The Final 2019 NFL Mock Draft: 3rd Round

The Fanalysts have been grinding draft tape, monitoring team needs, and mock drafting since December. This 7-part mock-draft is one continuous mock draft and the our final one of the season for us. We will be releasing one article per day in the week leading up to the 2019 NFL Draft.

This is a summary of the 3rd Round of our mock draft for the 2019 NFL Draft. Below are links all other rounds of our final mock for the 2019 NFL Draft:

2019 NFL Draft 7th Round Mock
2019 NFL Draft 6th Round Mock
2019 NFL Draft 5th Round Mock 2019 NFL Draft 4th Round Mock

For more on the fantasy football values of the 2019 Draft Class, check out our 2019 Rookie Database

PickTeamPlayer
65Arizona CardinalsEmmanuel Hall, WR, Missouri
66Pittsburgh SteelersAmani Hooker, S, Iowa
67San Francisco 49ersRiley Ridley, WR, Georgia
68New York JetsRoss Pierschbacher, iOL, Alabama
69Jacksonville JaguarsTrayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M
70Tampa Bay BuccaneersDavid Long, CB, Michigan

It’s hard for me to pick just one pick from this group that stands out because they all do. Emmanuel Hall should be a welcome addition to the offensive arsenal of Arizona. The Steelers get a nice upgrade at safety with Amani Hooker. The 49ers have questions at wide receiver and Riley Ridley should answer those questions. The Jets want to protect Sam Darnold and Ross Pierschbacher does just that. If you are worried about Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville then Trayveon Williams is a perfect compliment/insurance policy. The Bucs get a corner in David Long who I believe is a tremendous value in the 3rd round.

This was a very solid start to the 3rd round and shows just how much value can be had beyond rounds 1 and 2. This is the year for your team to have as many picks as possible because good to great players will be falling throughout the draft due to tremendous depth.

PickTeamPlayer
71Denver BroncosDax Raymond, TE, Utah State
72Cincinnati BengalsKaleb McGary, OT, Washington
73New England PatriotsKahale Warring, TE, SDSU
74Buffalo BillsJosh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
75Green Bay PackersBlake Cashman, LB, Minnesota
76Washington RedskinsElgton Jenkins, iOL, Ole Miss

A couple of tight ends off the board to teams with a need at the position. I like Dax Raymond a lot and feel as if he could be a great value for Denver. Kahale Warring certainly has the tools to be a solid starter in New England but he’ll have some Gronk sized shoes to fill.

Josh Jacobs is a very interesting pick to me. First of all, he’s not going in the 3rd round. This is how our guys feel about Josh Jacobs but he’s likely going higher than this. The landing spot, Buffalo, has a couple of elder statesmen in Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy along with the recently signed TJ Yeldon. With the ages of Gore and McCoy along with the brief terms of Yeldon’s contract (2 years), I see Jacobs as a very nice developmental pick for Buffalo.

PickTeamPlayer
77Carolina PanthersDaniel Jones, QB, Duke
78Miami DolphinsJaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Tech
79Atlanta FalconsRock Ya-Sin, CB, Temple
80Cleveland BrownsBobby Okereke, LB, Stanford
81Minnesota VikingsRenell Wren, iDL, Arizona State
82Tennessee TitansWill Grier, QB, West Virginia

The two quarterbacks taken from picks 77-82 stand out to me. Daniel Jones to Carolina is notable because it stands as a reminder of where we’re at with QB Cam Newton. As the person who drafted Jones to Carolina, I’m worried about Cam big time. I don’t think Carolina has done a good enough job investing in the O-Line and they will need an insurance policy in case Cam goes down.

I have never been a fan of Marcus Mariota or Ryan Tannehill. I think it’s time for the Titans to think about moving on and Will Grier is a perfect replacement. He should see playing time this season considering how injury prone both Mariota and Tannehill are. Small shoutout to the Falcons taking Rock Ya-Sin. The corner out of Temple could slot in right away at one of the outer corner spots and start day 1.

PickTeamPlayer
83Pittsburgh SteelersUgochukwu Amandi, S, Oregon
84Seattle SeahawksD’Andre Walker, EDGE, Georgia
85Baltimore RavensLJ Collier, EDGE, TCU
86Houston TexansJoejuan Williams, CB, Vanderbilt
87Chicago BearsDavid Edwards, OT, Wisonsin
88Detroit LionsTerry McLaurin, WR, Ohio State

I’ll start with the Steelers taking yet another safety. I have been adamant about the Steelers needing secondary depth so I am totally ok with that pick. If Seattle does indeed trade Frank Clark then they will need help along the defensive line and D’Andre Walker is that help.

The Bears have no picks until pick 87 and they go…Tackle. The Bears don’t have many holes but if they make their fans wait that long just to take a tackle then there will be some eye rolling. David Edwards is a very solid pick however and should compete for playing time immediately or at the very least be a nice depth option. LOVE Terry McLaurin to Detroit. There’s the replacement for Golden Tate.

PickTeamPlayer
89Indianapolis ColtsOshane Ximines, EDGE, Old Diminion
90Dallas CowboysDarnell Savage, S, Maryland
91Los Angeles ChargersBobby Evans, OT, Oklahoma
92Kansas City ChiefsJoe Giles-Harris, LB, Duke

I’m a fan of all 4 picks here towards the back end of round 3. Oshane Ximines should add nicely to the depth of the Colts defensive line. I believe Cowboys fans will do a literal back flip if they are able to land Safety Darnell Savage. That would be a lethal addition to that secondary here in round 3. The Chargers are in need of O-Line help and they address it with Bobby Evans out of Oklahoma. The Chiefs need as much defensive help as they can get so no gripes from me about taking a linebacker.

PickTeamPlayer
93New York JetsJamel Dean, CB, Auburn
94Los Angeles RamsDru Samia, iOL, Oklahoma
95New York GiantsLonnie Johnson, CB, Kentucky
96Washington RedskinsWyatt Ray, EDGE, Boston College

I’ll start with the Jets addressing corner and they have to hope Dean out of Auburn develops into a starter because their corner depth is atrocious. Dru Samia added to the Rams’ offensive line is almost not even fair. My favorite pick in all of round 3 could quite possibly be Lonnie Johnson to the Giants at 95. That is tremendous value and he should compete for playing time right away.

That wraps up round 3 of our Final 2019 NFL Mock Draft. Be on the lookout for Round 2 dropping tomorrow and be sure to comment down below on what you think about Round 3!

Extreme Wide Receiver Fantasy Point Variances

Aside from the fantasy playoffs, redraft and dynasty leagues can be viewed from a macro level where you can survive two or three bad weeks or roster decisions and succeed.  That’s quite the contrast from daily fantasy where every option on a slate is put under a microscope and one mistake can make or break your week. 

NFL players have their own tendencies where they perform better in various scenarios whether it be as a favorite or underdog, playing at home or in hostile territory, or when their respective team wins or loses a game.  We’re going to explore which players at each position performed at their best or worst in various situations from last season to try and help us discover ideal roster opportunities in daily lineups.  Note that these figures can vary from year to year when someone who performed better indoors the year before now suddenly performed better outside the following year.  Viewed in another light, these figures can be interpreted as an extension of consistency rankings.  

This piece isn’t just exclusive to DFS and has a place in non-DFS leagues where an available free agent may be in a better spot to perform than a rostered option that should be on the bench for a specific week.  This will be the final part of the three-part series that concludes with the wide receiver position and only evaluates those that played a minimum of 12 games. 

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN A STRAIGHT-UP WIN

Robby Anderson: 5.86: The Jets didn’t win much in 2018 but when they did, Robby Anderson was involved as he registered a touchdown in three of those four victories.  He closed out the campaign strong and given another offseason with second-year starter Sam Darnold, their chemistry can only continue to flourish.

DeAndre Hopkins: 5.57: Opposing secondaries  that were able to somewhat stymie Nuk held him to 82.8 receiving yards and .4 touchdowns in Houston losses.  Those that fell to his wrath allowed 105.27 receiving yards and .82 touchdowns in Houston wins.  Hopkins and Davante Adams were the only two receivers to maintain a floor of 12.4 fantasy points in every game they suited up.

Jordy Nelson: 4.9: We hadn’t been accustomed to seeing Jordy Nelson without Aaron Rodgers and from Week 5-Week 12, it wasn’t a pretty sight.  In three Raider wins that he played, he maintained a double-digit FPPG average while he was boom or total bust in 12 losses.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN A STRAIGHT-UP LOSS

JuJu Smith-Schuster: 8.89: Antonio Brown had a +1.37 FPPG differential in Steeler losses but still posted more fantasy production in games they were victorious.  Meanwhile, JuJu’s variance was much more extreme at a +8.89 FPPG differential in defeats as well as generating more production in those losses.  JuJu had a solid sophomore season as the WR8 in PPR scoring and put on a display in losses that he erupted for over 30+ fantasy points against Kansas City, Oakland, and Denver.

Tyreek Hill: 6.8: He generated 17 catches for 357 yards and five touchdowns in two shootouts against the Patriots and Rams that resulted in Chiefs losses.  Since 2017, Kansas City is 3-5 straight-up when their defense surrenders 30 points or more, a scenario Tyreek Hill thrives in as he has registered 20+ fantasy points in five of those eight matchups.

D.J. Moore: 4.06: His ceiling game of 28.7 fantasy points in a loss to the Lions was the major cause of this variance for the rookie receiver out of the University of Maryland.  His only competition at the position looks to be Curtis Samuel as he looks to build on a successful rookie campaign and possibly take the reins as the #1 receiver in Carolina.  

SMALLEST WIN/LOSS VARIANCE

Alshon Jeffery: +.07: While consistent in this metric in 2018, Alshon Jeffery has shown a more positive correlation in production with Nick Foles throwing him the football vs Carson Wentz doing so since 2017.  Whether Foles remained with the Eagles or not, Jeffery will compete for looks with Zach Ertz, Wentz’s preferred option and the team leader in receptions each season since Wentz was drafted in 2016.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN HOME GAMES

Amari Cooper: 10.37 (Cumulative with Oakland and Dallas): One of the ultimate boom or bust receivers throughout his career in Oakland, that attribute carried over when Amari Cooper was dealt to Dallas.  However, when he did erupt, it was in the friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum/AT&T Stadium as 68.46% of his receiving yards as well as seven of his eight touchdowns came in home games.  

Brandin Cooks: 8.73: He had a positive correlation in games at Gillette Stadium in his brief stay with New England but as Jared Goff’s home/road splits were drastic, so were Brandin Cooks as his +8.73 FPPG differential at the L.A. Coliseum demonstrated.  He had nearly two times as many receptions in home games at 53 compared to 27 receptions on the road in 2018.

Michael Thomas: 8.52: While the inverse occurred in 2017, Michael Thomas flourished in games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome to the tune of a +8.52 FPPG differential in games at that venue in 2018.  Drew Brees regressed back to his norm in games inside the fast-paced dome last year and that translated to a strong positive correlation in home games for both the future first ballot Hall of Famer and his trusty receiver.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN AWAY GAMES

Antonio Callaway: 8.89: Callaway was a non-factor in games at FirstEnergy Stadium as his 3.89 FPPG average in eight games played strongly suggests.  He was serviceable on road trips as he saw almost double the amount of receptions in road games as well as registering all of his five touchdowns away from Cleveland.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: 8.56: Victim of another strong correlation, JuJu was as useful in games the Steelers played outside of Pittsburgh as he was in games that they were defeated.  He posted crooked numbers in hostile territory with a floor of 14.8 fantasy points and posting 20+ fantasy points in five of eight road matchups.

Alshon Jeffery: 7.68: Like Antonio Callaway, Alshon Jeffery was another receiver that was nonexistent during the home portion of the Eagles 2018 schedule, a variance that became more extreme from 2017.  He saw 6.14 receptions and .71 touchdowns in seven road games vs 3.66 receptions and .17 touchdowns in six games at Lincoln Financial Field. 

SMALLEST HOME/ROAD VARIANCE

Curtis Samuel: +.16: He’s at worse the #3 receiving option for the Panthers behind  Christian McCaffery and D.J. Moore heading into 2019 but was the best in home/road consistency among evaluated receivers.  He was a low-ceiling fantasy option but when given additional snaps beginning in Week 12, Curtis Samuel maintained a solid floor of 11.2 fantasy points in five of those six games.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN GAMES WHEN THE RESPECTIVE TEAM IS A FAVORITE

Amari Cooper: 13.88: (Cumulative with Oakland and Dallas): Amari Cooper will have his breakout games as he has shown but Zeke being the focal point of the Dallas offense reduces his output some weeks.  Two of his three breakouts in 2018 were when his respective team entered the game as a favorite, averaging 71.2 receiving yards and 1 touchdown in four of those instances vs 40 receiving yards and 0 touchdowns in the underdog role.  

Nelson Agholor: 11.03: This variance reoccurring in 2019 would be quite the surprise as Nelson Agholor was rendered useless to the tune of .9 fantasy points in two games the Eagles went in as underdogs.  With the exception of the final two weeks, 2018 was a disappointing campaign that saw his touchdown receptions slashed in half from 2017

Allen Robinson: 6.46: The Allen Robinson that slaughtered the Eagles in the divisional round only appeared once in regular season action as his days of being drafted in the first four rounds may be over.  In fact, in PPR scoring, he finished just 1.4 fantasy points ahead of Taylor Gabriel for the WR1 on the Bears.  His variance exists largely due to the carnage he created against the Lions secondary in Week 10 last year.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL IN GAMES WHEN THE RESPECTIVE TEAM IS AN UNDERDOG

Tyreek Hill: 20.5: Since 2017, the Chiefs are 4-3 in games they enter getting points from their opponents with Tyreek Hill averaging a ridiculous 31.18 FPPG in six games in that role; he didn’t suit up Week 17 against the Broncos in 2017 as the Chiefs were locked in as the #4 seed.  He’s crossed the pylons at least one time in each of the last six instances he played in a game the Chiefs were underdogs.

Mike Williams: 11.25: Tyrell Williams departing for Oakland slots Mike Williams as the #2 wide receiver for the Chargers.  Underdog performances against the Rams and Chiefs saw the former 7th overall pick out of Clemson average eight catches for 78.5 yards and two touchdowns, a main contributor to Williams possessing this large differential.

Michael Thomas: 9.14: As Drew Brees saw a +11 FPPG differential in three games the Saints were underdogs, Michael Thomas was just as insulted in that role as he had a floor of 19.9 fantasy points in those matchups.  The Saints should be favored in nearly every game in 2019 with the exception of an NFC Championship rematch against the Rams, a secondary Michael Thomas torched for a 12/211/1 clip in Week 9.

SMALLEST FAVORITE/UNDERDOG VARIANCE

Jordy Nelson: +.29

The Raiders version of Jordy was a sad sight to behold after years of success with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.  Age and injuries have caught up with him and it’s no surprise to see him enter retirement after a successful 11-year career that netted him a Super Bowl ring in 2010.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL AGAINST TEAMS RANKED IN THE TOP HALF IN PASS DVOA

Amari Cooper: 10.29: Back for a third mention, Cooper wrecked havoc on some of the stronger secondaries as he posted 20+ fantasy point performances in five of six occurrences against defenses ranked in the top half in pass DVOA.  It’s maddening that he couldn’t put those performances together against the weaker secondaries but again, Zeke touching the ball as much as he does can be attributed to this issue.

Robert Woods: 8.29: Robert Woods was at his best when the secondaries were of the tougher variety.  While Brandin Cooks better correlated against defenses in the bottom half in pass DVOA, Woods was the opposite as he posted 87.2 yards and .5 touchdowns in 10 games against the top half vs 57.83 receiving yards and .17 touchdowns in 6 games against the bottom dwellers.  

Mike Williams: 7.67: Against 10 defenses that the Chargers faced that ranked in the top half in pass DVOA, Mike Williams saw double-digit fantasy points in PPR scoring in seven of those games.  Despite injuries that hampered his rookie season, Williams rebounded nicely and will syphon some of the 64 targets that Tyrell Williams leaves behind.

LARGEST DIFFERENTIAL AGAINST TEAMS RANKED IN THE BOTTOM HALF IN PASS DVOA

Calvin Ridley: 8.03: He was on pace for 24 touchdowns at the conclusion of Week 4, a sure sign that regression would and did strike as Calvin Ridley only had four touchdowns in the final 12 games.  He thrived against defenses in the bottom half in pass DVOA, averaging 14.02 yards per catch to complement his 61.7 receiving yards and .9 touchdowns per game vs 10.2 yards per catch, 34 receiving yards, and .17 touchdowns per game against the better half.

Christian Kirk: 6.54: Nearly an identical situation as Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk was more effective against the weaker defenses in his rookie campaign.  While Ridley knows who will be throwing him the ball in 2019, Kirk awaits to see if Josh Rosen will be traded and the Cardinals take Kyler Murray with the first overall pick in Nashville in a few weeks.

Odell Beckham Jr.: 6.54: His situation certainly improves as he moves on from an aged Eli Manning to a blossoming Baker Mayfield.  Regardless, Eli always made it a point to target OBJ throughout his time in New York, more so against the weaker secondaries that saw the former Giant average 100.33 receiving yards and .83 touchdowns per game against bottom-half pass DVOA defenses last year compared to 75 receiving yards and .17 touchdowns against stiffer competition.

SMALLEST PASS DVOA VARIANCE

Adam Thielen: It was the tale of two seasons as the first eight games saw Adam Thielen average 25.38 FPPG while that number regressed to 13.16 FPPG in the final eight.  Dalvin Cook may have been a factor as Thielen posted a 9.6/111.4/.8 clip in 5 games Cook was inactive vs a 5.91/74.18/.45 clip in 11 games Cook suited up.  Regardless, Thielen posted stellar performances against superior and inferior defenses in 2018, especially in the earlier portion of the campaign.

WHO WERE THE MOST CONSISTENT WIDE RECEIVERS OF 2018?

This portion of the article is reserved for those who demonstrated a consistency in all of the above metrics.  As the WR9 in PPR scoring, Mike Evans rebounded from a disappointing 2017 campaign and reached double-digit fantasy points in 12 of 16 contests in 2018.  With the exception of a variance just shy of three in top-half vs bottom-half pass DVOA opponents, Evans was remarkably consistent with FPPG differentials no greater than 1.25 in the other three metrics.  The Bucs move on from one offensive-minded coach in Dirk Koetter to another in Bruce Arians, one that will continue to benefit Evans moving forward.

As mentioned above, Adam Thielen performed equally well against stingy and porous secondaries.  That consistency also carried over in the other evaluated metrics with variances no higher than three fantasy points.  Thielen has benefitted from Dalvin Cook’s inability to stay healthy in his first two seasons in the league, a positive for Thielen to keep in mind as his ADP currently sits around the end of the 2nd round/beginning of the 3rd round at the time of this writing.

Darrell Henderson: 4 Star Prospect with Explosive Potential

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

Darrell Henderson (5’8”, 208), Running Back, Memphis

19 Aggregate Score (4 Star Prospect)

At 5’8 Darrell Henderson may be considered small for a running back, but don’t let the size fool you. Henderson is very good and considered by most to be in the top 5 for RBs this year. He has the complete package when it comes to the CMC/Cohen “super hybrid” backs. What that means is he won’t necessarily bowl anyone over (similar to a downhill back), but that’s not his game anyway. Henderson can operate in space, between the tackles and has good hands, so that already spells success for him at the next level.

College Production

It’s very surprising that Henderson had the success he did given the skill of the backfield. Tony Pollard (fellow 2019 draft classmate) and Patrick Taylor Jr (2020 draft class) are both NFL caliber RBs and I expect to see both drafted to NFL rosters in the 19′ and 20′ classes.

Memphis backfield production:

Patrick Taylor Jr.: 208 carries and 17 receptions for 1319 yards from scrimmage (36th in the nation in rushing yards).

Tony Pollard: 78 carries and 39 receptions for 1010 yards from scrimmage.

Darrell Henderson: 214 carries and 19 receptions for a whopping 2204 yards from scrimmage which was good for 2nd in the nation in both yards from scrimmage and rushing yards.

Henderson definitely maximized his share of the offense almost mirroring Patrick Taylor in carries and receptions. He out-shined the talent in his own backfield in a major way without so much extra chances. This is what makes him stick out as a prospect and rise up my draft board. My knock against him is that in his productive seasons (so & jr) he only played 4 top 50 defenses against the run and 8 in the top 100. The rest of his games (13) were played against defenses that were ranked 100+.

Speed & Agility: Aggregate Score: 5 (Personal Score: 5)

The only running back who ended up with a score of five in our evaluations, Darrell Henderson is one of the fastest in this draft at the position. Giving him a sliver of run room will be a mistake and he will immediately be “gone with the wind”. His change of direction is the best in this class (yes over David Montgomery) and combining that with his speed will be dangerous.

Receiving: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 3)

I don’t think his receiving chops are bad, but when you factor in how many receptions Pollard and Taylor had (53) vs his own (19), you can see how little room he had to showcase this. I still believe he can be just fine as a pass catcher in the NFL, I just gave him this score based on his lack of chance there. It may just have been that Pollard (RB/WR sleeper) was the more efficient pass catcher given that he had 40% of the receptions.

Vision: Aggregate Score: 4.6 (Personal Score: 5)

Only surpassed by David Montgomery in this metric (by 0.4 points), Darrell Henderson has vision that A LOT of these RBs in this class don’t have. Combining that with his ability to shift and burst out of the backfield , it makes him a tantalizing prospect and one worthy of being ranked in the top 3 at the position. Here’s an example of that combo that he utilizes so well:

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 2 (Personal Score: 2)

There nothing special to see here. He’s not terrible and he’s not amazing, he does his job and won’t put his playing time in jeopardy. He could use some work, but I think this skill will be elevated sooner rather than later in preparation for the draft and again once he gets drafted.

Strength: Aggregate Score: 4 (Personal Score: 4)

He has good strength for a running back but, again, it’s not his calling card. What is specifically special about his strength comes in the area of his ball carrying. He keeps a great “5 points of contact” which is considered the best way to become almost impervious to fumbles. It worked well for him and I think that’s where his strength really matters, keeping that ball to his body.

Conclusion: 1st Round

It’s obviously based on roster construction but I don’t believe he should fall outside of the first round in rookie drafts. He’s one of the best backs in this class and I firmly believe he will stay that way unless he gets drafted behind Todd Gurley or someone of that nature.

Fantasy Football Impact of the Offensive Line: Baltimore Ravens

Image result for football offensive line image

Round 3 of our Offensive Line brings us to the first focus for an east coast team: the Baltimore Ravens.

For a look at the Arizona Cardinals or the Oakland Raiders, simply click on the links.

Baltimore Ravens

One of the more intriguing teams for the approaching 2019 season is the Baltimore Ravens. Officially Joe Flacco-less, officially Mark Ingram-full. We saw Lamar Jackson be a top 10 fantasy QB from weeks 11-16. We saw Alex Collins and Gus Edwards become decent fantasy options on a weekly basis. What we didn’t see was a fantasy relevant wide receiver; the best receiver on the Ravens was John Brown with 715 yards and 5 touchdowns.

The Ravens offensive line remained mostly healthy throughout the 2018 campaign with only Alex Lewis missing any remarkable time with 3 games. They allowed 32 sacks which is an average amount. They also committed an average number of penalties.

What they didn’t do was excel.

2018 End-of-Season Starters and Their 2019 Status

Position 2018 Starter 2019 Starter Notes
Left Tackle Ronnie Stanley Ronnie Stanley One of the best LTs in 2018. Mostly healthy and consistent.
Left Guard Alex Lewis Alex Lewis Missed some games due to a neck injury. Was otherwise pretty bad.
Center Matt Skura Matt Skura A perennial practice squad player who lucked into the role. Likely to be replaced.
Right Guard Marshal Yanda Marshal Yanda One of the best RGs in the league in 2018. Returns after a largely healthy year.
Right Tackle James Hurst Orlando Brown Hurst and Brown swapped depth chart positions during the 2018 season. Currently is Brown’s role.
Tight End Nick Boyle Nick Boyle Was signed as a free agent in 2019. Boyle is effective at pass and run blocking but lives in a 4 headed monster Tight End position in Baltimore.

Current O-Line Ranking

Name Position NFL Ranking (in Position)
Ronnie Stanley Left Tackle 9
Alex Lewis Left Guard 27
Matt Skura Center 20
Marshal Yanda Right Guard 4
Orlando Brown Right Tackle 18
Nick Boyle Tight End 9
Overall Team O-Line 14
*Rankings based on ProFootballFocus.com scoring

Free Agency: Move Along, Nothing to See Here

The Baltimore Ravens made a huge wave with their signing of Mark Ingram, but have made no changes to their offensive line through free agency. Nick Boyle was signed as a Free Agent but he was already on the team in 2018.

It’s conceivable that they wanted to make more free agency moves but were strapped by the amount of cap space that they have available in addition to a number of expiring contracts in 2020. They may be considering extending some of those and will need the money available to make those moves.

NFL Draft Thoughts

The Ravens currently have 8 picks at their disposal. They will have to use them carefully because they have 7 positions of need. On the O-Line, they have a need at Left Guard and at Center. Both Alex Lewis’ and Matt Skura’s contracts expire after the season ends. Based on their performance, I do not anticipate either of them being resigned unless it is a depth move. Replacements need to be found through the draft regardless of those decisions because of their performance.

We must consider what is a greater position of need. Unfortunately for the purposes of this article, I believe the Ravens will place Wide Receiver above the inside positions of the Offensive Line. They have Willie Snead (whose contract is also expiring at the end of the season) and then there are a bunch of names that I have never seen on a fantasy football roster. Multiple mock drafts have the Ravens selecting Parris Campbell from Ohio State. If they do, he will immediately move up my preseason draft board rankings.

Their first round pick is now behind us. The Ravens do not have a second round pick. They traded it to Philadelphia as part of a package deal to get Philly’s Round One pick in 2018 which the Ravens used to draft Lamar Jackson. Now we are in the third round. Do the Ravens have a need greater than Guard and Center? Let’s assume that they do not.

The likely targets for either of the Ravens 2 third round picks are:

  • Greg Little – Tackle – Mississippi
  • Mitch Hyatt – Tackle – Clemson
  • Tyler Roemer – Tackle – San Diego State
  • Lamont Gaillard – Center – Georgia
  • Michael Jordan – Guard (but can move to Center) – Ohio State

Look for those names to be called on day 2 of the NFL Draft. If they are drafted by the Ravens, they are instantly in the conversation of starting in week 1.

One name that might still be on the board in Round 3 or 4 is Connor McGovern out of Penn State. He is another one who, like Michael Jordan, is capable of playing Center or Guard. He was an essential piece to Saquon Barkley’s amazing 2017 season at Penn State. Considering the lack of receiving talent on the Ravens roster in addition to the signing of Mark Ingram AND the proclivity of Lamar Jackson running the ball, McGovern would be a perfect fit. If the Ravens draft McGovern AND if he lands the starting role, I will move Mark Ingram higher in my preseason rankings.

2019 Thoughts

The Baltimore Ravens are on the knife’s edge. A couple of right moves and they could find themselves the AFC North champions. The Bengals are rebuilding and the Steelers are on a downward trend. The Browns appear to be a juggarnaut this year, but they have turned disappointment into a habit. A couple of missed opportunities and the Ravens will quickly start moving pieces before the trade deadline in preparation for the 2020 season.

The Ravens have a Vegas over/under of 9 wins in their 2019 campaign. They will not be able to live up to that goal without some help on the offensive line. Look for the Ravens to strike late on day 2 or early on day 3 of the NFL Draft.

Conclusion

Let’s assume that the Ravens make the right choices. They know their way to the division championship and they found it with an arguably mediocre team in 2018. If the Ravens are able to utilize their defense as it should be used, they will be able to turn their focus to the run game.

Mark Ingram will have a good fantasy year. It will be even better if the Ravens make the right decisions for their offensive line.

Lamar Jackson will continue his life of fantasy relevance. It will be even more consistent with improvements to the offensive line.

The Ravens WILL draft a wide receiver on day 1 in April. Hot take: that rookie will lead the team in receiving.

They have the means to make a fantasy owner happy. A couple of steps towards improving their offensive line will turn that good year into a GREAT one. We will be watching the draft very closely. We cannot make any further assessments until then.

Fantasy Football Impact of the Offensive Line: Oakland Raiders

Image result for football offensive line image

Round 2 of our Offensive Line focus brings us to Oakland and a review of the Raiders along with their hope for the 2019 season.

For a look at Round 1 and the Arizona Cardinals, please click here!

Oakland Raiders

The Oakland Raiders were a fantasy wasteland in 2018. Derek Carr was the 18th QB after week 16 scoring a dismal 14.3 points per game according to FantasyPros.com.

The Running Backs were dreadful. Marshawn Lynch only played in 6 games averaging 10.7 0.5 PPR points per game. After the Raiders’ bye in week 7, Doug Martin took over the lead back role and continued the mediocrity. He averaged 9.3 points per game.

Finally, the Wide Receivers felt the pain of having an under-performing Quarterback. Amari Cooper was a disappointment until he was traded to the Dallas Cowboys during the Raiders bye week. That left Jordy Nelson, Dwayne Harris, and Seth Roberts to carry the load. None of them were up to the task.

A large chunk of the failures can be placed squarely on the shoulders of Jon Gruden. Whether the misery was part of his master plan or a spotlight on how out of touch he was with the NFL in 2018, the team failed, in part, because of him.  A second part of the offensive failures could also be placed with Offensive Coordinator Greg Olson, who has not had a successful campaign with any team in over a decade.

Regardless of coaching, the team would not have had a successful offense due to the poor play of their offensive line. Kolton Miller and Brandon Parker combined for the most penalties by Tackles in the NFL. The line as a whole allowed Derek Carr to be sacked 51 times. That is not a typo. FIFTY ONE.

2018 End-of-Season Starters and Their 2019 Status

Position 2018 Starter 2019 Starter Notes
Left Tackle Kolton Miller Trent Brown After a SB win with the Patriots in 2018, Brown moves to the Raiders and is currently the highest paid Lineman in the NFL.
Left Guard Kelechi Osemele Kolton Miller Osemele moves to the Jets. Miller was terribly ineffective at LT. Moves to LG. Committed many penalties in 2018.
Center Rodney Hudson Rodney Hudson One of the best Centers in the league in 2018.
Right Guard Gabe Jackson Gabe Jackson One of the best Right Guards in the league in 2018.
Right Tackle Brandon Parker Brandon Parker Tied for 10th in the NFL for penalties. Half of his were false starts.
Tight End Jared Cook Lee Smith Cook went to the Saints. Current depth chart lists Smith #1. Uncertain if that remains after the draft.

Current O-Line Ranking

Name Position NFL Ranking (in Position)
Trent Brown Left Tackle 21
Kolton Miller Left Guard 30
Rodney Hudson Center 3
Gabe Jackson Right Guard 8
Brandon Parker Right Tackle 30
Lee Smith Tight End 3
Overall Team O-Line 19
*Rankings based on ProFootballFocus.com scoring

Free Agency: One down, one to go

As mentioned above, the Tackle position for the Oakland Raiders was the weakest in the NFL in 2018. The Raiders made strides in the right direction. On March 13, the Raiders signed unrestricted free agent Trent Brown to the biggest contract for an NFL lineman. Trent Brown spent the 2018 season with the Super Bowl winning New England Patriots. He is a consistently healthy player that adds strength to the tackle. This will allow Kolton Miller to move to the Left Guard position. That loud noise you just heard was a sigh of relief from Derek Carr. When Miller wasn’t committing penalties, he was opening doors for the opposing defense. Removing him from the outside left is a smart move.

This was a necessary move to give Derek Carr time to throw the ball to his newest targets. It will also improve the possibilities for whomever starts at Running Back in 2019.

NFL Draft Thoughts

With consistency, strength, and leadership at the Left Tackle, Center, and Right Guard positions, the Raiders need to take a long hard look at their sophomore O-Line players (Kolton Miller and Brandon Parker). Their rookie seasons were awful. The Raiders spent some impressive draft capital on those two players in 2018. Kolton Miller was their first round pick (1.15) while Brandon Parker was the first pick in the 3rd round! They will not simply forget the talent that convinced the Raiders’ main office to commit those early picks.

The truth is that the coaching staff is going to have to spend time developing the skills of those 2nd year players. While it is true that the Raiders have 11 picks including 3 first round picks, it is also true that they have severe needs at many defensive positions and at running back.

One position of need which will have an impact on the offensive line is the Tight End. Lee Smith is great at pass and rush protection but in 8 full seasons in the NFL he has surpassed 10 targets in a season only 3 times. None were higher than 13 targets. The Raiders need an offensive presence at the Tight End position.

Look no further than Noah Fant. Chad Reuter of NFL.com has Noah Fant going to the Raiders at pick 27 (Oakland’s 3rd pick of the first round). That same mock has T.J. Hockenson going to the Packers earlier in the draft. I did not see the Packers taking a Tight End there because they have more dire needs at other positions. However, some fellow writers at TheFFAnalysts.com agreed with the mock draft. “A lot of people see it as a possibility,” remarks @jplumm94. “I could see Hockenson at 12,” agreed @theFF_taters. With Hockenson off the board, the Raiders hand will be forced.

Author’s note: Since the writing of this article, the Raiders have signed Luke Willson. This has to be a depth move. Willson is another Tight End that has never had fantasy relevance. He is quite good at run and pass blocking, though.

The Tight End position will likely be taken care of early in the draft. Between that, the draft capital of the 2018 rookie offensive lineman, and the other team needs in 2019 it is quite conceivable that the Raiders will stand pat at the offensive line. At most, they may use a late round pick to add some depth.

2019 Thoughts

Here is what we know about the Raiders:

  • They’ve added some impressive receivers in Free Agency
  • They’ve added a strong player to their offensive line
  • The rookies from 2018 on the o-line were college standouts
  • Derek Carr has shown that he is able to succeed

Recently, the Raiders signed Isaiah Crowell. After this signing, it is becoming clear that the improvements at offensive line do not appear to be completed to improve the run game. Crowell’s one year deal is an indicator that they are holding out until the 2020 draft class to fill the RB need.

Instead, they will be focusing on Derek Carr and the passing game. They’ll need it. The Oakland defense gave up the most points to opposing offenses in 2018. There haven’t been any slam dunk free agency signings and their defensive issues will not be solved immediately through the draft. While the defense is in the midst of a rebuild, the offense will be playing catch up.

Conclusion

Vegas odds has the Raiders winning 5 games in 2019. With the added firepower at receiver and the strengthening of the offensive line, the Raiders will be in more close games and could squeak out some additional wins through their passing game alone. The losses will likely include some garbage time points.

What does this mean for fantasy? Derek Carr’s 2018 stats means he will not be drafted in most formats. However, I could see a likelihood that he will be a waiver wire target at times in 2019. He’s going to have production. He has talent and now he has a couple of high end targets in Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams. Throw in the possibility of a new Tight End and Derek Carr has the potential to return to his Top 10 Fantasy QB stats.

Speaking of those receivers, they will both be owned in most formats. Antonio Brown is currently the 7th Wide Receiver off the board at the 2.06 according to fantasyfootballcalculator.com. Tyrell Williams is going at the incredible fantasy value of the 14th round. Both should have very good fantasy years considering the pass protection of the offensive line and Derek Carr’s ability. If the pieces remain healthy, then Antonio Brown could remain a top 5 WR and Tyrell Williams could be a solid WR2 in fantasy.

Don’t sleep on the Oakland Raiders. But, don’t overspend on them, either. We will certainly know more after the draft.

N’Keal Harry: Possible WR1 of the NFL Draft?

Welcome to the 48 Report, a full working database including 48 of our favorite 2019 Draft Prospects. The key, however, is that we focus specifically on their ability to translate as fantasy football players. All players in the database have been/will be scored by 3 writers, and this is their article; explaining their aggregate score, as well as the score of their writer.

All categories are scored on a 1-5 scale; with 5 being the highest score a prospect can receive. The highest aggregate average scores a player can receive is 25. Articles will be posted January-April, all the way up to the draft. Ratings will be adjusted after the combine, based on measurables and after the draft, because as we all know: landing spot matters.

N’Keal Harry (6’2”, 228lbs) Wide Receiver, Arizona State

18 Aggregate Score (4-Star Prospect)

We have been pumping out article after article about the wide receivers in this draft class. It is a deep class that has a lot of people divided on who the best of the bunch is. N’Keal Harry is absolutely under consideration. A 4-star recruit out of Chandler High School in Arizona, Harry chose to remain home despite recruiting efforts from numerous big name schools. He committed to Arizona State in November of 2015.

In 3 years at Arizona State, Harry accumulated 2,889 yards on 213 catches. He scored 22 touchdowns and had an average YPC of 13.6. Along with the production, Harry made numerous highlight reel catches that put him on the radar of many NFL scouts. It’s not hard to see why the NFL is enamored with the Sun Devil WR.

Speed/Acceleration: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 3)

Before I begin to break down my thoughts on Harry, I feel the need to explain my scores. This is the first year of The 48 Report and since it’s in its infancy, the scoring isn’t necessarily refined just yet. While it is a great system for starters, I felt as if my scores may have not reflected how I truly feel about Harry because I LOVE N’Keal Harry’s game. I’ll say that Harry isn’t a burner but has solid speed. A 4.57 40 yard dash at the combine proves as much. His game speed is good and he will not be docked for this at all.

Route Running: Aggregate Score: 3.3 (Personal Score: 3)

Harry is a precise route runner. He sets up defenders to make them look foolish. He also ran quite a few screens at Arizona State, which showed their propensity to get the ball into his hands. While he could always use some polish coming out of college, Harry seems to be pretty refined in this area of his game.

Blocking: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 1)

I understand that I am a bit tougher in terms of scoring when it comes to blocking but Harry disappointed in this area. For a bigger guy who has a lot of strength (27 reps on the bench press at the combine), he isn’t as physical/aggressive as I would like him to be. He also was late at times getting to his blocks. He just did not impress me when it came to blocking for his teammates.

Handwork/Positioning: Aggregate Score: 3 (Personal Score: 3)

Harry has very solid hands and can swat defenders away with ease. He should have no problem beating press coverage in the NFL. The only thing I wish Arizona State did more of was throwing some jump balls his way. He is incredible when making contested catches and if he lands with a QB who trusts his receivers with 50/50 balls then Harry will be a problem in the NFL.

Athleticism: Aggregate Score: 4.3 (Personal Score: 4)

Harry is an athletic freak and his combine/pro day proved that. Hell his career at Arizona State proved as much. His vertical is impressive, his hands are top notch and he can get up to speed pretty well for his size. He is a physical specimen who deserves all the love he is getting heading into the draft.

Conclusion: Top 5 Fantasy Football pick

If you have the 1.01, you’re going to be considering N’Keal Harry. There is a lot of buzz around him right now and if I had to guess, he’s likely to go somewhere in the late first round. Our guys have been projecting him to the Colts with the 26th overall pick. If he lands in an ideal spot then Harry will be under serious consideration for the 1.01 in rookie drafts.