the playoffs and a potentially a fantasy championship.

The bye weeks are over so there might be less people looking to stream QBs, but you could have a tough match up or be disappointed with the fantasy output of a guy like Tom Brady who plays the Vikings this week. You could need a replacement as Trubisky will be missing another week. In any of those situations here are the guys available it at least 50% of Yahoo leagues that I like for this week.

Main Streaming Option: Lamar Jackson

Over the last few weeks we have likely seen the end of Joe Flacco’s time as the starting QB in Baltimore. Jackson has come in and gotten wins in both of his starts, putting Baltimore in a good position to challenge for a playoff spot. His passing numbers are not necessarily pretty, but his legs provide him with an extremely high floor. Over his 2 starts he has rushed 37 times for 190 yards and a TD. He has put up over 10 fantasy points a game on his rushing alone. This week he is playing at Atlanta who has been terrible on defense, the over/under is not as high as I like for a streamer at 48, but Jackson’s rushing is enough to compensate for that. Atlanta’s struggles against running backs in the passing game should play into the safer passes Baltimore will be calling, it could mean more use of Ty Montgomery for Baltimore. I am looking at leagues with 6 points per passing TD for the purpose of this article, so that hurts Jackson a little, but if you are in a league with 4 points for a passing TD Jackson is an ever stronger streaming candidate.

Alternate 1: Case Keenum

Keenum is widely available, owned in only 19% of leagues as of right now. He has been mostly disappointing for fantasy purposes so far this year, but he is stepping into a great match up. The Bengals on average are allowing over 300 yards and just over 2 passing TDs to opposing QBs. The Bengals lost their QB, do not seem to have as much to play for and it is the type of match up Keenum needs to be able to take advantage of. Denver is coming off of 2 big wins and will need to continue that here to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Bengals started the season looking like a potential wild card team and it has gone downhill since week 6. The team does not have much left to play for and it feels like the Dalton injury might be enough to completely break their spirit.

Alternate 2: Derek Carr

Derek Carr was bad against the Ravens’ defense last week. The Raiders do not have a lot of weapons in the passing game at this point, but they are in a game where the game scrip will likely force them to abandon the run. They are a huge underdog against the Chiefs at home in the game with the highest over/under of the week at 55.5. Derek Carr is a volume play for fantasy this week. Teams have attempted the most passes per game against the Chiefs with 42.5 per game. They have allowed 320 yards passing to opposing offenses. The Raiders have been one of the worst teams in football and they do not stand much of a chance of slowing the Chiefs down, by the 2nd half they will be forced to abandon the run and throw on most downs. It might be ugly but the volume will lead to stats and fantasy points for Carr. Carr is owned in only 18% of Yahoo leagues so you can plug him if you need him.

We are heading towards the fantasy playoffs, the most important time of the year. You need to make the right choices or you could miss out. I will be here with recommendations through championship week.


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WEEK 13 DRAFTKINGS/FANDUEL SELECTIONS


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QUARTERBACK

Cam Newton: at TB (DK 6600; FD 8700)

It’s hard to go wrong with the QB1 in fantasy football through 12 weeks in Patrick Mahomes or the 2015 MVP in Cam Newton.  Cam provides salary relief on both sites and at least the Buccaneers can score and keep the game close compared to what should be a one-sided affair in the Chiefs, Raiders matchup.  Don’t let Nick Mullen’s lackluster performance fool you into thinking Tampa Bay can play any semblance of defense because that defensive unit is awful.  The formula remains unchanged and Cam Newton will prove yet again that targeting the Buccaneers against fantasy quarterbacks is still a viable strategy.

Jameis Winston: vs CAR (DK 6000; FD 7500)

He’s thrown for over 300 yards in three of the four games he has started and meets a divisional foe that has given up nine games of multiple passing touchdowns.  Jameis Winston has the weapons on the outside in Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, and Chris Godwin against a Panthers secondary that is exploitable on the perimeter and is part of a pass-heavy offense that should give the Panthers a run for their money in this potential shootout.  The risk in 2018 has been the rotation at quarterback at a moment’s notice but at this point, Tampa Bay’s front office needs to determine if he will be in their future plans that Winston being benched shouldn’t occur anymore.  He and the quarterback to be described below are two of the better mid-tier priced quarterback options on the main slate this week.

Lamar Jackson: at ATL (DK 5900; FD 7500)

He was still able to return value on both sites despite the Ravens defense keeping the offense off the field by forcing both a fumble and punt return for a touchdown against the Raiders.  Lamar Jackson has averaged an astounding 12.5 fantasy points with just his running ability in his first two NFL starts and now gets a Falcons defense that allows the second-most passing touchdowns and the second-most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks.  Rostering the quarterback from Louisville comes with risk in the case that he doesn’t manufacture a touchdown which occurred in his first start against the Bengals.  Nonetheless, Jackson’s dynamic ability to scramble out of the pocket, as evidenced by his 39 yard run in the 4th quarter this past Sunday, makes him worth consideration for rostering at his reasonable salary for a third straight week.

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffery: at TB (DK 8800; FD 8800)

One of the deterrents in rostering Christian McCaffery this week will be the soaring ownership levels after an incredible 41.2 FD/52.7 DK performance in a loss against the Seahawks.  However, not rostering him can prove detrimental against this Buccaneers team that has allowed 641 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns to the position over the last four weeks.  McCaffery has handled 92.6% of the running back touches in this same timeframe including all of them in week 12.  Simply put, the Buccaneers defense has no ability to slow him down and paying up for CMC gets you the running back that posted three touchdowns against them four weeks ago.

Kareem Hunt: at OAK (DK 7800; FD 8900)

The last time Oakland gave up less than 100 rushing yards to the running back position was way back in week 6 against the Chargers.  If Gus Edwards can log 100 yards on the ground, Kareem Hunt shouldn’t find this task too challenging in a much more efficient Kansas City offense.   Back to his days with Philadelphia, teams led by Andy Reid have performed well following the bye week and against a terrible Raiders team that the Chiefs are favored to defeat by more than two touchdowns, there shouldn’t be any threat of an upset.  As long as that plays out, Hunt will be in line for plenty of work throughout the duration of this game.

Aaron Jones: vs ARI (DK 6700; FD 7600)

Like the Bucs and Raiders, attacking the Cardinals with running backs is in play each week, especially after Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler slaughtered them for 169 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns on the ground.  Enter Aaron Jones who has assumed the bell-cow duties for the Packers following their bye week and it correlates well for him to be a one-man wrecking crew against this Cardinals team that has allowed at least 75 rushing yards in every game this season.  He’s crossed the pylons six times since he was entrusted with the feature back duties and he has one of the highest Week 14 touchdown potentials-with the Packers favored by two touchdowns.

Phillip Lindsay: at CIN (DK 5400; FD 7000)

Andy Dalton is on season-ending IR, the Bengals were defeated by their in-state rivals for the first time in four years, and the inevitability of firing Marvin Lewis looms in the horizon.  The Bengals are a mess and it sets up well for the Broncos to head into Paul Brown Stadium and continue Cincinnati’s downward spiral.  Phillip Lindsay continues to dominate the touches over Royce Freeman and gets a Bengals defense this week that hemorrhages yardages and touchdowns on the ground.  11 carries for 60 yards has been the floor for Lindsay over the last five weeks with five rushing touchdowns in that span.  He has a solid floor that is slightly touchdown-dependent but has a great chance of crossing the pylons this week as the Bengals have allowed at least one rushing touchdown in six straight games.

WIDE RECEIVER 

Adam Thielen: at NE (DK 8000; FD 8100)

The Patriots have fared much better against receivers lined up on the perimeter as of late but are still susceptible to those lined up in the slot.  If New England determines that Stefon Diggs (if he plays) is the bigger threat and focuses on taking him out of the game, it’s going to open up more opportunities for Adam Thielen to slaughter this defense that surrenders the 5th most FPA to slot receivers.  He’s discounted on both sites this week after his 9th 100+ receiving yard game as the Vikings played on Sunday night.  Thielen is seeing 11.27 targets per game and it’s safe to expect double-digit targets again as the Vikings travel to Gillette Stadium as 5-point underdogs and may be required to play catch-up.

Kenny Golladay: vs LAR (DK 6700; FD 7300)

With Marvin Jones and Golden Tate removed from the equation, it leaves Kenny Golladay as Matthew Stafford’s best receiving option for the remainder of the season.  Since the Tate trade, Golladay has been peppered with targets, averaging 10 of them in those four games and now with Jones on IR, that number has a chance to rise.  This young receiver possesses the ability to break off a deep shot for a score against a Rams secondary that has been torched over the last month and one that is tied for last with the Raiders in allowing 12 pass plays of 40+ yards.  Vegas has Detroit as 10-point underdogs at home and it’s safe to say that the Lions could be playing from behind where Golladay will be counted on to get the Lions back in it.

Emmanuel Sanders: at CIN (DK 6300; FD 7000)

Truth be told, he could have done more damage against the Steelers if not for a few drops that he should have brought in.  Nonetheless, Emmanuel Sanders performed well against his former mates and now faces a Cincinnati defense that won’t be able to keep up with his daunting speed.  Recent receivers that have amassed the required 20+ fantasy points to hit 3x this week against this porous secondary include Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Michael Thomas.  Evans ripped off a 72 yard shot for a score, something that is within the skillset of this speedy Broncos receiver who should have his way at Paul Brown Stadium.

Chris Godwin: vs CAR (DK 3900; FD 5400)

This play is certainly contingent on DeSean Jackson being unable to play on Sunday with a thumb injury.  In the final two games that Jackson missed in 2017, Chris Godwin posted 10 receptions for 209 yards and a touchdown in his absence.  Of course, Mike Evans will be the first receiving option but Godwin has shown he can be a reliable option and this weekend will battle opposite James Bradberry and Donte Jackson, cornerbacks that are responsible for Carolina allowing the 7th most FPA to receivers lined up on the perimeter.  If DeSean plays this weekend, it nullifies Godwin’s ceiling as they will eat into each other’s targets.  If he warms the bench, Godwin has the potential to do some serious damage at an inexpensive salary.

TIGHT END

David Njoku: at HOU (DK 4300; FD 5500)

He performed as he should have against a hapless Bengals defense and now faces a Houston one that also has its struggles against tight ends.  The Texans are surrendering a floor of seven catches for 71 yards and a touchdown to the position in the last three games; Jonnu Smith comes to mind as the latest to victimize that defense.  Ideally, more targets would provide more comfort as David Njoku hasn’t seen at least six in a game since week 7.  Yet, if he can continue to capitalize on the targets he does receive, catching 90.9% of since them since that game against Tampa Bay, he can prove viable in this spot at a reasonable salary on both sites.

Eric Ebron: at JAX (DK 4200; FD 5600)

Enjoy his lowest salary for the rest of the season as the week 13 salaries had already posted when Jack Doyle was placed on season-ending IR on Monday.  Eric Ebron benefits from being part of an Indianapolis offense that has thrown the most touchdown passes to tight ends and now that Doyle is out of the picture, he will assume additional snaps and volume.  He averaged 10 targets from week 3 to week 7 when Doyle was inactive vs 3.66 when he was on the field and it bodes well this week against a Jaguars team that had surrendered six touchdowns in three games to tight ends prior to their matchup against the Bills last week.

Matt LaCosse: at CIN (DK 2500; FD 4700)

He’s the bare minimum on DraftKings as Jeff Heuerman will miss the rest of the season but this is anything but a punt play.  Matt LaCosse encounters a Bengals team that gives up the 2nd most FPA to tight ends and allowed both David Njoku and Darren Fells to score touchdowns last week.  He made his presence felt right away by hauling in his first career touchdown against the Steelers when Heuerman succumbed to injury.  Returning value in this spot on DraftKings should be simple for LaCosse as all he needs is a few catches for some yardage against this Bengals defense that is in competition to be one of the worst units in the history of the league.

DEFENSE

Green Bay: vs ARI (DK 2800; FD 4400)

The Cardinals have eclipsed 20 points just twice this year, a perfect recipe for a Green Bay defense that possesses a +9.8 FPPG differential in games played at Lambeau Field.  The Packers have sacked the quarterback multiple times in every home game as well as forced multiple turnovers in three of five, something to keep in mind as Josh Rosen has thrown at least one interception in six straight games.

Denver: at CIN (DK 2700; FD 4500)

Jeff Driskel is now the starting quarterback for the Bengals and we’re not sure which A.J. Green will return Sunday now that he’s declared himself ready to play.  Both of these facts downgrade the Bengals offense against a Broncos defense that forces 1.63 turnovers and three sacks per contest.

Kansas City: at OAK (DK 2500; FD 4300)

The Chiefs have forced at least five sacks as well as multiple turnovers in three of their last four games.  They travel to the Black Hole to duel with an Oakland offense that is scoring 12.25 points per game in the last four weeks and has allowed 4.75 sacks per game in that same timeframe.

PRICE SHOPPING

Each week, I will identify what players are bargains based on the salary cap percentage difference they represent on the respective site.  Here are the notable week 13 bargains from both sites:

NOTABLE DRAFTKINGS BARGAINS

QB Matt Ryan: 2.96

QB Andrew Luck: 2.06

TE Matt LaCosse: 2.86

TE Ricky Seals-Jones: 2.86

DEF Kansas City: 2.16

DEF Denver: 2.1

NOTABLE FANDUEL BARGAINS

RB Christian McCaffery: 3.14

RB Todd Gurley: 2.27

RB Dalvin Cook: 2.07

WR Tyreek Hill: 4.2


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5 Rounds of Week 13 DRAFT Advice


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Note: The article has been edited to remove suggestions to play Kareem Hunt since his Friday release 

I’ll be helping you navigate this user-friendly and competitive way to play DFS every week this season. My advice is based on 6 team standard fast draft formats.

If you’re not familiar with DRAFT I highly encourage you to jump into your App store or Google Play store and download the most user-friendly and fun DFS app out there. You can try DRAFT by taking advantage of our promo code “Top2”-you’ll get a free $3 entry. My takes are a combination of stats, match-up analysis, and what I’ve seen drafting this week: to draft with me next week add me MattHicks15.

Round 1: 2 (RBS) & I’m Out

There’s only 3 running backs I’m willing to spend my 1st round pick on this week; luckily they aren’t necessarily the first 3 going off the board. Mixed in with the 3 listed below, are Barkley and Conner. Barkley may seem tempting still since Chicago has allowed the 11th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, however, they’ve allowed the 7th least receiving yards to running backs, including just 5 touchdowns through the air. Combined that with what’s likely to be a stalled offense and Khalil Mack sealing the edge, and I’m out on an otherwise lock play. Conner has just 35 carries, 143 rushing yards, and 1 touchdown combined in his last 3 weeks-and his match-up against the Chargers doesn’t inspire me enough to burn my top pick. Here’s the guys I would take:

  • Todd Gurley

This game is the second highest over/under of the week (55 points) and the Rams have the second highest implied total of the week (32). The Lions have allowed the 7th most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, and 11 total touchdowns. Gurley is reportedly back to full health after an ankle scare in his last game. He’s my 2ndfavorite pick this week.

  • Christian McCaffery

CMC has finished as a top 2 running back twice in the last 3 weeks. Those match-ups were against the 9th best defense against the rush (Pittsburgh) and Seattle, which is ranked 18th against the rush. This week, he gets the Bucs-they’ve ranked 25th against the run and have allowed the 11th most receiving yards to running backs and 17 total touchdowns this season. Vegas pegs this game as high-scoring (54.5) and I peg this as the week Carolina declares they’re back in the conversation as a playoff contender.

The 2nd Round Should be Stacked

The drop off at running back makes it essential to pivot quickly if players don’t drop to you in the back end of the first. It does create the opportunity to reel in a money-making stack: Mahomes and Tyreek Hill.

I’ve already made the case for the Kansas City offense, and Mahomes needs no further explanation. Hill has finished as the WR1 in Weeks 10 and 11, and he’s fresh off a Week 12 bye. In Weeks 10 and 11 he combined for 342 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. Oakland has allowed the 6th most touchdowns to opposing wideouts this season and is ranked 28th in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. My suggestion is to take Mahomes in 1st-Tyreek has consistently made it to the early 2nd for me, but if he does get taken you can pivot again (cue Friends reference) and stack Mahomes with Kelce later on.


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Backs Run the 3rd Round

Good things will come to those who wait for their 2nd running back this week. Steer right past Johnson and Mixon’s negative game scripts and grab one of these guys, who have consistently been available in the third. Note: Davante Adams makes a great 3rd round value (high floor, high implied total) if you do start with 2 running backs.

  • Phillip Lindsey

Lindsey rushed for 110 yards and a touchdown in Week 12, on just 14 touches against the Steelers 10th ranked rush defense. In Week 11 he rushed for 79 yards and 2 touchdowns on just 11 touches, against the 15th ranked Chargers rush defense. In Week 13 he faces the Bengals 32nd (aka worst) ranked run defense. Cincinnati has allowed 1,896 total yards and 17 total touchdowns to opposing running backs this season. Add into the mix that Denver is likely to have a positive game script against a Driskell-led Bengals team, and this one is a no-brainier.

  • Aaron Jones

Jones has found the endzone in 4 of his 5 games since Week 6. He’s scored 6 times in those 5 games, including 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games. He’s also totaled at least 85 combined yards in all 5 oft hose games and finished as RB4 in Week 10 against Miami. Not only does Jones have a positive game-script, he’s facing the second worst rushing defense in the league. The Cardinals have allowed 1,454 rushing yards (2ndmost) and 14 rushing touchdowns (the most) to running backs this season. Jones is a close 3B to Lindsey’s 3A value this week.

  • Nick Chubb

Chubb rushed for more than 84 yards just once under Jackson and Haley. Since their dismissal, and the subsequent offensive makeover under Kitchens, Chubb’s rushed for 84 yards in all 3 games. Chubb’s also had two games with at least 33 receiving yards, compared to 0 games with more than 10 receiving yards. Chubb also has 5 total touchdowns since Kitchens took over. Chubb falls below Lindsey and Jones for me, however, because his match-up vs Houston this week (6th best run defense) is significantly tougher than his previous 3 against Kansas City, Atlanta, and Cincinnati.

Be Patient and You Shall Receive in the 4th

Two big names have been hanging around late this week. They’re being pushed down by tough match-ups, mid-round running back value, and a nincreased appeal to tight ends like Kelce and Ertz. Still, these two names bring enough of a floor to justify their weekly upside potential.

  • Odell Beckham Jr.

OBJ’s match-up is tough, but not as tough as you may think. Chicago is ranked 1st in DVOA and this game has the 2nd lowest over/under total (with the Giants having an implied total of 20 points). The Bears, however, have been a strong run defense (2nd) than pass defense (18th). They’ve allowed the 7th most receiving yards to wide outs this season and have allowed 14 touchdowns. It’s also worth noting that the Bears will likely be led again by Daniel-who performed well against the Lions but still has very little experience as a starter-a positive game script for the Bears isn’t guaranteed.

  • Antonio Brown

I understand OBJ slipping, but Brown makes no sense to me. The Chargers are the 7th best passing defense this season and 9th in DVOA, however, they have still allowed 10 touchdowns to wideouts. Although Brown didn’t catch a touchdown pass in Week12, he has found the endzone in 9 of the 11 games he’s played this season-including two multiple touchdown weeks. He’s worthy of a 3rdround pick, even with the match-up, making him a must grab if he’s falling toyou as far as he’s fallen to me this week.  

5, Round 5 Quick QB Pivots

I mentioned earlier Mahomes has 1st round value,I also expect Newton to go off the board in the mid-rounds. I quickly broked own the highlights of my next 5 highest ranked QBs (in order) for Week 13.

  • Andrew Luck

Projections will be low for Luck this week because, overall, the Jaguars defense has been solid (17th) against quarterbacks this season. The Jaguars offense, however, is in shambles-with Bortles benched and Fournette suspended. While Jacksonville has been imploding, Luck has quietly racked up 8 straight weeks with top 10 fantasy finishes (excluding his bye week).

  • Jared Goff

The red-hot Rams are coming off a huge win against Kansas City and a full week of rest. Prior to his bye, Goff had thrown for at least 300 yards 3 weeks in a row-and posted a 9:1 touchdown to interception ratio. He’s likely to beat up against a Lions defense that has allowed the 11thmost fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, the 4thmost in the last month, and the 4th most touchdowns on the season.

  • Kirk Cousins

I’ve seen a lot of hesitancy to play Cousins this week, which baffles me. Cousins is coming off his 2ndbest week of the season-posting 342 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions against the Packers in Week 12. In Week 13 he faces off against the Patriots,who have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, including the 10th most passing yards and 9th most passing touchdowns. Cousins has a safe floor, and big upside in a prove-it game for a team that still considers themselves a Super Bowl contender.

  • Lamar Jackson

If you get past the 5 guys I mentioned above, it’s time to go for upside-and Lamar Jackson is all the upside you could ever want. Since taking over as “starter” in Baltimore, Jackson has averaged 259 total yards per game-including an average of 95 rushing yards. The Falcons have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks,the 2nd most passing touchdowns, the 6th most rushing yards, and the 4th most touchdowns.

  • Russell Wilson

Wilson is coming off his best passing game of the season-throwing for 339 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Panthers. This week he faces off a depleted 49ers team, who have allowed the 8th most points to opposing quarterbacks this season, including allowing 23 touchdowns and only pulling in 2 touchdowns. Vegas implies 28 points for Seattle,suggesting at least 2 touchdowns, with upside for much more for Wilson.

Redraft Waiver Wire Targets: Week 13


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We’re done with byes, playoffs are starting or will start for some in week 14 and everyone is at full strength. The question now is what do you do? Well, injuries still happen as well as roster tinkering. Just because you made it to the playoff doesn’t mean waiver wire picking stops. You ride that skill to the championships!

Due to our scheduled releases, this will be completed before the Monday night games as well as before I’ve had time to digest every game in depth. So with that being said,  stay tuned to my tweets for more gems later on in the week and Follow THE Fantasy Vigilante HERE!

Case Keenum

ESPN OWN %: 9.2

YAHOO OWN%: 16

Being a Steelers fan, this pains me to even have him on this article. However, in this line of work we must remain unbiased so here goes. You’ve lost Alex Smith, Bortles got benched, Dalton is out for the year and there just isn’t a lot of guys you feel comfortable starting. Case Keenum should be worth taking the shot. His schedule is relatively easy down the stretch so that should be some extra confidence for player looking for a QB replacement. For reference his remaining schedule is: CIN, SF, CLE, OAK.

Josh Allen

ESPN OWN %: 1.5

YAHOO OWN%: 3

I’m not saying shirk your starters for the guy, but if you need a QB replacement, give him a shot. He just performed pretty well against JAX who isn’t a slouch defensively although they’ve been under-performing. His slate only gets easier to wind down the season with the next 3 being MIA, NYJ and DET.

Matt LaCosse

ESPN OWN %: 0

YAHOO OWN%: 0 

Heuerman is out for the season and Matt should be the next man up. If you need assistance at the TE position and maybe in a deeper league than normal, Matt could end up being good for you. He didn’t look bad at all out there against the Steelers and like Keenum, he has a decent schedule ahead of him.

Chris Herndon

ESPN OWN %: 9.9

YAHOO OWN%: 8

Again, another replacement level TE, Herndon gets enough opportunity share to be a viable option. He’s also getting looks in the redzone which is one of the better ways of measuring the players chances of getting into the endzone. His opportunity seems to have not changed between McCown and Darnold, so his production should be safe despite which QB is in.

Josh Reynolds

ESPN OWN %: 33.8

YAHOO OWN%: 51

He may be out of range for you Yahoo players, but as always ESPN is behind the curb. Reynolds is in the Cooper Kupp role and so far he hasn’t been bad. If you need a decent flex option in a pinch, Reynolds is definitely an option. With an offense like the Rams, he’s gonna see his fair share of opportunity to produce.

Adam Humphries

ESPN Own %: 28.2

Yahoo Own%: 30

This offense spreads the ball around a lot and Adam has been benefiting from it. In the last month he has been very easily a great flex option out performing expected production. Getting roughly 6 targets a game, he’s worth a shot to shore up your receiver corps.

Bruce Ellington

ESPN OWN %: 0

YAHOO OWN%: 0 

Purely based on the targets alone he’s worth a shot. With Marvin Jones down for the season he has to be a big part of the passing offense along with Kenny and Theo, so he’ll have a high floor on a nightly basis.

Dontrelle Inman

ESPN OWN %: 8.3

YAHOO OWN%: 2

Consistent and a high catch rate. Two things I want out of my fantasy options and Inman gives them to you. With the news breaking about Jack Doyle being down for the year, I expect him along with TY and Eric to see more looks the rest of the season. From what I can see, he seems to be a trustworthy option for Andrew Luck.

Curtis Samuel

ESPN Own %: 6.3

YAHOO OWN%: 9

My guy Hilal @hjchami on twitter beats the drum for this guys harder than anyone I know and I’m starting to see why. Samuel’s month of production has been with limited touches but he does SO much with them. With his uptick in production, he and Moore should see more work and make Torrey Smith ghost and maybe even steal some show from Funchess as well. He really is a high ceiling-low floor type of guy.

C.J. Uzomah

ESPN OWN %: 30.1 

YAHOO OWN%: 29

From what I’ve read and looked over, his production wont change with Driskel at the helm. Even though he’s not blowing the doors off, he’s contributing enough to be a viable option at your tight end spot. If they decide not to bring AJ Green back, he’ll see a lot of targets alongside Boyd.

My new plea to you all for this part of the season is to continue to watch the waivers. Not because of bye weeks wrecking teams, but teams are out of the playoffs so drops will happen. Also, with teams back at full strength, “placeholder players” will also be dropped and if you’re struggling with depth, this is still a great time to continue to tinker.

You set yourself up in the draft, you win through waivers! Go get your #waiverxmas on and come home with a #Top2TypeVictory!


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Dynasty Trash Pile: Week 13 Edition


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I’ll be digging through the trash for your next waiver stash. These 3 guys are barely owned. They might not be huge contributors to your squad right now, but could possibly be useful down the road. Here goes:

1. Brandon Powell, WR, Detroit Lions
(2.5% owned in FFPC leagues)
Vs Chicago, Vs Los Angeles Rams, @ Arizona

Powell was an undrafted player out of Florida. Standing at 5’8” and 181lbs, he was mainly featured in the slot and also returned kick offs and punts. During the preseason, he was targeted 20 times in 4 contests. He displayed his quickness and physicality and ended up snagging 16 receptions for 103 yards. His most talked about play was his punt return against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 3. Powell fielded the ball towards the left sideline, ran towards the middle of the field and juked a few defenders before sprinting towards the right side of the field for an 80 yard score. Even with his heavy usage in the preseason, Powell was cut and then signed to the practice squad.

Golden Tate took the rookie under his wing and helped him since his addition to the practice squad and even praised Powell more than once when speaking to the media. With Golden Tate traded to Philadelphia at the trade deadline, the Lions have turned to T.J. Jones as the next man in line for the slot receiver duties. As of right now, Jones has underwhelmed by only catching 5 passes for 42 yards in the 4 games played without Tate. Powell has only seen the field as a receiver in one of them (week 10 against the Chicago Bears). He played 25 snaps (a 32% snap share), was targeted 3 times and caught one reception late in the game for 6 yards.

The past 2 weeks, Powell was inactive due to the addition of free agent wide receiver Bruce Ellington. Ellington appears to have taken this role from T.J. Jones as he seen an 82% snap share in week 12 and has caught 12 passes for 80 yards the past 2 weeks. As you can see, there is definite PPR value in this position on the Lions team. This season appears as if it could be a wash for Powell. Ellington seems to be the key here. If the Lions end up bringing Ellington back, it honestly could mean that Powell won’t get his shot. However, if Ellington either gets hurt or signs elsewhere, Powell could be a worthy stash for your dynasty roster, or he could be banana peel that has been sitting your garbage can for days. You have to love fantasy football and it’s unpredictability.

2. Jeff Driskel, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
(0.0% owned in FFPC leagues)
Vs Denver, @ Los Angeles Chargers, Vs Oakland

Driskel was drafted in the 6th Round in 2016 out of Louisiana Tech by the San Francisco 49ers. He has a decent arm and is not afraid to run the ball (he ran a 4.5 40 yard dash at the Combine). In his first training camp Driskel lost out to Christian Ponder for the 3rd String Quarterback and was placed on waivers. The Bengals scooped Driskel up and he served their 3rd string QB behind Dalton and A.J. McCarron in 2016. In practice during the 2017 preseason, Driskel broke his hand was placed on IR.

He was brought back in 2018 to battle for the backup quarterback position with Matt Barkley and with strong play in the preseason (34/58 for 58.6% completion rate, 448 yards, 2 td’s 1 INT), he landed the job. Driskel has since been plugged in for duty in a few separate occasions this season. The first appearance of Driskel was in mop-up duty against the Chiefs in week 7. Driskel ended up throwing 4 passes (all completed) for 39 yards. In another blowout vs the Saints in week 10, he was again sent in for mop-up duties. In this contest, however, he would score a nice touchdown run. On a 4th and 1 from the 27 yard line, Driskel faked a handoff up the middle to running back Mark Walton and confused the entire defensive line. He would go untouched down the left sideline for a score. His final stat line of that game read 2/3 45 yards, 2 rushes, 35 yards and a touchdown.

This past week against the Cleveland Browns is when Driskel would actually be pressed into duty due to an Andy Dalton injury. After Dalton injured his thumb, Driskel was sent in and played fairly well. In the 3rd quarter on the 27 yard line on a 1st and 10, Driskel found Tyler Boyd running down the middle for a quick strike that would go for a touchdown. Then, in the 4th quarter on a 1st and goal, Driskel called his number and took it up the middle (with help from Joe Mixon) for a rushing touchdown. After helping his team score 2 touchdowns, he almost led them to a comeback, but they just fell short. Driskel ended his day going 17/29, 155 yards, 1 touchdown and 3 rushes for 9 yards and another score. He did throw an interception in this contest, but it was called back after a roughing the passer call went his way that wiped it out.

Driskel is serviceable for you Dalton owners (Dalton was just placed on IR). Driskel is definite Trash Pile material as he is another player that will be free for all you FAAB cheapskates.

3. Jason Croom, TE, Buffalo Bills
(1.05% owned in FFPC leagues)
@ Miami, Vs New York Jets, Vs Detroit

We finalize the Trash Pile this week, appropriately, with a tight end. As many of you know, tight end is a wasteland this season. If you don’t have the top 5 guys, you basically are plugging in nuts and bolts to try to get basically anything from the position. Croom played college ball for the University of Tennessee, where he was used sparingly and only scored 6 touchdowns in his collegiate career. Going undrafted, the Buffalo Bills signed him in 2017. After being placed on the IR for a short amount of time in the preseason of 2017, he was then cut. Then in November of that same year was finally signed to the practice squad.

After a large chunk of a season learning from Charles Clay, Croom finally showcased his skills in week 3 of the preseason vs the Bengals. In this game, Croom ran a tight end screen pattern and Nathan Peterman found him and Croom did the rest. From 18 yards out, Croom weaved away from a tackler, ran down the right sideline and jumped between 2 defenders for a score. This solidified his role as the backup to Charles Clay. Croom was on the opening day roster and has since had some success.

In week 3 against the Vikings, Josh Allen found Croom on a play action pass down the right sideline and he ran it in for a 26 yard touchdown (untouched). Croom has also been heavily targeted in a few matchups. Against the Chargers in week 2 he had 4 targets and against the Bears in week 9, he had 5 targets (catching 3) for 36 yards. With Charles Clay being often injured and the only other tight end on the roster being a converted quarterback in Logan Thomas, Croom could have some dynasty value.

This value could be limited though, but most tight end value this year is limited. If you have a larger roster, Croom might be a name to look into. Basically Croom is a player sitting on the curb with a piece of cardboard with sharpie on it that says “FREE”. How much do you like picking up free trash?


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